An inefficient Notre Dame offense reliant on explosive plays through the air met up with an elite passing defense, and Cincinnati’s early turnovers and passing attack late held off the Irish for a massive win. While the game was full of self-inflicted errors at home for ND, Cincinnati wasn’t perfect either, squandering many scoring chances but creating enough explosive passing plays at key points to win both the efficiency and yards per play battles handily. After a disastrous quarterback play in the first half, Irish fans will have to hope Drew Pyne’s second-half performance is a sign he can breathe new life into the offense. But as with Jack Coan, he’ll have to deal with constant pressure, a non-threatening run game, and balance shots at big plays with turnover avoidance that can sink this wobbly Notre Dame team.

No garbage time in this close contest; only end of half possessions and kneel-downs were excluded from the data.

Confused? Check out this handy advanced stats glossary here or reach out in the comments.

Note: This week trying a new format weaving the same weekly stats you know and love into the storylines instead of separating things by the different categories. Feedback on this format versus the usual is very much appreciated.

Did Notre Dame really beat themselves?

One of the most useful applications of advanced stats is the ability to look back on a game and uncover how much the winner really outplayed the loser (or if they really did at all!). How much did elements that can be random but swing a game (like explosive plays, turnovers, or special teams) dictate the outcome? How do the teams compare in the core phases of the game (efficient offenses, number of scoring chances created)? Was there any element of the game script with a team building an early lead, significant injuries, or garbage time that changed the path to the final score?

Immediately after the loss to Cincinnati, the idea popped up that this was a winnable game the Irish lost with self-inflicted errors. And there’s certainly truth to that – from the costly turnovers to start the game to QB mismanagement and uncharacteristic penalties. But it’s also a convenient narrative that ignores Luke Fickell’s team winning in each phase of the game no matter how you parse the numbers. Even when Drew Pyne injected life into the Irish offense, Cincinnati still was more efficient and explosive. Even if you remove some of the scoring chances gifted by Notre Dame turnovers, the Bearcats still created more.

And if we’re going to start revising what could and should have happened for the Irish in an imaginary clean first half, we also need to acknowledge Cincinnati’s easy improvements. The Bearcats created seven scoring opportunities in 12 possessions, and four of those chances resulted in a grand total of three points. If not for the offense stalling out, a costly strip sack where Desmond Ridder held on to the ball too long, and some #collegekickers misses, Cincinnati could have avoided the temporary 4th quarter drama.

The visitors were very close to hanging 35 points on a Notre Dame team that had no prayer of scoring enough to keep up. Cincinnati finished with a margin of +2 yards per play and +8.3% efficiency. The Irish may have managed to carve a brief path to an upset capitalizing on a crucial turnover and missed kicks or played a tighter game capitalizing on the early defensive success. Still, they weren’t the better team in any phase.

Maybe the most surprising big-picture development of the game was Ridder’s ability to find passing windows in the soft underbelly of Notre Dame’s passing defense. While the most talented opposing QB the Irish have faced, Ridder struggled historically against solid defenses. But Mike Denbrock and the Bearcats could find some space with Alec Pierce beating Clarence Lewis for some long gains and some well-designed plays to get tight ends down the seam.

It’s too early to pull fire alarms on the passing coverage – Cincinnati was just 2 of 11 on 3rd downs, and the Irish defense was impressive early. But Ridder’s performance was more confirmation that soft spots in the secondary still exist despite strong performances against Big Ten passing attacks. Marcus Freeman will have to problem-solve as the next three games will bring three excellent receivers in Tre Turner, Drake London, and Josh Downs.

Building offense on a cracked foundation

After finishing with less than four yards per play against Wisconsin, the Notre Dame offense again struggled against an elite defense. Before delving into spins on the random wheel of quarterbacks, the issues start on the ground where the Irish aren’t efficient or explosive regardless of opponent. Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree are so talented it feels like Tommy Rees feels obligated in each game to give them early carries and probe if this is the matchup or adjustments that can finally break through. But predictably, against the tough Cincinnati defense, Notre Dame runs were equally likely to be stuffed as successful (26.9%).

What’s striking about the decline for Williams and Tyree’s numbers is that it’s across nearly every metric. It’s not as if on the few times they find success they’re routinely breaking long runs – Williams managed to escape for a long touchdown each against Toledo and Purdue, but these have been the exception to the rule. Tyree has a long carry of 12 yards. Kyren broke the two 40+ yarders in the first two home games, but the 10-20 yard runs that fueled much of the 2020 offense have entirely evaporated. As an aside, this is a good case study in how little running backs can control in even some of these more in-depth rushing stats.

