Going over Notre Dame’s dramatic comeback win over LSU in Orlando – where did Ian Book give the Irish passing attack some much needed momentum? And how did Notre Dame counter a -2 turnover margin and rough day converting scoring opportunities?
The Basics
As expected, this was a close, intense game from start to finish. It wasn’t always pretty, especially in the first half, but the Irish and Tigers were in a dead-heat in terms of generating yardage and scoring opportunities. With the game tight throughout, garbage time was not a factor for this review.
Explosiveness
On a per play basis, the Irish held a slight edge in yards per play and were able to pull off a few more explosive plays (gains of 12+ on the ground or 16+ through the air). The difference-maker, which pushed the Irish into a big edge in yards per successful passs, was Miles Boykin’s game winning grab. The junior entered this game as Notre Dame’s sixth leading receiver and etched his name into Irish history with a catch and run sequence that made LSU’s secondary look like West Virginia high schoolers vs. Randy Moss.
Dave Aranda’s defense was swarming and disruptive through three quarters, but Ian Book and Boykin were finally able to break through on Notre Dame’s final two possessions. I’ll devote plenty more words to Book later, but it was impressive to see him battle back after LSU was able to create negative plays with key third down conversions (somehow going 2 for 2 on a pair 3rd and 19’s, on drives that led to 11 of Notre Dame’s 21 points).
Mike Elko’s unit was extremely active as well, generating pressure on Danny Etling at key moments and continuing to mostly be in the right places at the right times. A healthy Derrius Guice was relentless in fighting for every yard, but the Irish defense kept him about as contained as one could have hoped for. There were a few painful completions of 20+ yards allowed, but Elko and company effectively stiffened up yet again in the right areas of the field.
Efficiency
To my eye test it definitely didn’t seem like the Irish were efficient running the ball, yet they were over the 50% mark in a performance landed right in the middle of their most efficient running success rates of the year. The reason maybe it didn’t feel that great could be the weird ways in which the offense was successful – the running backs averaged 4.4 yards per carry, with a 44% success rate, and amassed just 80 yards. Meanwhile, Wimbush and “Speed Reads” Book piled up 102 yards (excluding sacks), running for 9.3 YPC and successful on seven of eleven runs (64%). Add it all up and it’s a surprisingly solid 6.3 yards per carry against a talented LSU front, albeit one missing several key starters in the front seven.
In a tight contest, performance on passing downs made a significant difference, and this is where the QB change by Brian Kelly (while instant fodder for Twitter critics, including a certain former QB) turned out to be prescient. With Wimbush in, the Irish were successful on just 2 of 12 passing downs (17%). Once Book took over, the Notre Dame offense faced fewer passing downs and fared better when they arrived, succeeding on five of eight passing downs (63%).
Speaking of coaching decisions, it wasn’t mentioned much, but I though the LSU staff played into Notre Dame’s hands a little bit with their play-calling in this one. The Tigers had 11 third downs with four or fewer yards to go, with eight of them coming in Notre Dame territory (where with a poor kicking game, going for it on fourth seemed like an even better idea than usual). But on those 11 occasions LSU opted to run the ball just three times. The Irish defense deserves a lot of accolades, but Matt Canada may have also outsmarted himself a bit in this one.
Finishing Drives, Field Position, & Turnovers
Before the soul-crushing meltdown in Miami, one of my constant worries for this playoff contending team was what would happen if the turnover well dried up a bit and the insane rate of converting scoring opportunities fell off. Against the Hurricanes it really didn’t matter since everything went wrong, but in the season finale in Palo Alto both of those areas killed the Irish. Notre Dame outgained the Cardinal in total yardage and yards per play, and had the same number of scoring opportunities as Stanford. But three turnovers were extremely costly, and Stanford more than doubled up the Irish in points per scoring opportunity, 6.33 to 2.83.
So in the Citrus Bowl it was fantastic and perhaps indicative of this team’s toughness to see Notre Dame pull out the win despite both losing the turnover battle and not performing well on LSU’s side of the field. The credit overwhelmingly belongs to the ND defense (with a shout-out to some Tiger kickers) holding their opponent to just 2.83 points per trip inside the Irish 40 yard line.
#LSU ran 75 plays in the Citrus Bowl and …
– 41 were in Notre Dame territory (55%)
– 14 were in the ND red zone (19%)
– 6 were at or inside the ND 3-yard lineTotal points: 17
Total TDs: 2— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) January 2, 2018
While there was no shortage of special teams drama, Tyler Newsome cancelled out a few errors with a great day, leading to only a small advantage in average starting field position for LSU. The Tigers average drive started at their own 29, while the Irish began on average at their own 26.
