The progression of DeShone Kizer since arriving at Notre Dame has been fascinating. At first, a modestly recruited low 4-star to forgotten backup. After a high-profile transfer suddenly a backup, after an injury suddenly the starter. This off-season momentum picked up for Kizer as a top NFL Draft pick. What an amazing and meteoric rise!

Notre Dame has lost 8 out of its last 11 games and while the problems run far deeper than the play at quarterback the play of DeShone Kizer this year has been curious to watch unfold.

Against Navy his numbers looked plenty fine: 223 passing yards, 70% completions, 3 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. However, there weren’t many people who watched the game and walked away feeling like Kizer was playing at a high level.

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The first drive featured a healthy amount of passes–seven in all–culimating in a touchdown. Three out of his first 5 throws were really poor. A slant to Stepherson is thrown behind him, a screen to Dexter is air mailed, and a dangerous seam route to Sanders is also far too high and off target.

The touchdown pass featured great pass protection but even that ball flutters and isn’t a tight spiral.

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On the second drive Kizer attempted 5 more passes, two of which are near identical low passes to his left that do not allow the receiver any opportunity for YAC.

Additionally, on the third down prior to kicking the field goal on this drive Kizer has both short routes wide open and doesn’t even turn his head to the left. Compounding the problem, he then ruins perfectly good pass protection by stepping up into the pocket and right in the face of a defensive end forcing himself to 360-spin away and get gang tackled before barely getting the ball out to Smythe’s feet.

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On more than one ocassion the broadcast was pointing out blatantly wide open receivers that Kizer was missing with his reads.

Drive #3 featured just 2 passes following Navy’s failed 4th down conversion. Kizer over-throws Stepherson down the seam and gives St. Brown no chance on a third down throw well over his head.

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Drive #4 featured only two passes, as well. On this drive the Irish ran the ball 8 times with the running backs–or just over 42% of all running back carries in the entire game.

Stepherson took a screen pass for 6 yards and a nice play-action dump-off to Smythe for Kizer’s second touchdown pass.

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Drive #5 saw Kizer go 5 for 5 and finish with a touchdown. A quick in-route, another screen, a sideline pass, another screen, and the crossing route to St. Brown which would end in a head-over-heels touchdown.

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Drive #6 would be the final drive and it ended with a field goal. There would be 6 pass attempts from Kizer, plus I’ve included Navy’s only sack on the day in this GIF, too.

Kizer made an admirable quick decision on a nice slant to Hunter, takes a sack, throw his best ball of the day to Stepherson, goes back to Stepherson on a stop route, misses Hunter in the end zone, flies a past over Stepherson’s head, and throws behind Stepherson on a shallow crossing route that was still hauled in by the receiver.

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What’s Going On with Kizer?

First, some sort of injury wouldn’t surprise me. Several passes fluttered against Navy and the zip doesn’t seem to be there like it has been in the past.

He hasn’t seemed as comfortable in the pocket as in the past which could mean he’s pressing, or an injury is bothering him. At any rate, something is happening that is affecting his footwork which is leading to some really poor accuracy.

The hot button topic is to ask whether Kizer is regressing. It’s really tough to tell, in my opinion. He clearly doesn’t have the help that was there from last year. The rushing average is down a monumental 1.45 yards per carry which is a huge difference. There’s no doubt that having Will Fuller around makes the deep pass easier and more productive.

The accuracy is really bothersome, though. Take a look at the places that Kizer threw the ball on Saturday against Navy:

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This looks more like a passing map we’d see if Malik Zaire came in and had to play the entire game. There is an overabundance of short passes and throughout there is far too much inaccuracy. The deep passing game has been downgraded and that’s okay given the young receivers but this short-passing game can’t really thrive with a lack of accuracy.

It’ll be interesting to see how Kizer’s NFL stock looks by the end of this year where he may be finishing up his Notre Dame career with mediocre performances against good defenses in Virginia Tech and USC among a legacy of a 4-win season. There haven’t been a ton of new scouting reports since the early part of the season when Kizer was being talked about as the possible top quarterback.

His stock is definitely going to take a hit, for sure. It’s possible he drops into a second or third round pick but who knows how that will really play out in the end. If Kizer does end up leaving I’d be very wary of him succeeding, at least over his first few seasons.

He quietly doesn’t have great arm strength, especially for his size. His athletic ability–again combined with his size–is a plus in college but will be diminished in the NFL. For a while, it seemed like Kizer had Big Ben-like pocket presence and scrambling ability but his decision making has been one of the areas he seems to have regressed.

Bottom line, if the accuracy doesn’t improve this isn’t a starting NFL quarterback in the future. I was thinking about this Navy game and junior year Jimmy Clausen would have torched the defense on Saturday. He had phenomenal accuracy and couldn’t cut it in the NFL. Early this season so much of Kizer’s stock was wrapped up in potential but the more he plays we’re seeing that maybe his ceiling is a lot more limited than most thought.