Every year there are a handful of Heisman favorites at the quarterback position. Heading into 2016 we have Deshaun Watson as the heavy favorite with players like J.T. Barrett, Chad Kelly, and Josh Rosen climbing up Vegas boards.

Everybody does their homework on these high-profile quarterbacks but I’m interested in the other players lurking just beneath the surface who could surprise this year and become Heisman hopefuls. In order to bring some structure to this I’ve made a list based on 3 criteria:

Experience & Production- Basically, are you an entrenched starter, how much have you played in your career, and what kind of capabilities have you shown thus far?

Spotlight Factor- This is a mixture of playing for a program that historically has the ability to place a candidate in the consciousness of the voters as well as if the quarterback has a teammate who is good enough to grab attention away from him.

Schedule- Looking at their opponents how realistic is it that the quarterback can be playing big games in November because we know winning is a huge part of handing out this trophy.

Using a scale of 1 (not good) to 10 (great) these are the five hidden gem quarterbacks to win the 2016 Heisman Trophy:

Jake Browning, Washington
4 + 5 + 4 = 13 points

Big things are expected for this true sophomore after a really solid 2015 that saw Browning make 12 starts for the Huskies. The high school national record holder for passing touchdowns in a single season and career got off to a slow start last fall then finished with at least 200 yards through the air in his last 6 games.

His numbers will definitely have to take a big spike upwards from a year ago, though. His 63.1% accuracy and 8.0 yards per attempt could signal future greatness but he put up most of his big numbers against the weaker teams on Washington’s schedule while being pretty average against the better teams. For someone 6-2 and a shade over 200 pounds being able to run the ball better (35 yards in 2015) might be necessary to compete with the nation’s best.

A fellow true sophomore, running back Myles Gaskin, is also bound to hog the spotlight after gaining 1,302 yards and scoring 14 touchdowns last year. The Huskies’ schedule also does Browning no favors. A home opener against Rutgers is the most high-profile out of conference game, plus the major test of Arizona (road), Stanford, and Oregon (road) comes in consecutive weeks in before mid-October and the schedule down the stretch leaves the opportunity for some clunker games.

Lamar Jackson, Louisville
5 + 6 + 6 = 17 points

If you watched Louisville last year you might be scratching your head with this pick. For the majority of 2015 we saw Jackson running out there with his head cut off showing great running skills but miles away from a competent passer. Sometimes numbers don’t lie and Jackson couldn’t complete even 55% of his passes and finished with merely 12 passing touchdowns to 8 interceptions.

However, the recency bias is strong with this one and building up a lot of hype. It started with 226 rushing yards in a bowl victory over Texas A&M and continued to this year’s spring game where Jackson posted silly video game numbers: 24 of 29 for 519 yards, 8 touchdowns, and no turnovers. If ever there was a program using the spring game to ignite a Heisman campaign, well there you go.

With consistent progress as a passer he’s a threat to put up 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. Seeing as how he out-gained the next closest teammate by over 300 rushing yards it doesn’t appear he’ll be sharing any spotlight all that much.

Of course, Jackson will have to earn the Heisman hype with a trip to Clemson coming a couple weeks after hosting Florida State. He could be knocked out of the race rather early. There’s also a road game at Houston that could have some interesting Heisman implications.

Tanner Mangum, BYU
6 + 6 + 2 = 14 points

Another sophomore graces the list except Mangum is a post-Mission second-year player who will be turning 23 years old in early September. He’s no spring chicken.

Mangum announced himself to the world in style last year with the Hail Mary winner at Nebraska and went on to have a productive season with 3,377 passing yards and 23 touchdowns. His school has a decent history of creating Heisman hype and Mangum is unlikely to share the spotlight with anyone.

