Brian Kelly met with the press on Tuesday afternoon to officially kick off the 2016 football season game week opener against Texas. Due to the wonders of television we still have nearly 5 full days until we see real live football from the Irish but we’ll make it soon enough. The slate this Saturday is loaded from afternoon to night, so rejoice in that comfort.
Since the game is pushed back–really a day and a half in comparison to the usual afternoon kickoff–the team will leave for Austin late on Friday evening. Prior to Kelly’s meeting with the press the annual two-deep was circulated which allows us to update our full depth chart before kickoff against Texas:
There are no surprises on the offensive side of the ball. Despite generally believed to be better during fall camp Weishar slides behind Smythe but they’ve been 1A and 1B options for weeks. All of the skill positions remain the same from our last depth chart update. Interestingly, despite recently stating that former walk-on Chris Finke was a backup in the slot it’s Holmes who gets the nod on paper.
Kelly hasn’t decided (or won’t name) the quarterback to get the first reps in Austin, although Kizer is listed first with the “OR” designation between him and Zaire.
Although he’s not starting expect Tristen Hoge to see the field, per Kelly. He’s the backup as listed at right guard but is also the first center off the bench behind Mustipher.
All of Dexter, Coney, Stepherson, and White are on the depth chart and available to play per Kelly. Unless something comes down from the school before Sunday we’ll have these players suited up. However, I’m curious to see if the Irish can get away with not playing any of them on Sunday and it’s doubtful any of them would be truly needed in week two against Nevada, either. At worst, the school would probably hand out 2-game suspensions so maybe they can get away with time served heading into Michigan State?
That probably won’t happen, though. Everyone except White is kind of needed right now.
In a small twist, Coney gets moved behind Morgan at middle linebacker as Martini becomes the starter on the weak-side. In reality, it appears Martini is the backup at all three positions.
Back around National Signing Day it seemed like the Irish could have 6 or 7 strong-side linebackers depending on how they moved pieces around. The point was that there were that many young body types ready to fill that position. With Martini now sliding over to the other side it’s true freshman Jamir Jones who moves into the two-deep.
Kelly mentioned Jamir Jones (and fellow freshman Julian Okwara) as the young players who have the pass rushing ability to see the field. As such, they will travel with the team to Texas–and maybe we can infer so far at this point–neither will not be taking a redshirt.
We’re still listing Jay Hayes on the injury report, although in NFL terms he’s heading into the Texas game as “probable.” However, his absence from the end of camp allowed Trumbetti and Daelin Hayes to up their game and solidify themselves as the two-deep…for now. I’m not sure if they’ll really test Hayes’ ankle early in the game but Kelly also mentioned that they aren’t going to throw Daelin Hayes to the wolves early in the game either.
Obviously, the official Notre Dame dept chart does not list a nickel corner. Per that chart the top four corners are Luke/Love and Crawford/Coleman. We’ll see if that means Love is legitimately a backup at outside corner because all through camp he was believed to be confined to the nickel corner spot.
The biggest news of the day was 6th-year senior Avery Sebastian moving over to free safety and getting the starting nod against Texas. It’s genuinely scary but we knew there wasn’t going to be any happy answers here. Virtually no one knows what to expect from Sebastian who has spent most of the last 18 month since his transfer from California-Berkeley injured and/or receiving minimal reps at strong safety. He did have a great workout during one of the open practices during camp but otherwise his name was barely mentioned.
The hamstring suffered by Studstill was just too much for him to step into the starting job. Even without injury it was going to be a lot to ask. Kelly really laid it on thick about Sebastian’s ability to do his job and not make mental errors. I’m sure for now they’ll covet that stability but in the event that Texas runs something north of 65 plays we can probably expect Studstill to play 20 snaps or so.
Quite a few freshman in the two deep.
Has anyone heard further about the Butler suspension?
59 underclassmen!
*breathes into a bag*
If we’re going to have a sh@t storm of a season, might as well play all the youngins.
Nothing new with Butler, per Kelly. He’s still suspended indefinitely.
