Breaking down Notre Dame football’s loss to Michigan State with advanced stats, and what the numbers tell us about the end of the Brian Van Gorder era…

In a very dark way, it’s funny to me that every time we’ve played Michigan State since 2006 the Mike Valenti rant from that epic collapse, and then after losses (this year, 2012) Notre Dame fans turn Irish websites and message boards into a reincarnation of that tirade. I apologize in advance for a less stats-focused and more-big picture perspective than usual, because like Valenti, I’ve got some things to get off my chest after attending Saturday’s game.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Explosiveness

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Much of the conversation following Saturday’s debacle has focused on the defense and Brian Van Gorder. So let’s dive in.

If we’re going to criticize Van Gorder, let’s get this out of the way first – he’s a generous guy – whatever you’re lacking for, he’s more than happy to provide. A Spartan offense that was among the least explosive in FBS last year, with just 16 plays of 30+ yards in 14 games? Take three! (Close to counting –were 28 and 23-yard gains, which both took place on critical third downs on the final possession of the game and iced any hope of a Notre Dame comeback).

The big-play habit has come back to bite the Irish again, and the torture comes in and new and ingenious ways like a move from the Saw franchise. Last year we had blown coverages and no one staying home against Boston College when they putting the bloody “running quarterback” into the game. This year brings us such acts as “in perfect position and turning an interception into a touchdown” and “taking horrible angles on a run up the middle and then quitting on the play”.

Since the ND fanbase collectively has taken out its shovels and begun digging Van Gorder’s grave, this is an appropriate game to write his epitaph from. It’s all of the same issues that have plagued the defense since he first stepped foot in South Bend.

  1. Allowing big plays: Last season’s defense rallied to finish 76th nationally in explosive plays allowed (per IsoPPP), which to be fair, bumps up to 55th with opponent adjustments. In 2014 the defense was 80th in FBS per IsoPPP+.  Currently 115th in Passing IsoPPP allowed, with no end in sight (rushing IsoPPP has somehow done ok, ranking 11th, but at the cost of the 98th worst success rate yielded on run plays).
  2. Aggression with little benefit: Allowing explosive plays can be a calculated gamble – you’re willing to give up a chunk play here and there because your benefits outweigh those risks. This hasn’t taken place in the last 2 and ¼ seasons. Turnovers forced have ranged from middling (2014) to poor (2015), and adjusted sack rate have peaked the last two years in the 70’s nationally. Tackles for a loss and deflected passes have been relatively rare. Yet a corresponding shift in scheme doesn’t seem to have ever taken place.
  3. Inability to stop the run, make adjustments: In Van Gorder’s first two seasons the Irish finished outside of the top 50 in Rushing S&P+, and this year doesn’t look like it will be the exception. The defense is 111th in success rate allowed on standard downs in 2016, and that’s been against three run-heavy teams. Adjustments to things that burned the Irish in the past, like tempo, have been poor. Even in-game, the Irish defense consistently struggled with R.J. Shelton’s motion across the formation on running play

In Chris Brown’s excellent book Smart Football, he wrote about Pete Carroll (I know, I know) speaking about his turnaround from failed head coach to successful college and now professional coach, with an emphasis on his defensive learning. “To be successful on defense, you need to develop a philosophy. If you don’t have a clear view of your philosophy, you will be floundering all over the place. If you win, it will be pure luck.”

It doesn’t feel like Brian Van Gorder has a clear view of his own philosophy, and the muddy perspective has been either ineffective or impossible to implement. Hopefully the next Notre Dame defensive coordinator Brian Kelly hires can bring that to the table.

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While took far too long, the downfield shots by DeShone Kizer and the Irish receivers paid off as they fought their way back in the game in the second half. There’s really a staggering amount of young receiving talent between Claypool, Stepherson, Sanders, and St. Brown, and Torii Hunter is no grizzled veteran as a junior. It’s a dynamic group that hasn’t even featured Javon McKinley, who most recruitniks thought would be the best of the bunch, and watching them is a nice antidote to the frustration that watching the defense brings.

Speaking of missing things, the once-explosive Notre Dame running game has been bottled up in 2016. The Irish were 8th nationally last season, led by Josh Adams, and are now 84th through three games. Tarean Folston simply isn’t that kind of runner, which doesn’t help, but the real culprit has been the offensive line. Opportunity rate, line yards per carry – all the stats we have to measure blocking success are down across the board, some dramatically so.

