We’re back in the football mindset opening up the 2021 campaign and heading back to Tallahassee for the first time since *that flag* denied Notre Dame a justified win over then No. 2 Florida State. Since then, Notre Dame has taken both of the meetings at home by a combined score of 84-39, although the Seminoles showed some surprising spine last year leading 17-14 after the 1st quarter before being out-scored 28-9 thereafter.

Mike Norvell is continuing the rebuilding process as he enters his 2nd season with Florida State prior to 4 years with the Memphis Tigers. Still just 39 years old, Norvell took over a Noles program in shambles having lost 20 games across 3 seasons (in a very friendly ACC, no less!) and beset by common problems for reeling teams: Weak line play, poor depth exacerbated by transfers, cratered recruiting, and a general lack of belief in the direction of the coaching staff after the shambolic Willie Taggart era.

Notre Dame (-7.5) at FSU

Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, Florida
Date: Sunday, September 5, 2021
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: ABC

Florida State is hoping a relatively drama-free off-season coming off the weird transitional Covid campaign with more program consistency and a healthy amount of incoming transfers will help right the ship. Can they do it quickly? The Seminoles have been included on the occasional “teams that could surprise” lists as we’ve inched closer to the season. We’ll debate how possible this turnaround can be in 2021 with Notre Dame coming to town for the opener.

Florida State’s Offense

The fortunes of Florida’s offense improving in 2021 will boil down to whether or not their offensive line can make a jump in pass protection and if the quarterback being protected is good enough to allow some skill players the opportunity to develop and flourish.

In some quarters, there’s been some cautious optimism for FSU but a more sober reality paints a picture of the Seminoles definitely uncertain about their situation on offense with the Irish coming to town.

Let’s start on the offensive line where 5 players return with starting experience. This includes former FIU transfer 5th-year senior Devontay Love-Taylor who missed the final 2 games of 2020 with injury, redshirt sophomore Dontae Lucas (14 career starts), 5th-year senior Baveon Johnson (20 career starts), redshirt sophomore Maurice Smith (9 career starts), sophomore Robert Scott (7 career starts), plus Notre Dame transfer Dillan Gibbons came in and won the left guard job.

As Michael Bryan pointed out in his 2021 opponent season preview, Florida State was very good running the ball last year but this unit really struggled pass blocking and word out of Tallahassee says things aren’t markedly better heading into 2021. It’s also not a blue-chip heavy line that you’d think will improve a lot with experience.

Things have been pretty tight-lipped on campus but if you read between the lines it certainly seems like star UCF transfer McKenzie Milton isn’t going to start at quarterback and if he does play against Notre Dame it may be very minimally. You’d expect Milton won’t really be 100% (if that level of health ever becomes a true reality) and throwing him into the fire against this Irish defense seems ill advised, if not reckless. He’s missed a bunch of practices and it would seem not smart to throw him back into the fire in a huge non-league night game for his first appearance in 1,017 days.

Expect to see a lot of quarterback Jordan Travis. 

Senior quarterback Jordan Travis enters his 3rd year in Tallahassee after originally signing for Louisville and gives the offense some stability. Last year, he was pretty impressive against the Irish (204 passing yards, 96 rushing yards, 2 TD) but has never had enough protection to showcase much of a passing threat across 20 career games with the Seminoles.

If the line can’t block and pick up blitzes very well, Florida State’s going to be limited again. They do have some playmakers they like with running backs Jashaun Corbin and Lawrance Toafili showing promise in 2020 and several wideouts trying to develop if they can get the ball, with Kansas transfer Andrew Parchment adding more depth. Will it amount to much change without the addition of a couple dynamic difference makers and poor pass blocking?

Florida State’s Defense

This will be an improved defense from 2020. By all accounts, last year’s Seminoles defense was one of the worst in school history finishing a dismal 108th overall in FEI (7th worst among Power 5 programs). Nothing sticks out, they were pretty much bad at everything:

PPG (105th)
Rushing/Game (97th)
Rushing Avg. (103rd)
Passing/Game (98th)
QB Rating (95th)
YPP (105th)

Surprisingly, this unit had 4 picks in the NFL Draft including corner Asante Samuel Jr (47th overall), defensive end Janarius Robinson (134th overall), defensive end Josh Kaindoh (144th overall), and safety Hamsah Nasirildeen (186th overall). Samuel was one of the nation’s top corners, Robinson was a solid player, while Kaindoh was largely a bust and Nasirildeen missed all but the final 2 games of 2020 with injury. What they all had in common was being elite recruits finishing as the 60th, 86th, 10th, and 109th national prospects coming out of high school, respectively.

