In the latest edition of Five Wide Fullbacks we are covering angry fans, a key defensive injury, Clark Lea’s future, Kyle Hamilton’s iconic status, and the worrisome quarterback regression under Brian Kelly’s tutelage.
1) Why is everyone so angry with a 3-1 start when Notre Dame covered each game and a loss to Georgia always was the mostly likely defeat?
The easy answer is that college football fans are not prone to reason and rational debate. Specifically for Notre Dame in 2019 a lot of this has to do with Brian Kelly being in his 10th year. There’s a very vocal minority that is tired of Kelly and I do think there’s a slow drip of others who are waiting for things to change for the better.
The problem is “better” in this instance is breaking through to the elite which would mean beating Georgia this year and in general doing better than 10+ wins. It’s a frustrating spot and I totally get wanting more when you get this close.
At the same time, if the Irish can take care of business through the rest of this regular season (something I’m still skeptical of right now, for what it’s worth) it would be a 33-5 (.868) run over the past 3 years. I guess someone could resort to shaming the schedule strength in order to throw cold water on that party but that feels like a small historical note and not something you’d lead off with as a fan.
In short, I get being a little frustrated yet there’s still plenty to enjoy in the moment.
2) How does the season-ending injury to Daelin Hayes re-cast the expectations for the 2020 defense?
This is a tough one because of Hayes’ injury history with his shoulder knowing there’s no guarantee–even with 11 months to rehab–that he’ll be healthy or ready to go for 2020. It feels like there’s close to 50/50 odds he’s medically retired by next summer than Hayes roaring back as a starter during a graduate season.
So, I do think at the moment it is bad news for 2020 as it appears Jamir Jones will be pulled off the redshirt plan for this season. Seeing as how Jones looked pretty impressive against Virginia it would’ve been nice to have him come back instead of Hayes and his injury concerns.
The only positive take away for now is that the likes of Ade Ogundeji, Justin Ademilola, and maybe Isaiah Foskey (deeper into the season) get more seasoning they otherwise wouldn’t absorb before moving into larger roles in 2020. There’s definitely a route where this injury helps boost player development and improves next year’s squad.
3) Is it a good idea, great idea, or bad idea to begin spinning the wheels on talk about a head coach-in-waiting situation at Notre Dame for defensive coordinator Clark Lea?
Beware! Beware!
The last person to hold this coveted (internet) title at Notre Dame is now the offensive coordinator at Utah State after running Western Kentucky into the ground within 2 seasons. We can also look back to late 2012 and see this idea of Bob Diaco being next in line popping up and now he is the defensive coordinator at Louisiana Tech after a failed head coaching stint.
I’m not saying Clark Lea isn’t the most promising assistant of the Kelly era or that he isn’t the one who would seem most comfortable in his skin coaching the Irish. I’m also not saying he hasn’t been the most productive young assistant of the Kelly era, either. All signs point him being special.
We just need more time. We need to see him dealing with the pressures of recruiting for a couple more cycles. We need to see him in the spotlight more from a media perspective. We need to see what the defense looks like when he fully has ‘his guys’ on the field. Frankly, he just needs more exposure and scrutiny overall, for example, how he handles a bunch of injuries or rebounds from a terrible performance.
I generally don’t like the head coach-in-waiting title because it’s fraught with so many landmines. But I have warmed up to Notre Dame promoting from within a lot more than I would’ve 10 years ago. I get the feeling if Clark Lea thinks it’s truly a possibility he will stick around and not go be the head coach at Akron just to get seasoning.
4) Throw the hyperbole out the window. Does Kyle Hamilton have a chance to be the best safety in school history?
It’s really not that silly to consider early in Hamilton’s career that he has a legit shot at being the best at his position. Remember, during the Notre Dame Hall of Fame Pyramid the safety position was by far the weakest position in the program featuring the overall seeded players:
#175 Tom Zbikowski
#154 Tom Schoen
#122 Nick Rassas
#90 Harrison Smith
#87 Jeff Burris
#85 Dave Duerson
Granted, this doesn’t include anyone from the single-platoon era so we’re only looking at “pure” safeties over the last half century or so. Still, it averages out to roughly one Hall of Fame worthy safety per decade and it looks like we’re due!
