Five Wide Fullbacks returns as Notre Dame comes off a bye week and prepares to re-start the season this Saturday against Pittsburgh in South Bend. On this week’s edition of 5WF we are tackling bowl projections, an OC search, the Heisman race, coaching hot seats, and the top position to grab in the portal that isn’t a quarterback.
1) Notre Dame’s win over USC recast the bowl projections for the Irish as they jumped back up in the rankings again. How far away is a major bowl game appearance and what are the options looking like if the team doesn’t achieve that goal?
Right now, we’re going to need some help in the ACC with Florida State undefeated and Louisville aiming for a strong finish with that win over the Irish. Although, North Carolina ejecting themselves potentially with the loss to Virginia certainly helps the Notre Dame cause.
I’ve compiled some recent bowl projections from around the internet and they include:
Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Kansas State
Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Kansas
Holiday Bowl vs. Oregon State
Holiday Bowl vs. Utah
Gator Bowl vs. Florida
ReliaQuest Bowl vs. LSU
Peach Bowl vs. Oklahoma
The Pop-Tarts Bowl is the old Blockbuster/Champs Sports/Russell Athletic/Camping World Bowl held in Orlando, Florida and Notre Dame has played in this game twice (2011, 2019) in recent years. Fans know the Holiday Bowl (San Diego) and Gator Bowl (Jacksonville) well. Notre Dame has never played in the former and has been in the Gator Bowl 4 times, including just last year.
It may be time for a bowl game in a baseball stadium.
The ReliaQuest Bowl is the former Outback Bowl held in Tampa, and Notre Dame has never played in that either. A matchup against LSU would certainly bring a lot of eyeballs to that game. Notre Dame is positioned pretty well to back door into a major bowl (Peach Bowl vs. Oklahoma is a bold projection right now!) although odds are more likely this is a 2019 situation where the Irish get left out after the conference championship round.
2) Based on the play to date, how many players are you inviting to the Heisman and how would you rank them in order of winning at the end of the year?
I’ve got 4 invites right now and I think it’s fairly straightforward and easy: Michael Penix, Jr., Dillon Gabriel, Jordan Travis, and Marvin Harrison, Jr. would be heading to New York City.
Out west, Bo Nix can play his way back into an invite. With his ankle injury likely keeping him out for a while the Brock Bowers Heisman candidacy is over. Quinn Ewers can maybe backdoor his way into this thing. J.J. McCarthy needs to sit at the adult table and play some actual good teams before getting consideration–a quarterback who doesn’t run much and barely throws for 200 yards per game isn’t Heisman potential, I’m sorry.
The Heisman for Penix took a hit this past weekend but these quarterbacks (unlike Drake Maye!) just need to keep winning and stay undefeated. The same goes for Harrison, Jr. at Ohio State. This doesn’t feel like a Heisman season from a receiver at all (he was held in check against Notre Dame) still if the Buckeyes are undefeated, beat Michigan, and Harrison, Jr. plays well he’ll probably be right there in the voting.
If they voted right now it might be Gabriel’s award to lose with a super close vote.
3) There will be a lot of discussion about Notre Dame possibly adding another quarterback from the Transfer Portal this off-season. Setting that aside, which position do you project as the biggest need from the transfer ranks heading into 2024 for the Irish?
I’m looking at this from the perspective of Notre Dame being able to bring in a no-doubt starter who has some game-changing ability. I’ve zeroed in on a handful of positions:
SDE – JJB is gone after this year and backup NaNa Osafo-Mensah would be coming back for a 6th season if he chooses to return or is invited back. There’s some talent coming up that is promising but replacing your two-deep is a bit scary if that happens.
NG – This is really about whether Howard Cross turns pro or not. If he’s gone this is a worry.
S – Things are frightening if Xavier Watts continues on his trajectory and decides to make it in the NFL after 2023. This would be a position on the roster desperately in need of talent and depth.
WR – Breaking in a new quarterback, I would take an unquestioned no. 1 receiver for 2024 over any other position, without hesitation.
4) In the event that Marcus Freeman moves on from current offensive coordinator Gerad Parker who are 3 names across the country that you feel should be considered as a replacement?
I’ve crunched some numbers and focused on these 3 coordinators during the bye week:
Brian Lindgren – Oregon State
Lindgren joined Jonathan Smith at Oregon State after being OC at Colorado (where he coordinated that one 10-win season for the Buffs back in 2016) and he’s put together an impressive resume in Corvalis. When he arrived, the Beavers were 122nd in FEI offense, dead last among Power 5 teams. They immediately improved to 52nd in 2018, have averaged 33nd over the last 6 years, culminating in the 9th FEI offense in 2023 while resurrecting DJ Uiagalelei’s quarterback career.
Lindgren is a DGT™ coordinator right now.
Andy Kotelnicki – Kansas
Lance Leipold hired Kotelnicki for his last 2 years at Wisconsin-Whitewater and they’ve been together ever since. I believe Kotelnicki’s name was tossed around last year for Notre Dame but no serious inquiries were made. He’s shown steady success both at Buffalo and now at Kansas which is nice. This year may be the best effort to date as Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels has missed 4 games and still Kansas is 7th nationally in yards per play (tops in the Big 12) and this offense is 13th in FEI heading into the weekend. Would he leave his long-term relationship with Leipold?
Sean Lewis – Colorado
Notre Dame was reportedly interested this past off-season before Lewis left his head coaching job at Kent State to be with Coach Prime. Things started out on fire this year but the Buffaloes have come back down to earth a little bit since. Still, the offense at Colorado is 1.1 YPP better than last year and it’s obvious Lewis has a lot of talent. They were last among Power 5 programs at 126th in FEI offense in 2022 and are now sitting at 35th nationally. Would he be willing to get out of the Coach Prime orbit this early?
