What a year. There was a whole lot of weirdness, preseason top ten teams falling on their faces repeatedly, lots of the elite suddenly looking vulnerable, the SEC starting bowl season 1-5… Did you know that this is the first playoff with none of Ohio State, Clemson, or Oklahoma? It’s been running since 2014 and this is the first time none of those three were in it. Crazy. Of course, despite all the chaos of this year, Alabama still made it for the seventh time in eight years (WHY DID YOU GO OUT OF BOUNDS TANK BIGSBY? WHYYYY?!?!?). So some things never change

Big Picture Stuff

What will Notre Dame’s 2021 regular season record be?

  • 12-0 – 10%
  • 11-1 – 37%
  • 10-2 – 45%
  • 9-3 – 8%

8% of the staff picked 11-1, so you all were way more tuned in than we were on this one. Worth noting again that the Vegas O/U on Notre Dame’s win total was 8.5, the SP+ projection was 7.5, the FPI projection was 9.2, and the FEI projection was 9.0. By any preseason model the season was a rousing success. Honest.

If you’re wondering, 17% of the staff picked 12-0 and 67% picked 10-2.

What’s your biggest concern heading into the season?

  • Offensive line play – 43%
  • Cornerbacks – 25%
  • Offensive explosiveness – 13%
  • Receivers – 10%
  • Run game consistency – 4%
  • Quarterback play – 2%
  • Nothing (added specifically for the Rigneys) – 1%
  • Less than 1%:
    • Defensive consistency
    • Defensive ends
    • Traits
    • Having to watch that one game on Peacock

50% of the staff also picked offensive line play; the next biggest concern was offensive explosiveness at 25%. Only 8% picked cornerback play.

The offensive line played much better in the second half of the season. It’s kind of hard to judge their run blocking in the Fiesta Bowl given the game plan, but the protection was certainly excellent against one of the most disruptive fronts in the country. They certainly improved enough to get the job done, at least. The corners, on the other hand… Yikes.

Will Notre Dame be in the playoff discussion on Halloween?

  • Yes – 61%
  • No – 39%

58% of the staff said no. “Yes” looked like a bad bet early, but in the end the Irish were the first team left out. One more conference championship weekend result in their favor might’ve made them the last team in, but alas, it was not to be. Next year Halloween falls right before Clemson’s return trip to South Bend. With the opener in Columbus, if Notre Dame is still in the playoff discussion at that point things will get very interesting indeed.

Superlatives

Who will be Notre Dame’s offensive MVP?

  • Kyren Williams – 42%
  • Michael Mayer – 32%
  • Jack Coan – 15%
  • Kevin Austin – 11%
  • Offensive line – <1%

The staff went 75% for Williams, 17% for Mayer, and 8% for Coan. Mayer had a huge season on his way to setting the school single-season record for receptions and touchdowns by a tight end, and authored a number of high-profile moments in key situations. Still, this absolutely has to go to Kyren – he was the offensive engine both on and off the field. Replacing his presence in 2022 is both a tall order and absolutely vital to team success.

Who will be Notre Dame’s defensive MVP?

  • Kyle Hamilton – 77%
  • Drew White – 7%
  • Marist Liufau – 7% 🙁
  • Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa – 6%
  • Isaiah Foskey – 3%

The staff vote was again similar, with 84% choosing Kyle, 8% MTA, and 8% Kurt Hinish. This is a super interesting vote in hindsight. If Hamilton played the entire season it would unquestionably be him… but he didn’t. He was hurt early against USC, the team’s seventh game, and never returned. He was a dominant presence when he was there, but he was only there for half the year.

Isaiah Foskey, meanwhile, anchored a pass rush that easily set the high mark in sacks for the Brian Kelly (grrrrr) era. The squad registered 41, well ahead of the 34 tallied in 2018 and 2019 and 33 in 2012. Foskey was responsible for 11.0 of those, tied for 10th nationally, led the nation in sack yardage lost with 127, and tied for the national lead with 6 forced fumbles.

For me, the first half defensive MVP was Hamilton and the full-season MVP was Foskey. And he could be coming back…

Which unit will provide the play of the year?