One might argue we’d need to see some special teams return work or maybe some snaps on offense (the staff was reportedly thinking about this during fall camp) to really push forward as the best ever. But what if Hamilton intercepts 20 passes in his career?
5) Are we seeing the often-cited and hotly debated Brian Kelly quarterback regression from Ian Book in his second year starting?
It’s too early to make a judgement yet keeping in mind a few things:
Progress is not linear. The college game is way too messy for this to be the case. One could argue the competition is more even but we usually don’t hold professional quarterbacks devoting their entire lives to the NFL to the same standard of linear progression. If we did, we’d seriously consider Jameis Winston being better than Tom Brady following this past weekend.
There will be many ups and downs for the Notre Dame quarterback no matter who that player will be now and in the future.
It’s also important to note that Book isn’t that experienced in the larger picture of quarterbacks in Notre Dame history. To compare him at this point in numbers of starts Brady Quinn had just been blown out against Purdue in 2004 (26 of 46 for 432 yards and 1 touchdown, truly one of the greatest meaningless stat lines in school history) in his 14th career start.
Of course, Quinn got much better and made a big jump in 2005 but then we kind of white-wash things from 2006 at the same time. We forget the struggles in the opener barely beating Georgia Tech, we try to blame someone else for a horrific performance against Michigan, we remember the comeback throw against UCLA but not the frustrating 4 for 19 third down production, and we normally don’t talk about Quinn’s worst game as an upperclassman being the final one in an Irish uniform.
In the moment, we have a strong tendency to only point out the bad and forget the good.
This is even more true for Ian Book who–due to his size, recruiting ranking, and overall skill set–doesn’t endear himself to everyone as we usually have an itch to see someone else play quarterback with a higher ceiling.
So far this year I’ve given Book grades of D, B, B, and D through 4 games and I’ll admit I’m probably a tough grader because I’m hoping he makes a big jump this year. The deep ball is better, he’s been smarter as a runner, and he’s protecting the ball really well. He’s also looked more uncomfortable in the pocket and less sure of himself throwing when we believe he should be much better in these areas.
I tend to think there’s a lot of truth to the fact that Book isn’t likely to get a whole lot better and that will be more frustrating than the possibility that he’s actually worse than 2018. He just played arguably no worse than his 2nd best game of his career considering the circumstances at Georgia two weeks ago and that has to mean something for his improvement. It’s just, are we going to see 3 or 4 performances in the A grade range this year if we accept there might be a few more C or D grades?
I’d probably buy Book being the type of player who always had a high floor, not a real high ceiling, and he’s struggling while being asked to be a bigger playmaker this year with, on the whole, a weaker supporting cast so far thanks largely to injuries.
I wonder what we will think if Book and the Irish keep winning. I have a feeling this whole quarterback regression topic is going to be awfully fascinating if it’s another 10-win season and Book’s numbers are pretty identical to 2018. That might give credence to the ‘quarterback regression’ largely being complaints about a lack of improvement or taking the next step into the top-tier quarterbacks.
Book has made some strange decisions this season. Running out of bounds for a loss when he could simply throw the ball away. Having the ball snapped when it’s clear a teammate isn’t set. Kelly pointing his finger at Book for many of the Georgia fast starts. To name some.
His accuracy has been off. He doesn’t seem to be reading coverages as well. He seems antsy in the pocket. Though he is not the most physically gifted QB, the problems seem to stem from the neck up. It’s perplexing.
No, the back up is not a better option.
As Kelly keeps saying in his pressers, focus, concentration, and attention to detail are lacking more or less across the board on the offensive side of the ball. Can explain recurrent mistakes like Book missing open men, bailing on good pockets, poor mechanics causing missed throws, Oline multiple procedural penalties and missed blocks, WRs missing blocks, running routes short of the sticks, dropping passes, etc. If they can get that straightened, which does seem a mental thing more than anything else, we could see a dramatic uptick in offensive efficiency and effectiveness. Whether that’s actually possible remains an open question.
