Well, this article now has a different flavor since Notre Dame got left out of the 2025 College Football Playoffs.

We were already supposed to know about the future of the College Football Playoff back on December 1st but disagreements about the format and proposals between the brokers involved led to a deadline extension. Now we’ll wait until January 23rd (the Friday after the National Championship Game) to see if an agreement can be made. From recent reports, it sounds like things are trending toward keeping the 12-team playoff for the 2026 season.

Now that we’ve seen 10 years of a 4-team playoff come and go, plus the last 2 seasons with a 12-team playoff, the impending 16-team playoff is another opportunity to re-shape college football for the better or worse. Today, I’ll discuss 4 key areas that need to be addressed moving forward.

#1 No Conference Play-In Games

This hasn’t seemed to gain a ton of traction nationally but it was discussed the most by Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti* during the summer. The idea here being that this would “balance the schedules” and “reduce the subjectivity” for the playoff committee. Never in my life has this GIF been more appropriate to use:

Are You Sure About That GIFs | Tenor

*Quick tangent, I know some would argue that a commissioner’s number one job is to financial grow their conference. But yikes, Petitti hasn’t covered himself in glory. He seems to have an inferiority complex vis-a-vis the SEC and is intent on making the Big Ten the king conference, at any cost necessary. That includes his proposed idea for a $2.4 billion private equity investment in the Big Ten which has done a little oopsie so far of nearly tearing the league apart. As we’ll discuss, keep Petitti and people like him far away from the playoff formats, please!

This type of proposal would call for the no. 1 and no. 2 seeds to play each other in the conference championship as normal (with both guaranteed a playoff bid), with the no. 3 seed facing the no. 6 seed and the no. 4 seed playing the no. 5 seed. For the Big Ten following the 2025 regular season that would give us the following:

#1 Ohio State vs. #2 Indiana
#3 Oregon vs. #6 Iowa
#4 USC vs. #5 Michigan

Do you see the problem? The cynics would argue (correctly) that this is just another way for a conference to increase its game inventory which brings in more money for the league. However, Oregon already went to Iowa and won and USC already beat Michigan! Forcing these teams to have a re-match, with the winner potentially getting into the playoffs, is disgusting. Everyone should hate this.

If the SEC were to do this, the 2025 outcome is no better:

#1 Alabama vs. #2 Georgia
#3 Ole Miss vs. #6 Oklahoma
#4 Texas A&M vs. #5 Texas

These teams all already faced each other in the regular season! We just saw Texas beat Texas A&M like 17 minutes ago! Yeah, maybe once and a while we’d get a fun and spicy matchup worth watching but with an expanded playoff these games will tend to land on too many rematches and severely devalue the regular season.

#2 The 5+11 Model is the Choice

If you’ve been paying attention to the discussions over the last several months, one of the reasons a conference play-in tournament is being floated is to bring with it the horrid proposal that would award playoff bids in the following manner:

4 (SEC)
4 (Big Ten)
3 (At-Large)
2 (ACC)
2 (Big 12)
1 (G5)

This model cannot be put into place. If it were the case for an enlarged 2025, USC would waltz right into a playoff spot. And if they did the stupid conference play-in games, the Trojans would still be fighting to beat Michigan again for that last Big Ten spot. Can you imagine a situation where Michigan loses to Ohio State to finish the regular season only to get a do-over against USC to steal a playoff bid?

The Big 12 championship wouldn’t have much meaning anymore either as BYU would secure the 2nd spot for the league even with a loss. The committee wouldn’t drop them far enough for Utah (whom the Cougars beat in the regular season) to jump them in the rankings. Indeed, BYU finished 3 spots ahead of the Utes this year in this scenario.

The 5+11 system (5 highest ranked conference champions + 11 at-large bids) is by far the best option.

In recent months, things had been trending hard towards the 5+11 system but the delay in agreeing to a new model is definitely a concern. If this sport takes another wrong turn, away from something that is such an easy layup, it’ll be such a disappointment.

#3 Embrace the Double Bye

When the 16-team playoff comes they aren’t going to do a straight bracket without byes. The toothpaste is already out of the tube and I don’t think anyone really wants to see the #1 team play (what will be in most years) a Group of 5 opponent while being 30-point favorite at minimum. That’s a waste of time, competitiveness, and entertainment.