The amount of improvement remains a big question mark, though.

Admittedly, the Noles do not like their linebackers which could be a problem covering Michael Mayer and trying to keep the Irish ground game under control. However, there have been bright spots during camp elsewhere on the roster.

The ‘Noles expect big things from Georgia transfer Jermaine Johnson. 

Big corner Travis Jay (6’2″ 203 lbs.) is emerging from a secondary that brings a lot of size, although a couple transfers haven’t panned out as expected as UCF’s Brandon Moore left the program this month and Arkansas’ Jarques McClellion was not named a starter. However, South Carolina transfer Jammie Robinson (135 tackles, 8 passes defended, 2 INT) was an important pick up and is starting at nickel.

Florida State is really banking on Georgia transfer Jermaine Johnson (36 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and South Carolina transfer Keir Thomas (142 tackles, 19.5 TFL, 8.5 sacks) transforming their defensive line from the edges after a season where the Seminoles finished with just 10 sacks in 9 games and a well-below-average 5.44 tackles for loss per game.

Prediction

What has changed in this matchup that 11 months since our last meeting the spread has dropped from 21 points (Irish winning by 16 points) to just 7.5 points this weekend? The pre-season FEI has the Irish up 3 spots to 7th from their final spot in 2020 while Florida State is up 26 spots to 77th from their final ranking last fall. To be fair, SP+ (50th) likes the Noles a lot more even though Vegas is predicting them to finish well below .500 this year.

Let’s examine the factors leading to a much closer line than maybe most Irish fans would expect:

1) Game Atmosphere – The entire country will be watching this Sunday night game and the crowd should be very lively. It’s also supposed to be 91 degrees in Tallahassee on Sunday, although that temperature should drop to around 70 degrees by kickoff.

2) Notre Dame Personnel Losses – The Irish faced a lot of questions coming into the season. It’s brought about some skepticism, especially nationally.

3) Florida State’s Improving Defense – The Noles are banking on transfer help and the positive vibes of a disruptive defensive line during camp with nowhere to go but up towards improvement.

4) Norvell Gets the Offense Going in Year 2 – Perhaps the coaching pedigree brings improvement mixed in with some health and stability at the quarterback position.

Personally, I find 1 and (to a certain extent) 3 convincing to a point while 2 a lot less so after fall camp and 4 will remain a mystery until kickoff but I’ll err on the side of prove it to me.

I thought this game would be very tricky but only if Milton was able to be ~85% of his former self and play the whole way. He was genuinely terrifying while at UCF while throwing for 8,683 yards with only 22 interceptions to go with 1,078 rushing yards and 92 total touchdowns. He won his last 28 starts before his devastating injury!

Milton had the ability to instantly boost the Florida State offense in a way that doesn’t exist with Jordan Travis. While he’s listed as a co-starter I have a hard time believing he’ll play anything more than a very minor role unless this is the all-time rope-a-dope strategy from Seminoles coaches and the media covering the team. It seems impossible.

There’s a natural progression here where Florida State should be better in 2021, unless Norvell is a complete phony of a coach and that’s not readily apparent at this point. They bring a lot of veterans back, should be in a much better state of mind than last year’s Covid struggles with a new coach, plugged some holes on the defensive line via the transfer portal, and while Tamorrion Terry’s absence makes the receivers less talented he only played in 5 games last year and is indicted for murder so maybe that’s addition by subtraction!

This will be Florida State’s first game since the passing of legendary head coach Bobby Bowden, it’s their 75th season of football, and it’s very possible the atmosphere is absolutely rocking on Sunday night. I would be surprised if the game isn’t tight, for a while. Like I mentioned above, last year’s game was an even more lopsided matchup, at home for Notre Dame, with Florida State coming off an embarrassingly shocking 42-point loss to Miami 2 weeks prior, and it was still a 9-point game in the 2nd half before the final Irish touchdown.

I keep going back to the thought that not a lot has changed for Florida State. It’s mostly the same players with a few transfers and the program hasn’t been developing many high-level blue-chip talent that the rest of the country bets are going to be part of a big turnaround. Their defense will be better but many questions persist on offense while the Irish front seven could pose serious problems.

On Notre Dame’s side, there’s worry the offensive line doesn’t gel very well and that in turn slows down Jack Coan’s ability to get comfortable. I’m expecting the Notre Dame offense to take a while to settle in and my guess is the 1st half will be largely sleepy and dull with not much scoring. I’d be very surprised if this game went over (56) the points but I really like the Irish to pull away as the better team.

Notre Dame 31

Florida State 19