Efficiency

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While I should know better by now, I was surprised to see a lot of fretting on message boards and the like about the offense after this game. I think it’s a fair assessment that Kelly and the offensive staff lost the coaching battle to their defensive counterparts from East Lansing, but 28 points in this game is a solid effort, especially with poor special teams play that led to tough starting field position.

There were several head-scratching decision, which ranged from defensible (sticking to a stagnant run game) to the cowardly punt late. Earlier in the 4th quarter Kelly had so little confidence in the defense that he opted for a 2nd and 7 instead of 1st and 15 after a Michigan State illegal formation. Then with the game on the line, you trust that unit over the offense that had just scored the last three possessions? Or forget recent play, how about the unit that you know is just head and shoulders better?

Coaching aside though, I don’t understand the offensive worries or efforts to diminish the unit’s success so far. Yes, the drought in the second and third quarters was poor, but newsflash – great offenses don’t score every possession.

A very similar defense held a loaded Ohio State offense to 13 points in Columbus last season. Christian McCaffery and Stanford scored six points in a game last year against NORTHWESTERN (I realize making fun of a loss to Northwestern is hypocritical, but screw it). It happens, and the end wher. e the Irish scored three straight times when everyone in the stadium knew they were passing and they went ahead and did it anyway was very nice, and that’s also why they are the #6 offense per S&P+ in 2016.

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The Irish once again were pushed around on both lines, losing the leverage rate battle by a significant margin. The Irish had 8+ yards to go on 2/11 third downs, the Spartans on 8/18. Kizer and the offense performed admirably on those long passing downs, but defensively this allowed O’Connor and the Spartan offense to extend too many drives.

Returning to the defense, it’s been interesting to see debate on how much blame should be allocated to scheme versus talent. On one hand, there are certainly some clear personnel gaps that have root causes in recruiting misses, with safety and rush end as clear examples. On the other, even if we account for a disparity in offensive and defensive recruiting, a conservative estimate based on recruiting rankings would put this as a top-30ish defense, which it’s definitely not.

Using opponent-adjusted defensive rankings, here’s a few schools that have outperformed the Irish over the past two years (using opponent adjusted rankings, and please don’t come around here with any yards/points per game nonsense that don’t account for pace): Boise State, Utah State, Wisconsin, Missouri, Louisville, Penn State, Boston College, West Virginia, Minnesota, Utah, and Temple. At varying levels, those schools are doing more with far less talented players, and Notre Dame has to be approaching its floor.

In fact, while looking into this debate, I stumbled back on this article from Bill Connelly examining the links between recruiting and performance in specific areas. And it’s bad news – elite talent actually has been more closely correlated to success on the defensive side of the ball than offense, which makes the ND struggles even more inexplicable to me. And the pass rushing struggles? It looks like scheme may be significantly to blame there, as it’s among the least strongly correlated links between talent and performance.

Field Position

Average Starting Field Position:
Notre Dame: Irish 22
Michigan State: Spartan 29

The Irish special teams as a whole were brutal – a holding penalty taking away an electric CJ Sanders return, dumb personal fouls on a punt return, total confusion on Michigan State’s first point-after attempt, and the Boykin turnover when a punt bounced into his leg. About the only positive outcome was hopefully a confidence building game for Tyler Newsome, and that at least the Irish limited the Spartans from a big return.

Finishing Drives

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If you’re looking for a spot where the Irish have consistently been better in 2016, red zone scoring is it. Kizer led four more successful trips Saturday, but when only one of your first nine drives crosses the opponents’ 40-yard line, that’s an issue. The defense, as with every other area of the field, has struggled in the red zone, but did boost their numbers by forcing an O’Connor interception near the end zone.

Turnovers

The Daelin Hayes tip / Devin Studstill pick was a thing of beauty, back when it seemed like this would be a pleasant evening to watch the Irish play football. Do you remember that part? Then the Irish went three and out, made a nice stop defensively, then a terrible punt hit Miles Boykin and things escalated quickly (in a bad way).

All three turnovers were killers in that they killed Irish possessions after just a play. In game where the best hope was if the Irish offense had an advantage over the Spartan defense, you need as many possessions as possible to try to exert that advantage, and that stung badly.