Brian Kelly, either with or without direction from above, sent a seismic shock through this season when he dismissed Brian VanGorder as defensive coordinator just four games in. I agree with the move – it was either now or a slow, agonizing death march to the same point in December – but still, tossing a coordinator mid-season is somewhat unusual in college football in general and particularly at Notre Dame. Kelly tabbed defensive analyst Greg Hudson to fill the interim defensive coordinator role, and noted that Hudson and every other coach, including himself, is on “a very public interview” for the rest of the season. Brian Kelly will most likely be safe after Jack Swarbrick’s recent stronger-than-the-Dreaded-Vote-of-Confidence vote of confidence, but it’s just as likely that Greg Hudson won’t be the long-term answer at defensive coordinator. Whither Irish fortunes, then?
Gauging the Field
When we look at the college landscape, the big defensive coordinator names are easy to pick out: Brent Venables. Jeremy Pruitt. Dave Aranda. John Chavis. Now, take each one of those guys and cross him off your list (well, except maybe for Aranda, but we’ll get to that). As easy as they are to name, they’re just as unlikely to leave their current school – respectively, Clemson, Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M. Sure, occasionally you get a guy like Chavis making a lateral move from one marquee program to another, but in the past it’s usually been for a big pay increase, and with what top assistants make right now that incentive isn’t likely to be out there for anyone. Notre Dame is willing to pay market value – VanGorder was making $1.1 million per year, while Chavis reportedly is the top-paid coordinator at $1.5 million – but they’re not going to swoop in and outbid a fellow blue blood.
The key then is to grab these guys before it’s obvious that they’re the crème de la crème by spotting someone who seems likely to take the next step. To that end, I skipped the biggest names (except for Aranda, but seriously man, we’ll get to that) and dug a little deeper to see who might be the diamond in the sort-of rough; most of these guys are hardly unpolished, but they’re not top of mind for most college football fans. I looked at some advanced stats, including defensive FEI, havoc rate (how much a defense tends toward disruption), and success rate (how efficient a defense is at preventing long drives). Havoc rate and success rate are only published for the last two seasons, which is why you’ll see me quote just 2014 and 2015 information for them. I also looked at trends in traditional stats, like scoring defense, and soft factors such as defensive scheme, career path, and coaching background.
The Semi-Official 18S Candidate List
Pete Kwiatkowski, Washington:
In 2013, Steve Sarkisian’s last year at Washington, the Huskies ranked a very respectable 24th in defensive FEI. When Chris Petersen took the job in 2014 and brought Kwiatkowski with him from Boise State, the defense went from very respectable to excellent, ranking 11th in 2014 and 2nd in 2015. This year, they rank 9th in defensive S&P+ and 10th in defensive FEI. Not too shabby. Kwiatkowski also had three top-15 defenses in his five years as defensive coordinator at Boise State. He’s young and he’s an active recruiter. What’s not to like? Well, he has been with Petersen since 2006 and, aside from a one-year stint as an assistant at top JUCO program Snow College in Utah, he has spent his entire life in the Northwest. So it seems unlikely that he could be pried away from Seattle, but it’s worth a phone call at least.
Alex Grinch, Washington State:
We’ll stay in the Evergreen State but roll over to slightly less picturesque Pullman to check out Alex Grinch slaving away on the Good Ship Leach. Grinch is only 36 and has been a college coach for 14 years already, and along the way, he has put up some big numbers and worked with some big names. He won three titles in four years as a player at Division III icon Mount Union, then started his coaching career immediately as a grad assistant at Missouri for Gary Pinkel, who also happens to be his uncle. He then caught on at New Hampshire coaching defensive backs, including future Pro Bowler Corey Graham, opposite then-offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. Kelly called him “one of the best teachers I’ve been around.” Grinch headed to Wyoming for three years as their secondary coach, where he mentored future Pro Bowl safety Tashaun Gipson (sense a theme?). He returned to Missouri as safeties coach for three years, then made the jump last year to Wazzu, where his defenses once again go against one of the nation’s most prolific spread offenses in the country in practice every week.
The year before Grinch arrived, the Cougars ranked 110th in defensive FEI. Last year, they were 44th. This year, they’re 16th. He preaches disruption and turnovers, and his defenses follow through. Color me impressed. I think Grinch is the most Sanford-like candidate out there.
Tony Gibson, West Virginia:
Gibson has had a very interesting career path, to say the least. The West Virginia native worked his way up through smaller schools before finally getting his big break with Rich Rodriguez in Morgantown. Rodriguez brought him along to Michigan; after that all fell apart, he spent a year at Pitt with Todd Graham, but he didn’t follow Graham to Arizona State. No, instead he reunited with Rodriguez in Arizona, where after one season he surprised the Wildcats by going back to West Virginia. Still with me? He was promoted to defensive coordinator in 2013, his second year back with the Mountaineers.
