When 1990 Notre Dame alum and current West Point athletic director Boo Corrigan hired Jeff Monken in late 2013 it was seen as a coup among the smaller college football schools. Monken, coming off a successfull 38-16 run at Georgia Southern, had been tabbed as the next great triple option coach and was linked to a lot of decent jobs over his last couple years in Statesboro.

Granted, he took over an abysmal program on the shores of the Hudson River. The last time Army had fewer than 6 losses is 1996 and they’ve lost at least 9 games in 11 separate seasons since 2000. At first, Monken looked like he wasn’t going to be any different than his predecessors following a 6-18 record through 2 seasons.

Army (+13.5) at Notre Dame

Alamodome
San Antonio, Texas
Date: Saturday, November 11, 2016
Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET
Television: NBC
Series: 38-8-4

The breakthrough is finally happening for Army! Monken has improved the Black Knights’ F/+ rank from 121st, to 108th, to 70th nationally coming into this weekend.

Ironically, it’s been the Army defense that’s led the productive season. They’re only giving up 18.1 points per game (against a not-terrible schedule for their standards) and come into the game against Notre Dame with the 44th ranked S&P defense.

As we’ll see below, Monken still has some issues with his offense at West Point.

3 Matchups to Watch

Notre Dame’s Passing Game vs. Army’s Defense

Despite playing a pair of Power 5 teams already the Black Knights have faced some of the weakest passing offense out of anyone in the country. Normally, we like to see how much Notre Dame can punish an academy on the ground but it’ll be interesting to see how the Irish passing game produces against a defense that hasn’t seen a quarterback like DeShone Kizer.

Army’s traditional stats are through the roof, though. They’re limiting teams to 55% accuracy and have only allowed 8 touchdowns while forcing 12 interceptions. The most passing yards they’ve given up is 220 by Wake Forest and that took 43 attempts! Due to scheduling, Army is only 72nd in S&P+ Passing defense.

Turnover from Both Sides

Army has done a good job grabbing interceptions against inferior passing attacks but they’re not real disciplined keeping the ball on offense. Whereas Navy has just 8 turnovers total, the Black Knights have 8 fumbles and an incredible 9 interceptions for a triple option team.

Starting quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw has thrown 8 of those interceptions on only 77 attempts–a pick every 9.6 attempts!

3rd Down Conversions

As you’d imagine there’s a theme as Army is like Navy, just not as good. The Middies are currently 6th nationally in converting 3rd downs but Army is sitting at a still decent 34th nationally. Notre Dame had its problems on defense getting Navy off the field but let’s also not forget the Irish offense has struggled most of the season converting 3rd downs (68th nationally).

Plus, if you thought last week was annoying with Navy’s 4th down attempts well the Black Knights go for it even more with 28 attempts in 9 games.

2 Sides of the Line

Army brought back 5 players from 2015 who started games but a pair in Victor Nieves and Jaryn Villegas are no longer on the roster.

At center junior Bryce Holland (6-2, 285) has started every game as has senior left guard Justin Gilbert (6-5, 295). Junior right tackle Brett Toth (6-6, 276) started a pair of games last fall and has only missed one game this season.

Junior right guard Mike Houghton (6-4, 288) made 9 starts last year and the first 7 in 2016 but has given way to freshman Mike Johnson (6-3, 262) in recent weeks. Senior Colby Enegren (6-2, 279) received his first 4 career starts at left tackle this year and is now on the bench behind sophomore Rick Kurz (6-2, 271) who started 8 games last year and was coming of an injury.

Army doesn’t ask a whole lot out of their linemen in their 3-4 defense. Junior defensive end John Voit (6-3, 258) is a returning starter and has 5 tackles for loss and 2 sacks on the season. On the other edge senior Eddy Ruzga (6-3, 249) gets most of the playing time and has totaled just 8 tackles in 2016. The starting nose guard is junior Andrew McLean (6-4, 282) and he has 11 tackles and 1 TFL.

1 Prediction

If the season prior to this game had unfolded differently I’d be very wary this weekend. Since Army has proven they are a team with a decent pulse this had outrageously frustrating struggle written all over it. Not that Notre Dame’s 3-6 record makes this game easier per se, but coming off a loss to Navy there’s bound to more desire to not drop a second game to an academy. Plus, far less chance of being caught off guard.

Nevertheless, this decision to play the triple option in back-to-back weeks is going to be interesting to watch unfold. Does it benefit the Irish or does it compound the problems, especially since Army’s offense is just different enough to be difficult to prepare for in a week?

The return to the Alamodome certainly isn’t a triumphant one for Notre Dame. This Shamrock Series game had dreary boringness written all over it (matching uniforms to boot!) long before the season began and now I can’t imagine the 65% full crowd getting louder than 100 dBA on Saturday.

Notre Dame can easily lose this game, and that’s probably not the least bit shocking to anyone right now. I do expect a pretty close game, too. I just think the atmosphere and energy levels are going to be atrocious.

The big difference for me is that Ahmad Bradshaw has shown very few signs that he’s a competent quarterback. We’ve already discussed his interception ratio and he’s rushed for 173 yards on 73 attempts against Temple, Duke, Wake Forest, and Air Force. Even if he’s 50% better on the ground than that it may not be enough.

If the Irish can neutralize an active and aggresssive set of linebackers from Army the offense should score enough to put this game away.

However, help us all if Bradshaw is completing touchdown passes to Edgar Allan Poe instead of throwing interceptions. Quoth the Kelly “Nevermore.” Game preview over in less than 1,000 words.

Notre Dame 28

Army 24