Things are beginning to take shape and teams are beginning to rise to the top of the 2016 college football mountaintop. We’re at that sweet spot in the season when the big non-league games are past us and we’ve seen a glimpse into a few of the more important conference games.
There’s no better place to begin than at the top of the current AP Poll where half a dozen teams have jockeyed their way to the front of the College Football Playoff discussions.
The top 3 in the country is locked up right now. I’ve tried to make a case for Alabama not to be in the top spot and I can’t really make a great one. Although, their 53 first-place votes seems a little excessive. For the Tide, their two best wins (USC & Ole Miss) look somewhat better after strong performances from the Trojans and Rebels this weekend.
With Clemson’s win over Louisville this Saturday they sort of feel like the No. 1 team now. We know their recent history (22 wins in their last 23 games) and they now have the unquestioned best win of the season. Interestingly, it was almost like the Tigers suffered a championship hangover to start the season without actually winning the title. To be fair, their gritty road win at Auburn looks a little better now.
Ohio State is quietly kicking ass once again despite a pretty weak schedule highlighted by their road win at Oklahoma. The Buckeyes are +191 in point differential and +3.6 YPP differential which are both national championship worthy indicators. I don’t know how any non-Michigan team is going to touch them in the Big Ten yet they still have (as of right now) 4 more ranked teams to play.
Welcome back to the nation’s elite, Washington! In case you missed it the Huskies out-gained Stanford by over 200 yards and won last Friday by 38 points. They have a swarming, attacking defense, smart and accurate quarterback, plus several speedy playmakers on offense. Surprisingly, you’d think Washington could put a clamp on the Pac-12 North this weekend against Oregon but the Ducks are already 0-2 in league play!
So, let’s talk about Michigan for a second. They got past Wisconsin 14-7 but the score flattered the Badgers. Michigan severely out-gained them and limited Wisconsin to just 159 total yards. I’m not sure there’s anyone remaining on the Michigan schedule before the final week who can score more than a couple touchdowns on them. A 11-0 start seems highly likely before Ohio State shows them how average their offense is this year.
Things get pretty interesting when you look at Louisville and Houston, of course they will be playing each other in a de facto knockout game in a few weeks. The bigger question is what happens with the winner? The Big Ten, SEC, and ACC all look well positioned to place someone into the playoffs. If Washington trips up (let’s say on the road at Utah) but otherwise breezes through the Pac-12 would they make it over undefeated Houston or 1-loss Louisville? It’d be crazy to see an on-fire Tom Herman left out while Louisville would by far have the best loss and be riding a decent winning streak even while sitting at home for conference championship week.
The collection of Texas A&M, Tennessee, Miami, Nebraska, and Baylor are being eyed suspiciously while currently undefeated. Baylor looks like the Big 12’s only hope for a playoff spot and that’s not trending particularly well after a near-loss in Ames. Let’s set the over/under on the regular season losses for the 5 teams above at 9.5 where would you bet?
Wisconsin and Stanford are still in the Top 15 after getting beaten up pretty badly. Can you trust their offenses? They now sit 105th and 99th respectively in yards per play.
We live in a world where not only is Colorado ranked but they could really put themselves in the driver’s seat to win the Pac-12 South this weekend. In doing so, they’d also pretty much bury USC in the process. This is fun!
If you want to buy North Carolina stock do so quickly because they face two more big tests in the next couple weeks and then cruise over their last 5 games with a very manageable schedule. Larry Fedora is also picking up steam as a hot coach who could jump to a bigger job at the end of the season, too. The offense has always been there but they’re giving up 31 points per game which is difficult to trust.
With three teams in the Top 10 and 6 teams overall in the Top 25 is this the year of the ACC?
Perhaps the biggest (only?) upside to ND’s terrible start is that we don’t really have to worry about how our opponents are doing, and so we can cheer without reservation against our rivals every game. It was weird hoping Stanford would pull it out against Oregon last November; I much more enjoyed rooting for Washington to continue laying it on Friday night.
To that end, I wonder who the ND fan rooting interest should be going forward. Factors should be, among others: (A) not a rival, (B) not somebody who we typically get in recruiting battles with, and (C) coach not a prick. I think the order might be:
(1) Washington – this is easy. If you’re not on the Washington bandwagon, you are wrong.
(2) Houston
(3) Colorado
(4) Nebraska
(5) Miami – (except the game we’re playing them, of course)
….
