I’m coming around on the future NFL career of DeShone Kizer in the NFL. Sometimes the best remedy for anything is simply time. From the middle of the 2016 season through the beginning of the off-season you could say I was selling stock in Kizer.
So, I went into this article doing research and thinking it’d be super easy to find a bunch of plays that highlighted some of Kizer’s struggles. However, I was pleasantly surprised at how difficult it was to find the right plays that went wrong, as it were.
It was actually totally and amazingly refreshing. Kizer was really, really good in college and it stinks that he’s gone so quickly. We barely heard a peep out of him (aside from a brief performance in his first spring game) during his first year on campus and like a flash he’s gone.
Of course, the needs of NFL teams and the market this off-season will set Kizer’s draft spot more than how good he is in reality. For reference here are the quarterbacks selected in the first round over the previous 5 drafts:
Goff
Wentz
Lynch
Winston
Mariota
Bortles
Manziel
Bridgewater
Manuel
Luck
Griffin
Tannehill
Weeden
Among those 13 names I’d stump for Kizer being a better prospect coming out of college and certainly going on to have a stronger NFL career than 6 of those players. The problem is you could be the 7th or 8th best player among this list and still find yourself signing a 1-year $1.2 million deal while holding a clipboard in your 4th year and quickly figuring out what you’re going to do in your post-football life.
In order to avoid that fate here are 5 areas for Kizer to improve when the stakes get higher in the NFL.
Deep Ball
By no means is Kizer’s deep ball abilities a weakness but like many things at the next level he’ll have to clean things up especially in a professional league so reliant on big plays down field. This particular play from the Nevada game was early in the 2016 season and in reality Kizer’s fundamentals are pretty solid. He takes a quick 3-step drop, remains light on his feet*, and follows through on a decisive throw down the sideline.
*Kizer’s footwork has probably been among his biggest criticisms that I’ve seen. I don’t know, maybe I’m not a QB guru but I breezed through multiple games from 2016 and I was impressed with Kizer’s calmness with his feet and the ability to move around and quickly re-set before throwing. I kind of feel like among the things that show he’s pro ready after just 2 years it’s his footwork, especially for such a large quarterback.
The problem for Kizer is this is just a terrible throw left far too short of the target–and of course it was picked off to boot. Since it was early in the season and thrown to a true freshman we can probably excuse Kizer a little bit. He was coming off a season of throwing bombs to Will Fuller but probably didn’t think Stepherson could get this far down field in a hurry. Still, you can’t leave touchdowns passes 5 yards short when your receiver is blowing past a corner by 3 steps.
Internal Clock
Looking back over 2016 you’ll see Kizer making plays over and over again with poor to mediocre pass protection. Like I said above, it was really impressive to watch in mass quantities. However, if you remember one negative about last fall with Kizer it was holding on to the ball too much, especially at inopportune times.
This play against Michigan State was perhaps the worst of his career in this regard. The Irish were coming off a 3-touchdown streak and looking for the chance to finish off one of the best comebacks in school history. The Spartans only rush 4 which the offensive line handles easily after the snap.
Kizer could’ve run straight ahead, run to his right, thrown quickly to a couple short routes, and maybe even a throwaway keeps this drive alive instead of waiting so long and running straight into a pair of defenders. Notre Dame (somewhat controversially) called timeout and would never get the ball back in this loss.
Accuracy Across the Field
In the big picture it’s fair to say Kizer had to good but not quite elite accuracy for a college quarterback. As we get closer to the draft his accuracy is bound to be considered one of his strengths.
That being said, we saw a few too many of these clunker throws.
The weird thing is that there isn’t a huge flaw in Kizer’s process here. He’s into his drop quickly, settles his feet, and has his shoulders in a good enough position to deliver an accurate pass. And he still burns the ball into the ground. Perhaps worse, Kizer stares down Torii Hunter and had this been accurate it might have been intercepted.
On the positive ledger Kizer has a really quick release for someone nearly 6’5″ in height. On the negative ledger his arm strength–particularly on these cross-field throws–isn’t amazing for one of the biggest quarterbacks in college.
Timing Across the Field
In our 4th play we have a throw not dissimilar to the one directly above. The biggest difference being Kizer is far more deliberate with this throw here. He’s back quickly into his 3-step drop, stays light on his feet, and delivers the ball with confidence.
