In the summer of 2014 the University of Notre Dame walked away from its 17-year relationship with Adidas at a time when–especially domestically in the United States–the German outfitter was at one of its lowest points in company history. In the preceding months as news broke that the Fighting Irish would be moving on to a new apparel provider the message was nearly unanimous:

Anyone but Adidas.

It’s been a long two and a half years later and the fortunes for Adidas are a lot different at the present moment. Over the holiday’s Adidas’ latest advertising spot “Calling all Creators” was a clever way of showcasing the companies turn around to become cool again.

A couple of funny things from the commercial. One, that Lionel Messi–the unquestioned most famous athlete in Adidas’ repertoire making nearly $100 million per year–doesn’t speak a single word* and two, the ad doesn’t feature Kanye West.  As Notre Dame was moving on from Adidas in the fall of 2014 the mercurial West was in the final planning stages of his “Yeezy” sneakers which have been a huge driver in making Adidas grow in popularity in recent years.

*I’m pretty sure most of these people (or no one?) were in the same room together shooting this commercial and Messi also doesn’t speak English all that well so it could’ve been awkward if he did say something. 

When Notre Dame signed with Under Armour officially on July 1, 2014 the Baltimore-based company was seemingly on a completely different trajectory than Adidas. The latter company historically on solid footing in the international market was was sagging incredibly in North America. In comparison, Under Armour was still a minnow internationally but quickly gobbling up market share, literally by the month, within the United States.

Notre Dame’s deal with Under Armour also reportedly included stock options which at the time looked like a genius move for the school–in addition to setting the new bar for the richest apparel deal in college sports. A couple of years later, and Notre Dame has fallen to the 6th largest contract on an annual basis behind Wisconsin (Under Armour), Michigan (Nike), Texas (Nike), Ohio State (Nike), and UCLA’s recent and ridiculous 12-year, $280 million deal with Under Armour.

For a period of several years UA was posting incredible growth and seemed poised for a major takeover–and as seen above they have definitely been acting like it when signing new college apparel deals. When they passed Adidas in the American apparel market in January 2015 it was one of those shots heard ’round the world in the business community.

That U.S. advantage lasted 21 months for Under Armour before Adidas re-took the No. 2 spot behind Nike.

The issue for Under Armour was their situation in the market as a still-small-ish company once their massive growth slowed down. UA is hovering around $4 billion in revenue for 2017 while Adidas is inching closer to $24 billion to Nike’s $35 billion.

Especially since 2014, Under Armour was rapidly expanding into new waters (women’s apparel, increased concentration on footwear, international markets, and especially fitness technology) and it seemed like an upward trend would never end.

However, UA’s operating margin has been falling for 3 years and despite continued rises in revenue their net income fell sharply in 2017. Several months ago, Under Armour announced its first quarterly loss and the stock has tanked all year long. For all intents and purposes the major growth is gone, perhaps forever. In the most simple terms, UA has a lot of money tied up all over the place ($23.3 million per year to UCLA!??) that even with normalized growth they still might be in trouble long-term. The financial firm Susquehanna is projecting Under Armour’s stock to fall an additional 28% over 2018 citing poor brand management and cheapening of the brand by opening up its products to the likes of Kohl’s and DSW.

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Something I find interesting is what makes something cool in the apparel business or how cool is manufactured in this country. It’s tough to argue otherwise that in the United States the industry is defined–or perhaps heavily led–by black urban culture. To quote Sin LaSalle from the 2005 movie “Be Cool” who said:

“You know we’ve influenced nearly every facet of white America… from our music to our style of dress. Not to mention your basic imitation of our sense of cool, walk, talk, dress, mannerisms. We enrich your very existence.”

Take a look at some of Under Armour’s most high-profile endorsements for athletes, including Tom Brady, Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, Buster Posey, Jordan Spieth, Lindsey Vonn, Michael Phelps, and Andy Murray. This collection of people feels like they’d be better served promoting life insurance than setting trends in the apparel business. It’s extremely White People, as is pivoting to Kohl’s it’s just not cool whichever way you slice it.

Got new Under Armour hoodies for Christmas.

Deep down, I believe this is why Under Armour felt very comfortable for the University of Notre Dame and most of its fan base, an overwhelmingly white, middle to upper-middle class fan base. The UA brand was expanding into suburbs, its hoodies latching on to 20-somethings, women, and hunters all across the country. It was a lot like witnessing white culture becoming cool in the apparel business, and it definitely felt different.

This isn’t to exclude Under Armour’s athletes of color including Julio Jones, Cam Newton, Patrick Peterson, and Steph Curry, plus the bi-racial Dwayne Johnson and Aaron Judge. That’s an impressive list but it’s fairly limited in scope–not helping matters is tennis star Sloane Stephens recently switching to Nike. Particularly in the sport of basketball–the one American sport that has defined cool in America more than any other–the second most high-profile Under Armour athlete behind Curry is either Patty Mills or rookie Dennis Smith, Jr.

Beginning with the 2019 season Under Armour will become the official apparel partner for Major League Baseball which sounds good but isn’t likely helping any coolness factor. Participation in youth baseball has been on a slow downward trend and the percent of African-Americans in the game is as low as its been since the mid 1950’s.

You may be asking if any of this really matters to you and the answer is likely not. For college fans the apparel provider almost exclusively comes down to 2 things: sticking to tradition with uniforms and prices. Tangentially, fit, style, and how the apparel provider affects recruiting matter but on a secondary level.

Outside of the college bubble–and most related to recruiting–is the power and sway sneakers hold over the fashion in sports apparel. It’s here where Adidas has been surging forward in a big way. Led by Ultraboosts, Primeknits, Tubular Shadows, in combination with a rise in the traditional Superstars, it’s the Adidas sneakers that are leading the charge in collaboration with their lifestyle clothing.

If it matters to Notre Dame–and it may very well not–they will have to monitor how well Under Armour recovers soon and changes their ability to be cool in the future. UA CEO Kevin Plank is well aware stating almost a year ago that, “we need to become more fashion.” Like most of the company their sneakers sales were growing quickly in recent years before coming to a grinding halt over the last 18 months.

Top 7 US Sneaker Market Share

Nike 34.7%
Adidas 13.0%
Jordan 12.1%
Skechers 6.3%
New Balance 3.7%
Converse 3.6%
Under Armour 2.4%

For Under Armour, as mentioned above, their basketball sneaker line is tied to Steph Curry who found major success with his Curry 1 and Curry 2 offerings but were followed up by a disappointing Curry 3 while the new Curry 4 is off to a similar slow start in sales. That’s a precarious place to be for an athlete who will be turning 30 in a couple months.

When Notre Dame signed with Under Armour I was skeptical for two reasons. One, being signed to a large contract and/or receiving “favored status” with UA was something that wouldn’t last. After 3 seasons, we’ve already seen UCLA blow Notre Dame’s money out of the water. Secondly, we have mounting evidence that Under Armour’s quest to be cool is going to be a much higher climb for a company that is already over 20 years old and still hasn’t made a significant dent in the footwear market.

The sports apparel business is a fickle and a lot can change over the next 6 years when Notre Dame’s contract is up, assuming no extension is signed. It was thought unbelievable not too long ago but maybe a return to Adidas isn’t that far fetched.