As we pass the hours and minutes until the 2024 season kicks off, it’s time for a spin through the Notre Dame schedule of opponents for the upcoming year. Which opponents inspire the most fear for a loss this fall, what are the biggest question marks or swing factors, and what rationale has a chance at convincing Irish fans to relax?

Note: Statistics below heavily leverage F+ results from 2023 and 2024 projections, which combines Bill Connelly’s SP+ and Brian Fremeau’s FEI and lives here.

Texas A&M

(Required Reading: ISD’s Jamie Uyeyama does incredible offseason and game week breakdowns, check out his preview here. If you prefer a video / pod, Greg Flammang’s and Chris Wilson’s with former ND and current A&M beat reporter Carter Karels are also excellent.)

Reasons for Fear: The most talented opponent, on the road, with massive stakes

Things escalate very quickly! Right off the bat, Notre Dame will put a shaky recent away record to the test at Kyle Field in primetime. Even in the portal era where massive turnover is the baseline, A&M is a hard team to evaluate. But it’s an extremely tough test out of the gate with the Aggies collection of top-end talent, potential for a significant coaching bump, and new faces to break in in key places for the Irish offense.

SP+ is somehow higher on the A&M offense, but the defense is higher rated in FEI and in my eyes is a far surer bet. Despite some high profile losses this is a top-20 defense from last year that brings in a wizard in Mike Elko and returns one of the best defensive lines in the nation. There are question marks in the secondary that Elko was very aware of and has thrown volume at in the transfer portal looking for a couple of hits.

Last year the Aggies were quite good limiting efficiency (17th in opponent success rate) but struggled with explosives both on the ground (91st) and through the air (104th). Historically, this is Elko’s greatest strength! Stylistically, he trends far more towards bend but don’t break (much like his protege Clark Lea) vs. high havoc with more frequent busts. His defenses tend to be patient waiting for the upper hand and then excelling on passing downs (which Notre Dame would very much like to avoid, given the unproven OL and newness of virtually all ingredients in the passing game).

The offense from 2023 has a terrible reputation but doesn’t look awful when you look under the hood (and account for QB Conner Weigman’s injury combined with Jimbo Fisher’s mid-season firing). The Aggies created a lot of scoring chances (5th in Eckel rate, the percentage of drives you create scoring chances on) but were bad converting them into points (81st in points/Eckel or scoring chance). The offensive line was the limiting factor, where A&M was one of the worst blue chip programs in pressure rate allowed and blown blocking assignments. That translated into an EPA (expected points added) on early downs that ranked just 72nd.

Most of those games were also without Weigman, who enters with a blue chip pedigree (22nd nationally in the 247 composite) and some strong early-career performances*. The asterisk is that those strong performances are mostly 1) crushing bad defenses and 2) in a very small sample. However, he’s a tools-y prospect whose film and flashes have even led some to float him as a dark horse candidate for QB1 in next year’s draft.

Weigman is very good athlete who moves well in the pocket under pressure, and while the receivers are unproven there’s a portfolio of talent there between returners Noah Thomas, Moose Muhammad, and Jahdae Walker and transfer Cyrus Allen. Marcus Freeman at the very least thought hard about hiring Collin Klein, who should bring a boost to this offense and has had great success with Will Howard (who is essentially a bigger Weigman with less dynamic upside).

Even before the FSU loss, A&M was the team with the highest potential on the schedule thanks to the talent on hand and upgrade to Elko’s defense and Klein’s offense.

Reasons to relax: Is either side of the ball elite, especially out of the gate?

While A&M is brimming with untapped potential, they also aren’t projected to be top-10 on offense or defense for a reason. The offensive line is stuck in a classic “they were bad, but they’re all bad!” trap that we’ve seen SP+ and other systems tend to fall for (somehow this happened with Sam Howell at UNC multiple times in his career). Weigman could definitely break out in this game, but his gaudy numbers have largely come in games with a big talent advantage and throwing to more talented wide receivers like Evan Stewart (now at Oregon) and Ainias Smith (now with the 5th round pick of the Eagles).

Weigman may trust his talent a little too much  under pressure, and we’ve seen Al Golden draw up incredible game plans that threw off far more experienced QBs like CJ Stroud and Caleb Williams. The running backs and wide receivers are a collection of guys the Aggies are banking on to break out (sound familiar?) but are mostly unproven and . Then you factor in that this is the first game in Collin Klein’s system, and there’s a lot that has to come together to score on a defense that’s projects to be a top-10 unit if not better.

