As the halfway point of the regular season approaches, how are contenders looking across conferences? Who are the current playoff favorites, and what teams could be spoilers in the November chaos?

Introduction

To simplify this early preview, let’s operate under this assumption: A zero or 1-loss team that wins a Power Five conference is in. Only in 2014 was a team like this left out, when TCU and Baylor were “co-champions” of the Big 12. Not coincidentally, there’s now a Big 12 title game to prevent this. In the past ten years, that’s also the only season where more than four P5 teams won their conference with only one loss or less. Early returns on this season don’t project another outlier, with lots of top teams already losing and many big conference games still to be played.

 

Let’s preview by conference, going from most to least likely chance of being shut out of the playoff. I’m going to hold off on any Notre Dame speculation until after at least USC and probably NC State, because I believe in jinxes and not getting my hopes up. I’m also writing this prior to Friday and Saturday’s games, so if something crazy happens that makes something below irrelevant, keep that in mind.

Big 12

The Big 12 might be the best conference this year – there’s a couple bad teams in Kansas and Baylor (who though winless certainly isn’t cakewalk with their level of talent) and then a lot very solid teams. The conference has 7 of the top 37 teams in S&P+, including three of the top 14 (Oklahoma in 8th, Oklahoma State 10th, and TCU 14th).

The Favorite: TCU

The only undefeated team left in the conference, I think you have to give a slight edge to the Horned Frogs even if you don’t believe they are the best team in the conference. They have a really strong win in Stillwater, and are far more balanced (9th in Offensive S&P+ and 29th in the Defensive S&P+) than Oklahoma (1st / 64th) and Oklahoma State (2nd / 51st).

The problem for TCU and the Big 12 as a whole though is that their conference strength and relatively parity I think will generate too many losses down the stretch this year. Gary Patterson’s crew has to survive a trip to see Bill Snyder this weekend, host Texas and travel to Oklahoma in back to back weeks, and not trip up like the Sooners did in Ames. Survive all those games and a sneaky trip to Lubbock with only one-loss, and their reward will be a conference title game rematch likely against Oklahoma or Okie State to hold onto their playoff hopes. Yikes.

Contenders:

Oklahoma: Even with a bad loss, the Sooners had one of the best wins of any team in the nation at Ohio State. If they win out, they’ll be in, so Lincoln Riley’s team at least controls their destiny. But the chances they survive the rest of their schedule, which has only one team outside the S&P+ top 40, are not good.

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys and Mike Gundy’s glorious mullet are in a similar boat to their in-state rivals, just without the benefit of a strong non-conference win. Still, I think if the Pokes could win out – the main challenge coming in a three game stretch traveling to Texas and West Virginia and then hosting Bedlam – they’d be in. But history doesn’t look kindly on teams that are as weak on one side of the ball as the two Oklahoma schools.

The Spoiler: Texas

The Longhorns aren’t making the playoff with two losses already, but they are super dangerous to the remaining contenders. Texas has a defense (30th in S&P+) capable of slowing down the high-powered offenses in the conference, and Tom Herman has a strong track record getting his teams ready for big games. Victory for them this year might be ruining some rivals chances at a more meaningful postseason trip.

Chaos Scenario: The Big 12 Championship bites them in the butt

With all of the parity in the conference it wouldn’t shock me for the Big 12 Championship to not even have playoff implications, with both contenders having lost twice. But it’s also easy to envision a world where TCU plays well and trips up just once down the stretch, let’s say to two-loss Oklahoma. In previous years the Horned Frogs would be a strong playoff contender as a one-loss conference champion. But now with the reintroduction of the Big 12 Championship, TCU would have to avenge their loss to the Sooners to hold on to the conference’s playoff hopes. The Horned Frogs lose again and the Big 12 is out for the third time in four years of the playoff.