  • Offense – 42%
  • Defense – 54%
  • Special Teams – 4%

67% of the staff tapped the defense versus just 25% for the offense and 8% for special teams.

Chris Tyree’s electric kick return score against Wisconsin seemed to be a shoo-in for this selection. Until Kyren did this:

We’ll miss you buddy.

Who will lead the team in touchdowns from scrimmage?

  • Kyren Williams – 74%
  • Michael Mayer – 11%
  • Kevin Austin – 2%
  • The field – 13%

66% of the staff picked Williams and 17% picked Mayer, with the remaining 17% going to the field.

This was a first-round TKO. Kyren had 17 scores from scrimmage; Mayer and Austin tied for second with 7 scores each. Kyren’s 17 touchdowns stand as the Kelly Era high, surpassing the 15 trips to paydirt by Will Fuller in 2015. 2020 Kyren, 2017 Wimbush, and 2015 Fuller are tied for third with 14 scores.

Who will lead the team in receiving yards?

  • Kevin Austin – 53%
  • Michael Mayer – 22%
  • The field – 25%

Who will lead the team in receptions?

  • Michael Mayer – 74%
  • Kevin Austin – 16%
  • The field – 10%

67% of the staff took Austin to lead in yards with 17% taking Mayer; like you, it flipped with receptions, with 92% for Mayer and 8% for Austin.

As most expected, Austin did indeed lead the team in receiving yards by a fairly narrow margin – 888 to 840, over Mayer. Likewise, Mayer paced the squad in receptions, with 71 to Austin’s 48.

Who will lead the team in sacks?

  • Isaiah Foskey – 31%
  • Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa – 25%
  • Marist Liufau – 19%
  • Jordan Botelho – 6%
  • Drew White – 2%
  • The field – 17%

The staff broke out as 33% for Foskey, 25% for MTA, 8% for Botelho, 8% for Liufau, and 25% for the field. Foskey took this one easily, with the aforementioned 11.0 sacks versus Justin Ademilola’s 5.0.

Who will lead the team in interceptions?

  • Kyle Hamilton – 55%
  • Clarence Lewis – 16%
  • Houston Griffith – 15%
  • Cam Hart – 8%
  • The field – 6%

50% of the staff took Hamilton, 33% took Lewis, 8% Griffith, and 8% the field. Hamilton and fellow safety DJ Brown tied for the team lead here with three picks each, despite Hamilton missing half the year as noted. Jack Kiser and Cam Hart each had two, while Bo Bauer, Drew White, Clarence Lewis, Ramon Henderson, and Tariq Bracy each logged one. The 15 total interceptions tied for 13th nationally.

Who will be the most impactful true freshman whose name does not rhyme with Snake Disher?

  • WR/PR Lorenzo Styles – 60%
  • OG Rocco Spindler – 12%
  • RB Logan Diggs – 8%
  • WR Deion Colzie – 7%
  • K Josh Bryan – 3%
  • QB Tyler Buchner – 2%
  • The field – 8%

Uhhh… I don’t know? You could make a convincing argument for the field given that Joe Alt, who was a critical part of the stabilization of the offensive line, wasn’t on the original list. You could also make a case for Lorenzo Styles, who emerged in the second half of the season and capped it off with a team-leading 8 catches for 126 yards and his first career touchdown in the Fiesta Bowl. Or a case for Logan Diggs, who the staff had to rely on much more than expected given injuries to veterans Chris Tyree and C’bo Flemister, and who paced the rookies with four touchdowns.

And, as if to remind us that he’s still here after starting the opener and leaving that game with a meniscus injury, Blake Fisher came off a nearly four month layoff to, no big deal, start in the Fiesta Bowl and lock down the right side against a strong pass rush.

What a year. The staff again voted similarly, with 67% choosing Styles, 25% Spindler, and 8% the field.