It’s just a second or two late and a little too high, as well. Although, in this case the ball being high prevents a greater likelihood of this being worse than just an incompletion.
The reverse angle really shows how this was a poor throw. Believe me, I wanted to blame an inexperienced Corey Holmes here but he does a good job breaking down on this hitch route. The ball should be there immediately after he first plants back toward the line of scrimmage. Instead, with the ball coming late it allows Adoree Jackson to do what he does best and that’s explode with speed at a prone receiver.
Standing Tall in the Pocket
Our last play is probably the least “bad” throw by Kizer–and certainly the least bad decision–but it may pinpoint an area where he’ll have to excel should he survive in the NFL.
The Trojans over-load the right side of the line and force right guard Mark Harrell to make a decision: block the middle linebacker or the safety. He chooses the linebacker which allows Leon McQuay to come completely free at the quarterback.
To Kizer’s credit, he realized the problem right away. He’s smart enough to know that by bringing 6 defenders someone is going to be open and you can almost see Kizer quickly glance slightly to his left to make sure tight end Durham Smythe get a free release off the line of scrimmage.
The issue here is that Kizer slides away from the pressure before he completes his drop. On the surface, not a terrible decision if you can deliver an accurate ball. It does provide him a split second longer time to get the ball out of his hands.
The problem is that Kizer doesn’t throw an accurate ball. Once he slides away from the pressure he’s not able to re-set his base and ends up throwing off his back foot and too far in front of Smythe. Someone like Aaron Rodgers can make this type of throw in his sleep but Kizer isn’t at that level yet.
With more seasoning Kizer could quickly diagnose that he outweighs McQuay by nearly 50 pounds and can stand his ground in the pocket. Smythe is open almost immediately and throwing quicker with good fundamentals while absorbing a hit from the safety makes this a first down throw.
Recap
It’s often stated that it takes just one team to fall in love with a player. It’ll be interesting to see what the Combine and Pro Day do to Kizer’s stock but as of right now he’s been slowly trending downward since the middle of the fall. Losing 10 out of your last 14 games probably isn’t helping too much, eh?
Perhaps worse, the market isn’t great for first round quarterbacks at the moment. The consensus seems to be that San Francisco (2nd), Buffalo (10th), and Cleveland (12th) are the only real suitors among the first 32 picks. The Bears at 3rd overall feels like it could be an option for a quarterback but nearly every outlet has Chicago skipping the position in favor of a defender. All of these teams could be looking for a quarterback early in the 2nd round in addition to the likes of San Diego, the Jets, or Cardinals.
Kizer is puzzling to me because I’m not sure how much potential he has at the next level. We know his experience in the Notre Dame offense has generally been a positive for him. Heck, everyone has agreed Deshaun Watson has bare minimum experience reading the field and going through progressions yet he’s still ahead of Kizer for most scouts.
Beyond good athleticism mixed with great size it’s difficult to look at Kizer’s skill-set and see a franchise quarterback. He’s really well-rounded (arguably this should go really far at the next level) but his accuracy isn’t Manning-like, his arm strength isn’t Favre-like, and he’s not Newton-like with his athleticism for someone so big.
However, we also have to factor in Kizer’s relative inexperience into his future growth. That type of potential might make him a future starter in the NFL although it also means you might not want to spend a first round pick on him. Remember, he’s thrown just 695 career passes in college whereas Notre Dame’s last top NFL picks (Clausen 1,110 attempts & Quinn 1,602 attempts) were enormously more experienced as passers.
That’s an enticing pick for some future NFL club but also inherently ultra-risky.
Best Player Comparison: Josh Freeman
Freeman was a little bigger but not as athletic as Kizer. Even still, their skill-sets are pretty similar coming out of college and Freeman even had a common ending to his career where his second-to-last season preceded a little bit of a disappointment in his final campaign.
Freeman was selected 17th overall in the 2009 NFL Draft and ended up starting in early November of his rookie year. He put together a very strong 2010 season, took a step back in 2011, and played one more final season in Tampa in 2012 before having his career fall off a cliff. He’s thrown 2,048 passes in the NFL with 61 starts but was not on a NFL roster this past season.
