5 Duke Blue Devils vs. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

9PM, ESPN

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Duke Blue Devils both beat the odds to advance to Saturday’s ACC Tournament final. KenPom gave them the 5th and 6th best odds, respectively, to make it to this point. Now they will meet for the right to become 2017 ACC Champions.

To get to this point, Duke has won two absolute thrillers, coming back from double-digits to stun both Louisville and North Carolina. The Duke of the second halves of both those games is the version of Duke that everyone had as preseason number one and clear title favorite. Make no mistake about it; this has been an impressive run to not only play the extra Wednesday game (easy win over Clemson) but to then beat two top ten teams in such dramatic fashion.

Duke has an outstanding tournament resume and have beaten more quality teams that most if not every team in the country. They have disappointed a bit based on their preseason hype, but they are easily one of the few favorites to win the national title, just like most predicted before the season tipped off.

Second Half Runs

Duke’s second half against UNC reminded me so much of Notre Dame’s run against the Tar Heels in the 2015 ACC Championship game. Then, the Irish went on a 24-2 run to win the title; on Friday night, Duke went on a 20-4 run that carried them to a dramatic turnaround victory. The Blue Devils overcame a 13-point deficit and many double-digit deficits throughout the first 25 minutes or so. They were excellent from behind the arc but felt like every possession was exactly the shot they wanted.

The Jayson Tatum-Luke Kennard-Grayson Allen trio is the best in the nation when Allen has his head on straight. Those three combined for 62 against UNC (and 67! against Louisville!), and Allen’s shooting in the first was the only reason they were even remotely in the game.

Interestingly, the Blue Devils have also seen some nice contributions from Harry Giles, who finally has started to show the massive potential and hype he entered with this season. Frank Jackson is also dangerous and Amile Jefferson does all sorts of big man glue-guy things.

This is a fascinating match-up, with both teams running similarly small with short benches and just tremendously efficient offenses. Here are a few important things to watch that might go a long way towards deciding the championship game.

Keys to the Game

Good Grayson? – Grayson Allen has been quite an enigma for Duke all season. When he’s good, he is one of the best players in the country. When he’s not, he’s liable to unravel in ways we’ve seldom seen from elite college basketball players. He was a trainwreck against Clemson on Wednesday and had to be sat down for most of it by Coach K. The preseason player of the year is coming off the bench now for Duke, although we’ll see if it remains that way for the final given his performance Friday night. If Allen can heat up early, it would not surprise to see Duke get to 90. If he doesn’t, then that heaps a whole lot of pressure on Kennard and Tatum to shoulder the load.

Who Guards Bonzie? – The answer might very well be the aforementioned Giles, although I think the praise for him Friday night went a little overboard. He had a nice game from a role player, not much more than that. But do you trust a freshman with not much to his resume to guard the junior all-ACC forward? And Duke’s frontline beyond Giles and Jefferson is very thin; can Bonzie get either or both in foul trouble and thin them out even more?

You have to imagine Bonzie will get his 20, but there is a very real chance he approaches his 31-point effort in Durham last year. If that happens, Duke is really going to have to shut down the rest of Notre Dame’s big 4. The battle on the boards is also going to be fascinating here, as neither team is great in this category but could carve out a nice advantage.

Fatigue Factor – Neither team goes very deep, and Duke had to play an extra game on Wednesday. Does their fourth game in four days (especially given how dramatic they’ve been) catch up to them? And the Irish have asked a lot of their big 4 the last two nights. Do they have the same defensive intensity that they’ve brought to Brooklyn thus far? Can Steve Vasturia run the offense like he did on Friday while still drawing the impossible defensive assignment of Allen, Kennard, or Tatum? You’d have to think this factor favors Notre Dame. But you really never know how guys will respond in the heat of the moment. It’s worth noting that no team has ever won the ACC Tournament without the double-bye, so Duke is going for a little bit of history there.

Final Take

Well, I really didn’t see this final coming. I thought Notre Dame might be able to get here, but largely as a function of the bracket working out in their favor. But Duke? No way. I can’t believe they beat Louisville and UNC, especially in the fashion that they did. Now they have another ranked team in front of them. If they make it through this gauntlet, I, along with the rest of the country, will be mighty tempted to just go ahead and pencil the Blue Devils into the national championship game in my bracket.

That said, it’s hard to imagine that a team of 6.5 guys doesn’t start to wear out Saturday night. 4 games in 4 days? Bouncing back after a dramatic win against your biggest rival? I mean, it’s not like Notre Dame has just been sitting around or anything, but that one extra game just seems monumental to me, and the Irish haven’t exactly have the emotional rollercoaster Duke has. Something about them though just doesn’t seem like it will be a problem for them, though. They look locked in and really motivated to come away with this title.

The Irish do, too. They are some missed free throws away from a pair of double-digit wins against ranked opponents to get to this point. Their path has been easier than Duke’s, to be sure. But it’s still incredibly impressive that one win was so comfortable and the other was comfortable-adjacent. Notre Dame looks good, and at the right time.

I really don’t know what to think of this one. My heart obviously goes to the Irish, and my head says no one has won this tournament without the double-bye for a reason. There’s also the cosmic fact that every game in this tournament has held to the same exact seed as the 2015 ACC Tournament. The 3 seed has to win this one, too, right? But the other part of me is saying, “oh crap, they’re finally that preseason number one team, aren’t they?”

This should be an incredible ACC Final. This would just vault the Notre Dame program to a whole new level, wouldn’t it? This team, that was supposed to be something like a bubble team, winning the ACC? For the 2nd time in 3 years? What an opportunity. I’m beside myself right now. I don’t even have a prediction. It’s just an unbelievable opportunity for this program and, as a basketball fan, a chance to see a lot of offensive fireworks. I can’t wait for this one. Go Irish. Beat Duke. I’m nervous as hell already.