“Kelly pointing his finger at Book for many of the Georgia fast starts. To name some.”
That’s not what happened. Kelly took all the responsibility on himself for allowing it to happen/team not ready for it. Some of Kelly’s comments seemed damning towards Book that they had gone over it in the walk through but it still wasn’t right during show time, that doesn’t reflect well on Book, but Kelly went out of his way to put the blame on himself completely.
I def agree with you though that Book not reading the field well enough or showing much progress in expanding his vision and ability to see plays develop is pretty disappointing. Kelly keeps saying they’ll work on his decisiveness an get him improving but he seems to continually struggle with TE’s up the seam or finding open WR’s on easy routes that he should be seeing at this point, you would hope.
That’s something I’ve actually noticed this year. I think Kelly has gone out of his way to take blame on himself, even if it’s ultimately a player’s or assistant’s fault. This is miles better than in past when he would stubbornly say things like “we had a perfect play call selected. sometimes players just have to execute”. Even if that’s true, you don’t want to see your head coach throwing his players under the bus.
Yes, Kelly said that the false starts were all his fault while also saying Book, inexplicably, went back to the usual hand clapping they use. Which was not what he was supposed to do.
There are a lot of things that we just don’t know. I agree with the high floor/low ceiling point. That would certainly be the case from the recruiting rankings, but he had an offer from Mike Leach and he knows a thing or two about QBs. He does make some odd decisions, the running OOB for the 5 yard loss when he could throw it away. Perhaps he thought he was further upfield. On the clap/silent count issue, I can’t believe he got that wrong. That is so easily corrected, even during a game. I am not sure if he is reading coverages as well or not. The game plan may be more complicated for him this year, and he may not be fuly comfortable with that. It could be that is effecting the coverages. The WRs not getting separation could be effecting his reads. I think he tends not to have a lot of trust in his OL, receivers and, to some extent, himself. He is skittish in the pocket for fear that coverage will break down. He tries to get out and away from the pocket for more time because he doesn’t trust a receiver to get open quickly. To step up in the pocket, you generally won’t get as much time as if you get out of the pocket (assuming you can). Stepping up requires a quick decision and trust that a receiver will be open, or about to be, or that you can successfully put it in a tight window. He seems to lack that anticipation/trust/vision. I am not sure what the right word would be. Some of it is inexperience. Some of it may be that he is trying to do too much. No running game, everything feels on his shoulders. Some of it may be he is chasing statisitics. He is getting his 60+ completion percentage, but it feels fake. He doesn’t take any chances to get there. It felt like Claussen and Quinn took chances to get to those numbers. Same with Kizer. Maybe the play calls limit him. I realize those last two points are contradictory, but either or both could be right. Statistically, he has not regressed, and he really didn’t pad his stats against NM so they are pretty accurate. Personally, I think the feeling of regression is more the lack of hoped for progress. He may have progressed some to a sophisiticated eye, but to a dumb fan like me, he seeems about the same as last year. The difference is last year as a game manager with Dexter and Jafar, there was a possibility for break-out runs, which gave more room in the passing game and took pressure off of him. That my contribute to the eyeball regression, or highlight the lack of progress. I like Book. He is keeping Jurkovec on the bench for a reason. He is not a Top 10 QB, and to think he would be was kind of wishful thinking. If you gave… Read more »
I had paragraph breaks in there, but they disappeared on posting. Sorry….
You just have to click ‘read more’ and the paragraphs will break up.
I’m with you. Dex and Boykin were much bigger losses for the offense than I think we realized they would be. Boykin and Book had a crazy good connection; those back shoulder fades were deadly last year and he hasn’t been able to establish anything quite like that with Claypool (although the Kmet connection is promising). Lack of a serious big play threat in the backfield puts more pressure on Book as well.