On to a long offseason
Before closing, thanks to everyone for reading and engaging in these previews and recaps this year. 2017 was an adventure that was mostly tremendous fun sprinkled with intermittent frustration, anger, and disappointment (less than usual, although did you notice there wasn’t a Stanford recap?). Every year I try to build and improve these reviews bit by bit, so if you have any constructive feedback feel free to drop a comment or shoot me an email.
A few parting thoughts as we move into the offseason:
Pump the brakes a bit on the Ian Book hype train – the QB competition is far from over
Transparently, I’m frustrated we are back in quarterback competition land again. At one point in the first half, I in absolute sincerity asked if BK was a rich man’s Les Miles in terms of handling offense and quarterbacks (in hindsight, hyperbole with a hint of truth?) Wimbush is a special runner, seems to be a great kid, and it seemed like he could be a three year starter. But given his lack of progression as a passer, due to what is probably a combination of mechanical and decision-making problems, he is probably the underdog in most fan’s minds entering the spring. It’s completely understandable – Wimbush struggled mightily in the three Irish losses, and earlier flashes of brilliance were always countered with head-scratching moments. Book was clearly better on Monday against LSU.
But what we’ve seen from Book as a whole this season hasn’t been all that different from Wimbush in terms of results. Stylistically it’s been different – Book completed a higher percentage of his passes at 61% vs 49% – but Wimbush is still better in yards per attempt (6.8 vs 6.1 YPA). Book also has four interceptions in 75 attempts (5.3% of passes) versus 6 in 275 attempts for Wimbush (2.2% of passes). Considering the level of competition, Book’s performance against UNC (4.7 YPA, 2 picks) is arguably as bad as Wimbush’s output against Miami or LSU.
Neither QB is a finished product, and whoever starts next year – assuming it’s one of these two – will have more growing pains to endure.
2017: a bounce-back that just clears the bar
As I’ve tried to make sense of this season – the incredible highs, the painful letdowns, the uplifting finish – I keep trying to return to preseason expectations as a measuring stick. I wrote this preseason in an article that mostly was critical of BK dipping in program quality over the last few seasons and also underachieving in wins relative to program quality:
“After finishing 29th in F+ last season, combined with performances below the top-25 level in three of the past four years, Kelly needs to show strong improvement to argue he’s made changes that are correcting the program’s course back to a top 10 (or near) level. A top 10-15 performance would represent a step in the right direction, and unless lightning strikes twice, will lead to enough wins that Kelly should be back. Any worse than top-15 in program quality, and that’s where lucky with wins and losses will determine Kelly’s fate.”
That’s pretty much exactly where the 2017 team ended up, right? Whether you use traditional polls or advanced stats, this team will finish in the top 10-15 range. It was a team good enough that there was little luck involved in getting to ten wins – the Irish played just three one-possession games and went 2-1 in those contests. I’ve written about second order wins before as a way to measure the lucky or unlucky breaks of a team – last season, for example, the Irish had 7.2 second order wins in a 4-8 season, one of the worst on record over the past decade. This season there’s little disparity, with 9.3 second-order wins in a 10-3 season.
Improvement on the defensive end seems to definitely represent a strong course correction and strong hire by Kelly in picking Elko. On the offensive side of the ball, things remain more murky – would an out-of-touch fan really have noticed much of a difference between the 2017 offense called by Chip Long and previous seasons? The Irish seemed to be developing a strong offensive identity through the first nine games, only to see the run game bog down over the final few games. I’m not sure if it was the increase in opponent quality, guys wearing down, or the passing game falling apart or a combination of the three, but it leaves me without much of an idea of what Chip Long’s ideal offense looks like next year.
It’s interesting to consider how much the sequencing of this season also impacts our perceptions of the Notre Dame program heading into this offseason. In an alternative timeline where the team finishes stronger– say we even just switched the USC and Stanford games on the schedule – I think there’s much more confidence in the upside of this era moving forward. For the fanbase, at least, you get the sense that the sour taste of the Miami and Stanford losses still weren’t quite washed out with the sweet Citrus Bowl win. Hopefully that isn’t true for the coaches and staff, who will look to capitalize on that momentum heading into the final signing period and spring practice.
I agree; the jury is still out on Chip Long. But all I need to know about Elko is that when Boykin scored that touchdown, I KNEW the game was over. I knew LSU wouldn’t pull at 2015 Stanford and cover the ground necessary for a TD.
This was a fun and frustrating year all at the same time. But, man, 10-3 vs. a schedule with 11 bowl teams and 7ish teams in the Top 25 is a pretty successful year. The 2018 schedule looks just as brutal. Could be an interesting ride.