Doesn’t really matter, as he wasn’t going to be healthy until 2/3 of the way through the season anyway. Plenty of time for his legal situation to sort out (if, in fact, the eye witnesses are corroborated) and any suspension to be negated.
I still don’t buy the two QB rationale. It seems to contradict the identity establishment goal he has.
guess we’ll see Sunday.
He pretty much implied that our starting safeties are a bit slow, IMO. Anyone else pick that up?
Yep. Something like our starting safeties “probably don’t have the range that we would like” but they play position responsible and the young guys (who presumably do have the range) will get a chance to get into the game.
Playing both doesn’t get us more snaps at quarterback, which bothers me.
In a 900 snap season if you think Zaire is one of the best 5 players and gets 300 snaps, that limits Kizer to 600 snaps. Playing both isn’t going to give us 900 snaps from both like it would at receiver.
So move Zaire to receiver? Let’s keep following the yellow brick path layed by Ohio State.
Kizer being the better runner makes more sense for a position change.
Wait…Kizer is the better runner now?
It was a joke about the consistently changing argument that goes like that
I saw some people on the pay site message boards suggest that we should move Zaire to safety, since he’s so fast (seriously) and would understand how the other quarterback thinks. My apologies if any of you are the ones who posted that, but… That’s one of the dumbest football-related things I’ve ever read. By that logic, Clayton Kershaw should be the most awesome hitter in Major League Baseball.
Also, sticking with the baseball analogies, Zaire is indeed pretty fast – for a catcher. He’s fast for a quarterback but slow for a safety; by comparison, his reputed 40 time is a bit slower than Shumate’s, and nobody thought speed was Shumate’s strong point.
Come on people. Try harder.
Yeah, moving Zaire to safety probably doesn’t make sense, but I’m all aboard the John Shannon to FS train. Gotta have those depth safeties.
Zaire could cover a lot of ground. Almost 8% of Africa.
took me a few, but I got it. Thumbs up
I think the fact we are playing Texas, a team who should pound the ball with some big backs, makes the Sebastian move an easier decision.
Anyone else getting more pessimistic as we get closer?
I don’t see how our QB situation is any different than tOSU’s last year, and I think it’s being handled just as badly. The season is going to miserable, as no matter who plays, there are those (some more shrilly than others) who will complain at every negative play that the other QB would have done it better. It’s enough that I’m cringing at the idea of reading comments during and after games, and may just have to bow out.
The defense seems to get a shrug and a “well, it’s what we’ve got, I guess it will be okay” from Kelly. I don’t know what else he’s supposed to do when he has to can his starting safety a week before the season, but for all the talk here about how “the defense really could be better even though we lose Jaylon, guys, no, really, it could, just believe!” I don’t see too much to indicate it actually WILL be better, even if it’s possible.
Right now, 7-5 wouldn’t surprise me. Maybe it’s just my natural pessimism, assumption we’ll lose to teams we shouldn’t, and desire to set low expectations so I’m happy when we exceed them. Maybe it’s my feelings of impending negativity around the QB competition, because honestly it feels like even if we go 10-2 it will feel like 7-5 if we’re at each other’s throats over the QB issue. I don’t know. I’m already tired of this situation, and we haven’t even kicked off.
Good season for me to be buried in books and only occasionally up for air, I guess.
BUT HEY GO TIGERS WOO GOT (free) TICKETS TO THE PRINCETON-LAFAYETTE GAME OPENER OF THE SEASON ON SEPTEMBER 17TH WOO!!
So is Lafayette allowed to make plays or would that violate Princeton’s ” safe zone” precepts?
They have to ask nicely.
And a 7-5 ND season would be worth it (for me) to see my other alma mater (GO BOWS) beat Michigan this weekend…won’t happen, but gosh darn I would love that…
RE: QB
I think the vast majority of the fanbase is pretty neutral on that situation. Issues may crop up if they both play well for several games. But hey, that’s a good outcome. If one throws a couple of picks or has a couple of fumbles I would imagine that it will get resolved quickly via said QB wearing a red baseball cap.
