It will be a new era at quarterback for Notre Dame in 2021 as Ian Book moves on and a fresh starter needs to be broken in soon. With the Irish facing question marks at the all-important position we wanted to take some time and look at the upcoming opponents this fall and see where everyone is sitting well before spring practice begins.
We’ll focus on the first half of the schedule today beginning with the (potentially big) opener in Tallahassee.
Game #1 Florida State
McKenzie Milton, 5th SR
Jordan Travis, r-JR
Chubba Purdy, SO
Tate Rodemaker, SO
The Seminoles played 4 quarterbacks last year and still haven’t found The Guy since Jameis Winston left town. They do welcome UCF transfer McKenzie Milton for his final year of eligibility which is a smart move. If he’s even 80% of his former self then Florida State will immediately be dangerous.
Can he be good again right out of the gate? It’s easy to forget he was injured on November 23, 2018 and hasn’t played a football game in 26 months as of this writing and it’ll be 33 months lapsed when the Seminoles kickoff against the Irish.
Jordan Travis is a fine option if the higher ceiling for Milton doesn’t work out. Travis did some nice things against Notre Dame this past year but really isn’t an effective passer (1,056 yards on 131 attempts last year) as much as he is a good runner (569 yards and 7 touchdowns).
Milton is potentially a big problem in the opener.
Chubba Purdy–younger brother of Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy–briefly saw some action last year and was a top 200 prospect from the 2020 class. He’s by far the most highly rated quarterback on the roster so maybe he could make a big jump this off-season. Florida State did not sign a quarterback for 2021 while veteran James Blackman–who felt like he was in Tallahassee since 2014–entered the transfer portal.
Game #2 Toledo
Carter Bradley, r-JR
Dequan Finn, r-SO
Tucker Gleason, SO
Gavin Hall, r-FR
Jason Candle took over a strong program from Matt Campbell and is entering his 6th season with the Rockets. After a good start, it hasn’t gone particularly well as Toledo is 17-14 since 2018. They came into 2020 with veteran 5th-year quarterback Eli Peters but he got hurt and didn’t finish the season.
Toledo turned to Carter Bradley who for better or worse made some things happen in 2 winning starts to end the year. In victories over Northern Illinois and Central Michigan, Bradley amassed 697 passing yards with 6 touchdowns and 5 picks. I’m assuming he’s the starter heading into 2021.
Toledo did not sign a 2021 quarterback but did add Georgia Tech transfer Tucker Gleason. They’ve led the MAC in recruiting for 5 straight years and should be able to put decent pieces around a quarterback.
Game #3 Purdue
Jack Plummer, r-JR .
Aidan O’Connell, 5th SR
Austin Burton, 5th SR
Michael Alaimo, r-FR
The quarterback situation for Purdue has been a mess in recent years. In 2019, they played 3 quarterbacks in extensive action before settling on former walk-on Aidan O’Connell to start 2020. Then, he broke his foot and missed the final 3 games as the Boilermakers switched to Jack Plummer.
Both quarterbacks posted quality numbers this past year (combined 1,854 yards with 15 touchdowns and 4 interceptions across 6 games) and head coach Jeff Brohm is supposed to be a QB whisperer. Purdue did not recruit a 2021 quarterback and will no longer have the services of the dynamite slot receiver Rondale Moore who caught an absurd 35 passes over the final 3 games in Plummer’s starts.
Game #4 Wisconsin
Graham Mertz, r-SO
Chase Wolf, r-JR
Danny Vanden Boom, 5th SR
Deacon Hill, FR
Wisconsin fans were hyped about their highest quarterback recruit ever in Graham Mertz and his ability to start right out of the gate in 2019. However, Jack Coan held onto the job and was on his way to keeping it before breaking his foot during camp ahead of the 2020 season. Now, Coan has transferred to Notre Dame.
Mertz was nearly flawless in his debut against hapless Illinois and then wasn’t asked to do much in a blowout victory over Michigan. The rest of the season was far more humbling featuring just 2 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions over his final 5 games, including a trio of losses where the Badgers scored a combined 20 points.
Mertz started hot to open his career.
