Well, that escalated quickly. This past Wednesday a handful of reports surfaced that a committee was working on a plan to expand the College Football Playoff and by the early afternoon on Thursday, June 10th the CFP Working Group came out with details on a proposal that would enlarge the post-season to 12 teams.

This did seem inevitable and there’s a possibility the playoffs will expand just over a decade  of first coming into the sport and that’s pretty wild. The current ESPN playoff TV deal runs through the 2025 season with reports suggesting a 12-team tournament could come as early as 2023 or 2024.

Today, we’ll break down the proposal and see what’s good and bad, both for Notre Dame and the sport as a whole.

Proposal: 12 Teams

It had to be this way with any expansion. For a long time, people all over the country developed plans for a 6-team playoff while an 8-team tournament was always the most common initiative. Moving to 12 makes the most sense for everyone involved, from Notre Dame, to the Power 5, and to the Group of 5 teams.

Of course, the drawback here is the devaluation of the regular season at the expense of a greater number of important post-season games, plus a further devaluation of the small and mid-tier bowl games, but this is a feature that we’ve always had to accept once the playoff door was opened.

A few years back when Brian Kelly mentioned he favored an 8-team playoff I proposed a system that included double byes for the top 2 seeds and that aspect was reviled. Everyone tries to facilitate between creating a fair playoff with something that protects the regular season but also doesn’t make it too easy for the dominant teams across the country. Double byes are a great way to protect the epic undefeated showdowns but I think most would agree propping up the regular season is mostly lip service.

If there’s anything that’s been painfully clear about the playoff-era it’s that we largely have 2 groups of fans: Those who prioritize fairness and access at the expense of the regular season and those who generally don’t like the playoffs anyway. The latter group has officially taken their ball and gone home.

Adopting a 12-team playoff ultimately plants a flag in the ground that fairness and access will win out. This is the most sustainable solution moving forward and is one of the best decisions college football will have made this century.

Proposal: 6 Highest Ranked Conference Champions Get Auto-Bids

This seems bad at first but notice the verbiage is such that Power 5 conference winners do not automatically get a bid. “No conference would qualify automatically.” It is the 6 highest ranked league champions, which in theory, leaves the door open for a Power 5 champion to be left out.

For example, last year Oregon finished #25 in the final playoff poll and would’ve missed the 12-team tournament altogether as the 4 other Power 5 champions, plus #8 Cincinnati and #12 Coastal Carolina (although technically their league title game was cancelled) got in instead. Even Mountain West champions #22 San Jose State would’ve been in over Oregon.

However, last year’s pandemic shortened season was super weird and unlikely to unfold that way the vast majority of the time.

For example, prior to last year each of the conference champion auto-bids would’ve gone to the following teams in the playoff era in this new framework:

2019: All Power 5, plus 12-1 Memphis
2018: All Power 5, plus 12-0 UCF
2017: All Power 5, plus 12-0 UCF
2016: All Power 5, plus 13-0 Western Michigan
2015: All Power 5, plus 12-1 Houston
2014: All Power 5, plus 11-2 Boise State

We like to pretend that the major conferences sometimes give us a 9-4 or 8-5 champion–or that the threat of this happening is horrific to our sensibilities–but it’ll always be super rare. And, in the event that it does happen that league champion now has a real shot (or at least a much likelier shot than ever before) at missing the playoffs.

Although, if you’re a skeptic it’ll be important to see if any mediocre teams who are poised to play in their Power 5 league title game slowly get bumped up the rankings late in the season in order to secure a playoff spot should they win. Again, I don’t think this will be a problem as I believe any 4-loss and certainly 5-loss Power 5 champion will be left out.

Proposal: 6 Other Ranked Teams Get In

This is good that nothing funky is going to happen with the other 6 playoff spots. There really isn’t a ton of controversy here, which is kind of the point when increasing to 12 teams overall. Just get the best teams in without any strings attached.

The biggest threat is a really poor non-Power 5 conference champion crashing the party but this would seem to be unlikely most of the time. Take the 8 Group of 5 teams mentioned above who would’ve made the expanded playoff scenario since 2014 and notice they went a combined 92-5 through conference championship week with 5 undefeated seasons total.

Proposal: No Limits on Teams from a Conference

In retrospect it’s wild to see 2019 Alabama being left out with a 10-2 record from a 12-team field which is weird because with an expanded playoff perhaps the biggest fear across the country is that it’ll be flooded by SEC teams. Here’s the Power 5 conference breakdown over the last 3 seasons with a 12-team playoff:

SEC: 11
BIG 10: 9
BIG 12: 5
ACC: 3
PAC-12: 3

Notre Dame and G5 teams would’ve eaten up 6 other bids in this timeframe.