On defense, I think our front 7 is going to be very solid in spite of losing Day and Jaylon. The secondary, maybe not so much. Personally , though, I think it is a heck of a lot safer to have a six year guy at FS than a freshman. I’d be much more nervous if Studstill were starting.
Since I’m one of the optimistic folks, I’ll take a shot…
I think the secondary will be better. Cole Luke will naturally progress (as it already looks like he has, based on camp reports), Crawford will be better than Russell, who was rusty and disengaged/self-abssorbed for most of last season, Studstill/Sebastian will be better than Redfield, and Tranquill will be at least a wash with Shumate. Safety depth is a bit of a concern, of course, but on the front line we should be just fine.
I think the linebacker unit as a whole will play better. I believe we’ve danced on this one before, so I won’t rehash all of it. I’ll just restate my belief that it’s completely reasonable to think that a naturally-progressing Onwualu (who, incidentally, is almost the exact same size as CJ Mosley was for his senior year at Alabama) and an above-average Morgan and Martini/Coney will perform at least as well as a less mature Onwualu, a below average Schmidt, and a transcendent Smith who has to cover for Schmidt.
If healthy, there’s every reason to believe the defensive line will be better. Jarron Jones is a top 5 nose guard when healthy and engaged, and the light seems to have gone on that this is his contract year, as it were. He and Rochell are going to wreck the right side of opposing offensive lines. Tillery reportedly is playing mean too, like he did earlier last season. Cage and Taylor give us a legit two-deep inside to keep guys fresh. I think Gilmore can manufacture production out of the Trumbetti/Hayes/Hayes trio to match Okwara last year.
See? That wasn’t too bad. Nobody disputes that Jaylon was a tremendous loss, but that doesn’t mean it’s preordained that our entire defense is going in the crapper.
I mean, it’s a fine argument. The linebackers still really bother me, because I don’t trust the coaches–but as you said, we’ve danced this dance before, even in another thread today. I agree that all of this is possible. And obviously I hope you’re right. I’d rather be angry at the coaching staff that they buried Morgan last year and have him become amazing than for them to have been right last year and he’s meh.
Part of it for me is that I don’t trust anything from the Spring or pre-season. Everyone’s “mean” and got the fire. Everyone’s improved and oh, this is going to be the year. Are the DB’s improving, or are they playing against freshman and sophomore receivers who don’t know what they’re doing? Do reports of the D-line not being able to get pressure on our QBs in practice mean they stink, or that our line is really good?
Don’t worry, once we beat Texas 38-3 I’ll be fine…
Yeah, I hear you for sure on that. The funny thing is that with my other sports – especially baseball, as a long-suffering Mets fan – preseason reports go in one ear and out the other. I just can’t help but drink the Kool Aid for Irish football though.
Also, I should point out that of course I’d feel a lot better if Jaylon, Russell, Stanley, and Fuller all came back, and even a little better if Redfield was still here. While I’m not necessarily highly confident in individual players who are currently unknowns, I do think we’ve made big strides with the overall talent on the roster and there’s more cause for optimism than in years past.
Now, let me go clean my rose-colored glasses.
We’ve made strides definitely in overall talent on the roster. No question about that. Still, as an inveterate pessimist, it’s hard for me to not look at a Redfield or Morgan (to date) and think “well, guess it doesn’t matter if we get 5-star players, because we’ll find a way to make them play like 3-stars…”
That’s not a fair attitude, and it ignores guys like Fuller or Day or Jaylon who either live up to or exceed the hype. On the other end, it’s still hard to think we’ve “improved” when I look over at Bama with so many 5-star players that they don’t care if a few don’t work out (or if they go pro) because there’s always another where that one came from. Come so far, so far to go… again, not fair because no one rakes in recruits like that, except maybe tOSU, but when the goal is an NC, that’s where the comparisons lie.
I like your math. Now, let’s hope it holds up in the games!
Where do you see the pass rush coming from this year? Trumbetti has been terrible when he’s seen the field, and Daelin Hayes is a freshman. There just aren’t many great freshmen pass rushers in college football. So who is your breakout pass rusher this year?