Pac 12
The Favorite: Washington

I think Chris Petersen can coach a little bit, and the Huskies are sitting pretty despite his complaints about TV coverage. Washington played a cupcake non-conference schedule of Rutgers, Montana, and Fresno State, but since entering Pac-12 play they’ve shredded the bottom of the conference. The challenge comes after an October 21 bye, when they finish with UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, Utah, and Washington State. Somehow only one of those games is an away game though, in Palo Alto. No one seems to be excited about this team returning to the playoff, but they have a 25% chance of running the table and 40% chance of finishing 11-1, per S&P+.

Contenders:

Washington State: The Cougars have much better wins that their neighbors to the west so far, beating three top-40 teams in Boise State, USC, and Oregon. Their defense currently stands at 18th in S&P+, and a Mike Leach offense with that type of support is a frightening idea for the rest of the conference. If the pirate ship can survive a visit from Stanford, the last two weeks at Utah and at Washington are tough. It seems extremely likely that the Apple Cup will be a winner-take-all game for the Pac-12 North.

USC: The Trojans were a fantastic second half team last year, and if they can pull off that type of magic again, they’ll make the playoff. It’s a decently tough slate with no bye weeks for some unknown reason, but make it through Utah and Notre Dame in the next two weeks and there’s light at the end of tunnel (at ASU, vs Arizona, at Colorado, vs UCLA). That could set up a Pac-12 Championship against an undefeated or 1-loss North division champion above that’s a de-facto play-in game for the CFP.

The Spoiler: Stanford

While it’d be more fun to watch David Shaw’s team finish 7-5, the Cardinal will have the opportunity to put major dents in Washington, Washington State, and (gulp) Notre Dame’s postseason chances. The Stanford defense has been very mediocre, the offense aka Bryce Love is ranked 8th in Offensive S&P+. The passing game has been really bad (86th in Passing Success Rate, 125th in Passing IsoPPP aka offensive explosiveness), but if the Cardinal can jump out to an early lead they’d love to do nothing but run the ball in a second half and hope the defense holds.

Chaos Scenario: Trojans avenge Mike Leach

The Huskies run the table, defeating previously unbeaten Washington State at home in a massive Apple Cup game. Chris Petersen’s team faces a two-loss (to WSU and ND) USC in the Pac-12 title game and the Trojans spoil their undefeated season again. The end results is a 11-2 conference champ USC, an 11-1 Cougar team that beat them, and a 12-1 Washington team that’s probably out in part due to the weak nonconference schedule.

ACC

The ACC again is one of the deeper power five leagues, with five teams cracking the current S&P+ top 20 (although FSU is likely on the way out). The biggest developments from the first half of the season are Clemson maintaining championship-level performance despite key losses and NC State and Miami taking mini-leaps forward.

The Favorite: Clemson

If the playoff committee released rankings this weekend, the Tigers would probably be the #1 seed. Kelly Bryant has nicely filled in the Deshaun Watson-sized hole at QB, leading the team in rushing (already over 500 yards) and completing 67% of his passes. The defense is still full of mutants and ranks #2 in Defensive S&P+. Clemson has top-20 victories over Auburn, Louisville, and Virginia Tech, with the latter two coming on the road.

The schedule has one interesting stretch left, a three week circuit hosting Georgia Tech, traveling to NC State, and then hosting FSU. I could see Dabo Swinney’s group dropping one of those games, but unless it’s to the Wolfpack the Tigers will win another Atlantic division title. The most interesting scenario would be a matchup with Miami with a playoff berth on the line.

Contenders

Miami: Don’t look now, but Mark Richt’s crew will likely be favored in every remaining regular season game. There’s only three opponents left inside the S&P+ top 40, and the Canes get Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame all at home. Even with a loss in one of those games, Miami is still the favorite in the Coastal division. And if you they knock off the defending champs in the ACC title game – a big if – it’s hard to imagine the U getting left out.

