Total yardage and yards per play were almost identical. Michigan had a significant edge in efficiency. So how did Notre Dame control the game and come away with the win last weekend over Jim Harbaugh and company?

Confused? Check out this handy-dandy advanced stats glossary.

The Basics

As you can see, the Irish and Michigan were nearly dead even on all of the high-level categories here. These numbers here exclude only end of half / game kneel downs, as there was no garbage time in this one. The points per drive stand out – in part because the Michigan kickoff return touchdown isn’t captured here (it seems weird to capture that as a “possession” or “drive”, so it will later be included as part of evaluating field position).

Efficiency

The Wolverines were significantly more efficient that the Irish, driven by a solid run success rate and much better passing efficiency than Notre Dame. Both offenses struggled mightily on passing downs – not a surprise given the strength of the pass defenses on the field. These success rates in some ways mask the struggles of the Michigan offense – the Wolverines moved the chains decently, but were unable to sustain drives or pick up chunks of yardage at a time. They were limited to a death by a thousand cuts offense, and found out that the Irish defense was essentially rhinoceros skin as the field shrank.

Seven of Michigan’s ten possessions crossed mid-field, and yet the Wolverine offense could only muster up 10 points. Clark Lea’s defensive scheme definitely leaned toward “bend but don’t break” – relying on Notre Dame’s ability to get pressure on Shea Patterson mostly rushing four and giving up few long plays. “Clutch” is an adjective more frequently ascribed to offenses than defenses, but the ND defense rose to the occasion throughout the opener:

    • Michigan’s first drive started at the 35 after a kickoff out of bounds, quickly picked up a first down, and then entered Irish territory with an 8-yard completion on 1st down. Then the Irish stuffed Karan Higdon for a 1-yard loss on second down, and limited him to a 1-yard gain on 3rd and 3. Harbaugh, coaching like a nervous bird, punted on 4th and 2 from the Irish 43.
    • The Wolverines picked up three first downs on their second drive, moving to the Irish 29. After two unsuccessful plays on 1st and 2nd down,a Khalid Kareem sack for a 16-yard loss moved Michigan out of field goal range.
    • Again, Michigan’s third drive moved all the way to the Irish 5. On 2nd and goal from the 2, the Irish sniffed out a play-action pass (Drue Tranquill picking up the fullback slipping out) and Jerry Tillery picked up a sack, followed by a clutch Alohi Gillman pass breakup on 3rd down. A field goal was a huge loss for UM.

  • The fourth real Michigan offensive drive, an eternity later due to the return TD and a last end of half possession, was jump started by a blown coverage and 52 yard completion. After arriving at the Irish 16, Patterson went incomplete, incomplete, incomplete, and the field goal attempt was botched.
  • These are all still in a row! The fifth UM possession started at midfield after Wimbush’s interception. Asmar Bilal came up with a four yard TFL on 1st down, and the defense held on 4th and 4 from the ND 45.

The Irish offensive efficiency numbers are non-glamorous, in part because of a fairly conservative approach with a lead against a very good defense. Don Brown’s defense, especially in the second half, basically dared the Irish to throw more into one-on-one matchups. And while Chip Long obliged a few times to mix things up, he mostly said no thanks, including closing the game by running on seven of the last nine passing downs.

It’d be easy to nitpick the run and pass success rates, but again, it’s important to remember that this Michigan defense is probably very good. The Wolverines led the nation in opponent success rate last year, so the Irish numbers in this game were actually better across the board compared to Michigan’s 2017 stats. Brown’s defense allowed just a 27.7% passing success rate last year, and 33.3% on the ground. The Irish disadvantage in leverage rate and average 3rd down distance- facing a ton of passing downs. But that was overcome by strong 3rd down performances, highlighted by multiple Wimbush scrambles and some nice throws in those scenarios.

Explosiveness

This is how you make up for a disadvantage in efficiency – when  successful, make it count. And while the yards per play battle was close to even, Notre Dame had dramatic splits from the early and late drives. Through the first four Irish drives, which ended with Jafar Armstrong’s second touchdown, the Irish averaged 6.41 yards per play. After that point, with a double-digit lead for most of the game? Just 2.89 yards per play.Some of that was offensive conservatism, but some was also the Michigan defense playing better and the Irish offense executing worse. Brian Kelly pointed out as much in his Tuesday press conference, stating that there was a lesson to be learned in putting a team away.