That’s somewhat nomadic and raises an eyebrow a bit, but what really jumps out is his performance on the field. From 2013 to 2015, West Virginia ranked 82nd, 33rd, and 7th in defensive FEI; this year, they’re ranked 12th. From 2014 to 2015, they ranked 81st and 17th in havoc rate and 13th and 4th in success rate. Gibson has the West Virginia defense trending up in a big, big way. Consider me on the Tony Gibson Hype Train.
Todd Orlando, Houston:
Orlando’s future is likely handcuffed to that of his boss, head coach Tom Herman, who is about the hottest name on armchair athletic directors’ minds right now. Orlando followed Dave Aranda at Utah State in 2013, and more or less maintained the levels that Aranda had established. He joined Herman last year in Houston and produced a significant improvement over the Cougars’ previous year – from 77th to 23rd in defensive FEI and from 72nd to 25th in havoc rate. The catch, of course, is that we have just the one year at Houston and we don’t know how much of his success at Utah State was really Aranda’s. Even with the recent blowouts at the hands of Navy and SMU, Houston ranks 26th in defensive S&P+ and 28th in defensive FEI. On the other hand, they got steamrolled by Navy and SMU.
There have been rampant rumors over the last couple of days that Herman is headed to Texas; if that’s true, there’s a very good chance that Orlando will go with him. If that ultimately goes nowhere, though, LSU could well pursue Herman vigorously, which could make things very interesting. Speaking of which…
Dave Aranda, LSU:
Dave Aranda is probably the crown jewel of the defensive coordinator market, and he’s hardly a diamond in the rough. Aranda built a dominant defense in his one year at Utah State, taking them from 70th in defensive S&P+ in 2011 to 10th in 2012, and continued his impressive work at Wisconsin when he followed head coach Gary Andersen to Madison. In three seasons under Aranda, the Badgers ranked 10th, 29th, and 7th in defensive S&P+. This year, even with all the unrest in Baton Rouge, he has LSU ranked 8th in defensive S&P+ and 3rd in defensive FEI.
Aranda’s availability hinges on who LSU’s new coach will be and whether he’ll want to retain Aranda or bring his own guy in. It’s worth noting that Aranda has been in a similar situation before – Gary Andersen bolted Wisconsin for Oregon State after one season, and Paul Chryst retained Aranda when he built the new Wisconsin staff. It’s also worth noting that LSU gave Aranda a contract that is completely independent of Les Miles’s status. If LSU hires Herman, that’s where things get very interesting. Herman and Orlando have done some good things, but in addition to Aranda’s elite credentials he and Herman were kinda-sorta college roommates – no, we’re not kidding – and could be open to a reunion. One thing is certain: if LSU nabs Herman, a very good defensive coordinator will be available.
Marcel Yates, Arizona:
Yates is in his first year at Arizona, which might make you wonder how he made this list. Well, I’m glad you asked… Yates made a name for himself as a secondary coach at Boise State from 2003 to 2011 before heading to Texas A&M for two seasons in the co-defensive coordinator role, where he was ultimately replaced by Chavis. When Bryan Harsin took over in Boise in 2014, Yates headed back to his alma mater and filled the defensive coordinator role that Kwiatkowski had just vacated. In his two years in Boise, Yates took Kwiatkoski’s disruptive and efficient defenses and made them even more so, turning in defensive FEI rankings of 23rd and 14th, havoc rate rankings of 14th and 4th, and success rate rankings of 24th and 10th. Harsin hired Yates and Mike Sanford at the same time, so there’s a substantial connection to the current Irish staff. Would that connection – and most likely a substantial raise – be enough to pull Yates away from his new job in the desert?
Mike Elko, Wake Forest:
Shortly after VanGorder’s dismissal, Mike Elko’s name surfaced seemingly out of the blue on a couple of Notre Dame message boards. Rivals’s Lou Somogyi, about as respected a Notre Dame writer as you’ll find, mentioned him, as did Barton Simmons, one of 247Sports’s national coverage guys. Conspiracy theories immediately cropped up – Swarbrick must have leaked something to them! Why else would they mention this guy? Well, after looking into it, I can assure you that they mentioned him because he’s good. He’s not a household name for fans yet, but he’s well thought of within the coaching ranks. In his two-plus years at Wake Forest, he has turned in defensive S&P+ rankings of 37th, 60th, 27th. Further, he had the Deacons ranked 24th in havoc rate in 2014 and currently has them ranked 18th, so he likes to be disruptive.
Elko is at his fourth different program with Wake Forest head man Dave Clawson, having worked with him at Fordham, Richmond, and Bowling Green previously. There’s a decent chance that Elko is Clawson’s Denbrock, but much like Kwiatkowski, it couldn’t hurt to kick the tires.