Over/Under

4.5 wins in first 6 games (@ Florida State, Toledo, Purdue, Wisconsin [neutral site], Cincinnati, @ Virginia Tech)

  • Readers: 92% over, 8% under
  • Staff: 100% over

5.5 wins in final 6 games (USC, North Carolina, Navy, @ Virginia, Georgia Tech, @ Stanford)

  • Readers: 36% over, 64% under
  • Staff: 25% over, 75% under

The first half line was really about whether you thought Notre Dame could get a split with Wisconsin and Cincinnati, and clearly almost everyone did. Equally clear is that many thought the back end would be more problematic than it ended up being, so kudos to the optimists here.

+190 point differential (post-2016 average: +187)

  • Readers: 54% over, 46% under
  • Staff: 33% over, 67% under

At midseason, we said this about this line:

Unless the Irish just start obliterating people – which might be on the table – this is very likely going to hit the under. Notre Dame is +40 through the first six games, which means they would have to average a 21.4 point win over the final six plus a bowl game to get to +190.

Well folks, the Irish started obliterating people. Notre Dame ended up scoring 458 points this season, just 20 off the Kelly Era high of 478 logged by the explosive 2015 offense that featured Will Fuller and CJ Prosise. The defense allowed a solid-if-unspectacular 256 points, meaning the final point differential was +202. That’s the second highest differential of the Kelly Era, behind 2019’s +245 (what a weird year that one was).

32.5 30+ yard scrimmage plays (post 2016 average: 32.3)

  • Readers: 65% over, 35% under
  • Staff: 46% over, 55% under

The bowl game pushed this to the over by quite literally the slimmest of margins – the Irish registered 33 such plays this season. Given the early struggles on the offensive line that’s probably a fairly positive indicator of the unit’s overall performance.

Braden Lenzy vs. Kevin Stepherson’s pro-rated 2017 production (39 touches, 707 yards)

  • Readers: 36% over, 64% under
  • Staff: 42% over, 58% under

Lenzy had had 37 touches in 2021, so he was close to the number of opportunities Imaginary KJ had. He was nowhere near the yardage total though, tallying 419 yards on those touches for a middle-of-the-road 11.3 yards per touch. He didn’t start to get opportunities on jet sweeps until later in the year, oddly, and he had some bad luck with beating guys deep and Jack Coan underthrowing him. Still, the numbers are what they are, and feel like a bit of a letdown for a guy who showed some explosive potential in 2019. That year he had 24 touches from scrimmage for 454 yards, good for a very not middle-of-the-road 18.9 yards per touch.

Lenzy has already announced his intention to return to Notre Dame for one final ride in 2022. With Austin moving on and the status – both presence and health – of Avery Davis and Joe Wilkins up in the air, Lenzy will have plenty of opportunity to prove that the 2019 version was the real deal. Let’s hope.

33% third down conversion defense (last year: 31.4%, 11th in FBS)

  • Readers: 56% over, 44% under
  • Staff: 67% over, 33% under

Notre Dame finished at 32.24% here, which is a solid achievement given how bad things looked after the first couple of games. You might think the bowl game drove this up, but believe it or not Oklahoma State’s offense actually did very poorly overall on third down, going 3/14 (21.43%). Unfortunately for Irish fans most of those failures came in the first half and they didn’t face many third downs in the second half. Sigh.

3,000 passing yards by Jack Coan (Ian Book last season: 2,830 in 12 games)

  • Readers: 63% over, 37% under
  • Staff: 42% over, 58% under

At the halfway point Coan was averaging a hair over 200 yards a game and seemed very unlikely to hit this mark. The offensive line’s improvement coupled with softer opposing defenses gave him a shot at it, and he dropped a career performance in the Fiesta Bowl to hit the over – a whopping 509 passing yards to put him at 3,150 on the season.

2.5 consensus All-Americans for Notre Dame (first or second team)

  • Readers: 49% over, 51% under
  • Staff: 42% over, 58% under

It’s quite the testament to Kyle Hamilton’s extraordinary talent that he appeared in 6+ games and still garnered consensus All-American status – Walter Camp, the AFCA, and the FWAA all named him to their first teams. He made the AP’s second team and was left off the Sporting News’s teams entirely (jerks).