Defensively, Elko is terrific but there are a lot of questions to check off before that unit elevates into the top-10. How will the interior of the defensive line hold up against the run? Can they find answers from in-house or the portal at linebacker and in the secondary? How quickly will the back end of the defense gel, and can they limit explosive plays and opponent pass efficiency?

Big Questions: Which OL wins enough? Which QB makes more plays and avoids the big mistake?

I have no idea how roughly 46 points are getting scored in this game (Vegas knows!). Notre Dame’s defense looks like the single best unit in this game, but the Irish OL is the glaring weakest position group. Both defensive lines should win early and often – but which offensive line can hold up enough?

Related, which QB will make enough clutch plays – with their arms or legs – and avoid turnovers? Both Weigman and Leonard are ultra-talented but should be under consistent pressure (and put in tough situations). The quarterback who makes enough heroic plays – and resists the urge to be heroic at the wrong moments – will likely decide this game.

Fear Factor: 8.8/10

Purdue

Reasons for Fear: A sleepy Irish road performance combined with an offensive leap and Ryan Walters magic

Ok, a lot needs to go right for the Boilers to threaten the Irish as three touchdown underdogs. But there’s some decent pieces in place here, especially on offense. Hudson Card is talented and closed 2023 on a high note, and should benefit from his second year in Graham Harrell’s system. The offensive line returns a ton of continuity, and the RB room has strong experience and production with returning starter Devin Mockobee and Illinois transfer Reggie Love.

The Purdue defense finished 63rd in Defensive F+ last year and will need some Ryan Walters magic to boost things in 2024. It’s a tough ask with sparse returning production, but Walters has this job because of his talent identification and development work on that end at Illinois. There’s not much to lose for Purdue and they can be aggressive challenging the still-forming Irish OL and new skill position weapons in this matchup.

This will also be a second road game in three weeks against an opponent Notre Dame could overlook. Despite huge talent advantages the Irish haven’t been able to separate from Purdue in recent meetings, with the last four wins coming by an average of 10 points per game.

Reasons to Relax: An entirely new WR corps and defense banking on transfers

Despite the continuity at QB and OL, this is an entirely new WR group with last season’s four leading pass catchers out the door. That seems like a problem for a Graham Harrell offense! Card could make a leap to consistently competent and a little dangerous, but can he truly lift the Purdue offense to score multiple touchdowns on this Notre Dame defense?

Purdue’s defense has a few veteran returning starters that should keep a solid floor, especially on the defensive line and with star sophomore safety Dillon Thieneman patrolling deep. But there’s not a lot of quality depth and a ton of turnover in the secondary, where the Boilers were gashed often with explosive plays.

Walters is gambling on talent with a very heavy transfer portal class. 11 of their 14 incoming transfers are P4 cast-offs, including four from UGA. It’s a bet on these cast-offs shining in a new situation that carries with it a lot of volatility and downside.

Big question: Can Purdue’s rested defense keep things tight early?

The Boilermakers open with a game against FCS Indiana State, a bye week, then the national TV showdown with their in-state enemies in Week 3. They’ll have had an offseason to really save any new wrinkles and twists for the Irish and try to catch them off guard with their first scripted drives and potentially new looks and personnel groupings.

If this is a Notre Dame team that isn’t really built from behind, Purdue’s best shot is creatively manufacturing some early points and the defense finding enough stops early. That last part feels like the biggest challenge – in Walters’ first year the Boilers allowed 30+ points in 8 of 12 games last season. I don’t see Purdue scoring near 30 in this matchup, and the only teams that fell below that mark were Virginia Tech (pre-QB change), Illinois (laid a complete egg), Iowa (is Iowa), and Northwestern (98th in Offensive F+).

Fear Factor: 4.2/10

Miami OH

Reasons for Fear: A defense capable of turning this into a slugfest?

I created the graphics for and originally only included P4 Notre Dame opponents, which isn’t fair to the Redhawks who have a legitimate case as the 6th toughest game on the schedule.

Miami’s defense finished 23rd in F+ last year and enough of the returning pieces are intact (40th in defensive returning production) that it should be the class of the MAC again. Chuck Martin would love nothing more than making this game into a defensive struggle with few possessions and more potential for chaos with turnovers, special teams, and penalties.

