There are 36 days until National Signing Day as we come down the stretch of the 2017 recruiting class. It’s been an interesting year for the Fighting Irish as the program looks to hang on to a Top 15 haul following a disastrous 4-8 season on the field.

Can it be done? It’s going to be close!

First, let’s take a look at the players scheduled to commit in the coming weeks. Crystal Ball leaders are in parentheses.

December 27th
RB Cam Akers .996 (Florida State)

January 1st, Under Armour All-American Bowl
S Deangelo Gibbs .979 (Georgia)
S Xavier McKinney .963 (Clemson)
ATH Markquese Bell .923 (Maryland)

January 7th, U.S. Army All-American Bowl
OL Foster Sarell .998 (Washington)
CB Jeffrey Okudah .994 (Ohio State)
CB Darnay Holmes .992 (Ohio State)
S Bubba Bolden .969 (USC)
OL Chuck Filiaga .951 (Michigan)
RB Eno Benjamin .934 (Texas)
WR Jamire Calvin .896 (Nebraska)

Obviously, some big names are coming off the board soon. This doesn’t look great for Notre Dame but if you’ve been paying attention to this point you already knew that. Despite the dramatic pleas that the Irish class was imploding things have been holding more than steady for the current commits but the efforts to add more bodies isn’t going super awesome at the moment. To be expected, right?

The U.S. Army game could offer a surprise, although it’s unlikely. Notre Dame has been there among the finalists for Sarell but with the recent addition of Aaron Banks we can probably presume the staff knew it wasn’t going to pluck this 5-star out of the Evergreen State.

Calvin is down to Nebraska and Notre Dame which in normal circumstances the Irish should feel very good about the situation. This isn’t a normal year. Even though he’s one of the lowest rated recruits at the U.S. Army game it’d be a big deal for the Irish to get a verbal on national television given the circumstances.

Now for the rest of the remaining elite prospects who are still without a school:

Remaining Top Prospects
DT Marvin Wilson .997 (LSU)
WR Joseph Lewis .989 (USC)
DT Aubrey Solomon .985 (Georgia)
OT Austin Jackson .982 (USC)
DE LaBryan Ray .978 (Alabama)
S Devon Hunter .977 (Virginia Tech)
WR Jeff Thomas .973 (Illinois)
DE Jarez Parks .971 (Alabama)
DT Jay Tufele .969 (Utah)
WR Devonta Smith .969 (Alabama)
OL Tedarrell Slaton .964 (Michigan)
WR James Robinson .961 (Florida)
S Todd Harris .960 (LSU)
RB Anthony McFarland .957 (Miami)
DE K’Lavon Chaisson .956 (Texas)
CB Deommodore Lenoir .952 (Oregon)
ATH Greg Johnson .950 (Nebraska)

These are the Top 100 kids, the big fish that can be the difference between 8th place and 11th place in the final team rankings. For certain, we know the crystal ball predictions from 247Sports are far from the truth in every case but it’s interesting to see some varied programs in the mix this close to National Signing Day. We’ll likely see some commits before NSD but it appears many of these blue-chips are waiting until the very end.

Virginia Tech, Illinois(!), Utah, Oregon, and Nebraska adding blue-chips as a cherry on the top of their 2017 sundae is kind of a big deal. However, I’d be willing to bet 2 out of the 5 don’t ultimately sign with those schools. Someone maybe remind me when we get to NSD and we’ll see how it played out.

TEAM COMPOSITE RANKINGS (as of December 26, 2016)

Notre Dame currently sits in 9th place before the all-star games. Over the previous 5 complete cycles an average Composite score of 268.09 was needed to finish at least 10th overall in the team rankings. With the Irish currently at 247.53 they will undoubtedly fall out of the Top 10 by the end of this 2017 cycle. Even with a magnificent finish of Foster Sarell, Jamire Calvin, Antjuan Simmons, and Evan Fields that will only move Notre Dame to 266.32 points.

The 5-year average for at least 15th place is 247.25 which is right where Notre Dame currently sits. That would seem to suggest a Top 15 finish is likely but the question moving forward is how high that number will go in comparison to teams below the Irish.

Clemson and USC are virtual locks to pass the Irish as they can each add at least 10 more bodies and close with a flurry of commitments. Texas A&M looks like a team Notre Dame could pass but I wouldn’t bet on any others currently in the Top 7 falling behind the Irish.

Auburn, Penn State, Miami, Washington, and Florida will be the teams to watch and the big threats to prevent a Top 15 finish for Notre Dame. Using a 25-man limit those schools are within striking distance and can add an average of over 7 more recruits. If the Irish add only 3-4 more players and no one higher than a low 4-star a Top 15 finish may not be in the cards even with a score well over the 247-point average in recent cycles.

There are 32 players with 5-star status in the 247 Composite with Alabama and Ohio State having 10 of them. The fact that the Buckeyes are within shouting distance of Alabama for the No. 1 class with 8 fewer commits is insane. Then again, the Crimson Tide have a comfortable lead at No. 1 with a long-snapper and kicker in their class.

Alabama is rumored to be squeezing in an absurd 15 early enrollees in the coming days–they open classes on January 4th. That includes 9 out of their top 11 commits and a pair of the top JUCO transfers in the country. The academic progress being managed by Nick Saban is a wonder to behold.

Ohio State is set to pick up 8 total 5-stars and you know some Urban Meyer hi-jinx are lurking as we get closer to February. The Tide are apparently able to take 27 bodies which gives them room for 2 more recruits but they are also rumored to be shedding a couple others, including quarterback Mac Jones who is a low 4-star with Alabama already having the nation’s top dual-threat Tua Tagovailoa in the class.

If Alabama and Ohio State meet in the National Championship Game you might as well get your documentary stories in order. A win on the field (and in recruiting) could swing the Best Coach Ever pendulum towards Urban Meyer who would have one fewer National Championship than Saban but would move to 3-2 in head-to-head matchups with a 2-game winning streak in playoff/title games.