I think “terrible” is a pretty strong word. Trumbetti looked pretty decent as a freshman in 2014, and then just didn’t make the expected progress last year. On the other hand, he mostly saw time on the weak side in 2014 and then saw more time on the strong side, which he isn’t really cut out for, in 2015. Anyway, I don’t see him “breaking out” per se; I think he’s more of a scrapper who will pick up a handful of sacks through effort.
I think over the course of the year Daelin Hayes will play a bigger role; I could see him ending up with around 6 sacks or so, which for a freshman would be a really good number. I think you’ll see a few come from the second level, whether it’s Tranquill (really looking forward to see what he can do) or Onwualu or Coney, who was a very effective blitzer in high school, or someone else.
Bottom line? There is no breakout pass rusher, IMO. It’ll be done by committee.
This is my concern. It seems like the past couple of seasons, we’ve all been expecting a “pass rush by committee” that never actually pans out. The best defenses all seem to be the ones that have 1 or 2 ends that can just get after it; guys you have to gameplan against. Nobody on our D Line, other than Jarron Jones if he’s fully healthy, should really need to be double teamed much this year. That concerns me. Hopefully I’ll be surprised and more of those blitzes will hit home this year, or Jones will just be unstoppable inside.
If Hayes gets 6 sacks as a freshman who has been coming off a shoulder injury and hasn’t gotten to do nearly enough lifting, ill be ecstatic. I think he has a really high ceiling (at least as a pass rusher, I’ve never really seen much tape of him against the run), but 6 sacks as a freshman in his situation would give him a career ceiling as high as any pass rusher in this class.
(And Trumbetti has 2 sacks and 2.5 TFL for his career. To me, that’s pretty terrible; if he’s been playing out of position, then the coaching staff is on the hook for that terribleness).
KG, if you are really worried about 7-5, look into 2 things on your own, ignore the noise.
1. How does this team compare to other teams in the BK era and what their final records were. Do you think this team is better than 2010 (7-5), 2011 (8-4), 2012 (12-0), 2013 (8-4), 2014 (7-5), 2015 (10-2)?
2. How we stack up compared to the other teams on our roster. The opponent comparisons E did over the spring and early summer show the state of other programs. Without trying to influence your opinion, I think many would be jealous of where ND stands. Could we lose to a vastly less talented team? Sure. But it is just as likely we beat a better team. Fortunately, the teams like Clemson/Alabama/tOSU aren’t on our schedule, so how we compare to them has nothing to do with our record.
These are two different ways to reasonably gauge the potential of this team. If you go draw some conclusions of your own (ignore message boards and ESPECIALLY ignore spring and summer anecdotes) that is a pretty good way to set your expectations for the season.
Of course, if you set the bar at 7-5 you will probably enjoy the season more than just about any other ND fan.
And lastly. The one absolutely positive spin I will put on this season: We had a pretty good discussion in one of the other threads on takeaways. Whether you think players in the system should improve and lead to more INTs (no arguing that it is the players who make the plays), or that we just regress to the norm, it is a near certainty that we will have more takeaways than last year.
Something to note when comparing this team to 2015, if we scored 3 fewer pts in each game (we’d drop from #29 at 34.2 ppg to #41 between UM and MTSU) or allowed 3 more each game (#39 at 24.1 to #62 between Nevada and TCU), so pretty big drops, we would have tied BC, but wouldn’t have outright lost any additional games.
Basically, we could be worse, and even with the same schedule as last year (this one seems easier), we could still have the same record.
“Could we lose to a vastly less talented team? Sure. But it is just as likely we beat a better team.”
One of those we have a much higher tendency to do than the other.