Tim DeRuyter:
DeRuyter was just fired as Fresno State’s head coach after an abysmal 1-7 start to this season put the exclamation point on a steady three year decline from his first two seasons there, when he won the Mountain West title both years. DeRuyter spent two years at Texas A&M as Mike Sherman’s defensive coordinator, taking the Aggies from 104th in scoring defense the year before he arrived to 34th in his first season. He served as Air Force’s defensive coordinator the three years before that, taking the Zoomies from 78th in scoring defense before his arrival to 10th in his final season – a season that ended with a bowl game demolition of Kevin Sumlin’s Houston squad, in which the cadets held the vaunted Cougars offense to 222 passing yards and forced six interceptions. On the downside, Texas A&M took a big dip in his second season, and Fresno State trended hard in the wrong direction, dropping steadily from 17th in defensive S&P+ and 11th in defensive FEI in 2012 to 84th and 105th, respectively, in 2015. Was he just not a fit as a head coach? Or is his peak behind him?
Nate Woody, Appalachian State:
Appy is forever close to the hearts of Irish fans everywhere thanks to their stunning upset of Michigan in 2007. I’m contractually obligated to include this every time I talk about Appalachian State:
Nate Woody was at Wofford back then, but fret not – he’s done some pretty interesting things at Appalachian State since coming on as defensive coordinator in 2013, their last year of FCS football. Their defense has fared better in the drive-based FEI than the play-based S&P+; couple that with Woody’s preferred 3-4, and it’s tempting to infer that he favors a bend-but-don’t-break style. I don’t know if that’s the case, but even so, his results have been impressive – from 83rd in defensive FEI in 2014 to 11th last year, and from 103rd in S&P+ defense in 2014 to 43rd last year. This season, his defense gave up 13 points in regulation to Tennessee before falling in overtime. The main question with Woody, who had spent his entire career in lower divisions before Appy moved up to FBS, is whether he’s ready for the big stage.
Jon Heacock, Iowa State:
Like Marcel Yates, Heacock is in his first year at his current school after posting sterling results at a lesser (?) program – in this case, Toledo. Unlike Yates, Heacock is in the latter phase of his career and perhaps more likely to stick around. Heacock spent a good chunk of his career at Youngstown State, mostly as Jim Tressel’s defensive coordinator and then as Tressel’s replacement in the head job. He joined Toledo in 2014 after one year in Purdue on Darrell Hazell’s staff, so obviously he’s willing to take a step up quickly. In his two years at Toledo, he took the Rockets from 97th to 8th in defensive FEI, 59th to 7th in havoc rate, and 80th to 31st in success rate. The one concern is that he doesn’t have much Power 5 experience and in his two Power 5 stops – one year as DB coach in Purdue and now a partial year as DC at Iowa State – his results have been, charitably, unimpressive. On the other hand, we’re talking about Iowa State and Purdue here…
Good stuff. It seems like there is a pretty hard cutoff between Aranda and Yates there. If we get anybody at the top of that list, I think that has to be considered successful; anyone below is a ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ at best.
Another name that has popped up is Derek Mason at Vanderbilt. Their beating Georgia might have bought him another year as head coach, but if they lose their last four (unlikely, as they’re playing Missou) he might get canned. I would think he heads right near or at the top of the list if he gets fired.
Really it’s Aranda and Kwiatkowski, and then everyone else. I think either of them is a sure thing; more than a home run or even a grand slam, they would be a steal of home to win Game 7 of the World Series. That’s the level of unexpectedness and delight that hiring them would bring.
After them, I really like Grinch and Gibson a lot. They both lead attacking, disruptive defenses that put up some really good advanced stats against some offensive firepower. Both are considered plus recruiters, too. @If that’s even worth anything…@ Yates looked really good at Boise, but this year has Arizona ranked just 102nd in defensive S&P+. Also, even though Chavis is one of the best in the business, it’s not a huge endorsement that Sumlin replaced Yates after two seasons in College Station. On the other hand, we’ve seen that Sumlin doesn’t exactly run a tight ship, and Arizona was ranked 110th in defensive S&P+ last year so they’re actually up a bit.
The rest of the guys are definitely riskier propositions with potential upside. Depending on whether Kelly is considered a lame duck in coaching circles, we may have to look for guys with more risk.
Do any of these guys have a connection to BK? It seems like he has, in the past, shown a very strong preference for and comfort level with guys he knows (Sanford excepted). Obviously, that’s not a trait unique to him, but I think he may demonstrate it a bit more than your average head coach.
Man, that’s not an easy one to answer just because of how convoluted the career paths get. As far as I know none of them have a direct connection, and the only tangential connection anyone has is the one I mentioned between Yates and Sanford – Harsin hired them as his first coordinators in Boise.
I think that if he doesn’t already go this way on his own, Kelly will be strongly encouraged to go outside his tree for the next DC.