You have to wonder if the playoff committee is going to start really giving the benefit of the doubt to blue-blood programs that are perceived as elite like Alabama back in 2019? That season, the Tide sat at No. 5 in their rankings and the Iron Bowl loss prevented Alabama from entering the SEC Championship. Plus, they put 3-loss Auburn at No. 12 one spot ahead of Alabama and what would’ve happened? Both teams would’ve missed the playoffs in this proposed 12-team field.

Obviously, 12-1 Memphis grabbing the No. 12 seed in 2019 as the 6th highest rated conference champion is one thing but it’ll be the teams like No. 11 Utah (10-2) and No. 10 Penn State (10-2) from that season who may be reshuffled in the future to be left out in favor of perceived “better” Alabama.

Proposal: 4 Highest Ranked Conference Champs Receive 1st Round Bye

Here’s where Notre Dame loses out. Admittedly, at first this seemed like an egregious mistake and even an unfair hand to deal the Irish. Upon further reflection, I think it’s okay.

The lack of a conference championship game, and therefore a bye to the rest of the world, I get it. When it comes to handing out a bye in the playoffs I can see the viewpoint from other programs on this one. With just a 4-team playoff less so, but with an expanded field I understand the thinking.

As long as the Irish don’t develop into an Alabama-like machine where the rest of the country knows we’re without a doubt a top 1-3 team every single year this lack of a playoff bye shouldn’t be too bad. If Notre Dame gets to that level, well, it’s super weird at best to not get a playoff bye and I wonder if things will be re-visited later down the road.

For the record, with this setup Notre Dame would’ve been a No. 5 seed in each of 2018 and 2020 and faced No. 12 Penn State and No. 12 Coastal Carolina in each of those seasons, respectively.

Proposal: 1st Round Higher Ranked Teams Host On-Campus Games

Thank goodness this looks like it’ll be a feature of the expanded playoff. Even though the Irish are shut out of a playoff bye at least there’s the proposal that they’d always be hosting a home game in the first round if Notre Dame is ranked really high all season long and at the final College Football Playoff rankings.

We’ll see how the money gets divided up between teams but being able to add a playoff home game pretty much any year the Irish are in contention is a major bonus. I’m not sure I would say this outweighs being unable to get a bye but if we’re able to see 4, 5, or 6 playoff games inside Notre Dame Stadium over a 10-year period once this plan goes into effect you have to admit that could be pretty incredible.

One worry did jump out to me, though: That No. 12 seed will often be a Group of 5 team which you could argue opens Notre Dame up to the unwanted “lose-lose” matchups of beating a team you should beat but also falling on your face at home against an inferior team. But, this is only likely if the Irish consistently get the No. 5 seed which I guess we can’t really guarantee would happen more often than not.

Proposal: Quarterfinals & Semifinals at Bowl Games, Championship at Neutral Site

We can’t kill these bowl games yet! I personally would’ve been floored if the committee hadn’t recommended bowl games for the quarterfinals while adding on-campus games for the 1st round and it looks like this is how they’ll continue for the foreseeable future. Using the 12-team template, 2020 would’ve looked something like this:

2020 FIRST ROUND – December 26th
#12 Coastal Carolina at #5 Notre Dame
#11 Indiana at #6 Texas A&M
#10 Iowa State at #7 Florida
#9 Georgia at #8 Cincinnati

2020 QUARTERFINALS – January 2nd
#8 Cincinnati vs. #1 Alabama [Peach Bowl]
#7 Florida vs. #2 Clemson [Cotton Bowl]
#6 Texas A&M vs. #3 Ohio State [Orange Bowl]
#5 Notre Dame vs. #4 Oklahoma [Fiesta Bowl]

2020 SEMIFINALS – January 9th 
#4 Oklahoma vs. #1 Alabama [Rose Bowl]
#3 Ohio State vs. #2 Clemson [Sugar Bowl]

2020 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP – January 19th
#2 Clemson vs. #1 Alabama [Miami, FL]

I’m still thinking about the money in this scenario. Notre Dame would A) not play Alabama right away like they did in real life last year B) hosts a home game C) would maybe be favored over Oklahoma in the quarterfinals and end up playing 3 playoff games. This seems like a gold mine and at the very least a pretty entertaining ride to the semifinals.