Assuming it’ll be Coan vs. Mertz in Chicago that will be a fun story line. Wisconsin has a bye prior to facing Notre Dame and will only have played Penn State and Eastern Michigan before making the trip to Soldier Field. We may not know too much about the Badgers and if they can regroup with better skill talent around Mertz.
Game #5 Cincinnati
Desmond Ridder, 5th SR
Evan Prater, r-FR
Michael Lindauer, r-SO
Jack Perry, r-SO
Brady Lichtenberg, FR
Cincinnati received some great news when Desmond Ridder opted to return for 2021. The Louisville product has started for the past 3 years for the Bearcats posting an impressive 31-6 record. Ridder came on to the scene as a redshirt freshman in becoming the AAC Rookie of the Year–and while he had a bit of a down 2019–he bounced back with his best season yet this past fall. He’s far from a great passer (6,905 yards, 61%, 57 TD, 20 INT for his career) but is a very dangerous runner (1,825 yards, 22 TD) which makes him a lethal dual-threat quarterback.
The Bearcats did lose backup Ben Bryant to transfer to Eastern Michigan this off-season. However, they are grooming local product Evan Prater–one of the top prospects from Ohio in 2020 and the top recruit in the Luke Fickell era–to succeed Ridder when he leaves.
Game #6 Virginia Tech
Braxton Burmeister, 5th SR
Knox Kadum, r-SO
Connor Blumrick, 5th SR
Tahj Bullock, FR
It’s been a rough couple of years for Virginia Tech and their quarterback play. Former Kansas transfer Ryan Willis played well in 2018 but injuries blew up his 2019 season. Hendon Hooker came in and showed promise to finish that season but really struggled and also dealt with injuries in 2020. Hooker has now transferred to Tennessee while Quincy Patterson (1 start and backup snaps to his name) also bolted this off-season for North Dakota State.
The Hokies will likely turn to Braxton Burmeister who sat out 2019 following a transfer from Oregon and actually began 2020 as the starter but didn’t play a ton overall. Other options include Knox Kadum who played in 1 game last year while St. Peter’s Prep in New Jersey is sending freshman Tahj Bullock to Blacksburg. Virginia Tech also received transfer Connor Blumrick from Texas A&M but he’s more of an athlete and isn’t expected to be a starting quarterback option.
Comparison to 2020
This upcoming first half of the schedule for opponent quarterbacks is miles tougher than last year, which in combination with Notre Dame’s uncertain quarterback situation, makes me feel like there shouldn’t be a ton of confidence the Irish are just going to waltz to another 10+ win season.
Florida State is the only repeat opponent so you’re looking at either a likely improved Travis or a really dangerous Milton who vaults the Seminoles ceiling. Either way, FSU’s offense should be much better. Meanwhile, combining the 24 regular season games for 2020-21 and Ridder and Mertz are potentially in the top 5 toughest quarterbacks faced over the past 2 years.
It’s possible that each of the first 6 opponent quarterbacks in 2021 are at minimum competent. Last year, it was a pretty ugly start especially with Pittsburgh being without Kenny Pickett. From the 14 quarterbacks who qualified in the ACC via passer rating, Notre Dame faced the 4th, 11th, 12th, and 13th in the first half of last season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s Joey Yellin’s 84.7 rating would’ve been dead last in the ACC by nearly 20 points. Additionally, USF’s Jordan McCloud finished 7th out of 9th in qualified passer rating in 2020 within the AAC.
The first half of 2021 will be so much more difficult for Notre Dame’s defense compared to this past season.
Not sure Notre Dame had the option to choose, but I would have rather YOLO’d it with Milton than high floor/low ceiling with Coan.
That was one hell of an ordeal Milton went through with that injury.
He’s been through a lot. I am rooting for him. Sometimes these guys who go through serious injuries end up being a shadow of their former self. College Basketball has plenty of these guys this season: Bryce Aiken, Seth Towns, Josh Langford, etc.
College football also get them…(cough, cough)Malik Zaire (cough, cough).
In Freeman we trust?
Unrelated, but looks like Ovie will be playing at Texas next year.
This makes me think it had more to do with relationships than actual potential playing time as the reason he left.