By the way – I meant to respond to your comment on Derek Mason too. I love Mason and I think he would be phenomenal on and off the field for us, but I don’t see it happening. I think he wants to be a head coach, and even if he got fired at Vandy he would most likely try to get another Power 5 head job. He’s in his mid 40’s and on his first head job after 19 years as an assistant – you have to think he’s not ready to flush the dream yet. I left him off the list here because I think he’s an even less realistic candidate than Aranda, which is also why you don’t see Venables, Chavis, etc. in the candidate list. No doubt they’d be great, but they’re not coming.
With Charlie Strong’s ouster all but complete, according to rumor, some Irish fans have talked about him too. I think he’s a more realistic candidate than Mason – he’s farther along in his career by about 10 years and has now done well as a head coach, moved up and failed. I think he’s more likely to weigh a top-tier coordinator position against a mid-tier head job, but I’m not sold that he’s done as a head man yet either. I’m also not really sold on him as a DC; I think his floor is decent, but I don’t know how far it is from his ceiling.
It took Strong so long to break that barrier and become a head coach, and he had to deal with so much non-football related crap to do it, I don’t see him going back to being a coordinator. Not when he was successful as a head coach at Louisville.
Agreed. I view Charlie Strong as a pipe dream, mostly because he almost certainly will get another shot as a head coach at a lesser school, perhaps even a P5 job. I don’t think Derek Mason would be offered a P5 head coaching job after getting fired at Vandy, but you could well be right that he’d rather take a lower-level head job than ND DC; I have a little more optimism on that front because, frankly, we probably pay more and are as high profile a position as, say, a MAC head coaching job.
Sean O’Leary besides his name, which is a pretty good qualifier to coach at Notre Dame, led the Denver Stampede to a 10 and 2 championship season in Pro Rugby this year allowing the fewest points against in the league. Prior to being hired by Denver he was Head Coach and Director of Rugby from 2007 to 2015 at (dramatic pause) the University of Notre Dame.
I don’t think Hudson has done a bad job so far. If he were to stay, what is the fall-out?
I mean beyond firing Kelly.
Is it just Hudson or is it that Kelly has been more involved in the defense the past month, or is it a combination? I’m not trying to take anything away from Hudson but I think more has to do with Kelly taking a more active role in the defense (and apparently abandoning the offense?).
I don’t get the impression that Hudson has done anything other than cheer-lead as a place holder, with Elston actually calling the defense. Of course my impression is only based on what we’ve seen via the NBC broadcasts, so actually giving him the job would be based on a lot of things we don’t see, as we’re not in the meeting rooms, etc. Kelly’s hire is as much about perception and expectation management as anything else–he’s got to hire someone who is going to give the impression, just from the name, that the defense will go in the right direction. Hudson won’t move the needle, which won’t buy him any breathing space going in to next year. If Aranda or Kwiatkowski come in and we don’t have a great defense next year, the talk will be “well, we know Aranda can put together a great defense, he’s just got more to untangle from the BVG mess. We’ll get there.” If it’s a guy who isn’t a name, oddly I think they’ll be cut less slack, because the comment will be “hell, Hudson (or whomever) is just as bad as the last guy” the first time we miss a tackle.
Also, I think the D staff needs a bigger shakeup, and Hudson is more likely to keep around other staff and make less waves. I’d rather have a guy who brought in his own assistants to run his defense. (Though of course I’d prefer Elston stick around somewhere to run recruiting).
Yeah, I agree with KG and Rudy here. I honestly think Hudson was a BVG safety valve – a guy who has been a DC before and, even though he hasn’t shown much that’s remarkable in those roles, would be able to handle the mechanics of it at least in case of an emergency. I do like his energy and the kids really seem to have responded to him.
Crazy idea… I’d actually like to see us keep Hudson on as a position coach, particularly if the new DC moves us to a 3-4. To wit:
I think Hudson could be an effective position coach and recruiter. I think Lyght might be a little overloaded coaching all the DBs, but I like what he brings in gravitas and recruiting. Of course, that would leave us one coach over the NCAA limit, so somebody would have to go, and that somebody is Booker. Nice guy, but definitely the weakest link on offense. Elston was Kelly’s special teams coordinator in Cincy and they were actually pretty good.
You mean Denbrock picks up Booker’s TE s in addition to the WRs he already has, correct? He wouldn’t be “shifting” to WR. Just confirming that I don’t have it all messed up.
I think it makes sense to keep Gilmore at DL. Put Elston full-time on ST if he was good at that–I wonder if a defensive position AND ST AND recruiting coordinator would be too much? I would not be upset to see Lyght and Booker gone. But again, the bottom line is the new DC should be able to bring in whomever he wants, so if he’s got a DL coach along with him, then too bad for Gilmore. No one has done a great enough job to be “protected,” and the only reason I’d say that about Elston is that reorganizing recruiting in December would be a nightmare.
