The MAC league is good for one thing and that is just about every program will go through periods of ups and downs, and the tug and pull in each direction can be as wild as any conference. The cradle of coaches is known for nursing young talent on the sidelines who increase their programs’ prestige before taking off to greener pastures leaving a wake of trophies behind but also a lot of “what do we do now” panic.
Bowling Green is currently going through one of those down periods without trophies.
This is a program that has welcomed Urban Meyer, Dave Clawson, and Dino Babers all within the last 20 seasons and even won 10 games with a MAC title in 2015 during Babers’ final campaign. Since then, the Falcons have receded into a deep and dark funk.
Bowling Green (+46.5) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, October 5, 2019
Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: NBC
For 2016, the BGSU administration thought it was a good idea to hire a running backs coach, Mike Jinks, from Texas Tech of all places. It was not a good idea. Jinks only won 5 of his first 19 league games (.226 winning percentage overall) before being fired just over half way through the 2018 season. That November, BSGU hired Boston College offensive coordinator Scott Loeffler who had the prestige of engineering the 88th ranked SP+ offense in Chestnut Hill and being a former player at Michigan.
Loeffler has since loaded up his staff with coaches with Michigan ties, including his offensive coordinator/offensive line, wide receivers, linebackers, and strength coaches.
The Falcons opened their season with a win over Morgan State but since have been out-scored 149-27 over their last 3 games. As a program, Bowling Green comes in 4-21 in their last 25 games against FBS opponents.
Bowling Green’s Offense
The one thing Bowling Green had going for it offensively was ripped away from them during the off-season. In a league where a good quarterback can take you to the top of the MAC, rising true junior Jarret Doege decided to transfer to West Virginia after starting for a year and a half and being the third-highest rated passer in the league last year.
Instead, the Falcons have turned to Boston College transfer (via a one-year stop at Delaware in which he wasn’t eligible) Darius Wade who has been pretty poor and in the running as the worst quarterback in the MAC for 2019. In his career, Wade is 161 of 285 (56.4%) for 1,755 yards, 8 touchdowns and 8 interceptions with 161 rushing yards on 82 carries.
This season, nearly 40% of Wade’s total offense came in the opener against Morgan State and in the 3 games since he’s thrown for 411 yards at 5.0 yards-per-attempt with zero touchdowns and 3 picks.
Bowling Green lost 1,000-yard receiver Scott Miller from last year and have turned to junior WR Quintin Morris (516 yards, 7 touchdowns last year with 218 yards and 2 touchdowns this year) as their top target with redshirt freshman Julian Ortega-Jones (118 yards) helping senior veteran and 2018 JUCO transfer RB Marlow III (425 career yards).
The Falcons were prepared to go with a committee at running back in 2019 like they did in 2018 but have added Boston College transfer Davon Jones who leads the team with 205 yards. Jones played both running back and linebacker in Chestnut Hill and at 5’10” 235 we’ll see how he deals with the Irish defensive speed.
According to SP+ right now the only offenses worse in FBS than Bowling Green are Akron, UConn, and Old Dominion.
Bowling Green’s Defense
We are approaching 3 full years since Brian VanGorder was fired at Notre Dame. Last year, BVG coordinated the Louisville offense which gave up 44.1 points per game, including allowing over 50 points in 7 separate contests. So far this year, he’s given up at least 50 in half of Bowling Green’s games. His stink also wore off on Oklahoma State as an analyst in 2017 as the Cowboys surrendered 37.6 points per game over their final 6 games.
Initially, VanGorder was hired as the linebackers coach for the Falcons but Carl Pelini–the interim head coach after Jinks’ firing–left to take the same defensive coordinator role at Youngstown State. In stepped VanGorder into that vacuum.
He had to come in and immediately replace 6 out of top 9 tacklers from a horrible 2018 defense. Good news, they’ve moved up to 118th in SP+ defense from 128th last year! They even have 12 sacks already! The aggressive blitzing is working!??
The Falcons leading tackler is JUCO transfer middle linebacker Brandon Perce and you can expect three-year starter Will linebacker Kholbe Coleman to be really active, too. Bowling Green has veteran safeties but is pretty young at corner, including starting 168-pound true freshman JaJuan Hudson, a 2-star recruit from New Jersey.
