Identifying the sneaky good non-conference college football games with upset potential, high entertainment value, or intriguing story lines.
North Dakota State at Iowa
Craig Bohl left NDSU after the 2013 season but the Bison kept rumbling on without missing a beat. Heading into 2016, North Dakota State has to replace 2nd overall NFL Draft pick Carson “Don’t Call Me Andy Dalton” Wentz. Can they continue to win at the highest level? Well, Wentz did miss half of their games last year and the Bison still made it to the FCS National Championship Game again.
Will North Dakota State run out of steam? Wentz or no Wentz it doesn’t seem like they’re slowing down any time soon. The Bison have won 5 straight National Titles, are 71-5 since 2011, and clearly are not scared of FBS opponents. In fact, FBS opponents should be afraid of the Bison I’d say. We talk a lot about Notre Dame scheduling “no-win” games like Navy yet NDSU is like that type of a game on steroids.
No one wants to lose to a FCS team!
So, Iowa hosts North Dakota State in week 3 and it’s definitely on my radar as a sneaky good game. Most think that the Hawkeyes will follow up last year’s 12-2 season with another strong campaign. For example, Phil Steele has Iowa 20th in his pre-season Power Poll.
Adding fuel to this sneaky good game is that Iowa has to deal with pesky in-state rival Iowa State the week prior. That’ll be a Cyclone team feeling good about their new head coach Matt Campbell, too. Additionally, no matter the circumstances (throw out the records!) Iowa State typically gives Iowa hell each year and have won 3 out of the last 5 meetings in the rivalry.
Further, with Wentz’ injury last year sophomore quarterback Easton Stick (how is this guy not a hockey player?) got some much needed experience and was able to keep the offense moving. He finished 2015 with 1,642 total yards, 18 touchdowns with 4 interceptions and will enjoy having NDSU’s top two rushers and top two wideouts returning this fall.
The Hawkeyes could potentially shut this nonsense down due to their defense. Eight starters return from a unit that finished a respectable 24th in FEI defense last year. Still, this isn’t a situation where a smaller school could unleash a huge upset (like the first two games in this series). Iowa had a nice season last fall but quarterback C.J. Beathard running the show shouldn’t strike much fear into many opponents after their offense totaled 39 points against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Stanford last year.
Did you know North Dakota State is on a 5-game winning streak against FBS opponents, 4 of whom reside in the Power 5 conferences? True, none of those opponents were as good as 2016 Iowa is likely to be, but again, I’m not real comfortable speaking about the Hawkeyes like they are so bulletproof. In fact, right now I’d stick to an outright victory by North Dakota State inside Kinnick Stadium. It’s almost August, time to start calling some shots.
Great call. Iowa is better, but this strikes me as similar to the 2007 Michigan-Appalachian State match-up. I like Andy Staples at SI, and I know what he was going for with this, but still – he called Appy State’s upset win “maybe the biggest in the history of the sport,” and I think that does them a disservice. They were at the beginning of a third consecutive national championship season and fielded a team for that game that would generate three NFL draft picks, including a pair of first-day receivers. They were much more like a mid-level Power 5 team than, say, Western Carolina (a favorite opponent for Alabama) or Presbyterian (on Florida’s schedule this year).
I think that Appalachian State team is a good analogue for this North Dakota State team, and while I think 2016 Iowa will likely be better than 2007 Michigan, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see a dogfight or even an outright Bison win in this one.
I’m more into Bauer sticks than Easton. This is the one I’ve been using the last two seasons:
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/shopping?q=tbn:ANd9GcR5hQIx6bb2WwIgGMi7944LA-Zxfr6BR0HySV_nfgMXVJ8RfDUl&usqp=CAE
WRT
unbeaten IowaI agree that should be a fun, and possibly trap game for them.Smart man, Bauer is the best.
With how good NDSU is why do they stay FCS. I personally think they are better than South Dakota by a fair margin, and SD is FBS. Is it because they would not be the same program in the FBS or would they be just good enough to compete in every game but end up 5-7?? The should join one of the non power 5’s and become the next Boise State. However I may say that, but I do love rooting for the smaller underdog programs when not cheering on the Irish.
South Dakota State is also FCS. They’re in the same conference as NDSU.
Why do FBS teams keep scheduling them? You’re right, I think taking them straight up at Iowa right now wouldn’t be a bad bet at all. There’s no upside for Iowa here; they win, who cares. They lose, it’s a horrible loss. If our matchup with Navy is a lose-lose proposition, then I don’t even know how to describe this.
This is just a guess, and one that is probably wrong, and probably easy to fact check, but it’s somewhere over a hundred degrees and being correct isn’t foremost on my mind. Maybe NDSU is willing to take a smaller check than other FCS schools? You’re spot on about it being lose-lose for an FBS team…NDSU must know that and might have to go the extra mile to schedule big time FBS programs.