I’ve seen Joel Klatt advocate for a bracket that includes 1st round “play-in games”, double byes, and is similar to the NFL playoffs. The NFL features only 14 teams though, so that’s where a play-in 1st round happens in this college football format. Here’s a look at this 16-team playoff using the current CFP rankings following conference championship weekend this year:

16-Team Playoff 5+12 Format Using the 2025 Season

I’m not sure what I don’t like about this format. The 1st round would be taking place this weekend (sorry Army-Navy you will have competition). The calculus of James Madison and Tulane playing Texas/Vanderbilt instead of Oregon/Ole Miss doesn’t change much but at least we’re appropriately sticking G5 teams into the play-in round and moving on from there.

The bubble teams to miss out in this format for 2025 would’ve been: Utah (10-2), USC (9-3), Arizona (9-3), Michigan (9-3), and Virginia (10-3). USC’s win over Michigan was the only ranked win for this entire group–they don’t have much to complain about.

It’s important to look at this format and compare it to the 4-4-2-2 conference model that is favored by a couple of the leagues. Some of the changes based off the 2025 season would be as follows:

  • USC jumps up into the playoffs as the 4th member of the Big Ten, as already mentioned above.
  • Virginia would get in the playoffs anyway after losing the ACC Championship Game. The same goes for BYU but they were ranked high enough to make it into the 16-team field on their own ranking anyway.
  • If they keep the rule of the 5 best conference champions, James Madison would get in over Vanderbilt, while Texas would be out due to Virginia having to be the 2nd ACC team in the field. This is some gruesome stuff. You can probably see why the SEC isn’t in favor of this model!
  • Perhaps most important, in the 4-4-2-2 model Notre Dame is effectively the last team in the tournament. Yikes.

I personally love the double bye system, although that’s worth some nuance. The first round really isn’t a full round, right? It’s basically being able to skip the 2nd round and jump right into the quarterfinals, and I’d rather that be granted to only 2 instead of 4 teams. However, in this type of system I’d really like the regular season + conference championship weekend to mean something.

In other words, for 2025 Georgia should be the #2 seed and a bye into the quarterfinals over Ohio State who lost the Big Ten Championship. Is it perfect? Nothing will be, but I feel like seeding has to matter more–in the current 12-team playoff it’s such an after thought most of the time. No one really cares that Ohio State and Indiana flip-flop spots or that Georgia doesn’t move up because 4 teams are getting a bye anyway.

#4 Ditch the MOU

In the aftermath of Notre Dame being left out of the 2025 playoffs it was reported that a Memorandum of Understanding was signed in the spring that stipulates the Fighting Irish would make the 12-team playoff automatically as long as they finish in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings–except this doesn’t go into effect until next season in 2026. If that were the case for 2025, Notre Dame would’ve bumped Miami out of the playoffs, which  might’ve been the only thing more controversial than the Irish being left out a few days ago!

Hey, so there’s this rule…

The MOU language also stipulates that if the playoffs expand to 14 teams, with an increase in 2 at-large bids, Notre Dame would get an automatic berth if they are ranked in the top 13 by the committee.

This was all done back when the talk was about expanding to 14 teams, when the past several months have been pointing in the direction of negotiating a 16-team playoff, though. Will there eventually be a new MOU for Notre Dame in a 16-team field?

It’ll be curious to see the details around any new plan. If they go with a 5+12 format, can the Irish knock out a conference champion that’s ranked below them? For example, an 8-5 Duke team that won the ACC? Can Notre Dame knock out the Group of 5 bid if they are ranked below, as well? Those seem like entirely reasonable and acceptable outcomes, and I think most of the nation would agree if even begrudgingly, but with the protections placed on conference champions this move is unlikely.

A “Notre Dame rule” that would see the Irish replace a team ranked above them seems like a bad idea. It’s going to be wildly unpopular and if we’re cynical enough might only incentivize the playoff committee to rank Notre Dame outside the “rule” to avoid such chaos. Some Notre Dame fans may think the rule is awesome, and maybe they’re right, but if the playoff eventually moves to 11 at-large bids I would have to consider such a rule being counterproductive.

During his post-season press conference on Tuesday, Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua said that the MOU is in place for the latest CFP extension on ESPN (2024-25 through 2031-32) and that he views it as “protection” for the Fighting Irish who would still have to prove it on the field. That’s fair enough.

He also spoke about wanting a 16-team field in a 5+11 format with plenty of at-large bids as the best way forward to have the right narratives in the playoffs while protecting the regular season which makes college football special. While things have been at a fever pitch over the last couple days, with dreams of leaving the ACC and charting a new course for Notre Dame athletics, I think the measured approach right now is to make sure an enlarged playoff is created that allows the Irish to compete for a National Championship in a way that reduces the ability of the CFP to play the games they did in 2025.