5) Halfway through this season which Power 5 jobs do you anticipate opening up soon and how will the merry-go-round of movement change the coaching landscape?
Prior to this past weekend I was going to mention Mario Cristobal (Miami) and Dave Aranda (Baylor) in this section. Cristobal saved things a bit with an overtime win over Clemson and Aranda’s Bears’ held off Cincinnati to prevent a 3-5 record. Just like the off-season, I’d add Justin Wilcox at California who, if they don’t beat Stanford, could finish 3-9 this year. However, I don’t think enough people at Cal care to pay 4 years of his contract buyout.
I don’t think there are a ton of jobs that will come open. Syracuse has looked extremely uncompetitive over their last 3 games (-88 point differential) but the Orange’s schedule lightens up, they’ll probably get a bowl game, and surely Dino Babers will return.
Neal Brown at West Virginia was feeling the heat this off-season but the Mountaineers are 4-3 and he’s probably safe. Much to our chagrin, there aren’t many options for high profile flameouts right now.
Not a lot of smiling for Allen this year.
So, we turn our attention to the Big Ten where there are interim positions at Michigan State and Northwestern, plus the future of Tom Allen at Indiana is cloudy. None of these coaches wind their contracts down, and yup you know it, Allen is still under terms through 2027. Indiana owes Allen 100% of his contract unless he’s fired after December 1, 2024 so expect him to come back next year. But boy, they’ve been bad and the Hoosiers are perhaps the worst Power 5 team in the country.
I wouldn’t expect a ton of coaching movement this off-season.
Lindgren would be a wetdream for some ND fans considering his approach and man is it fun to watch the beavs buzzsaw people
I’m sure you guys have talked about it but man it is astounding just how much of a goober Pat Narduzzi is as a HC
Goober is right.
Good researching on the OC front. Is there even a quasi-plausible case that any of those three would not be a clear and immediate upgrade over Parker? Honestly I’m struggling to see what the affirmative case for Parker would be, other than “he’s here and hiring a new OC costs money.”
The only other case for him that I can think of (but don’t support) is “he’s new and still learning. We won X games with him and he
can’t get any worsewill probably improve.”It’s too bad demotions don’t really happen. I’d like to keep him as TE coach. He’s done a good job with Evans, Staes, and Flanagan. His TE recruiting still needs to improve a bit, but with the Flanigan commitment and if we are able to flip Carter, then that would be excellent.
I mean, TE coach at Notre Dame is not a bad gig to have. Freeman might be able to sell him on that. Other OC opportunities will come his way, just not here.
I just don’t think we can afford to have a “he’s new and still learning” HC and OC at the same time.
Oh yeah. It’s not a good argument. But I imagine someone will make it.
As below, demotions rarely happen, but we can dream, because with Flanigan, we’re still killing it at TE recruiting. Hopefully Parker would accept a demotion back to TE coach, with his plan to make a jump to OC somewhere else in a couple of years.
While I wouldn’t agree, but I could listen to the argument that goes:
-Kotelnicki has never done anything without Lance Leipold running things
-Lewis is relying on a style (50 passes per game with a scrambling QB) that can’t work in the nasty weather of South Bend
-Parker’s offense was Top 20 in SP+ prior to his only 2 good WRs (Greathouse and Thomas) getting injured
I would have a pretty tough time buying an argument against Lindgren though.
Even now the offense is 22nd in FEI and 18th in F+ (synthesis of FEI and SP+) so similar rank in SP+. Parker isnt terrible, but he needs more experience…and i’m not certain i would back him continuing to get that experience at ND
On OC — I said before the season that Freeman should take another run at an experienced OC after the season and I still very much think that. Experience would be my top priority in this hire. Lindgren has been an OC since 2009, Kotelnicki since 2006, Lewis since 2015. Any of them would be fine by me.
On open jobs — I’m starting to think Michigan is going to be open. The evidence against them is mounting and it is bad. I think Harbaugh is going to be looking at a long suspension and a show-cause, which will probably push him out to the NFL.
I agree. Freeman’s hand was forced when Tommy left late in the cycle and the Utah OC situation “happened”. He made an internal hire to steady the ship figuring Hartman would cover up minor deficiencies and they could reevaluate this off-season. He seems like he’ll be more aggressive than his predecessor at upgrading the coaching staff when possible.
Would be absolutely hilarious if he wins the Big Ten East, gets a long suspension, and then him, Lincoln Riley, Ryan Day, and Brian Kelly are competing for a single NFL head coaching position.
Can a guy dream that we can anticipate a coaching change in Ann Arbor? Would be a very Harbaugh move to jump ship now.
Harbaugh to the Bears you’re hearing it here first.
We’re due for an LSU bowl game
It would be very funny to see a lower-tier bowl out-rate all the non-playoff major bowls.
“I wouldn’t expect a ton of coaching movement.” Probably just guaranteed a wild November/December
Lincoln Riley, Harbaugh, maybe even Ryan Day going pro all seem plausible and all would start major domino effects.
Are there better pace of play stats out there than plays per game?
Based on plays per game stats we’ve been 89th/131 last year and 123rd/133 this year. Obviously opponent and game situation adjusts how you want to call your offense, but I’m generally of the opinion that the better team should want to speed up the game, and based on plays per game the Irish seem to be incredibly slow, despite entering 10.5 ish games a year as the more talented team.
You could take TOP/plays. That would give you a sense of how fast we are running plays. But that sounds like a lot of work. I have heard announcers mention this for teams that run up-tempo, but never seen a site that has this listed.