NC State: The Pack shot themselves in the foot with a bad loss to South Carolina in the opener in a game where they outplayed the Gamecocks (77% win expectancy). Dave Doeren’s team has looked very good since, beating a regrouping but talented FSU team in Tallahassee and soundly beating Louisville at home. State’s defense has probably been a little worse than expected as a whole, but the offense has been extremely efficient behind QB Ryan Finley. After the bye the Wolfpack have Notre Dame and Clemson back to back – I don’t see them taking both of those games, but with strong opportunities they still control their playoff fate and could at least secure a New Year’s Day bowl berth.

Spoiler: Georgia Tech

Notre Dame fans are well aware of the havoc the triple option can wreak on more talented teams, chewing up clock and trying to even the playing field with fewer possessions per team. S&P+ has this edition of Paul Johnson’s Yellow Jackets as a top-25 team, with a decent defense to pair with the usual hyper-efficient offense. The Jackets will have to do it on the road in the ACC, but ruining Miami, Clemson, or Georgia’s seasons wouldn’t come as a shock at all.

Chaos Scenario: Irish ACC Champs

Notre Dame beats both NC State and Miami, but the Wolfpack rebound to upset Clemson and go undefeated in ACC games. That results in an NC State-Miami title game, which the Canes take to finish 12-1. But with the head to head win and a much tougher schedule, 11-1 Notre Dame is taken over the ACC winner. Clemson becomes a controversial pick for the #4 spot and gets in over 1-loss Pac-12 champ Washington, which sends Chris Petersen off the deep end.

Big Ten

Our good non-friends in the B1G had a lot of preseason hype, and that’s been diminished a bit by early losses suffered by Ohio State and Michigan. Still, the Big Ten has four teams in the latest S&P+ top 15 and two of the top four (Ohio State and Penn State). It also wouldn’t be the first time Urban Meyer turned an early season loss into a playoff appearance. Most of the conference intrigue still remains, as the round-robin between the Buckeyes, Nittany Lions, and Wolverines will dictate who plays Wisconsin in the conference title game.

The Favorite: Ohio State

If the college football playoff and BCS have taught us much, it’s that losing early is the way to go. For the Buckeyes it’s taken out any margin for error, since a second loss (even if they go on to still win the conference) makes them dependent on other conferences falling flat. Even with some tough contests remaining though, you have to begrudgingly like Ohio State’s chances – S&P+ currently gives them a 35% chance at finishing 11-1 even with games left against Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan.

The home loss to Oklahoma was disappointing and could really hurt if the CFP committee has a debate between the Buckeyes and a Big 12 team. But moving forward the Buckeyes will probably be favored in every game, and get the toughest remaining opponent (Penn State) at home. They’re also more balanced than most other contenders, with the current #3 offense and #6 defense by S&P+. There’s good reason to be skeptical about JT Barrett and the passing game coming through in the big games remaining, but each B1G team has similar weak points.

Contenders:

Wisconsin: As you’ve probably seen, the Big Ten schedule Gods smiled on the Badgers this year. In the entire 12-game schedule Wisconsin faces only one top-35 team (Michigan) in the regular season. That game and most of the other most dangerous traps (Purdue, Iowa) come at home in Camp Randall. Winning is hard, but S&P+ gives the Badgers a 23% shot on going undefeated in the regular season, and they’re virtual locks for a trip to Indianapolis.

Penn State: James Franklin’s team survived a scare in Iowa City and apart from that game has looked very good against blah opponents. After a bye this week, Penn State faces Michigan, Ohio State, and MSU back to back to back. Can they survive that stretch and defend the East division title? I don’t like their chances, but if the loss is the right one – say to a Michigan team with one loss in conference play already instead of Ohio State – they could find themselves on the right side of potential tiebreakers. The  big question will be how well the defense (#1 in points per game, #9 in Defensive S&P+) holds up against better competition.

The spoiler: Michigan

With all due respect, the Wolverines are more spoiler than contender even with just one loss so far. The Fighting Harbaughs have by far the worst single unit of any of the other top teams in the conference with an offense ranked 69th (not so nice) in Offensive S&P+. Michigan also has the toughest schedule remaining with a trip to Penn State and back to back games with Wisconsin and Ohio State to end the year. S&P+ has their most likely final record as 8-4, which would be fun to watch. But it’d also be fun to watch 8-4 or 9-3 with a win that’s untimely for the conference’s playoff chances.