Possibly so. I believe he announced he was going in the portal on a Monday, after the team just lost and he got quite a bit of time in the game against Bama the prior Friday. Very quick turnaround, seemed like that was the plan he had developed.
Might just be ready to move it on and try something new at a new place. Also, positionally, I think he’s going to be more stand up/edge rush OLB type going forward. Might be more appealing to him than being a DE.
The Jay Hayes Memorial Transfer?
(Ovie will probably play more than Hayes did at Georgia though).
[click read more at the bottom for proper spacing] Also off-topic from friend of the website Jamie Uyeyama (https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/14139/6-thoughts-on-a-thursday?utm_source=f5-newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=001060&utm_content=0) are two points that we’ve talked about on here a lot: recruiting and talent to win it all. These two points together were kind of eye-opening. “5. Two years ago I wrote a piece looking at the previous 15 national champions. Each of them had multiple first round picks. 12 of the 15 had four or more starting for them. We can now add LSU and Alabama to that list to make it all 17 teams who had multiple first round picks. LSU had four last year and a fifth is going to go when Ja’Marr Chase gets taken off the board this spring. Alabama has five projected first round picks in this upcoming draft and they may end up with more than that. What does it take to win a natty? A team that is loaded with first round picks. Does Notre Dame have multiple first round picks on the 2021 roster? Kyle Hamilton seems well on his way to being one. After that, it’s not really obvious outside of Michael Mayer (eventually). Notre Dame essentially needs some combination of Kevin Austin to become a legitimate WR1, Kyren Williams to be Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2.0, Isaiah Foskey to develop into a force off the edge, Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa to emerge as a true game wrecker, or have a couple of the new starters on offensive line follow in the footsteps of Martin, Stanley, Nelson, and McGlinchey. Of course there are other guys who could develop. No one saw Will Fuller as a future first round pick when he was a freshman or predicted that everything would click for Jerry Tillery as a senior. We’ll have to see what happens. But to put it bluntly, Notre Dame needs to hit big on at least a few of those scenarios if they are going to win a championship. The standard to win right now is so high and they have to match it to have a shot.” “6. Notre Dame’s 2018 recruiting class hasn’t been anything close to expected, especially when looking at the top players from the class. Houston Griffith, Kevin Austin, Phil Jurkovec, Shayne Simon, and Jack Lamb were the highest ranked according to the composite rankings. Jurkovec is no longer with the program, Lamb is in the transfer portal, and none of the other three has established themselves as full-time starters. I know this might be seen as some massive failure by Notre Dame, but after looking at results from the top-five prospects in the previous five cycles and comparing that with other schools, what has happened with the ‘18 class isn’t as uncommon as one would assume. From 2013-2017, Oregon had only four of the 25 top-five recruits from those classes become NFL Draft picks. (I included projected picks in this year’s draft as well) Florida went three for 25. USC went nine for 25. Five of the nine went in the first two… Read more »
I think you hit the nail on the head with the note that OSU and Bama have more 5 stars (and highly ranked 4 stars) — those likely increase their hit rates. I think that the 4 star range goes from the 30s to the high 200s, so there is going to be a great deal of variability among 4 star players. I wonder if there have been any analyses of 4 stars and whether or not more highly ranked ones end up getting drafted higher and more often?
So just to be clear, those are Jamie Uyeyama’s comments. But yes a key point perhaps to why they hit higher their top-rated recruits.
I am pretty sure I read an article that showed Top 100 players get drafted at a higher rate than the rest of 4 stars, but it was years ago and I can’t find it.
Recruiting rankings do such a good job at a macro level, that although the difference between the #90 and #110 isn’t very predictive, I am pretty confident that the group of #25-100 is significantly more successful than #100-300.
The numbers are so clear, no one is really doing much statistical analysis these days. But like 5 years ago it was all the rage. Sadly those older articles are getting harder to find.
If there’s one thing that I have learned from watching ND football over the past decade, it is that second and third year starting QBs tend to regress. So, clearly we can extrapolate from that and can expect all of these opposing QBs to regress this year and be less of a threat
If you were going for a laugh…. congrats.