The game was almost beside the point Saturday as Notre Dame dominated Stanford 45-14 to move into the clubhouse at 11-1 in a season that against all odds will end as very much part of the College Football Playoff story.
Coach Brian Kelly abandoned any pretense of being gentlemanly at the end of the game, stuffing Jack Coan back in after a couple of offensive drives went nowhere so that Coan could lead a purely cosmetic TD drive and add the final 7 to the score.
Highlights:
There’s very little of note to discuss from the actual game, so I’ll run that down real quick. Today’s story, again, is more about what’s around Notre Dame than what’s within it.
The game
Jack Coan was mostly very good apart from a dumb third-quarter interception that basically gave Stanford its first points. His taking a stranglehold on the QB job after seemingly being ready to give it away for a five-week stretch early in the season has been interesting to watch.
Kyren Williams got over the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the season on that run-up-the-score TD drive, something that looked like it would take 30 games to accomplish for those watching in September.
Tyler Buchner…sort of feels like he’s taken a step back? I don’t know if they’re putting the clamps on his passing or if he’s just not showing it in practice, but apart from his obviously very cool TD run in the 3rd quarter, there wasn’t much to see from the freshman. He’ll presumably be starting in Columbus in 9 months.
The defense was, like Coan, mostly good. The first half was quite dominant. There’s not much they could do about the first TD they gave up this month given the short field, and then there was a bad play for the second, but despite Tanner McKee’s OK numbers (20/25, 172, 1 TD), it never once felt like the Cardinal were in the game.
OK, now what actually matters
So let’s acknowledge again how great it is that this Notre Dame team in particular, without the kind of high-star talent you’d think would be necessary to get here, is again butting up against the CFP field as the regular season ends. ND is 11-1, 54-9 in five seasons, and is looking at a worst-case scenario of something like a Fiesta Bowl bid against Michigan State or Baylor (or maybe a Peach bid against Ole Miss?).
And here are the scenarios. For our purposes, 4 games matter next week, and they’re conveniently spread out across the 3 time slots. I will try not to complain about the unfortunate Michigan win today, but just know I didn’t like it any more than you do.
If chalk happens: Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, Georgia and Michigan all win
This obviously bounces ND. You’re probably looking at Georgia vs. Cincinnati and Michigan vs. Oklahoma State. ND goes to the Fiesta Bowl, with Baylor and Michigan State looking like they’ll be taking the other two available at-large spots along with the ACC champ. Which of the 3 Notre Dame would play would be up to the matchmakers, but my money would be on a game against MSU in one of the two games.
(If you’re like me, you’re wondering why UM is looking at drawing one of the weakest CFP teams of the era a decade after already being gifted with the worst BCS at-large opponent of that era. Just know it was ND’s fault. If the Irish beat Cincinnati, they’re looking at a #2 seed and their own matchup with Michigan. We made our bed on this one, just as we did in 2011 when we gagged the UM game away and allowed them to make a BCS bowl in the first place.)
Alabama loses and one (or more) of the 3 non-Alabama underdogs wins
If we presume Ohio State will fall behind Notre Dame (not a certainty, but I think they will) and an SEC runner-up Alabama will too (I don’t think the Tide have earned any benefit of the doubt this month, do you?), then that means ND only needs one of Baylor, Houston and Iowa to win to make the playoff. The chances of any one of those things happening by itself are not high, but the chances of any of the three happening seem pretty good.
You can safely assume ND moves up one spot from what I think will otherwise be #5 in the final pecking order* for each of those hypothetical upsets. So if one of them lose, ND is #4 opposite Georgia – scary, but hey, we’re in! Cincinnati and Michigan (or whichever pair you like) lose, ND moves up to #3 and plays whichever of the 3 didn’t lose. If all three go down, then it’s #2 and God knows what happens. (Chaos!)
* The final pecking order being, in a chalky world, Georgia, Michigan, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati, I suspect in that order, then Notre Dame, Alabama and Ohio State. Again, just a guess on my part.
Nightmare scenario for most people who like fun: Alabama wins
For most people with no dog in the fight, Alabama beating Georgia next week with no other upsets – which seems wildly unlikely given the version of the Tide that’s played this November, but this is still Nick Saban – is clearly the worst-case scenario. If that happens, the Tide and Dawgs both make the CFP and Cincinnati is probably left out again.
From a Notre Dame perspective, this result would also lead to ND playing in the Peach Bowl against the ACC champ; as we’ve discussed, the G5 representative, if not in the CFP, is ticketed for the Fiesta Bowl this year. The powers that be would clearly not arrange a rematch in that game. So, Peach Bowl against Wake Forest or Pittsburgh. Not exactly high-voltage.