This makes me think that there will be some sort of revenue sharing system, especially for Notre Dame not being in a conference, since the likes of Alabama and Clemson would be losing out on an extra home game. I’m curious to see how this plays out, especially if we begin to see more upsets than in recent years. After a while, I think the pressure will grow from the 4 bye teams to get the advantage of hosting their quarterfinal games on campus.

Obviously, a 12-team playoff crushes the mid-tier bowl games which frankly I think is great news. For example, North Carolina and Oregon got major bowl bids as lower ranked teams last year and in this 12-team scenario they would be moved down to 2nd-tier bowl games while Indiana and Coastal Carolina make the playoffs. In terms of name recognition that might not be a terrible trade-off for the 2nd-tier bowls but year after year they’d be getting lower ranked teams to fill their spots. With more attention paid to the 12 playoffs spots this will have a cascading effect of decreasing the importance and spotlight of those bowls.

Notre Dame Wins

I was really surprised that the initial reaction to the news of this proposed expansion plan was that it was terrible for Notre Dame–and even more shocking–that the lack of a bye within the playoff meant the Irish were going to join a conference. I’ll sum up this proposal in 3 ways:

#1 Independence Day

There was a chance that the playoffs expanded to 6 or 8 teams with Power 5 champion auto-qualifiers for the former and 6 conference champions auto-qualifiers for the latter system. Either scenario would’ve brought Notre Dame’s independence to its knees.

That Notre Dame was able to navigate a 4-team playoff without any conference auto-bids which is now looking to be followed up by a 12-team playoff with plenty of room to qualify is a massive win to retain independence. The lack of a bye (for now) is fine given that this saves Notre Dame’s independent status while at the same time making it nearly a lock that 1-loss Irish teams (and maybe occasionally a 2-loss team) get into the playoffs with little fuss.

In fact, short of a Super League forming maybe decades down the road I think this essentially saves Notre Dame’s independence for my lifetime. Even more so once they expand to 12 teams they will never, ever reduce the field in the future.

#2 Shifting Importance

An expanded field of 12 teams pretty much signals the end of the traditional bowl system in my opinion. It may take a long time from here on out but eventually the bowls in the quarterfinals and semi-finals could go away in favor of on-campus games. Once we start witnessing playoff games on campus it’s going to be a wild elixir that fans will demand even more of down the road. It may take a while, but I think we’ll get there eventually after the 1st round.

In general, there’s no turning back now (not that there ever was since 2014) and I’d expect college football to remain at 12 teams for a long time while some day in the future the dear Rose Bowl will be played by non-playoff teams.

#3 Greater Playoff Access

For whatever reason the loudest objections I’ve seen to the proposal for Notre Dame are coming from different points. One side is saying that not getting a bye and being forced to win 4 playoff games makes it much harder to win a title while the other side is critical that the Irish are taking the easy way out through much easier access to the playoffs while welcoming the money of an extra home game and merchandise sales of watered down playoff victories in the 1st round.

Of course an expanded playoff is going to make it more difficult to win a championship, what was anyone expecting? Notre Dame doesn’t hold all the cards and chose to jump on greater playoff access as an independent. If that’s considered watering things down then so be it.

It also means more bites at the apple to be in the tournament to win a title, something that shouldn’t be overlooked. I’m not sure the lack of a bye in the 1st round of the playoffs truly moves the probability of a title when either way Alabama or Clemson will be standing in the way to glory eventually.

I think that worry about a lack of a bye is largely rooted in the belief that Notre Dame isn’t as talented as those elite programs and a 12-0 regular season only to be placed 5th is an unfair burden for the Irish. I see that side of things but I also see a negotiating Alabama playing No. 7 Florida in 2020 and No. 5 Georgia in 2018 (2 of the closest victories in the Saban era) in the SEC Championship while the Irish are resting and I’m not sure Notre Dame having the burden of a home playoff game against far inferior Coastal Carolina and Penn State squads (while Alabama rests) is really all that bad.

End of the day, Notre Dame has to prove it on the field. I think there’s a chance–if the Irish keep winning at a high level and break through in the playoffs with some big wins–that the bye rule may be revisited. Perhaps a clause can be put in where an undefeated Notre Dame who beat a final ranked top 5 opponent can receive a 1st round bye but never with 1-loss or more. Either way, the biggest obstacle remains beating the likes of Alabama and the layout of the playoffs isn’t changing that problem.