What’s the normal allotment of coaches on Offense and Defense? This proposal would give us one more D coach than we have had right?
You’re allowed to have nine on-field assistants, broken up any way you want. Right now we have five offensive assistants and four defensive; my suggested remix flips it, which I think really balances it because Kelly is effectively a +1 for the offense. So you would have Kelly, Sanford, Denbrock, Denson, and Hiestand on the offensive side, and the new DC, Gilmore, Elston, Hudson, and Lyght on the defensive side.
To KG’s questions, yes, I mean shift Denbrock from WR to WR/TE, and on Elston, he actually had three roles each year in Cincy – recruiting coordinator/tight ends/special teams coordinator in 2007-2008, and assistant head coach/defensive line/special teams coordinator in 2009. I’m proposing moving him to RC/OLB/ST, which I think is pretty comparable and manageable.
Also, I agree, if the new guy wants his own people he should get them, probably with the exception of Elston. Not only would it throw the recruiting efforts into upheaval, but Elston has been with Kelly for a really long time – 12 years, believe it or not – and I have to think Kelly would protect him.
How does the breaking down of OLB/ILB into two different coach positions work? I don’t really get how that makes sense. Is it a scheme thing, where in the 3-4 you propose the ILBs are the bigger, Diaco-style guys and OLB’s are edge rushers, so they aren’t doing the same things? I guess I sort of feel like if you’re not good enough to coach a whole position group, then why do we have you? That doesn’t apply so much to our discussion of Elston (as it’s a way to reduce his other roles) so much as it does Lyght–I don’t see the value of having him coach safeties and not corners. Why not just get a DB coach who is competent enough to coach both?
We did the split linebacker responsibility under Diaco in 2010 – he coached inside and Cooks coached outside. It’s definitely a 3-4 thing, doesn’t make sense for the 4-3. In a 3-4 the inside and outside responsibilities are different enough that it’s not outlandish to have two guys covering them.
There also plenty of teams that split up corner and safety responsibilities, and again we have to look no farther than Kelly’s Notre Dame regime. From 2011-2013, Kerry Cooks had cornerbacks and Bob Elliott had safeties, and then Cooks took over the secondary in 2014 when Elliott stepped away. Grinch was the safeties coach for Pinkel at Missouri before taking the DC job at Wazzu. Gibson has mostly been a safeties coach. Especially in our case, where there’s a ton of young talent at both positions right now and an inexperience DB coach with potential, I don’t think it’s a terrible move to split up the responsibilities.
Also, Stanford splits linebacker responsibilities and I believe has done so ever since Harbaugh started there. Vanderbilt also splits them under Mason, which isn’t so surprising given that Mason comes from the Harbaugh tree.
Do most teams with offensive minded head coaches have one extra defense assistant or does it vary from staff to staff (no matter what the specialty of the head coach)? It begs the question why we have had the one more offensive coach with Kelly focusing so much on offense.
This isn’t a bad scenario, Brendan, but I think it only plays out if we get a decidedly lesser light hire. The top guys will bring their bunch in IMO.
I wouldn’t keep Lyght in this scenario though.
I would like Aranda. I doubt we will get Kwiatkowski. Grinch would be good.
Elko has done a great job at Wake, and before that as well. I think it is more likely that Elko will follow Clawson to ND in another year.
Would looking at the DC’s run defense rankings be worthwhile? Or is there an advanced adjusted stat that functions in a similar way? I know one of the stats that is always brought up when it’s playoff time has to do with a team’s run defense and how no one outside the top 25 has won the national championship except maybe Auburn during Cam’s senior year. Seeing improvement in that stat could be a good sign.
Good question. There are a couple of advanced stats that could be worthwhile – the two that come to mind are power success rate allowed (opponent’s conversion rate on 3rd/4th and 2 or less) and stuff rate allowed (percentage of opponents’ carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage). But you get some pretty divergent rankings, which makes me think that in isolation they don’t tell you enough. For example, my boy Grinch has Washington State ranked 4th in stuff rate this year, but only 70th in power success rate. Alabama ranks 10th in stuff rate and 127th (!) in power success rate. Woody has Appalachian State 4th in power success rate but 81st in stuff rate, while Wisconsin is 9th in power success rate but just 63rd in stuff rate.
There are only eight programs that rank in the top 20 in both stats, and only three – Virginia Tech (damn it), Texas A&M, and Ball State – that rank in the top 10 in both. Yet Texas A&M is ranked 79th in rushing defense and Ball State is ranked 57th. Virginia Tech is the positive outlier here at 11th, which means that by any metric, their defense is really good. Again, damn it.
This is all kind of a roundabout way of saying that in all likelihood, the more granular you get with the stats the less informative your conclusions will be.
Gotcha. Thanks for the reply! FWIW, I agree with your previous comment that Aranda and Kwiatkowski would be very impactful hires. Grinch as well.