Reasons to Relax: The offense is probably dreadful again

For as strong as Miami’s defense could be again, the offense is projected 118th and has finished in the 110s in consecutive years. Per Bill Connelly’s preview, the Redhawks were 124th in rushing success rate. A healthy Brett Gabbert season could help, as the 24-year-old as seen some things in his long career, but without some defensive and special teams magic I’m not sure this Miami team can score more than 13 points in a best-case scenario.

Big question: What is the state of the Irish offense by Week 4?

The most likely scenario here is that Notre Dame’s offensive line is coming together by this point – at least to the level of winning these matchups against Miami. There’s hopefully more clarity as well on the receiver rotation and pecking order, with the Denbrock-Leonard partnership also growing by the week.

But there’s a low-likelihood, high danger scenario where the offense is not in a great place, likely driven by OL struggles (think early 2021 or 2018 before Ian Book). If that’s the case, this game has the potential (far more than Northern Illinois) to turn into a Ball State or Toledo type of affair that’s too close for comfort.

Fear Factor: 4.8/10

Louisville

Reasons for Fear: A very good defense and Jeff Brohm

This is a copy and paste from last season’s preview, where the reason for fear was “Brohm offense + decent defensive bones”. The defense turned out to be better than decent, dropping from 2022 but still to a top-25 level. And Brohm was able to manufacture enough offense – taking an early lead with a touchdown on a scripted drive (with Jack Plummer running speed option?) and the Cardinals finding some explosive runs in the second half.

The defense projects to be roughly the same level as last year (26th in F+ preseason ratings) with the offense in the top 40. Brohm has against dipped into the transfer portal for a veteran QB (Tyler Shough) and skill position talent (Alabama’s Ja’Corey Brooks and South Alabama’s Caullin Lacy). Brohm has elevated less talented QBs than Shough and excels at getting the ball in the hands of his most talented weapons.

Reasons to Relax: Many conditions for another Cardinals upset are not there

Can Brohm pull off an upset for a second year in a row? The degree of difficulty should be higher in 2024 – on the road versus at home, and facing a Notre Dame team that should be better rested and deeper than in 2023 (when the Irish were playing their third straight night game against a quality opponent).

The Irish are also unlikely to turn it over five times again. Those giveaways paired with rare explosive runs allowed by Al Golden’s defense gave the Louisville offense life. For the season, the Cardinal offense struggled when they weren’t successful on early downs – ranking 96th in 3rd/4th down conversion percentage.

Big question: Is Brohm’s transfer overhaul sustainable into Year 2?

After taking 25 transfers in his first offseason, Brohm followed it up with 28(!) this winter and spring. A few high-profile acquisitions (RB Peny Boone and DE Tyler Baron) bailed in the spring, but it’s still an incredible amount of roster churn that needs to come together for their fourth game in South Bend. Jack Plummer worked well as an acquisition, and I trust Brohm’s eye for QB talent, but Shough is way less reliable given his injury history.

It’s a lot to pull off! But I do think the defensive line talent, Brohm’s ability to manufacture offense and generally be a pain as an underdog with aggressiveness and trick play potential, and the skill position talent make this a dangerous game.

Fear Factor: 7.1/10

Stanford

Reasons for Fear: Troy Taylor + continuity

Besides the 2022 experience, there aren’t a lot of reasons to fear this Cardinal team. Second year head coach Troy Taylor is in the midst of a massive rebuild, to the point where its a clear consensus this team will be far better than last year’s and they are still picked to finish dead last in the ACC.

The reason for optimism is that Troy Taylor looks like a quality hire (Aside: Can you believe we this close to killing two birds with one stone with Stanford hiring Jason Garrett?) And there’s a ton of returning production from a very young roster a season ago. Elic Ayomanor is the best receiver the Irish will face, and the offense could be frisky for a series or two.

Reasons to Relax: A long way to go in the rebuild

There’s still just a lack of top-end talent and quality depth on this Stanford team, and the defense may only improve from “absolute disaster” levels to “mostly incompetent”. QB Ashton Daniels showed flashes last year but is still listed as a co-starter for Week 1 with both Syracuse transfer Justin Lamson and true freshman Elijah Brown. The inexplicable 2022 loss will also ensure the Irish don’t look past this Stanford team.