Officially, unanimous and consensus status only applies to first teamers, but we bent it a bit for this line to apply unofficially to second teamers as well. As it turns out even with bending the Irish ended up with only Hamilton in this category – Michael Mayer made the AFCA and Sporting News second teams and the AP third team, while Kyren Williams made only the Sporting News’s second team.

Kyren unfortunately labored behind a sub-par offensive line for a good chunk of the season and didn’t have anywhere near the numbers that some other backs had, so while I don’t agree with it I get it. Mayer was a dominant force all year but he and everyone else were locked out of the first team by Colorado State’s Trey McBride, who earned unanimous status for his 90-catch season. Georgia’s diaper dandy Brock Bowers and Coastal Carolina’s Isaiah Likely also got some second team selections, blocking Mayer’s quasi-consensus second team status. We’ll see what happens in 2022.

4.5 announcer chuckles over Kyren Williams undressing someone in the open field

  • Readers: 62% over, 38% under
  • Staff: 83% over, 17% under

Freaking blocking problems. I think Kyren earned one of these with his 10 yard score against Virginia Tech, in which he ran through at least 17 different guys by my count. He finally got a little room to run in that game, which is hopefully a harbinger of things to come.

14.5 mentions of Jack Coan’s lacrosse background

  • Readers: 74% over, 26% under
  • Staff: 83% over, 17% under

19.5 mentions of how Coan always wanted to go to Notre Dame

  • Readers: 69% over (nice), 31% under
  • Staff: 67% over, 33% under

10.5 in-game camera shots of an exasperated Brian Kelly

  • Readers: 67% over, 33% under
  • Staff: 42% over, 58% under

This was the midseason comment here:

I haven’t gone back to check the film, but I’m pretty sure we hit the over on all of these by the second or at most third game. I should’ve been more aggressive in setting the line.

Doubled this line up, I’m pretty sure. Whoops.

Prop Bets

We’ll see the first Power 5 coach canned in…

  • September: Readers 12%, Staff 33%
  • October: Readers 55%, Staff 58%
  • November: Readers 30%, Staff 8%
  • December: Readers 3%, Staff 0%

That first hot seat ejection will be…

  • Scott Frost: Readers 21%, Staff 33%
  • Justin Fuente: Readers 18%, Staff 8%
  • Herm Edwards: Readers 17%, Staff 8%
  • Dino Babers: Readers 12%, Staff 25%
  • Clay Helton: Readers 5%, Staff 0%
  • Jim Harbaugh: Readers 4%, Staff 8%
  • Jeff Brohm: Readers 3%, Staff 0%
  • The field: Readers 20%, Staff 17%

Helton took the, uh, trophy here by going down in September. Frost is somewhat inexplicably safe after posting one of the most competitive bad seasons… ever, maybe? Nebraska was 1-8 in conference play despite a point differential of (no joke) exactly zero in those games – they beat Northwestern by 49 and lost the other eight conference games by a combined 49 points. They were 3-9 overall with a point differential of +28; for contrast, the they’re-not-as-bad-as-they-looked 2016 season saw Notre Dame go 4-8 with a point differential of +37. Remarkable.

Harbaugh posted his best season at Michigan before getting shellacked by Georgia in the playoff. He’s safe, although there are rumors of mutual interest with a couple of NFL teams. Brohm led Purdue to a 9-4 record and a Music City Bowl win over Tennessee, which might be the high water mark for Purdue football. Edwards and Babers had middling seasons – don’t be distracted by the Sun Devils’ 8-5 record, they were 1-5 against FBS .500+ teams – but apparently did enough to be safe. Fuente and Virginia Tech had a mutual parting or conscious uncoupling or whatever in November.

There were some big names in the field as well. Ed Orgeron was advance-fired in October – told he wasn’t coming back next year but asked to finish the season – a mere 21 months after winning a national title. Good luck, Brian… Texas Tech moved on from Matt Wells after a 5-3 start to this season, convinced that his 8-14 stretch in 2019-20 was more reflective of his abilities.

TCU announced a mutual parting with Gary Patterson on Halloween night; reading between the lines, it sounded like they wanted the same thing LSU wanted with Orgeron and Patterson said no thanks. Florida hit the eject button on Dan Mullen in November, after about a month or so of him almost seeming like he wanted to be fired.