OMG. On name alone, I want The Grinch Who Stole David Shaw’s Christmas.
Waited for you to get to Dave Aranda. Was not disappointed.
Do the advanced stats you’re using take into account competition? For instance, it’s impressive that WVU is putting up such good defensive numbers in the Big 12, where defense is borderline illegal (cv Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech, 2016). I’m assuming the stats take all this into account, as there’s a big difference between giving up 20 points a game in the PAC12 or Big 12 (where that’s probably respectable) vs. in the B1G or ACC.
Yes. S&P+ is opponent-adjusted. – http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadef
FEI is opponent adjusted too. Havoc rate, one of the components of S&P+, is not opponent adjusted as far as I can tell; I’m not really sure that it needs to be, though. As Connelly likes to say, it’s a personality stat, not an evaluative stat, so broad-brush painting is appropriate. I should’ve specified that I’m using success rate+, not just success rate – the “+” with the S&P components means they’re opponent adjusted.
Thanks, both of you.
This isn’t a bad scenario, Brendan, but I think it only plays out if we get a decidedly lesser light hire. The top guys will bring their bunch in IMO.
I wouldn’t keep Lyght in this scenario though.
Thanks Brendan. I’m curious, how does points allowed correlate with these advanced stats?
Not as tightly as you might imagine, at least in the broader picture. Of course the best of the best are going to be at or near the top of pretty much any statistical measure; Michigan, Florida, Auburn, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Washington, Alabama, LSU, and Clemson all appear in the top ten in scoring defense and also rank in the top 10 in defensive FEI. Army, believe it or not, is the last team in the top ten in scoring defense – and they’re 68th in defensive FEI. Western Michigan is 21st in scoring defense, but only 62nd in defensive FEI.
There’s going to be some correlation, because the two things that the main advanced stats measure – FEI reflects how good you are at preventing long drives, while S&P+ reflects how good you are at winning individual plays – are necessary features of top-level defenses. The problem with the counting stats like scoring and yards allowed is that there’s no adjustment for opponents or possessions, which is how an option team like Army gets into the top ten in scoring, rushing, and passing defense while being average or below-average on all three in the advanced stats. I would be more confident that a high-ranking team in FEI or S&P+ defense would rank highly in scoring defense than I would be about the reverse.
That makes sense, thanks Brendan
I think KG is right that Mike Elston is really doing most of the heavy lifting DC work right now. Is he ready for the DC job? If the defense continues trending up, does he get a shot? It wouldn’t be a sexy hire but, that doesn’t mean it couldn’t work. There would be positives in keeping things familiar. Of course things have to keep trending up the next 5 weeks or this post is mute.
Not a fan. I think Elston is OK as a position coach, and he might be OK as a DC, but just like with the head coach position, Notre Dame isn’t the place to get your first work as a defensive coordinator. (He was co-DC for one year at Central Michigan, but I don’t think that counts in this context). Plus, I think it’s vitally important that Kelly go outside the family for this hire. He needs a voice on defense like Sanford on offense. I also think he needs to let Sanford’s voice get a little louder, but that’s another discussion.
No argument from me…….yet.
Does anyone know how old Sanford’s voice is currently? It’s very hard to tell, IMO.
How loud is Sanfords voice now? Hard to tell with the 3 headed structure we have now.
I think about our defense the last 2 1/2 years, and there is literally not one positive I see in keeping things “familiar.”
I like any of those names. I agree with KG, we need someone from outside to come into the program. A shakeup would be good. I like the 3-4 scheme for us. I have memories of a 3-4 equalling successful defenses for us in the recent past. Maybe it has to do with our struggles to recruit defensive linemen? Great article Brendan, it’s fun to speculate.
I sort of agree on the 3-4, but one of the reasons people were optimistic about the move to VanGorder’s 4-3 was that it was so hard for us to recruit true nose tackles for the 3-4 and the 4-3 relied on half as many plus athletes at inside linebacker. I do think we’re more likely to find three linemen who can at least hold the point of attack and a few talented tweeners to be the outside linebackers in a 3-4, but either way, we’re probably going to have trouble filling some spots.
A bunch of these guys do run a 3-4, by the way. If you’re curious:
Even front: Kwiatkowski (4-3), Grinch (4-2-5), Elko (4-3), Heacock (4-3)
Odd front: Aranda (3-4), Gibson (3-3-5), Orlando (3-4), DeRuyter (3-4), Woody (3-4), Yates (3-3-5)
I think Yates runs a 3-3-5; their position names are really stupid, so it’s hard to tell from the depth chart. They have a nose tackle, defensive tackle, middle linebacker, and weakside linebacker. So far, so good. But then things get weird – they have a Stud, a Spur, and a Bandit. As near as I can tell the Bandit is the strong safety. The starting Stud is 6’3″/236, which sounds like possibly a (small) rush end, and the starting Spur is 6’0″/205, which sounds like maybe a nickel/outside linebacker hybrid.
