2019 Playoff Big Board: Conference Championship Week

See? I told you Alabama wasn’t going to be in the playoff... The board cleared up considerably this week, and with only a handful of true contenders left we can now get a lot more serious about projecting playoff scenarios. Without the Tide. Heh. The "538 conference championship win probability" is taken from the nifty [...]

By |2019-12-03T20:49:05-05:00December 3rd, 2019|Football|4 Comments

Stanford Review: Feeling Fine After Visiting the Farm

Do we always take away too much from how a football game starts? I think for the most part it matters a lot whether that's fair I cannot say. On Saturday afternoon Pacific time--in a drizzly and windy Palo Alto--the Fighting Irish looked out of sorts and even disinterested while Stanford refused to stand down [...]

By |2019-11-30T23:49:46-05:00November 30th, 2019|Football|37 Comments

Boston College Review: The Streak Continues Until 2020

The home winning streak continues through another off-season. The Irish secured their 18th straight victory in South Bend and will have to wait until September 12, 2020 when Arkansas (under a new head coach, prayers up to that staff) strolls into town to open the home slate for next year. On this Senior Day during [...]

By |2019-11-24T00:22:18-05:00November 24th, 2019|Football|19 Comments

Advanced Stats Review: Navy

The Irish checked all the boxes for a perfect game against Navy - scoring every possession early, forcing turnovers and passing downs, and limiting first down yardage. Second-half garbage time stats obscure in the final box score what was an incredibly dominant performance by Notre Dame against a Navy team that's still competing for the [...]

By |2019-11-21T08:51:39-05:00November 21st, 2019|Football|0 Comments

Week 12 Win Probability Matrix Update

Well... That was fun. Remember that all advanced stats models include adjustments for garbage time, which is defined differently in each model but basically means being up by enough that both teams will change the way they're playing; by any definition, Notre Dame reached garbage time before the half against Navy. What the Irish did [...]

By |2019-11-18T11:03:25-05:00November 18th, 2019|Football|13 Comments
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