1. Better than: 2010, 2011, 2013, and prob 2014. Not better than 2012 or last year.
2. I don’t know–we don’t have any heavyweights besides Stanford. USC is in transition and has a brutal schedule, so even if they are great they may have 3-4 losses by the time we play them. But our lack of heavyweights is part of the problem. CFB is about who you beat–and while we don’t have any cream puffs, we don’t really have anyone (again, besides Stanford) that anyone is going to think “oh…well…that’s impressive” when we beat them. So yes, this is me probably moving the goal posts, but even if we’re 10-2…are we any good? Or are we just better than 10 of the marginally good teams on our schedule? How you win matters, perception matters, and while we’re certainly better than we have been in some years, are we going to trip over a mediocre team again? UVA, BC, Temple…sure, we don’t play Bama or Clemson or tOSU, but that’s the level we want to be at, right? And it’s hard for me to feel we are when we have close calls against the worst teams on our schedule. (And before we start with the “we came back against Clemson” stuff, we did it against a team that turtled because of the hurricane and let us back in. Proud of our team, but anyone who thinks that in January we’d have stayed within 20 points of them in a playoff game, well…you have greater faith than I.)
So, sure, looking at the teams on our schedule, we SHOULD be better than 7-5, and I expect we will be. I’m just down right now, frustrated by the stuff going on.
I was only trying to talk you down from the 7-5 expectations. I don’t even bother attempting to make guesses on how “good” we will be.
If it makes you feel better. When you go 10-2, it doesn’t really matter how you do it. 11-1, how absolutely matters because you are competing for a playoff spot. But 10-2, not so much.
I would gladly take an unimpressive 10 win season this year, and most years, as ND has done that all of four times in the past 20 years.
Yeah, my 7-5 comment was hyperbolic. Like, it’s possible, but only in the “everything goes wrong: QB situation becomes a huge distraction and divides the team, defense lives up to all my fears, we have to play Yoon at WR due to injuries, etc.” type of year.
But it’s hard not to think we won’t take a step back. Every year I go through this–I see everyone predicting 12-0, 11-1 and I get really scared that when we don’t meet that standard, people will get all up in arms–when it’s their own unrealistic expectations that are the problem. I meanwhile assume everything will go wrong that can, and so if it doesn’t, hurray! Somewhere in the middle is probably accurate–which is why my prediction in the other thread a few days ago was 9-3.
Did anyone else catch what seemed like a contradiction in Kelly’s story about Max? I thought Max was kicked off the team and in a press conference right after he said he didn’t know whose gun it was. Then in this one Kelly said the difference with Max was that he was charged with illegal gun possession but the other 4 guys weren’t – except that just happened a few days ago. When he was kicked off the team, it was Max AND a couple other guys that were all charged right?
What’s he supposed to say, prior to charges being filed? “Yes, that was Max’s gun” gets him in trouble for revealing personal information before it’s made public by the prosecutor. “Yes, I know who’s gun it was, but I’m not telling yooooouuu~” is kind of a crap response. He didn’t want to wait to can Redfield, based on failed leadership + previous transgressions + (now we know) it being his gun. He had enough to justify his action publicly with just the first two.
Yea seems reasonable. I was just a little confused then and he tried to make it out that he found out after he told the media when it first happened. It seems he could have reasonably said yea I knew at that time but legally I couldn’t really talk about it. I’m not trying to get on his case about it I was just, as I said, a little confused by it at first.
It would have been legally prudent to handle it the way he did and I’m sure he had the advice of an attorney. Assuming however, that he found out who possessed and/or owned the gun from his interviews with the players, then it would not be illegal for him to make it public, it would just be a dumb idea for a number of reasons. I think the above comment about not wanting to disclose that information before the prosecutor is probably off base. There should have been no communication between Notre Dame and the DA’s office of the nature that is implied. (or does Indiana call them State’s Attorney’s – it varies). Notre Dame can obtain all of the police reports and related documents in the possession of the police subject to certain exceptions that may be in play for a while, e.g. where it would prejudice the investigation.
I didn’t imply there was or should have been communication between ND and the prosecutor. My point is only that it’s not Kelly’s prerogative to release that sort of information, it’s the State’s Attorney/Prosecutor/Police department/whomever, I’m not a lawyer. Nor did I suggest it was “illegal”–it would be a violation of the player’s privacy, not a punishable crime. It’s not Kelly (or ND’s) information to make public, so he wouldn’t have made a comment that confirmed anything prior to it being released by the authorities. I’m failing to see how that is “off base”.