Sometimes it is nice to see an outsider’s perspective. Here are some kind words about coach BK and his potential to reach his fifth 10 win season (from SI’s Albert Breer and an unnamed scout):
https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/10/01/six-from-saturday-alabama-receivers-devonta-smith
“That might give credence to the ‘quarterback regression’ largely being complaints about a lack of improvement or taking the next step into the top-tier quarterbacks.”
Well put. Also good thing Kelly didn’t somehow magically get the Clemson job 6 months ago or people would be pointing towards Trevor Lawrence’s 2019 as more evidence of second year players struggling. Sometimes it’s just hard to play to a super high level for players that are 18-22 years old. They’re inconsistent and imperfect! (Except, apparently, if you go to OU).
Book is about the same as he was last year, but not quite. ESPN QBR is 151.9 last year, 154.1 this year so far. YPA 8.4->8.3. Completion % is down significantly 68->63. He also has taken 8 sacks in 4 games this year, compared to 18 in 13 last year. Some of that can be on OL, but as we’ve seen and discussed here before, quite a few of those are his own fault for spinning into rushers, leaving the pocket early, and intentionally grounding.
I love Clark Lea. Love love love him.
But I would worry about him as a first time head coach from one really simple perspective – we have no idea how well he would recruit / assemble a strong recruiting operation, which is probably the single most important input as to whether or not ND can get to the next level. He does a lot of other things well, and feels like a great cultural fit, but that piece to me is a big red flag.
Now, recruiting is obviously not everything – USC and FSU right now are evidence of that – but I think especially coming out of a BK era that as we zoom out and exit it will look like stable, sustained improvement compared to the previous three head coaches it’s a good time to swing for the fences and heavily weight proven recruiting ability, then the other factors like player development, program management, scheme, etc. And who knows, maybe by the time the job opens they have enough data that Lea is still the best option using that type of decision criteria? But it’d be the single biggest thing I’d look for him to prove if/when a transition plan or discussion came up.
I largely agree. Who that ‘swing for the fences’ candidate might be has me unsure.
I think that Urban Meyer’s career trajectory, and to a lesser extent Saban, are the exceptions that prove the rule as regards the hot young star being ready to take over a HC job and succeed at a high level. How many busts have there been from either exciting young assistants or HCs “doing good things” at smaller programs? In just the past ten years, I can think of a lot – Scott Frost, Charlie Strong (twice), Al Golden, Willie Taggart, Bill O’Brien, Rich Rodriguez, Jim Harbaugh . . . Certainly people who have been recruited from within have failed spectacularly as well, but at the very least it provides some consistency in culture and staff. Ultimately, nobody is willing to be patient anymore for a coach to develop a program, and so you get what we had at ND before Kelly, and what lots of other schools have struggled with – new coach, new staff, new philosophy, culture, etc., every 2-4 years. I think Clark Lea is equally likely to be successful as someone like Matt Campbell or PJ Fleck. I guess we’ll just wait and see, and hope we don’t lose him in the off season.
The Vandy job opening up is the one I worry most about. I don’t think Lea’s leaving ND to go be the HC at a G5 school like previous coordinators have done. But if Vandy comes calling, he might not be able to say no. Otherwise ND seems like a good fit for him in his career right now.
#175 Tom Zbikowski
Eric wrote all 1,500 words here just to bring back the summer Zibby disrespect.
🙂
Interesting statistics about Book from cfbstats:
The single greatest area of fall off for him this year has been on 3rd downs. Last year he was 65.9% on 3rd downs overall, including 84% on 3rd and medium (4-6 yds), and 66% on 3rd and 7-9. This year he is all the way down to 52% on 3rd down, 57% on 4-6 and 42% on 7-9. This obviously correlates with our other concerning statistic for the first third of the year, 3rd down conversion rate. Our conversion rate is down from 43% last year to 32% so far this year. That’s good for 114th in the country this year, and also the worst number of the Kelly era by a lot (previous record holder 38% for the year in 2010. 2016 season we made 40%)
The question is, is that all on Book? Is it scheme, playcalling, focus/concentration across the whole offense? How can this be cleaned up?