Notre Dame had a relatively even split on early downs of 25 rushes and 28 passes despite these struggles. Those runs averaged 3.6 yards per play and led to a 28% success rate; passes weren’t light-years better but improved those numbers to 4.5 yards per play and a 36% success rate (5.6 / 36% with Pyne). The offense certainly can’t abandon the run game entirely, but close to a 50/50 split, especially against better defenses, appears to be way more of a commitment to a struggling ground game than optimal. With the two most formidable defenses on the schedule behind him, it’s a massive question if Rees remains stubborn probing on the ground on early downs. Will he continue to try to get his RB tandem touches and take pressure off an unsteady  QB position? Or will eventually embrace the spread-it-out / air-it-out approach?

Back on the QB carousel to salvage the offense

For a while longer, it feels like Ian Book, former 3* QB installed midseason and who had to fend off a blue-chip prospect behind him, will be the most normal quarterback experience of the Brian Kelly era. While nothing is official after a second consecutive game coming in off the bench and outproducing Coan, this seems like Drew Pyne’s job.

It’s worth noting that the Pyne experience, like with Coan and Buchner, is going to be a rollercoaster. In his small sample of throws, Pyne has thrown a lot of contested passes. Many of these have been sorely needed to give receivers a chance and tap into the offensive upside, like the touchdown pass to Lenzy. But seven of his 26 pass attempts have been broken up by defenders, a high rate that will lead to interceptions sooner rather than later. Any quarterback will take sacks with this amount of pressure; Pyne’s just may feel more aesthetically pleasing than Coan’s.

Pyne will also have to walk a tricky tightrope measuring risk versus reward early in his career. The passing game necessarily has to be the engine of the Irish offense and score the 20-30 points needed each game to win. Despite all the skill position talent, it’s simply not realistic at this point to expect a wealth of scoring opportunities each game, so the offense has to maximize their chances in opponent field position and creating big plays when opportunities arise. But as the Cincinnati game demonstrated, the offensive inconsistency paired with a good (but not dominant) defense means that the offense absolutely can’t turn the ball over multiple times either. Rees and Pyne will have to make good decisions so that the drives that aren’t working out do no harm, yet they still can generate enough offense to win.

Those decisions will be especially critical on third downs. Against the Bearcats, the Irish averaged 8.9 yards to go in these spots, which makes converting 6 of 17 opportunities far more impressive. If there’s any upside to this situation, the learning curve for Pyne and some of the young Irish receivers may be rapidly accelerated, especially if Joe Wilkins misses significant time and Michael Mayer is limited. Throw in the Joe Alt timeline continuing at an insane rate – from the way the staff discusses him, he seemed like a shoo-in for a tackle spot next season even if redshirting this year – and the “play the kids, this is a rebuilding year” advocates may be getting what they hoped for out of necessity.

Where do the Irish go now?

A quick note on the recurring topic of Irish home crowds and worries about visiting fans – I’m not sure why people feel so much angst on this topic, but it always feels like a reactive doubling-down when there’s a loss that this is a huge problem. Notre Dame is always going to be susceptible to this sort of thing with a spread-out fanbase and local season-ticket holder base that’s smaller or arguably more casual than a lot of other places.

For a Cincinnati fan, this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. To have the team at this level, ranked top-ten nationally playing in South Bend, it’s hard to put a price tag on that kind of experience and it’s an easy trip.  Meanwhile, for Notre Dame fans planning on trips this offseason, this was either the third or fourth biggest draw depending on how you feel about the Shamrock Series game and UNC? (With perfect 20/20 hindsight, this probably should have been a night game and UNC an afternoon kick). In the modern era, there will always be a good percentage of tickets available on the secondary market, and it’s just not realistic that Notre Dame fans are going to outspend away fans unless the matchup becomes a can’t-miss showdown.

 

Zooming out, in a year with exceptional parity, the Irish are in a massive tier of flawed but talented teams. Top 20? Top 40? How much reliable separation is there between Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Iowa State, or UCLA? More than usual it seems like on any given weekend any of these teams can take each other out.

Wherever Notre Dame stands, the inability to separate from opponents has been a consistent theme. The Irish played FSU evenly, had their most separation against Toledo but nearly lost thanks to turnovers, were less efficient than Purdue, and had fewer yards per play than Wisconsin. The offensive struggles will translate into low-scoring games where it’s easy for a turnover, explosive play, or penalties to make things tight. Play enough one-possession games and eventually, you’ll drop a few. It’s an uncomfortable development for a team this talented that suddenly there’s the chance the Irish offense could be the weakest unit on the field in many games remaining on the schedule.

The heart attack games aren’t ending. But the defense under Freeman can continue to gel, and Pyne has a shot to raise the offensive floor. Brian Kelly’s goal will be to grind out as many of those close games as possible, keep hope alive for a major bowl game, and ensure that future recruiting momentum doesn’t stall. Extending the double-digit win streak in a rebuilding year would further solidify Notre Dame’s place toward the top of the tier just after the perennial playoff teams; a slide down to 8-4 might signify the Irish aren’t as separated from the pack as their 2018 and 2020 playoff appearances might imply.