Overall, I think it’s tough to come away with much besides cautious optimism for the Notre Dame offense. The line struggled a bit against an elite DL, but wasn’t dominated and flashed on several occasions in the run game. Chase Claypool, Miles Boykin, and Alize Mack each had big contested catches. The stable of running backs showed promise but room for improvement.

Brandon Wimbush was a steady leader. It wasn’t a perfect performance, but his excellent start to the game throwing the ball likely made early progress on the ground possible.  He hit several touch throws and slants under pressure that were troublesome last year, and constantly made Michigan pay with his legs even when they saw it coming. Like the offense as a whole, there were missed opportunities, but generally the decisions were good and mistakes didn’t snowball. The spectacular plays were enough to win, and silencing the Ian Book discussion for a while is probably a good thing for this team’s ceiling.

Every single defense from here on out should be easier, and Wimbush should get plenty of live work in the passing game between now and Stanford. It’s easy to forget that Miles Boykin only played around 100 snaps last year, and that there’s still rapport-building to establish between Wimbush and some of these receivers.

Winning the explosiveness battle was just as much about the defense, though. Michigan’s long run on the night was just ten yards. Patterson had to work very hard to hit tight ends and receivers on crossing routes while he was on the run himself, and the first tackle was made virtually every time. Every time it seemed like the Wolverine offense was finally going to break through, the defense generated another critical negative play.

After leading the nation in long pass plays, allowing zero of 50+ yards, all last season Nico Collins did snag a 52-yarder on a blown coverage (miscommunication between Julian Love and Jalen Elliott). Fire Lea!

Finishing Drives, Field Position, & Turnovers

 

As mentioned earlier, many hard-fought Michigan yards ended up squandered. Three Michigan drives of 47+ yards resulted in zero points, while Notre Dame scored on each drive that ventured inside the Wolverine 40. The Irish were almost perfect, as a penalty negated a beautiful Boykin touchdown reception on the drive that later ended with an almost-equally beautiful Justin Yoon kick right down the middle.

Field position (and inter-related special teams) could have been extremely costly. The average starting field position differential ending up only being about a yard in favor of Michigan, thanks to the game-ending fumble recovery, but could have been far worse. The lowlights included the kick return touchdown and  another kickoff out of bounds. Tyler Newsome had some excellent punts but also a 25-yarder that gave the Wolverines the ball on the ND 41. It didn’t cost Notre Dame, but this continues to feel like a dumb category for a team this talented to struggle in.

From an advanced stats perspective the Irish were a little lucky with turnovers since they recovered the only fumble of the game (100% recovery rate!). Watching the game, however, Wimbush put the ball in less danger than Patterson. There were a number of pass deflections and poor passes Patterson threw that he was lucky not to finish with more than one pick. His pocket presence was exceptional considering that Michigan defensive ends were quickly coming around the edge on most drop-backs.

Final Thoughts

On paper I predicted Michigan would be the toughest opponent the Irish would face all year. And they still could be! But the potential things advanced stats either dinged the Wolverines for or didn’t know were on full display in the loss. The offensive line looked just as bad as 2017, the offensive scheme and weird play-calling arrangement seemed poor, and the defense was very good but not good enough.

The performance by the Irish defense was exceptional, with great signs in Clark Lea’s first game as DC. It will be fascinating to see how the ND defense adjusts to different matchups, including better offensive lines. Will Lea bring more pressure against other teams? Or is the “bend but don’t break” that worked against the Wolverines what Lea really wants to do? How dominant can this unit look against Ball State, Vanderbilt, and Wake Forest?

The Demon Deacons in particular shouldn’t be overlooked, but there’s the potential for more spotlights wins (or crippling losses! Miami wasn’t that long ago) less than a month away. Stanford has to get through USC and Oregon before coming to South Bend, but even splitting those games they will be a top-20 opponent. Virginia Tech can’t lose a trap game against Duke, but other than that has cupcakes prior to a game in Blacksburg that could be a top-10 matchup.

All I know before I get too far ahead of myself is that this was a win to enjoy, and I refuse to let “eh Michigan isn’t good under Harbaugh anyway” or “Wimbush is still bad, we’ll lose later” speculation dampen that. A win over a team with that much NFL talent, that needed and wanted a win so very badly, is enormous. It’s still early, but the growing track record of the “new” Kelly-Long-Lea(Elko)-Balis era is something worth getting excited about, and this adds another top-10 quality performance to their resume.