Maybe they’re just trying to keep up with Arizona State, whose defensive depth chart features a Nose (not nose tackle), Tiger, End (not defensive end), Devil, and Spur. Weirdness.
My high school ran a 3-3-5 a couple of years ago, and used the terms Spur and Bandit. The two were basically how you describe them.
Our 3-3-5 in high school just called the in essence, fourth LB, the “Adjuster” and he lined up anywhere on the field. He was always the most athletic guy on the team so it was a way to get him involved in as many plays as possible. While I was there it was Alex Albright, who ended up with the Cowboys prior to injuries ending his football career, and Luke Kuechly, who probably doesn’t need introduction.
With those guys on the field in high school the 3-3-4 + future NFLer defense always looked pretty good.
I don’t care who we get as long as he can recruit. If forced to pick anyone off this list I would take Gibson……I guess. Not really impressed with any of the names listed including Gibson. Notre Dame needs to hit a home run with this DC hire.
Dave Aranda isn’t likely to leave LSU regardless of who they hire unless you step up salary wise. He is to good of a recruiter and teacher. If ND thinks Aranda is the right guy they need to step up and make him the highest paid DC in the country. If BVG is worth 1.1 million, Aranda has to be worth at least close to 2 million. Notre Dame needs someone like Aranda who is plugged into the south. 2 million is a hefty price tag but Aranda would be worth every penny.
According to US Today (and since reported by ESPN), Kelly himself only makes $1.65 million a year. Doubt we’re paying $2 mil for a DC.
Harbaugh makes $9 mil, by the way.
From what I’ve heard, Kelly’s total compensations is closer to $5M. As a private institution ND doesn’t have to open their books, so nobody has complete official knowledge of what he’s paid. I believe the $1.65M comes from what the university puts on its tax returns; there’s plenty of ways to compensate him further that wouldn’t show up in there.
VanGorder was making $1.1M. I don’t think anyone is prepared to go to $2M for a coordinator yet, but I could see us going to something like $1.3M for a bona fide top level guy like Aranda. I could see us around $1M for a Kwiatkowski and maybe $600K-$900K for a Grinch or Gibson. Denbrock and Sanford supposedly make around $650K each.
I think Brent Venables is the highest paid coordinator at $1.7M and John Chavis is next at $1.5M. I think Aranda is at $1.3M. Aranda looks very good, but his resume isn’t as established as those guys. I don’t think we need to go to plaid and offer him $2M just yet.
Money being equal why come to ND if you are Aranda? Its just not going to happen. I fully understand that 2 mill per is a ton of money for a DC. Is Harbaugh worth 9 million a year? I guarantee if you ask any Michigan fan or anyone affiliated with that program they tell you yes despite that huge price tag. Michigan was desperate to make a splash hire at head coach and they are reaping the reward for stepping up and getting their man. Notre Dame is in a desperate place as well. Aranda would come in and get this defense pointed in the right direction. I also think he would be able to bring in better recruits on the d line. If the program has targeted Aranda and we all believe they have or will. Money should not be a option.
I left out Venables, Chavis, and Pruitt on purpose. If Les Miles was still in place at LSU, I would’ve left out Aranda too. None of those guys have any reason to leave, unless Aranda is pushed out by the new guy, which he probably won’t be. I don’t think $2M is realistic for a coordinator anywhere right now, and I certainly don’t think Notre Dame wants to or even should set the market on salaries. We should pay fair market value, but I don’t think we should be leaders. With those guys’ resumes and their schools’ booster bases, I wouldn’t even be surprised if they were all able to match whatever we wanted to do, even if we did break the bank.
Kwiatkowski is at the level of those guys, just not as well known nationally yet. You could make a pretty substantial case that his resume is better than Aranda’s, actually. And he’s making about $600K – so we could double his salary and still be at a reasonable number.
Finally, I think you’re selling Grinch way, way short. He’s very highly regarded and, even at his young age, has a long track record of doing more with less. He’s also an excellent recruiter. And he’s reportedly at $575K. Washington State and even probably Washington are programs that we could straight outbid for these guys.
Agreed, Kelly gets more than that through various structures. Still, when he’s the “#65 highest paid coach” in CFB, why leave the SEC, where everyone makes over $4 mil?
There is no way BK makes less than 2 mill a year.
There’s no way he’s only bringing IN less than $2 mil a year.
His “salary” is $1.65. They probably have a really interestingly-structured contract.
Harbaugh’s “salary” is $500K. Seriously. Every school gets creative.
I remember watching Temple stymie ND last year. I just looked up Phil Snow an the Owls are 17 in total D and 23 in run D which is not shabby at all for a team like Temple.
Nice article, Brendan. Thanks for the breakdown.