I’ve read through my comment about 10 more times now, and I’m utterly baffled as to how you could read that as suggesting that ND and the DA(whomever) were in communication. Why would you jump to that assumption? Common sense says Kelly shouldn’t confirm any charges prior to them being actually charged–why would he say “yes, Max had a gun” before Max was actually charged with having a gun? That would be admission, even if third-hand and not admissible as testimony. And if common sense failed, the lawyer you correctly point out they would have been consulting would have said “don’t confirm or deny anything in your response.” None of that requires ND talking with or having any communication from the DA/authorities. As for the “illegal,” perhaps you’re reading my “get him in trouble” as “illegal”–but no, it’s getting in trouble for the same reasons (press coverage, issues with the student’s privacy) that you cite as “dumb idea for a number of reasons.”
The difference here I believe – and I am a lawyer but that’s not really important to our miscommunication – is that I don’t see BK’s reluctance to talk about as being driven by a desire to not preempt the prosecutor. They decide on the charges, but if a private individual knows a crime was committed by somebody then they are free to shout it from the mountaintops. For this reason, I read your comment as implying that BK had foreknowledge of what charges would end up being brought. Also, in response to the latest comment, we need not talk about the rules of evidence at this point. Investigators can try to talk to whom they want and they only needed to follow the news to know about BK’s sit-down with those boys. They could have shown up at ND and asked BK what they told him. BK is not an attorney. They won’t because this is about possession of weed, but when those kids had those sit-downs they should have been counseled by their attorney about the risk of what they said being disclosed to the police, which disclosure is not prohibited.
He may be free to shout it from the mountain tops, but as you said yourself, it would be a really bad idea. Hence, he didn’t do it. I think you’re putting way too much emphasis on “pre-empting the prosecutor” in my comment–it could be the gardener or the dog catcher for all I care. Whomever is the authority responsible for publicizing the charges, there’s no good reason to say anything about it prior to things being public. And so the best option for Kelly is to neither confirm nor deny who had the gun, who had the weed, etc.
The only foreknowledge I’m assuming BK had was what the kids told him. Of course, the prosecutor/whomever may then want to sit down with BK to find out what they told him. I’m not really concerned about that–I’m responding to IC’s questioning of BK’s contradictory comments from the first press conference to now. It’s completely logical that he’d be vague in the first one, even if the kids had told him who owned the gun, because the charges had not been made at the time. Now that they have, there’s no reason to dance around it. I don’t see it as a conscious decision not to “pre-empt the prosecutor” so much as a “it’s law enforcement/legal system’s job to make the charges and then make them public, not ours. I know what the players have told me, and based on that I have enough to decide to boot this player, but I’m not going to make the details of the conversations known to the media, for a variety of reasons.”
Could this also be that he was kicked off despite the gun ownership? I mean, if he was suspended from the bowl game, potentially told by Kelly that if he got in trouble again he was off the team…and now gets in trouble again, then the gun ownership has no influence at all in Kelly’s penalty. If that’s the case, Kelly may really not have any idea (or care) about the legal specifics. He just knows he told this senior player to not do anything stupid. Now that Redfield did this and also acted as a poor example to some younger players, Kelly may have just said, “enough is enough.”
That was my argument before the charges were released, and I agree it may still be the case. Again, the point is that it’s perfectly logical that he said “I don’t know” when asked who owned the gun previously, even if he was lying, and now he says it was Redfield.
I haven’t seen anything anywhere else, but David Haugh wrote that Redfield had some kind of disciplinary issue over the summer as well. So in a space of about eight months, you have him screwing up during bowl prep, screwing up minorly (one would think) somehow over the summer, and then riding in a car with a gun and weed with a bunch of underclassmen. That’s about as clear a last strike as it gets – I don’t know how much more indication you could possibly have that the kid just isn’t going to get it.