(Tied: DFL) – Michigan, Ohio State, Stanford
Always look on the bright side of life! It’s fun rooting against teams and not worrying about strength of schedule. I’m in agreement on your top two, but I’d put Miami higher (except for our game). I was raised a UGA fan and I really like Mark Richt. Before this past weekend’s games, I saw a tweet saying “I, for one, accept our new CFP overlords: Louisville, Washington, Wisconsin, and Tennessee”. I suppose Washington and Tennessee kept their chances alive.
Michigan is so far below any other team on my “rooting interest” scale that they’d be crushed by the iron-nickel alloy* inner core of the Earth.
*Source: Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_core
I grew up as an ND fan in the 1980’s. While there are teams I dislike more (USC, Michigan, Florida, Bama, Ohio State, to name a few), I can’t root for Miami, and I do like Richt. But Miami does not deserve nice things.
I’m on that bandwagon.
The top 25 is what makes ND’s woes so incredibly frustrating. The top 25 as a whole seems historically weak and it wouldn’t take very much to stay in the top 10-15. Teams are getting completely pantsed and retaining their ranking for lack of a better option.
There are only 4 teams in the top 15 who aren’t undefeated though. And only one in the top 10 (who barely lost to the #3 team in the country).
Interesting. Seems like every year no one is very happy with the non-elite teams and everyone outside the top 3 teams or so have major flaws.
I guess this year might not be different but I think things are trending towards a super strong top 6 or 7 teams.
Cannot grok this. After 2012, I figured Colorado would never beat another FBS opponent and just forgot about them entirely. Now I’ll imagine this scene happening at every CU fundraiser:
I may be on dope, but watching Stanford vs UCLA and Washington, it wouldn’t surprise me if we beat them. Their offense is awful. Even with our weak defense, I think we can outscore them so long as McCaffrey is reasonably contained. Neither of their QBs looks that good and their line hasn’t jelled.
Not on dope at all. I watched the second half of the Stanford-Washington game, and I came away with two very clear impressions: Washington is really good, and Stanford is really… not. Obviously the score was extremely lopsided, but I think the actual beatdown was worse than the score would indicate. Stanford doesn’t really look to have anything to hang their hat on offensively this year; their passing game is, charitably, pedestrian, and their run game is uninspiring. The defense was pushed all over the field. The worst part for them is that they were thoroughly and completely dominated in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They looked like they didn’t belong on the same field with the Huskies.
Hell, they threw out of the shotgun twice on separate 4th and 2 attempts. The shotgun!!! Not even pretending that they might run, even with Christian McCaffrey in the backfield, which tells you all you need to know about what they think of their own run game. They ran for 30 yards on 28 carries in that game. Where has the #MANBALL Stanford offense gone? And speaking of McCaffrey, he’s good, but I don’t think he’s great. He goes stuff, stuff, stuff, pop, stuff, stuff. They don’t have a gimme against Wazzu this week.
TL,DR: We have plenty of issues, but so do they. They look like a 7-5 team right now.
//Stanford Runs for Record 500 yds Against ND//
I get the (sort-of-but-not-really) joke, but… I think our run defense is generally going to be OK. I’ll be nervous about any team’s ability to shred us through the air, however incompetent they’ve looked previously, until the defense proves that their last three quarters of play are the new rule and not the same old exception.
Dope? What’s that?
What is dope? Dope is whack, dude. There’s no hope in it.
I’m just a simple man. I root for every top team to lose, unless they’re playing the skunk bears, convicts or the condoms. I detest those teams and love seeing them crushed and to hear the wailing of their women.
What can I say? I’m a sharer. I want to share my pain with the rest of the college football world.
* lamentations, not wailing
That is what is best in
Lifecollege football.Add the bucknuts to that list and I’m with you.
Western Michigan has a clear path to being undefeated going into their final-week matchup against Toledo.
It is entirely possible we see the Broncos in a NY6 Bowl — in which case you can bet your bottom dollar I will do everything in my power to score tickets (I’m in my senior year at WMU, for those of you who didn’t know).
So you’re rooting pretty hard against Houston, right? Undefeated or not, I don’t see any way the committee would put two Group of 5 teams in the NY6 games. Your hopes may hinge on Louisville’s ability to derail the Herman Hype Train.
100% hoping Lamar Jackson puts up 70 on the Cougs