If it makes you feel any better, this is the one permutation that would result in Michigan being forced into a matchup with a hyper-elite program, presumably Georgia (Alabama, you’d assume, would vault to #1 on the strength of the Georgia win with the Bulldogs probably dropping to #3, though 2 or 3 is an irrelevant distinction). So even if that kinda depressing thing comes to fruition, at least there’d be a small carrot to help make it go down easier.
But anyway, now we wait
Nothing’s left for Notre Dame to do. We know we’re going to play in a big bowl. The only question is what the stakes will be. Next Saturday will likely be stressful, but remember to enjoy the stress. It means this team is making noise nationally, just as it should be.
11-1, baby!
Despite BK putting Coan back in for the last score it was obvious that he backed off of the killer instinct from last week. ND should have score 31 or 38 in the first half and definitely should have hung 50 or 60 on this defense. One final drive is literally not enough to show a newfound care for style points. This game should have been a slaughter…but it was just a ho hum blowout…which won’t be good enough to stay ahead of a 1 loss Big 12 team.
You might be right, but hey! We actually went for the cosmetic score rather than acted like gentlemen! We never used to do that.
I’m glad we did do it, but I wonder about the next time the shoe is on the other foot. I remember twin 38-0 losses to USC and Florida State in the season that shall not be named in which both head coaches clearly took their feet off of the gas pedals out of respect.
In-situ, I thought it was more delivering the emphatic nail in the coffin for the game. Stanford had shown a touch of life with that TD, and the buchner-bois had just punted after a meh drive, so there was some inkling of maybe stanford making it interesting a la florida state. My perception was it was less for the CFP and more to totally secure the w-i-n.
Regardless, 11-1 feels oh so juicy, could care less where we end up, this team has done what they needed to down the stretch.
Happy thanksgiving from brian kelly; ‘preciate you big fella! Im thankful for what this squad is and where the program is at after decades of sadness
I believe Coan going back in at the end of the game was Kelly throwing a middle finger at Shaw for calling timeouts at the end of the second half and trying to kick an 85 yard field goal.
I support this.
Agree 100%. And to get Kyren 1000 yards on the season, which the broadcast never picked up on.
Good point on Kyren. To Dannan14’s point, I am not at all sure 55-0 against the Tree would keep the CFP committee from vaulting a one loss Big 12 champ Okie State over us.
Yep, I’m with you all the way. A 45-14 road win where anyone paying attention understands it wasn’t even that close is impressive as it needs to be.
Notre Dame just beat GT by 10 more points than Georgia did, winning big enough this time of year is not the issue. There’s too much out of Nd’s control in general, that’s the problem. Beating a 3-9 Stanford team 80-0 wouldn’t really change that much. Not enough style points in the world to change losing to Cincy.
I don’t think getting to 45-14 was the point much as not letting it get to 38-21 was. BK has a team and program to worry about. The goal is to win NCs. So if anyone’s pissed about Coan going back in….Suck it.
“For most people with no dog in the fight, Alabama beating Georgia next week with no other upsets – which seems wildly unlikely given the version of the Tide that’s played this November, but this is still Nick Saban – is clearly the worst-case scenario. If that happens, the Tide and Dawgs both make the CFP and Cincinnati is probably left out again.”
I don’t get this part. With an Alabama win + no upsets, wouldn’t it be them, Michigan, UGA and Cincy? (Probably, IMO, in that order to avoid the immediate Georgia/Bama rematch).
Are we presuming a 1-loss Ok State jumps Cincy? I don’t see why that would happen.
Oklahoma State jumps past Cincinnati if they pick up a 3rd top 10 win next week. I don’t think that’s really even in question, to be honest.
Agreed it wouldn’t be close. Cinci easily gets jumped.
I’m not sure it’s a given. Didn’t Okie State need a gift or two from the refs just to win last night? There’s no evidence based on wins that the Big XII is really any better than the AAC this season. Will be interesting to see how the rankings get reshuffled this week.
Okie state will have 3 wins over what will end up top 15 teams (yes one team beaten twice). Cinci will have one top 5 win. I’m sure Okie state’s rest of the schedule is stronger than Cinci’s too.
Whatever you think of the strength of those conferences clearly the committee thinks the big 12 is considerably stronger than the AAC with 3 top 15 teams. Assuming Houston loses to Cinci, they will not likely be in the top 25.
Yeah I’m with you. Baylor just beat 6-6 Texas Tech 27-24 yesterday. They’re ranked where they’re ranked but not really THAT impressive.