This comment aged well.
The QB situation is frustrating. I’m glad that we have a competition instead of just hoping Wimbush improves. If he had played the whole game, like the 1st half, and Kelly said “he’s our starter”. I would be despondent.
Maybe it will be Wimbush. Maybe one of the other guys. At least the position will be reassessed.
Nice write up.
It seems like ND is in a tough QB situation going into next season:
(a) start Wimbush hoping that an offseason will improve a sub 50% accuracy rate (I am skeptical),
(b) start Book because he has some experience and can complete more passes (but definitely has a ceiling in terms of performance),
(c) start PJ because he is supposed to be great (however he will be a freshman with only the summer to prepare), or
(d) start Davis because options A, B, and C do not seem appealing (but we really don’t know much about him)
Of course, with BK, playing more than one QB is an option (not necessarily a great option). At this point, I think we have to wait for more info on the spring performances or be willing to roll the dice with the freshman (assuming he comes to summer camp and looks solid).
I really do think that BW has the ability to improve significantly. I would have hoped to have seen improvement over the course of the season ;however, I suspect that there was not a lot of time to change anything major as they had enough to do to get the game plan installed. Again, it’s too bad there wasn’t much improvement at the bowl game. However, with a full off season to work things out, I think that BW can and will be the starter next fall. If he can’t, as discussed above, there are several options.
One player that most people are not talking about at all is Avery Davis. Remember, he was a 4 star QB who, I believe got invited to the Elite 11 camp. It will be interesting to see how he plays in the spring. I really know nothing about him, but sometimes players surprise you – both good and bad.
At a minimum, ND has lots of options to sort through.
Wimbush: really only started his senior year in HS. Despite being a junior he has only started this year. OC and QB coaches are on the green side. Expectations this year were to high.
Elko: amazing what good coaching accomplishes. Next year will be fun
Yoon: feels like we rode his back to victory.
Actually it’s the student body. We all learned how to ‘yooon” him from them.
Part of making “More Noise” with flair!
I don’t give him that pass. The ENTIRE 2017 season has now been played. You can’t still speak of Wimbush like he’s some freshman kid anymore. He had the spring game, summer camp at Culver, the entire 2017 season, one month of bowl game prep and then the bowl game. He’s the exact same player today that he was on 12/1/2016. He’s clearly not improving and with so many data points, they indicate a trend. He’s likely not going to become a great QB either.
What he IS, though, is a great athlete. That, we cannot deny. I really think with the apparent lack of talent and depth at WR that moving him there is the best option for the team as a whole.
I’m jacked about this bowl win. I really think it speaks to the steady quality of recruiting under Kelly & the improved mentality of the team this year that a few “next men in” (Book, Boykin, and Michael Young) made key plays down the stretch in this win.
We’ve helped out enough other teams these past few years with injuries, head-scratching play-calls, kicking game mishaps, and the like that I consider the gifts from LSU simply a return on karma — they don’t taint this win at all for me!
2 things:
1) I expect that Wimbush’s offseason will be all about mechanics. I’m no expert but if dramatic changes are made then maybe there could be more than incremental improvement. There probably is an issue with how he’s thinking about things but for all appearances he seemed to be emotionally ok when a lot of people would be despondent.
2) The Music City Bowl is probably making us devalue a win over a good SEC West team. Maybe it’s also because the SEC isn’t quite as dominant recently (but obviously still excellent).
Has Elko ever been looked at for head coaching opportunities? Is he the kind of guy who seems more interested in establishing a long-term presence as a coordinator? I’m really impressed with how he handled most matchups this year, and I’d love to see him here for the long haul. His in-game adjustments were really great in just about every game this year (other than really Wake Forest).
I don’t know if Elko has ever looked for an HC opportunity. He made a comment at The Echoes about like “what am I even doing up here” when Bettis was talking with Morgan that I found odd, like he was uncomfortable in such a spotlight. Maybe just the personality of a coordinator and not a head coach? Not sure if that’s worth anything but I just watched that show for the first time in lead up to the bowl game so it was top of memory.
Also last week, without directly saying, Kelly was talking about other programs sniffing around or something, and I saw some believed him to be talking about Texas A&M poking around for Elko to get a raise and be their DC but luckily I guess that’s not happening. So, I guess that would be a bigger worry at the moment, that he gets a large raise from a desperate program to make a lateral move, though it seems like he def will be back for 2018 at least.
A&M was after Aranda also. I think LSU gave him a raise to 2mil (Yikes!) or close to that. ND is going to have to pony up when their coaches perform .