Big question: Will the Cardinal already be wearing down in the ACC schedule?

It’s not that late into the season, but Stanford will come to South Bend as their third road game in four straight weeks of games. They’ll travel across the country to Syracuse for a Friday night matchup, return home just to fly back to Clemson the following week, then host Virginia Tech before jetting to Indiana.

That’s a pretty taxing travel schedule combined with at least two consecutive challenging games with the Hokies and the Tigers (we will see about the Orange). Meanwhile, the Irish will be coming off of a bye week and should be rested and prepared.

Fear Factor: 3.9/10

Georgia Tech

Reasons for Fear: Haynes King leads a dynamic offense, Brent Key loves upsets

This section had to be revised after the Week 0 upset of Florida State in Ireland, but the themes remain the same. The Yellow Jacket’s offense improved dramatically last year, with Haynes King emerging as one of the most dangerous (and chaotic) dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation. He returns, along with emerging star OC Buster Faulkner, to lead a dynamic rushing attack and offense that should be a top-40 unit.

HC Brent Key has also shown a knack for upsets, winning 10 games as an underdog since 2022 and 5-0 against ranked ACC opponents. This is the rare team that can possibly drag Notre Dame into a shootout if operating near their ceiling offensively.

Reasons to Relax: A shaky defense and turnover-prone offense

Maybe the projection systems are massively underrating the Tech defense, which still sits at 78th in Defensive F+ after Week 0. This was a bad defense a season ago that’s likely to only improve so much despite significant continuity. The performance in Ireland could be the signs of a huge turnaround, or could be more indicative of an FSU offense that will struggle with DJ Uiagelelei at QB and a lack of threatening skill position players.

King is also an unstable compound at QB. He’s explosive and in the elite tier of running QBs with Riley Leonard, Jalen Milroe, and Jalon Daniels. He’s not an efficient passer (73rd in pass success rate in 2023) and led the ACC with 16 interceptions. Al Golden’s defense will seek to put King in passing downs and lure him into some turnover opportunities.

Big question: Can the Irish defense slow down the GT rushing attack?

If the Jackets can run the ball effectively, this becomes a far scarier match-up. Tech has the ability – especially as an underdog, as FSU learned – to pull out a Navy-like strategy if opponents can’t stop the run. It’s a gameplan that can minimize King’s passing attempts and turnover potential, slows the game down to a few possessions each half, and increases variance as more talented opponents can’t separate.

Notre Dame will need to balance aggression and dedicating enough resources to the rush defense with preventing explosive plays. Throwing the Yellow Jackets into a deficit – both off schedule in possessions or behind in the game – will play in Marcus Freeman’s favor. But if they have a hard time slowing down King and RB Jamal Haynes, this can go from a multiple score win to a toss-up game very quickly.

Fear Factor: 6.5/10

Florida State

Reasons for Fear: A high floor team that could be better in November

Let’s not overreact to Week 1- I think this team still can be ACC contending quality. There’s too much talent – especially in both trenches – for the bottom to fall out. Yes, they were pushed around by Georgia Tech, but I think the defense will come together to find the right talent at linebacker and in the secondary to re-set.

The offensive showing is a little harder to explain away, but by November either Mike Norvell will have figured some things out with DJU or moved on to a younger, high-upside QB that he’ll let push the ball down the field. The opening loss reminds me a bit of Clemson last year – clearly showing this is a team that’s not top-10 caliber and has flaws, but one that will be unable to pull things together with strong week to week performances later.

Reasons to Relax: Is there a passing game to be unlocked? And can ND run the GT offensive gameplan?

The Seminoles clearly planned to lean on the running game this season, banking on Uiagelelei to be a steady hand to raise the floor and provide some complementary passing. Week 0 certainly challenged that belief – and even before then, there seemed to be a pretty clear ceiling for this offense – we know who DJU is and isn’t at this point. To add to his limitations, FSU has some fairly shocking gaps in terms of WR talent as they seek to replace Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. There’s transfer options and young blue chippers who may break out later, but this isn’t a passing game that I think threatens the ND secondary.

The other strength FSU was relying on was the defense, especially the line. But if Haynes King and Georgia Tech can move them around, what’s to prevent Mike Denbrock from leveraging a similar plan with Riley Leonard? The Noles will, like many opponents, have to hope to win a slugfest on the road. But it looks like there’s early cracks in their rushing defense the Irish may be able to exploit.