Cincinnati was 4th last time around. I know they’ve jockeyed positions around before but I find it extremely questionable Ok State comes from behind Notre Dame and Cincy to make the playoff with a loss
How do the at-large bids work this year?
Assuming chalk win, wouldn’t Baylor be #2 in the big 12 (runner up in championship game) and be in the sugar bowl or would with the extra loss that put them behind oklahoma? In either case, why wouldn’t Ole Miss be an at large ahead of the 3rd Big 12 team and Mich. st?
And assuming again that Cinci is in the playoffs, how do the Fiesta and Peach bowl pick their teams?
Outside of the playoffs, playing Ole Miss would probably be the best matchup (a real challenge) with 3rd big 12 team (Baylor/Oklahoma) next, Mich. st third and ACC champ 4th. I would think if Ole Miss is in the 3rd Big 12 team would be knocked out of this scenario.
Yeah, you are right. I was still under the working assumption of a Bedlam rematch, but it would in fact be Baylor in the Sugar, win or lose (barring mass carnage).
So it will likely work out to Ole Miss, MSU or the ACC champ if we’re not in the playoff. Just based on geography, I would guess us vs MSU in the Fiesta and Ole Miss vs the ACC champ in the Peach if it is chalk.
Is there some kind of protocol for picking those games? Or does the committee “schedule” them? Does geography usually factor into these things?
I think a lot of it is geography. The last time we got an at-large NY6 berth, in 2015, they put Houston in the Peach because they had to (Boise had gone Fiesta the year before and Cotton was getting the G5 team the next year) and then put Florida State there because of geography. ND and Ohio State were the only two eligible teams left so got put in the Fiesta.
Looking at last year and the 3 non-contract games, Cincinnati and Georgia got the Peach, Florida/Oklahoma was the Cotton and Oregon/Iowa St was the Fiesta. You could’ve flipped Georgia and Florida there, but other than that all those picks were straight geographical ones.
Any chance we get in on Devin Brown and if we did, could he be the starter?
Also, what are the chances we take a transfer at QB? Gabriel perhaps from UCF? (Who I think would have multiple years of eligibility).
Notre Dame was aware of Devin Brown’s imminent decommitment and offered him just before the decommitment was public. Kelly is staying on the west coast this week and then making his way back hitting some other western states. So… maybe.
ND’s quarterback room next year will have 4 scholarship guys in it without Brown: Buchner, Pyne, Powlus, and Angeli. If they got Brown I think they’d definitely be out of the transfer market for next year. Regardless of if they add Brown, a transfer, or no one I’d expect the QB depth chart to be written in pencil coming into spring camp.
Are we sure about Powlus, admittedly he will go nowhere, but I am concerned about his injury status. There have been some comments in articles about their concern he may never play again. Perhaps I am reading more into it.
I also wouldn’t give up on the LSU commit, Walker Howard. If the rumors of the LSU Brinks truck is on its way to Norman, what are the odds he would take Caleb Williams with him? I would think pretty high. That would leave Howard playing behind a proven sophomore for two years. 5* QBs are not well known for their patience for playing time.
Riley to LSU never made much sense and he was pretty adamant last night that it isn’t happening. I wouldn’t worry about that contingency.
That’s my take too. Riley is not leaving.
Well he is leaving. But it’s to Southern California
yea interesting, just saw that. I guess that’s why he could be adamant he wasn’t leaving for LSU.
I think Powlus can definitely come back from that collarbone injury and win two Heismans as the oracle foretold.
Me, yesterday: ND should take a run at Spencer Rattler in the off-season
Me, today: ND should take a run at Caleb Williams in the off-season
What’s the new transfer rule exactly?
Why wouldn’t he follow Riley to USC?
Jaxon Dart
Players can freely transfer anywhere once without having to sit a year. But for academic standards Notre Dame almost certainly isn’t going to be able to take anyone but grad transfers, so it’s probably not going to be sophomores from football factories on their radars.
I think this is going to put ND behind the 8-ball even more with “recruiting.” While the blue bloods will be upgrading more frequently with these high end transfers, we’ll have to wait for graduates.
Maybe, but it should be OK. It’s been this way for a while (i.e. Justin Fields situation). There’s always going to be certain restraints where elite players probably don’t have Notre Dame on their radar and the team isn’t able to take anyways. I bet nothing is going to change, it’s always going to be more team fit like Jack Coan than high-end talent. Does put an emphasis on recruiting those players from jump street anyways.
But what’s changing will be the volume of players transferring and how talented and how quickly they will be contributing. It’ll make it far easier for teams to plug holes where ND will be stuck developing and if it misses on a few prospects at one position is just stuck with a hole.
It’s a little like if an NFL team just by rule could not really sign free agents but could only draft.