It could get especially ugly on the defensive interior where the Falcons’ starting tackles weigh 268 and 278 pounds, respectively.
If there’s improvement on the field it wasn’t apparent last week as the 100th ranked SP+ offense and perennial MAC doormat Kent State nearly racked up 400 yards rushing AND passing in a 62-point, 8.93 yards per play effort.
Prediction
Bowling Green is such a massive underdog in this game that it broke their point spread record by 6 whole points as they head to South Bend. Certainly approaching the game this should be the worst team the Irish have faced in the Brian Kelly era, or longer.
Therefore, this isn’t so much about what Bowling Green can or will do on Saturday but what approach Notre Dame takes as massive favorites. The two biggest things to talk about for me include:
Bring in the Backups
The Irish during the Brian Kelly era have a tendency to not overwhelm weaker opponents right away before a flurry of touchdowns puts the game away for good. Against New Mexico earlier this year that included 31 points in the second quarter after a slow start.
We have ample evidence that Notre Dame will be rotating heavily on defense even in the first quarter. Bowling Green even had to simplify their offense and get back to basics this year which should help some of Notre Dame’s backups to still play at a high level. The question is how long before we see the likes of Hunter Spears and Jamion Franklin at defensive line or D.J. Brown and Litchfield Ajavon at safety?
Ian Book vs. BVG’s Pressure
We already know receiver Lawrence Keys is out, Chase Claypool is probable but might not play much, and Chris Finke has been banged up and/or out of form.
I’m sure the Irish will hit on several big plays but there’s a sneaky amount of pressure on Ian Book to handle VanGorder’s self-proclaimed exotic blitz packages and make plays calmly and efficiently with a bunch of receivers he’s not super comfortable with on the field. If Notre Dame doesn’t score on their opening possession or Book’s too herky-jerky early on I bet there is some real tension inside the stadium.
Of course, VanGorder’s revenge won’t end up in a Bowling Green win but he could play a role in destabilizing Ian Book’s confidence which would be…let’s go with sad and disappointing. I’ll predict Book will be just fine, exit pretty early for a nice restful afternoon on the sidelines, and we have an excruciatingly boring 4th quarter.
Over/under 9.5 passes for Jurko?
Over/under 5.5 touches for Kyren Williams?
Over/under 3.5 passes/carries to Lenzy?
Over/under 1.5 BVG fist pumps?
I think we kind of hit cruise control and only end up winning 52-10.
Jurko – I’ll say over, depends on how slow we’re playing near the end.
Kyren – Last time around we saw Mick Assaf getting several carries late, I’m going under here.
Lenzy – Way over.
BVG – 39 separate vacant stares.
Follow-Up: If Jurko goes over 10 passes, over/under 40% of the fanbase calling for him to take Book’s job?
Aren’t we already at 45%??
Jurko – over. He is playing by the 2nd quarter and they let him run the offense for a full 3rd quarter. Clark hands off for the 4th.
Kyren- over. Once up by 3 TDs (if not sooner), it is basically Williams, Davis and C’Bo as the RBs. TJJ gets enough carries to break a sweat but not more, and they protect Smith’s toe. Smith gets carries to get his rhythm back. It wouldn’t surprise me that if the games breaks well for ND, that TJJ is under 5.5 touches.
Lenzy- I would make that the TD number, and probably take the over. I think these will be first snaps Book and Lenzy take together. We get to see if Lenzy can outrun Book’s arm.
BVG- Under, but if he does it, it will only be if he stops us on the first drive.
Looking forward to Darius Wade turning into Jalen Hurts for the first quarter!
Nah, it’s gonna be like that poor New Mexico starting QB who ended up having a negative QB rating….I legit didn’t even know negative ratings existed, thought 0 was the floor. Learn something new all the time.
Hot take, I would rather play games like these than Purdue, army, Vanderbilt
There’s definitely some truth to that.
This is going to be my first completely missed game live since the Pinstripe Bowl and before that I believe the 2007 UCLA game which wasn’t on television. I will get through this.
Agreed. Same thing our hoops team struggles with. Don’t get any credit for beating the 100-150th best teams but there’s a chance you will lose. Play the 200+ team and your guys can get rest and the backups get minutes without the stress of a close game.
Friendly reminder that you can join our Slack chat here:
https://18stripes.com/gameday
The Bowling Green channel is open. Wheeee…