Big question: What’s the state of Tomahawk Nation in November?

My expectation is that this FSU team rebounds from the opening loss and remains a top 15-25 opponent (you could really extend it to top 15-30, where there’s a large chunk of similar programs). But if the disappointment of the opener extends into a slump and exit from playoff and ACC contention in October, what type of team will show up in South Bend?

The ACC schedulers didn’t do the Seminoles any favors – the away game at Notre Dame will be their 8th consecutive game week in a row after an early Week 2 bye. The October stretch leading up to the ND game – hosting Clemson, at Duke, at Miami, back to Tallahassee against UNC – is no cakewalk. There’s a lot of ways you can see this team being tired, defeated, and less than enthused about a chilly night game in Notre Dame Stadium.

Fear Factor: 7.4/10

Virginia

Reasons for Fear: Tons of returning production

As you can see above, the Cavaliers return a ton on both sides of the ball. QB Anthony Colandrea is a young, gunslinging option that injected some life into Virginia late last year. He has no fear of turnovers (mostly, I mean this in a negative way) but they desperately need some upside, and there’s a bundle of productive WRs to throw to between transfers and returner Malachi Fields.

The defense is too experienced to stay incredibly bad. Especially up front they should be able to hold up better against the run. The pass defense was the better half of that unit and loses four of five starters, but will try to bridge the gap with transfers. The offense and rushing defense each taking some solid steps will go a long way.

Reasons to Relax: Everyone who is back is not as helpful as they need

The defense is too experienced to stay bad, but these guys are not good. The defensive line was the lowest graded by PFF in the P5 last year and didn’t add anyone in the portal. The offensive line also struggled last year and will likely not provide much push in the run game and force Colandrea to run for his life most of the year. The best case scenario for this team is a below average defense paired with a decent passing attack – that’s not the formula to beat Notre Dame.

Big question: Will Chris Tyree have a warm homecoming?

I don’t have many big questions here, I like Chris Tyree, and I hope he has a nice visit for Senior Day. “Is Tony Elliott still coaching this game?” is also a valid (but darker) question here.

Fear Factor: 3.8/10

USC

Reasons for Fear: Lincoln Riley does his thing on offense, the defense takes a leap

The scary formula for the Trojans is an obvious one – the offense does what projections expect and maintains a top 5-10 level of play, while the defense takes a massive step forward under new DC D’Anton Lynn. It’s a ton to lose from the #4 offense last season and not expect a drop-off – out go Caleb Williams, Marshawn Lloyd, Tajh Washington, and Brenden Rice. But Riley’s track record is pretty impeccable since his Oklahoma days – the man just churns out top-10 (usually top 5) offenses.

And the cupboard isn’t bare. Miller Moss is a borderline top-100 recruit, and if he stumbles UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava offers a talented alternative. Zachariah Branch is terrifying with the ball in his hands and Duce Robinson is a future pro. They will score points.

Lynn comes into a pretty favorable situation with some talented transfers, strong returning production, and performance under Alex Grinch that can’t get much worse. He engineered an incredible one-year turnaround at UCLA (87th to 12th in Defensive F+), and won’t need anything nearly that dramatic to turn this into a dangerous team.

Reasons to Relax: Are we sure about these offensive projections?

It feels like the projection systems are putting the Trojans offense far closer to their ceiling than likely outcome. Maybe there’s some Ewing theory potential with Caleb Williams departing, then forcing Riley to put in more effort to design an offense to work for less extraordinary QB. But it feels like a decent decline is the most likely outcome and one where things slip significantly is not out of the question.

Big question: Is the defensive improvement greater than the offensive regression?

How far can the defense improve – to a top-60 level? Top-40? The defense is filled with blue chip talent, but most of that talent has transferred to Los Angeles for a reason. An early depth chart shows 10 of 11 defensive starters as transfers from either last offseason or the most recent one for Lincoln Riley.

My hunch is that the offensive regression and defensive improvement will roughly offset each other. Against a tough schedule, are you confident in Moss and the young receivers outscoring LSU, Michigan, Penn State, or Notre Dame?

Fear Factor: 7.0/10

The Notre Dame schedule, visualized

(Editor’s Note: Rankings here are from the summer SP+ projections and have slightly changed, so may be inconsistent with the data above. But teams are all still roughly in the same places.)