I think it’s a combo of small sample sizes, regression, and execution and scheme. We’ve had less than 10 of those situations (3rd and 4-6, 3rd and 7-9) this season, so a good deal of randomness is in there. To go 1 for 10 on 3rd downs versus New Mexico was fluky and didn’t really make a difference. And we’ve played 2 of the top 3 defenses in four games, as opposed to a pretty easy slate of defenses for Book last year between Wake, VT, NW, Syracuse, Stanford, and USC in the regular season.
Looking back to pair completion % with success rate, last year if you exclude garbage time I have Book converting on 17/24 3rd downs between 4-6. That’s insane and probably not repeatable! By same criteria he was 8/19 on 3rd and 7-9, which is well above average too and notably five of those 8 successes were to his security blanket in Boykin.
Agreed re: small sample size. However, overall 3rd down conversion rate is still surprisingly low. This unfortunately plays into inefficiency of the offense and difficulty stringing together drives, which I think is something we would be able to agree we have seen with our eyes this year. In other small sample size news, though, we seem to be getting better at short yardage situations!
The inability to string drives together is also more noticeable because of the lack of explosive plays. If you exlcude New Mexico, I think the only rushing ones are Book’s opening scramble against Louisville and the ones all in that last drive against Virginia by TJJ. Admittedly, I am not sure what the cut-off is, but if you put it at 15-20, I am hard pressed to think of others.
We have had a couple of long passes, but again outside of NM, they are precious few.
The ability to explode also forces the defense to cover more of the field, which makes it easier to convert tose 3rd downs.
Miles Boykin. I’d love to see how many of those 3rd down throws went to him last year, because it felt like it was at least 50%. You lose a 3rd round WR and replace him with Lawrence Keys, you’re bound to see a dropoff.
I think underrated in Book’s seemingly lack of getting better is that the skill position players are not that great (the loss of Dexter Williams looms large) and that Boykin is perhaps a much bigger loss than anticipated. QBs need good players around them.
Yes, I think those contribute greatly to the so-called regression of Book. Especially with Kmet missing for awhile too. And I’ve never seen an Oline with as many dumb penalties as we have this year. I think the jury is out whether Young and Armstrong will be difference makers, although hopefully Fink moves back to slot and wakes up.
Book needs a better supporting cast. At any of the current top ranked schools, say top five, he’d be viewed very differently I think. Trouble is he wouldn’t have beaten out their current starting QBs.
Re Eric’s first topic, getting to true elite, the answer is very simple. We need the elite QB, RB, and receivers that Bama, Clemson, tOSU, Oklahoma, Georgia get. Guys of that caliber, at those positions, are going to play Sundays with big bucks, and don’t want to risk it with the hassle of being a student athlete at ND. And those schools get the whole enchilada— not just one of those positions, but all of them, simultaneously. Not gonna happen here IMO. I don’t care who the coach is, until proven wrong.
Completely agree. The big thing that stands out when talking about skill players at ND is that they’re just not in the same caliber as the elite programs. Guys who we talk about with reverence and awe – “Man, we really miss that guy!” “Can you imagine if he’d stayed one more year?” – have largely been busts in the league. Will Fuller – our last 1st round offensive skill player – is still playing and is decent but not hugely impressive. Golden Tate (2nd round) has had probably the best career of any non-TE offensive skill player. Other guys like Boykin, CJ Prosise, etc will probably have nice little 5-6 year careers with a few teams after being drafted 2nd/3rd round. Dexter and Josh Adams (6th round and UDFA) have barely made a dent in the pros, and Adams is currently relegated to a practice squad. The last ND quarterback to have a significant career in the pros was – who? Rick Mirer? There hasn’t really been one in a very long time.
We get great talent on Oline, as demonstrated by our alumni success there. We’ve had some pretty decent success getting defensive guys to the pros lately (loved seeing Jaylon get that huge sack in the Sunday night game!). Lots of great success with TEs, obviously. But when it comes to QB, RB, WR, we are sorely lacking, and even our good players, the type of which we probably don’t have on this year’s team, are not the type who go on to be good enough for successful NFL careers.