Lol what the hell
https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/948735570683023360
Interesting and mostly good news there. I’m a little surprised Watkins didn’t go elsewhere after seeing his PT drop towards the end of the year, but he’s definitely a take. Biggest surprise is that Canteen is expected back. Main disappointments are that Bonner didn’t change his mind and that Cage (unsurprisingly, but still) appears to be a no-go.
I agree on Watkins but vet depth is good. That was the first time I’ve seen someone report that all the NFL draft board grades were “return to school” for Coney, TIllery, ESB and Adams. Not that it’s a huge surprise but interesting to see it out there. I’ve had a sinking feeling about some of those decisions but I suppose we will see here soon.
I’m suspecting a mixed bag: I expect that (but will be disappointed by) only 2 of them coming back (gun-to-head, I think ESB and Tillery come back; that’s just a gut instinct rather than based on anything in particular). If 3 or 4 come back, I’m pleasantly surprised; 1 or 0 come back, that’s a real bummer.
I don’t know why but lately I’ve been getting the feeling the only one that comes back is the one that up to recently we all would have thought to be the only one who could/should declare early…
That’s possible!
By the way (and this is not directed at hooks; just a general point to make), by “I’m pleasantly surprised”, I mean me, myself on an emotional level/cheering for my team. On an intellectual level, I am never disappointed by or annoyed with a player deciding that it is better to get paid than not get paid to do a job.
I hear ya and agree whole-heartedly. I’d probably advise and hope long-term that more college time might lead to better long-term prospects in a lot of cases, but I wouldn’t be annoyed if anyone and everyone with a chance for a career took it when they chose to make the leap.
I always wondered if there was some agreement in place with Canteen when he first transferred. From his perspective he may have wanted a commitment for 2 years when he transferred. It would be an odd situation to graduate transfer twice (in fact not sure that’s even possible) so while he’s not doing much for us I wonder if this was a forgone conclusion.
Doctorate transfer
Canteen was the starter before he got hurt. Admittedly, not much production, but some of that may be him, some may be Wimbush. Depending on what McKinley does it could matter if he comes back. I think the slot receiver became less important in Long’s offense because we are far more frequently 2 TEs than 3 WRs these days. FInke and Sanders saw a significant decline in PT this year. I am sure some others played slot from time to time, but my impression is that it was mainly a Claypool moving inside when Stepherson returned than true ‘slot’ WRs.
Given the numbers and positions, I would prefer to lose Canteen and keep what will likely be a back-up DT. While MDT, Tiassum and Taylor have not really played much (last because of injury), I am not sure I like the idea of running off scholarship players. That said, Canteen did play his way onto the field in what everyone thought was a deep position group so perhaps he does it again.
And now reports that Elko is going to A&M. Well at least that frees up some room to bring Rees on staff.
WHAT?????????? They must have thrown a TON of cash at him given what LSU ponied up to keep their guy.
This is very disappointing if it turns out to be true. It’ll be frustrating too if we just didn’t offer enough money to keep him. This may be the beginning of the end for Kelly who with a good DCOORD has been good but without one has been bad.
Who would be on the short list to replace Elko?
It’s tough on the players too constantly changing systems. Is there any chance that one of the coaches Elko brought with him would be ready to step up to be the coordinator for the sake of consistency? I’m doubting it but just wondering.
Brian Kelly confirms it on twitter, Elko accepted the A&M job.
Curses.
Not sure who will be next, hopefully they retain the 4-2-5 and keep building but this feels like a big setback to lose Elko after only one season with all he already did and figured still to do. A real bummer.
Damn…unbelievable
Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
Yea who did Elko bring with him on defense? Was it just the LBers coach? Would he be ready to be the Coord?
He brought Clark Lea, who has never had a position higher than LB coach though.
Yea so it seems unlikely that we could keep the scheme. It seems a little more unique.
If we got outbid, that’s pathetic.
NARRATOR: We did, and it was
Exactly. But why else would he go? Is working with Jimbo that much better of a job to leave after a year? Maybe more job security?
In case people are wondering – last’s years candidates: https://18stripes.com/defensive-coordinator-candidates-for-notre-dame/
Aranda is the name that sticks out to me, plus if they were able to bring him in it would at least give good PR that they’re willing to pay top dollar for a top coordinator. Whether it would come to pass, I do not know though just my own speculation and first thought.
Aranda just signed 4yr 10 mil deal with LSU….report from Sampson Elko about 2 mil.
Wow so they what doubled Elko’s salary?
Oh ok, I missed that part, I just remember hearing that he may have been on the outs. WELP
It’ll be Elston….will be interesting to see if Lea follows Elko.
That seems pretty unlikely given he just reupped at LSU. Besides if ND was willing to spend THAT kind of money they probably could have kept Elko.