Thanks Eric, great up. Once again, I’m changing subjects completely. What are our chances of landing this Pagano kid from Clemson?
A quick google search says 32 schools reached out to him in less than a day. As expected, pretty much a who’s who:
LSU, Washington, Arizona State, Kentucky, Charlotte, North Carolina, Cal, Temple, Oklahoma State, FIU, FAU, East Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Nebraska, Maryland, Ole Miss, Utah State, Arkansas, Louisiana Tech, Texas A&M, Oregon, USC, Louisville, Oklahoma, Memphis, Ohio State, Baylor, Notre Dame, SMU, Purdue and Hawaii.
Dabo also said he wants to play on the West Coast, so unless that’s spin zone, ND doesn’t seem like a great fit unless they can change his mind. Would seem like a longshot to stand out in that type of crowd, unless he has some undiscovered interest in the program, which would have to be surprising.
Brian Polian – get his ass on a double whammy trip to South Carolina and Hawaii. Warm up those menehune magic tricks.
“As expected, pretty much a who’s who” …and Purdue
That sucks a little. Do you have any insight on it Brendan?
He cut it down to seven today and we’re in. He has spoken with the staff and right now it looks like we’ll get a visit from him. That’s it so far, but that’s as much as you could ask for.
I look forward to seeing how Kizer will do at the combine and pro day. Seems odd that the group-think of mock drafts has fallen out of favor with him not being a first round in many that I see these days. (I suppose they have to have guys to slide around since it seems like a lot like to create a new mock every week..)
Anyways, something tells me Kizer’s stock will go up through the process. Personable kid, certainly has the physical tools. As this article shows he’s got room for improvement. I hope he has a better career than Freeman, but we will see what fate holds. Ideally a patient and well-coached organization gets him. Kind of hope he ends up in a place like Arizona that could groom him the right way and give a better chance for success rather than an organization that will just throw him to the wolves and/or not have many weapons to work with (ala CHI, BUF, NYJ and especially Cleveland), with no offense meant to fans of any of those teams.
I think that the comparison to Freeman is mostly physical. The thing that often separates the QB’s with similar physical stature/skills is mental or the intangibles. There is some evidence that Kizer will turn out well in that area – but it’s hard to know for sure.
Fair enough and to be clear, it’s not that I think it to be an unfair comparison, just hopeful that Kizer can chart a different course in his career.
Being a life long Bears fan, I would love to see him go there. I agree it isn’t the best case scenario for him though.
Exactly hooks. I’m hoping he can too, and the mental part is where I’m hoping he has an edge and can make a better career of it. No doubt it also matters what team you are on too if you aren’t a top 3-5 QB.
IMO, I doubt his stock moves a bunch during the Combine and Pro Day. Unless he’s a workout warrior I don’t think his arm, speed, agility are going to blow scouts away. Smarts and personality probably don’t move the needle all too much.
I thought he surprised us a few times running away from some secondary players. At that size, if he really is that fast, could surprise some people.
What would you think would be a surprise?
If he’s around 230 pounds his 40 has to be under 4.7 to get into that range. I’m expecting something in the 4.65 to 4.8 range.
Watching him outrun Temple’s entire secondary might be my favorite Kizer highlight
I think that the workout results from the combine will affect mock drafts, but the smarts and personality will affect the actual draft (it seems like this is the type of info that teams gather in interviews, but most fans and mock draft builders are not privy to this info).
Right, I guess what I should emphasized that Kizer will (IMO) shine in the process as teams advance closer to draft day and that’s going to only help where he’s going to be picked, versus a lot of current mock drafts that don’t even have him in the 1st round. It’s only going to take 1 GM/owner/coach to fall in love with him and he could be picked as high as #2 overall.
Obviously a team is going to weigh what they see on tape and mistakes like ones in the post above, that counts. But with so many teams needing a QB I find it difficult to see his stock falling as the process makes it’s way to the actual draft.
Great write-up Eric… lots of good insight! I’m a big Kizer fan because of what he did for us in the 2015 season. Baptism by Fire. I think among his greatest assets, are his leadership abilities and will to win. He played aggressively and I too, would love to have him around for another year. I think most of his short-comings are correctable and perhaps some of them were exaggerated due to weaknesses on the O-Line. Cheers!