1) ‘Everyone is angry about a 3-1 start’ I think is a bit of an exaggeration of a warranted criticism . I think there is general frustration with the lack of a consistently potent offense, particularly in the context of a coach that came with the MO as an offensive guru, in the 10th year of his tenure. It has been an exciting year so far and fun to watch but nothing wrong with asking that question.
2)-
3) Clark does not strike me as a head coach at a major D-1 school type. Which is weird because he is a smart guy and a brilliant coach but does he have the ability to be the CEO type on the sideline? Do you think he can make-up recruiting ground against schools in the region like OSU or Penn State?
4)-
5) I think you framed the argument a little disingenuously. Using Quinn as an example and a direct comparison, his last year particularly, as an example of how our biases with who we consider a good QB and who are pre-disposed to thinking is maybe just ‘average’ ultimately creates an illusion of regression, does not really describe the ‘regression’ speak. I think it’s merely acknowledging that it appears, for some reason, that the ‘2nd year’ of a Kelly QB has a drop in production. But of course, how does one even go about quantifying that given all the variables including but not limited to: they are all different persons/personalities; different schedules; different weapons; different OCs; different QB coaches; maybe they regressed because they weren’t that good to begin with and it’s merely a regression to the mean; how does one determine progression/regression; and who really gives a shit since it’s just a game and these are just kids and there is way more important things in life?
I for one like Book and-subjectively- I think he’s been not too bad. Is Kelly chronically bad at developing QBs (save Rees but Rees had no where to go but up) and Book is the latest victim? IDK. Maybe. Maybe not. It’s probably just typical angry fan speak but I don’t mind asking the question.
1) Of course, not everyone is upset. That wasn’t meant to be literal. The whole ‘offensive guru’ thing is such a 2011 argument that died a long time ago. I don’t know why people would keep expecting something so drastically different in year 10. Nor, why some people–and perhaps many of these same people are the ones a little too grumpy at the moment–were claiming this would be a record-setting offense in 2019.
3) We just need to learn more about him. It’s far too early to say he can’t or won’t be a major D-1 coach.
5) I’ve re-read this a bunch of times and besides asking some questions that I think we’re all asking I can’t figure out what you’re meaning to say, especially framing the argument disingenuously.
It just seems that if we’re silly to expect anything different in year 10 from an offensive standpoint then wouldn’t we be silly to expect anything different from from a 2nd year starter at QB during the same time frame? At least that’s the line of thinking you’re implying, right?
And yes the part 5 was just of series of questions and I apologize for the rambles.
But look, it’s ok to blame Kelly for something. RIght?– it doesn’t mean you’ve turned into NDnation!
And for the record, I’m very happy with this season and hope my comment did reflect a malcontent, angry fan. 11-1 would be an awesome year and would be an unprecedented run in a ND history perspective—and pretty good for anyone not named bama or OSU.
“save Rees but Rees had no where to go but up”
That was harsh. Im sorry. He had some clutch moments, honestly! Nice kid too- though I have it on good authority he’s a pompous a$$hole w/ a well connected pops.
which now that he’s an adult making good money and not a student-athlete, I can finally get that highly guarded secret off my chest.
Tommy Rees was a more highly rated recruit than Ian Book.
to me, Rees and Book are fairly similar. Both were mid-level recruits. I will take you at your word that Rees was more hihgly rated, but as I recall, he had no offers when Weis offered him late. We flipped Book from Washington State at Sanford’s request.
That aside. Neither has a particularly strong arm. Book is a much better runner. Rees forced balls into places he probably shouldn’t have, but he was decisive with the ball. In that situation, Book is more likely to run because he can. If we accept the arm strength issue, and in all honesty the arm strength is adequate, if Rees could teach Book to be decisive, we wouldn’t be arguing over regression/lack of progression/quality of supporting cast. There would be progress and the supporting cast, while not elite, would look better than it does.