In the Evergreen State, Washington also sent Jimmy Lake packing in November after disappointing performances and a series of missteps made it quite clear he was in way over his head, while Washington State canned Nick Rolovich when the state’s highest paid employee refused to comply with the state’s vaccine mandate for state employees. Back east, Duke worked out a deal with David Cutcliffe for him to ride off into the sunset. In December, Miami finally fired Manny Diaz after allowing him to twist in the wind very publicly while they investigated other options.

Those are just the Power 5 jobs that opened up due to the school wanting to make a change. The Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Virginia jobs opened up due to the coach wanting to make a change. For Virginia, Bronco Mendenhall decided to step away to spend time with his family and left open the possibility of a return (not sure how the new guy, former Clemson OC Tony Elliott, would feel about that). Oregon lost their guy for the second time in two years – first Willie Taggart to Florida State, now Mario Cristobal to Miami.

Oklahoma lost Lincoln Riley and Notre Dame lost Brian Kelly to lateral moves that are quite literally unprecedented in the modern era of college football. The last time it happened at Oklahoma was in 1947, when Jim Tatum left for Maryland; the last time it happened at Notre Dame was in 1907, when Thomas Barry left for Wisconsin. Little wonder that the two fan bases had no idea what to do with themselves initially.

What a year. (Have I said that already?)

The first Power 5 COVID-related forfeit will occur in the…

  • SEC: Readers 38%, Staff 17%
  • Pac 12: Readers 25%, Staff 25%
  • Big Ten: Readers 17%, Staff 8%
  • Big 12: Readers 12%, Staff 33%
  • ACC: Readers 8%, Staff 17%

In what week?

  • Week 0: Readers <1%, Staff 0%
  • Week 1: Readers 10%, Staff 17%
  • Week 2: Readers 40%, Staff 42%
  • Week 3: Readers 32%, Staff 8%
  • Week 4: Readers 3%, Staff 0%
  • Later: Readers 14%, Staff 33%

I really thought this would come from the Big 12 by October at the latest, but it ended up being the Pac 12 in November. The Nov. 13th Cal-USC game was postponed a month due to a COVID outbreak in Cal’s program. The conference’s preseason protocols seemed to imply that games were unlikely to be made up; a cynical person might suspect that this one was scheduled to be made up to try to help USC, who was 4-5 at the time, limp to bowl eligibility. Hilariously, the tough-as-ever Trojans lost at home to UCLA and BYU, making bowl eligibility a moot point, and then traveled up to Cal and dropped the makeup game too for good measure.

Fight on, indeed.

Any Notre Dame player will finish higher in the Heisman voting than Ian Book did last year…

  • True: Readers 36%, Staff 36%
  • False: Readers 64%, Staff 64%

Umm… No.

More scrimmage yards for…

  • Kyren Williams and Braden Lenzy: Readers 51%, Staff 42%
  • Kevin Austin and Michael Mayer: Readers 34%, Staff 42%
  • Chris Tyree and Kevin Austin: Readers 15%, Staff 16%

At the halfway point, Williams/Lenzy had 778, Austin/Mayer had 677, and Tyree/Austin had 546. It ended up being much tighter than it looked like it would be, although of course that was helped by Williams missing the bowl game. On the other hand, Mayer missed the Virginia Tech game, so maybe that evens out.

In the end, Williams/Lenzy had 1,783 yards, Austin/Mayer had 1,746, and Tyree/Austin had 1,376. Photo finish.

Jon Doerer will overtake Allen Pinkett as Notre Dame’s second all-time leading scorer (needs 111 points, had 93 last year and 108 in 2019).

  • Readers: 35% true, 65% false
  • Staff: 17% true, 83% false

Doerer ended the season with 100 points. He missed five field goals and one extra point, so he would’ve had to be nearly perfect in the opportunities available to him to hit this line. He finishes his career ranked third all-time with 309 points, between Pinkett (320) and Craig Hentrich (294). Justin Yoon is the all-time leader with a massive 367. Even with four other modern kickers in the top ten, it feels like it might be a long time before we see someone catch Yoon.