It might help matters that BYU is an independent, however, their schedule is so brutal that the Cougars might struggle to gain bowl eligibility. Therefore, Mangum isn’t likely to be a serious Heisman candidate without a sensational campaign. They face Arizona at the University of Phoenix Stadium, the Holy War at Utah in week two, host UCLA, head over to the East Coast to FedEx against West Virginia, home to Toledo, back east to Michigan State, hosting Mississippi State, and on the road to Boise State.

All of that before a bye week. Damn!

Anu Solomon, Arizona
7 + 4 + 4 = 15 points

Finally we reach someone with more than a year of experience. Solomon is entering his redshirt junior year and has been the starter at Arizona for the last two seasons. He did miss roughly 3 full games with injury last year which lowered his stock and has kept him off the radar this off-season.

Still, Solomon has been a very productive quarterback under Rich Rodriguez’ tutelage. Obviously with injury his total production was down in 2015 but he did increase his completions by 4.3%, raised his YPA by 1.1 yard, and his passer rating shot up 16.4 points. For someone with over 50 touchdowns and just 14 career interceptions Solomon could be ready to explode this fall.

I don’t see anyone on the roster grabbing much of the spotlight, but again, a poor schedule for a quarterback with a dark horse chance at a Heisman. As mentioned, they open against BYU (pitting Mangum vs. Solomon) and then have a 6-week stretch beginning in late September that features Washington, UCLA (road), Utah (road), USC, and Stanford.

That’s a brutal stretch combined with a horrid final 4 games that offers little visibility in November.

Greg Ward Jr., Houston
8 + 6 + 6 = 20 points

Ward could be the smallest Heisman quarterback winner in the modern era in terms of stature but he’s well positioned to win the award from this group. He led Houston to a massively successful 2015 season and when paired with the rising stock of head coach Tom Herman there’s a lot to like for this fall.

As a passer there’s room for more production. His 2,827 yards and 17 touchdowns won’t blow anyone away at first glance. Still, his 66.9% completion percentage has been steady throughout his career and his 8.1 YPA career mark is impressive.

Ward’s going to make the most noise as a runner, though. He’s coming off a 1,114-yard season with 21 touchdowns on the ground. So that’s 38 total touchdowns last year with only 6 interceptions. A couple of top running backs are gone as is receiver Demarcus Ayers who caught 97 passes last year. That could hurt Ward’s production but he’ll be the one big star on the team now.

The schedule offers a way to New York City starting with an opener at NRG Stadium against Heisman hopeful Baker Mayfield and the Oklahoma Sooners. Winning that head-to-head matchup could spark a major campaign. From there, the schedule is fairly favorable and there will be that late-season showdown against Louisville and Lamar Jackson, too.

*****

Interesting Additional Pick: Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina

Good enough to occasionally share reps with the productive Marquise Williams and easily won the job this spring after Williams graduated. Trubisky is in a friendly offensive system and put up some gaudy numbers last year: 555 passing yards, 85.1% accuracy, 11.8 yards per attempt, and 9 total touchdowns.

He’d be a big underdog pick for a reason, though. An opener against Georgia and FSU in week 5 could end the Heisman campaign rather early. Plus, he’s not that proven and if Marquise Williams  couldn’t sniff the Heisman with 4,020 total yards and 37 touchdowns on an 11-win UNC team how much better would Trubisky have to be?

Absolutely Stay Away Pick: Josh Dobbs, Tennessee

Dobbs is the face of a greater increased hype and expectations from his team as a whole and hasn’t really earned the Heisman love quite yet. Recent Vegas odds have him as the 6th most likely to take home the trophy. For one, the schedule sets up terribly. A string of Florida, Georgia, A&M, and Alabama in consecutive weeks will likely bring a couple losses and the final month features literally zero high-profile games.

You should stay away from +2500 odds for someone who needs to roughly double his past production and push the Volunteers into the nation’s elite. His running skills offer some hope (671 yards, 11 TD last year) but 59.6% accuracy with 6.7 YPA and a career touchdown to interception ratio under 2:1 doesn’t inspire much confidence.