Interestingly, Alex Grinch just got hired as Ohio State’s 10th coach and is now co-DC. Meanwhile, we’re hiring Tommy Rees as 10th coach and probably getting outbid for our current DC.
In the in-game chat, somebody (I think maybe Eric) noted that the football assistants would be considered in the positive column in the “is Jack Swarbrick good at overseeing the football program?” question. That’s at least murky at the moment.
Another thing that was mentioned in the positive column for Swarbrick was Campus Crossroads. Well, there is *no reason* to spend all that money on Campus Crossroads and then half-ass it when it comes to assistant coaching salaries. That’s insane.
(Yes I realize that not all of CC is football-related, but it was quite literally and also figuratively built around and upon the strictures of football on campus)
To be fair, $10mm in guaranteed money for an assistant football coach would give many sane people pause.
I’m mostly opposed to that view. If the problem is that the the players get paid nowhere near their market value while the coaches are profiting off their labor, yes, 100%, I agree. But John Jenkins does not agree that players should be paid. So, IMO, we’re not on the moral high ground when it comes to money in sports, already. Assuming that is why they decided not to match the A&M offer (which they could, because they money is there), they are trying to square the circle of not paying coaches an “unseemly” amount of money given that the players are getting paid little, which strikes me as a stupid principle to uphold.
The only reason I am “mostly” opposed instead of entirely opposed is that I think that assistant coaching salaries (and coaching salaries… and athletic department administration staffing and salaries… and non-revenue sports scholarships… etc.) would be lower if the colleges were allowed to pay the players and/or the players could profit off their likeness. I support letting the coaches get whatever the market bears under those circumstances, and if it’s $10M for an assistant coach, well, via con dios; it’s a free country.
The issue to me is that the salaries are going parabolic. Satan’s (haha – spell check did that!) deal a couple of years ago, which made everyone scratch their heads at the time, now makes him look like a chump compared to Jumbo.
So, the first time you hear $10mm for an assistant football coach most sane people say, “GTFOOH!”. In a couple of years, we’ll all be saying, “Ha, Elko, what a chump. He’d have gotten $25mm if he waited a couple years.”
It’s difficult to keep up when things go parabolic. 3 years ago, some poor bastard paid something like 400 bitcoin for a pizza. True story.
I actually like the idea of players being allowed to profit off of their likeness.
2 mil a year for asst. coach and players get no $$$. What sanity?
Well, they get a scholarship worth about $66,000; a financial stipend of several thousand dollars, free clothes, shoes, medical care, insurance, the top equipment money can buy, a likely bowl game spending spree at Best Buy, lots of free travel, and some of the top coaches money can buy (gulp – never mind on that last one). All this guaranteed, even if they never play a single down or help the team in any meaningful way.
I don’t want to get into a long discussion about paying players, and I realize that all of the top teams make way, way more than the scholarships they give out.
Because the administration clearly doesn’t give a shit how the team does, as long as it makes money,
RIP in peace, general feeling confident and optimistic about 2018: 1/1/2018 – 1/4/2018
Haha yup. This is more the feeling of being a ND fan anyway. We just can’t seem to have/keep good things.
Man I had Just finished listening to the Irish illustrated post bowl game podcast and was feeling rather positive about the off-season. WOMP-WOOOOOMP
My kneejerk pessimistic prediction: Kelly hires Mike Elston, goes 8-4, gets another year (“we need another year with this coaching staff” – Jack Swarbrick, 11/25/18), and the Gray Zone continues
Relatedly, and to my point above, we will be certain they are half-assing it if Elston is hired as DC.
Yup, although I’ll add that Chip Long gets the boot after next year
Hiring a buddy (for a position he’s not a great candidate for) would be a total Kelly 1.0 move. That really just can’t happen. It’s also inconsistent with the Kelly statement that ND would “add our next great DC in very short order”.
Granted, that’s just bluster and a public statement but there’s no chance they can sell Elston as the next great coordinator when he interviewed for the job a year ago as well and didn’t get it. That would just be settling into comfortable old habits that don’t work. I really, really hope that doesn’t end up coming to pass.
Saw on twitter a report of 3 years and an average of 1.8 mil/year. What was he making here???
My guess is he was around $1.0MM. Of all the candidates from last year, the one from Arizona should be available now. I think we can assume that any defensive recruit is now off the board.
Maybe they convince Clark Lea to stay and be DC. There is always Todd Lyght.
If they’re trying to do cheap this year, Bo Pelini is still subject to an offset. We could pay him a pittance for the year and then give him a retention bonus the day after his offset expires.
I’d say hire him just for the screaming matches