Incidentally, Yoon also holds Notre Dame’s all-time record for career field goal accuracy at 80.8%; it may surprise you to learn that Doerer is second there at 75.4%, just ahead of John Carney. Kicking is hard.

The final season stats will include more…

  • Pass attempts by Drew Pyne: Readers 47%, Staff 50%
  • Rush attempts by Tyler Buchner: Readers 53%, Staff 50%

At the halfway point Pyne had 30 pass attempts and Buchner had 26 rush attempts; even so, the writing was already on the wall about where this one was trending and that writing was, in fact, prophetic. Pyne vanished from the game plan at that point while Buchner would go on to record an additional 20 rushing attempts. Buchner actually topped Pyne in passing attempts too at 35.

Notre Dame will have a top 20 SP+ offense and defense (last year: 19th offense, 20th defense).

  • True: 56% Readers, 58% Staff
  • False: 44% Readers, 42% Staff

There is a timeline in which the offense figured something out against Virginia Tech and then runs roughshod over the rest of the schedule, but it’s hard to see it being that good no matter what they figured out.

Again, whoops.

This seemed absurdly out of reach the last time we checked on it, when the offense ranked 43rd and the defense ranked 13th. However, entering the bowl game the offense sat at 20th and the defense was still at 13th. The Oklahoma State defense was 5th heading into the game, so SP+ will be impressed by the performance the Irish put up on that side of the ball. It will be, uh, less impressed with the defense’s performance, but they will probably still end up in the top 20.

All in all, it’s a substantial achievement. Not good enough – a playoff participant would typically be top ten on one side of the ball and top 20 on the other, a championship game participant top ten on both sides – but given all the roster churn and general upheaval around the team this year, still pretty good.

Notre Dame’s highest ranked end-of-season opponent per the playoff committee will be…

  • #12 Wisconsin: Readers 32%, Staff 25%
  • #8 Cincinnati: Readers 28%, Staff 25%
  • #10 North Carolina: Readers 24%, Staff 25%
  • #15 USC: Readers 17%, Staff 25%

This ended up being #4 Cincinnati by a very wide margin – none of the other three ended up ranked in the committee’s last effort. Wisconsin may have clawed their way back in after knocking off Arizona State in their bowl game, but… Not great.

Notre Dame’s highest ranked end-of-season win (not counting a potential bowl game) will be…

  • Wisconsin: Readers 29%, Staff 25%
  • The field: Readers 71%, Staff 75%

This will be an interesting one. It will likely be Wisconsin, who was second in the “others receiving votes” category of the pre-bowl AP poll and first in the Coaches. Purdue will almost certainly end up ranked in the AP poll, at least, where they were the fifth team out and saw quite a bit of carnage in front of them. Purdue was way out of the Coaches poll though, with one solitary sad-trombone point.

Wrapping Up

Notre Dame held preseason promise, seemed headed for catastrophe three games in, dropped a frustratingly winnable game against a top ten opponent at home, righted the ship in emphatic fashion against an overmatched back half of the schedule, lost its head coach, found his replacement on staff and became… a lovable underdog in the national discourse?, jumped out to a 28-3 lead in a major bowl against a top ten opponent, and watched it gradually come crashing down en route to a 37-35 loss that reminded us all that our rookie head coach is, well, a rookie.

What do we make of all that? Quite honestly, I have no idea. 2021 was one of the craziest roller coasters I’ve ever been on in my near 30 years as an Irish fan, and there a national level of crazy like nothing I’ve seen other than the wild 2007 season. That year we had two-loss national champion LSU. Not only did they have two losses, but both of their losses came when they were ranked #1, the second coming to an unranked team in their final regular season game. USC, the end-of-year #2, lost to 41-point underdog Stanford at home, led by upstart coach Jim Harbaugh. Then-FCS Appalachian State knocked off then-#5 Michigan, ending the game by blocking Michigan’s game winning field goal attempt.

2021 wasn’t quite that crazy in the end (WHY, TANK BIGSBY?!?!?), but it was something. Here’s hoping the 2022 season holds an equal amount of entertainment for Irish fans, but that it’s all positive this time around.