Chaos scenario: No one separates, no one gets in

The top teams in the East take turns beating each other, with Ohio State (10-2) beating Michigan (8-4) and Penn State but losing to MSU (again). Penn State’s (11-1) loss at home to the Buckeyes keeps them out of the conference title game, which they badly need with their best wins (Michigan and MSU) looking kind of mediocre. Wisconsin cruises undefeated to the Big Ten championship but loses to Ohio State there. The committee debates between the one-loss teams with much of a resume and a two-loss conference champion Ohio State and decides no team is worthy of a spot.

 

SEC

To a certain degree the SEC has always been carried by its elite teams, but that’s true this year more than ever. Alabama, Georgia, and Auburn all appear to be top teams and playoff contenders, but after that the conference is filled with deeply flawed teams. LSU has been a huge disappointment, Ole Miss has completely fallen apart, and the East is full of mediocrity after the Bulldogs. Still, the SEC seems like it has the lowest chances of missing the playoff, thanks to perhaps the best team (Alabama) and a very good Georgia team that has a soft remaining schedule.

The favorite: Alabama

The Tide took a break from dominating every opponent last week and let Texas A&M hang close, but it’s hard to imagine Bama tripping up more than once. The four game stretch of Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, and Mississippi State looked a lot scarier at the start of the season that it does now. Alabama’s been so dominant that S&P+ gives them an 81% probability of losing one or zero games in the regular season. But if Auburn is the one loss that trips them up, the Tide could be left out of the conference championship game without a very strong resume now that FSU’s season has fallen through and the SEC middle and bottom look so disappointing.

Contenders:

Georgia: Notre Dame fans saw the Bulldogs defense up close and personal, and that elite unit should keep them in every game. Jake Fromm has been very good stepping in as a true freshman (8.1 yards per attempt) and is the 2nd highest rated passer in the SEC. The running back talent is ridiculous, and the offensive line is much improved. The win in South Bend is a strong line on the resume, and there are few offenses left on the schedule that can move the ball enough to compete with the Dawgs. Weird things can happen against Florida in Jacksonville, and rivalry games with Auburn and Georgia Tech will test the defense. Yet S&P+ still gives UGA a 20% chance to go to Atlanta unbeaten and a 42% chance to lose only once, which would guarantee them the East division.

Auburn: It was tempting to write off the Gus Tigers after they were dominated by the Dabo Tigers’ defense in Death Valley. But since then Jarrett Stidham and the offense have looked much better, and the defense has been consistently strong (#7 in Defensive S&P+). The bad news is that Auburn has to play both Georgia and Alabama and already has one loss. That’s a tremendously tough task, and puts into play some unfair scenarios like beating Georgia, losing a close game to Alabama, and getting zero playoff consideration at 10-2 with losses to the two best teams in college football. It’s not unprecedented though (hello 2013 miracles!), and it’ll be fun to watch them try.

Spoiler: LSU?

There’s not really many scary options here, but the Tigers have the talent and coordinators to make runs at upsetting Alabama and Auburn. If Gus Malzahn’s Tigers picks up their second loss before Georgia or Alabama they’ll certainly become more spoiler than contender, but they’d still have some life with the Tide and SEC title game berth in play.

Chaos Scenario: Too many 1-loss teams

Georgia (11-1) loses a close game at Auburn, and plays the undefeated Tide in Atlanta. Kirby Smart pulls of the upset over his former mentor, securing a playoff berth. Alabama has a strong case at 12-1, as does 11-1 Notre Dame, whose only loss was to the SEC Champs. Parity in other power five conferences results in a playoff seeding of #1 Clemson, #2 Georgia, #3 Alabama, and #4 Notre Dame.