Previewing a Senior Day showdown between Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. The Hokies are very good defensively, but are cracks starting to emerge? Can the Irish keep their long-shot bowl hopes alive?
If looking for additional information on the statistics and terms used here, great starting points are Football Studyhall’s Advanced Stats Glossary, Bill Connelly’s Five Factors, and Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings.
Virginia Tech Offense vs Notre Dame Defense
A fast, efficient passing attack
The Irish defense has had a nice break from the hurry-up, no-huddle offense after starting the year with Texas, Duke, and Syracuse in the first five games (all three top-20 teams in adjusted pace). With the service academies, NC State in a hurricane, and a Miami team that’s really deliberate, we haven’t had to worry about pace for a while, but it should go back to the ultra-quick level on Saturday, assuming the weather isn’t an issue for Justin Fuente doing what he wants to do.
The Hokies rank 13th in adjusted pace, and will throw a lot on first down (85th in standard downs run rate) then mix it up by running a good deal on passing downs (12th in passing downs run rate). Some of those runs are scrambles by Jerod Evans, who is the Hokies leading rusher (720 yards on 6.5 YPC), but he’s also dangerous out of the zone read. Overall though, runs by RBs have not gone very well for the Blacksburg-ites, and that’s been strength of the Notre Dame defense.
So the Hokies have been much better passing than running, as you can see above. They’ve been inefficient running the ball (106th in rushing success rate), mostly due to struggles in power run situations (108th power success rate) and too many runs for zero or negative yards (21.6% stuff rate, 106th in FBS). This looks like a great opportunity for Jarron Jones to get back to things he likes and hopefully feast like he did against Miami.
Through the air, the Hokies haven’t been much more efficient than explosive, ranking 18th in passing success rate but just 71st in Passing IsoPPP. The key to that efficiency has been success on passing downs, where the VT offense ranks 20th overall in PD S&P+ and 14th in PD Success Rate. Fuente’s offense spreads out dangerous receivers, forcing you to cover three very good options well (more on this in a second) and also the threat of an Evans run or scramble.
Slow down the “Big 3” Receivers
If you haven’t read about it already, get ready to hear a ton of love for Hokie receivers during the NBC telecast this weekend. Isaiah Ford is an All-ACC performer with good size (6’2) and speed, Cam Phillips is #9 in the conference in receiving yards as a #2 target, and TE Bucky Hodges already has over 500 yards as well on 14.3 yards per catch.
These three receivers account for a whopping 73.3% of all Virginia Tech’s targets (Ford alone receives over 1/3 of all pass attempts) and 76% of the Hokies passing yardage. For comparison’s sake, Notre Dame’s top three receivers (ESB, Hunter, and Stepherson) account for 56.4% of targets.
Can Notre Dame’s improving pass defense manage to slow down this group? Miami’s tight ends burned the Irish defense in the second half of their last home game, and Cole Luke and company will need to be on their A-game this week. There will be a lot of pressure on an Irish secondary in back to back weeks against the most talented receivers they’ll see all season.
Notre Dame Offense vs Virginia Tech Defense
Run Kizer Run
Another year, another very good Virginia Tech defense under Bud Foster. The Hokies are against a very disruptive defense, ranking 6th in FBS in havoc rate, led by the DL (9th) and DB’s (22nd). Against the run the VT defense has been excellent in areas their own offense has struggled – power runs and stuff rate. The defensive line will be active in the Irish backfield a few times in this game, although the offensive line has shown some quiet improvement since the bye week.
The Achilles heel of Foster’s defense this season has been mobile quarterbacks. In games where the defense has struggled, opposing QBs have run wild, and these guys weren’t Lamar Jackson. Joshua Dobbs: 12 carries, 116 yards. Eric Dungey: 23 rushes, 108 yards. Daniel Jones: 15 for 122 yards.
If it had been a consideration to limit Kizer’s runs this year to avoid wearing him down or injury, this is the game to turn him loose in the run game. The Virginia Tech defense has been solid limiting efficiency (28th in opponent rushing success rate) but given up a few big runs (85th in Rushing IsoPPP defense), so having the quarterback as a threat on the ground may be key to breaking a big play.
Passing Downs are a Problem
The Hokies have had excellent corners for what seems like a million years running, and that continues in 2016 with a defense that ranks 6th nationally against the pass. Foster’s group is decent rushing the passer but mostly just shuts down passing lanes, holding opponents to a 32.8% success rate through the air (also 6th).
Virginia Tech actually ranks just 44th on standard downs defense but is 3rd on passing downs – again, they just don’t give up many conversions through the air. Opponents only have had success on 19.6% of passing downs, which is behind only Michigan, Alabama, and Boston College.
As a result the Hokies force a ton of three and outs – 40% of opponent drives end with zero first down conversions, good for 8th nationally. Kizer and the offense will have to avoid penalties, negative plays, and starting downs with two incompletions. Converting a bunch of 3rd and longs simply isn’t happening against this defense.
Predictions:
S&P+: Notre Dame 27, Virginia Tech 26
FEI: Notre Dame 26, Virginia Tech 25
Now for a bonus chart!
MB: Notre Dame 29, Virginia Tech 21. I’m feeling frisky about this team returning to play a more traditional type of offense, good vibes for senior day, and an opportunity for Kizer to have a big day with his legs. The Hokies are ultra-dangerous when playing well, but they’ve had one great, one mediocre, and three bad performances in their last five games. Georgia Tech just ran for 300 yards on them, Syracuse and Pitt gained around 8 yards per play, and I think the Irish can score on the Tech defense with a good game plan.
Are we sure they’re “Blacksburg-ites?”
I vote for “Blacksburgwegians.”
“I think the Irish can score on the Tech defense with a good game plan”
What about this year would indicate that a good game plan is in the cards?
It’s gonna be snowy tomorrow… so time to throw the ball! /BK’d
Is this the first snowy senior day since Weis’ last year?
Not ominous at all, nope.
That was actually Senior Day of Weis’s second-to-last year… and my last game as an ND student! We had such fun pelting each other with snowballs while watching a crap ND team lose to a crap-er Syracuse. Ah, memories.
That does seem to fit the “this is 2008 all over again” narrative, though. Maybe this time we’ll learn the lesson and just go ahead and fire the coach now instead of waste another year. Doubtful, but there’s hope!
BYU 2013 was snowy, wasn’t it?
Maybe I’m drinking the Kool Aid, but we started out up 20-0 on Miami (with some very good offensive play-calling), scored on 5 of 6 possessions against Navy, and on our first six possessions against Army. There’s been some ugly moments in game-planning and adjustments, but I’m hopeful (and encouraged by a longer term track record of success before 2016) that we can find some weaknesses, like QB runs, to exploit.
Counterpoint: ND starts fast because of the 20 or so scripted plays used at the beginning of the game, then the triple-OC combination can’t call creative enough plays for the rest of the game.
Works cited: http://notredame.247sports.com/Article/Scripting-plays-key-to-fast-starts-for-Irish-offense-49023685