A new DC is going to bring in a new or mostly new staff? Do you guys know Kelly’s track record with replacing coaches? I’m not defending any of these guys but a major shake up of the staff doesn’t fit Kelly’s MO. A new DC bringing one guy with him would be all I would expect.
I would think Hudson or Lyght would be the most likely casualty. I don’t think we know enough about either to know if that’s a good move. Lyght was dealt a tough hand this year. I think he could end up being a top recruiter and he certainly has a strong resume as a DB. Brendan may be right that Booker will be the casualty and TE will go to Denbrock and ST to Elston or Hudson.
I agree, tlndma. Look at VanGorder – he was the only change after Diaco left. I would guess that in a lot of cases with a mid-tenure coordinator hire the head coach has significant ties to a lot of the assistants and will want to keep at least some of them around. I can’t see any way that Elston would be gone, for example; I think he’ll be at Notre Dame for as long as Kelly is.
I agree on Lyght too. The jury’s definitely out on him as a secondary coach, and I’m not even talking about just his results at Notre Dame. But I think he has already done some good things in recruiting, and you better believe that kids care about the fact that he was a national champion, All-American, Super Bowl champ, and All-Pro. I think it would help him a lot to trim down his responsibilities.
I think a lot will depend on scheme and what is the new guy’s area of specialty. Kwiatkowski has a DL background, Grinch is a secondary guy, Aranda is a linebacker coach. And then of course scheme is a big deal. Hudson is the easiest choice to push out to maintain status quo, possibly even moving him back to an analyst position rather than straight letting him go. I think there will be some level of shakeup no matter what, but not wholesale changes.
Brendan, great article. I’m a bit late to the party on this, but you mentioned that ND would have to get rid of a coach in order to keep Hudson on the field. That might not be necessary, though, as the NCAA is proposing adding a 10th assistant coach. From the looks of it, there’s a good chance the proposal will pass. From the NCAA website earlier this month:
http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/di-consider-early-signing-period-football
Great catch, thanks for sharing that. I hope they do bump it up one – I realize that a lot of schools will face budgetary issues, but with younger guys who want to get into coaching I’m sure they could make a GA a very low-paid assistant and add another GA.
I’m also very interested by the near-throwaway comment at the end about possible limitations for off-field staff as well. Enjoy your army of analysts while you can, Saban. Change is (or might be, anyway) coming.
The really next-level thing is how many former coaches Saban has hired as his “analysts.” The Sarkisian hire this fall highlighted it, but he’s got some ridiculous number of coaches on staff–it’s like a coaching bullpen. As soon as one guy leaves to get a HC job, he’s already got another waiting in line. It’s like coach greyshirting.
and in the meantime he’s got guys able to scout and draw up some basic gameplans for opposing teams (and against his own team). Often there is just not enough time in the week to prepare as much as you could but with such high-end coaching talents (even if they aren’t good head coaches) you can obviously get a lot of extra good planning in that most teams don’t have the time for.
I have no idea how you regulate that, but I don’t think I’m in principle against regulating it.
What the regulations will probably do is reduce the quality of the analysis – I’m sure Saban will have just as many or more analysts, but they’ll be GA level or student volunteers or something. We can laugh at Sark as much as we want, but 20 student volunteers aren’t going to give you a fraction of the insight that Sark will.
I’m not positive on this, but I think the hole Bama exploited in Clemson’s kick coverage in the title game was the result of analyst work. Whoever caught it, they saw a particular thing Clemson did that left a particular zone of the field empty, and they kicked to that zone at an opportune time.
The main thing for me is that it exacerbates the power imbalance between the haves and the have-nots. Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Texas, Notre Dame – all those schools can afford to pay 10 experience people to sit around and watch film. The vast majority of FBS can’t, at least not at the same level. I know there are some natural imbalances that will just never be leveled out, and I’m fine with that of course, but something like this seems like a pretty easy one to try to even out.
I believe Saban hired Tosh Lupoi as an analyst. He was considered possibly the best recruiter in the country around 2012, then got hit with a bunch of NCAA investigations (maybe some punishments) and was let go. Saban snatched him up as an analyst, and once the NCAA dust settled, gave him the spot coaching LBs.
He’s been considered one of the dirtiest recruiters in the country for pretty much his entire career. Cal fans (yes, there are a few) hate him – he had a deal in place with Sark at Washington, but he was telling Tedford he was staying while telling recruits they should follow him to Washington. He left a goodbye voicemail on Tedford’s cell while Tedford was on a plane to a recruiting visit they were supposed to make together.
Then of course he faced sanctions in Washington for paying for dubious online courses to get borderline kids through the NCAA clearinghouse. I’m not sure exactly how he avoided serious penalties for that one, but he did, and he resurfaced in Alabama. I’m sure Saban has him under pretty strict guidelines to reduce the risk, but any slimy non-illegal thing he can do, he’ll still do.
Where is young Mr Justin Wilcox on this list?