Football Recruiting Rivalries: Michigan

Welcome back to our deep dive series on Irish football recruiting rivalries. There are a few key schools who make you go all Captain Kirk when they sign a Notre Dame target, because DAMMIT THEY DID IT AGAIN. We’re talking about those schools. We kicked off the series with a review of the Stanford recruiting rivalry. We continue today with Michigan, whose Dear Glorious Khaki-Clad Leader has absolutely eaten Brian Kelly’s lunch on the recruiting trail.* Later on we’ll delve into USC, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Washington.

* Note: This is essentially the opposite of true, despite its status as conventional wisdom in some corners of the internet.

Methodology

I’m going to include every commit who had offers from the other team in the win/loss counts, even if I know those offers weren’t really committable in some cases. This is because while I know that in some cases, I’m aware that neither I nor anyone else truly knows the status of all offers. Plus I have much more intimate knowledge of Notre Dame recruiting than opponents’ recruiting, of course, and it would be intellectually dishonest of me to say “they got recruit X because we didn’t push” and ignore the potential for that to happen in the other direction as well.

I broke the Kelly Epoch down into three distinct chunks to compare these rivalries: the 2011-14 classes, which we’ll call the Diaco Era, the 2015-17 classes, which we’ll call the BVG Era, and the 2018-20 classes, which we’ll call the Revival Era. Notre Dame’s on-field record in those three eras are, in order, 37-15, 22-16, and 22-4. Keep those in mind as you consume the other info here, as they’re obviously major factors in themselves. Note that while I’m using the DC’s names, we’re still looking at recruits on both sides of the ball in those eras. It’s just a convenient nomenclature.

Finally, we’ll cap each review with a quick look at the 2018-2020 cycles. Those are the ones that coincide with a better on-field product and a more recruiting-focused coaching staff, which should give us more of a sense of what is possible when things are going well.

The Scoreboard

37-0! Oh right, you meant the recruiting scoreboard. Well, here you go:

Well, looky there – the Irish have a substantial lead in the Kelly Epoch. Just like with Stanford, there is a ton of context to dig into around these numbers; doubly so in this case since Michigan has seen a lot more turnover in the Brian Kelly era than Stanford has. David Shaw’s first season as Stanford head coach was 2011, Brian Kelly’s second season in South Bend, and Shaw has had a high degree of staff continuity. Not so for the Wolverines, who have seen lots of faces come and go over the last decade.

This may seem like ancient history now, but Brady Hoke was Michigan’s head coach/clapper as recently as 2014. Jim Harbaugh, the official Michigan Man™ savior of the program, took over in 2015 and naturally dumped almost the entire staff, retaining only Irish nemesis Greg Mattison. While Harbaugh isn’t likely to leave anytime soon, his meeting room has had a revolving door; since the end of the 2016 season, he has replaced nine different assistants. Some assistant turnover is normal, of course, but that’s a lot, plus Harbaugh’s three-card monte approach to staff titles exacerbated the situation. For example:

• In 2017 Tim Drevno was the offensive coordinator/interior OL coach, Greg Frey was the run game coordinator/OT coach/TE coach, and Pep Hamilton was the passing game coordinator/QB coach/WR coach (seriously).
• In 2018 Michigan had no titular offensive coordinator (seriously!), Ed Warriner was the RGC/OL coach, and Hamilton was the PGC/QB coach. Jim McElwain, fresh off his dismissal as Florida HC and with a background as an OC, took over the WRs but had no coordinator title.
• In 2019 former Alabama assistant Josh Gattis will take on his first OC role while also coaching WRs, a position McElwain vacated when he took the Central Michigan head job. The RGC/PGC titles are gone, as is Hamilton. Warriner remains.

Umm… Stability, y’all. Further rubbing salt in the turnover wound is that both Mattison and LB coach/Michigan Man™ Al Washington took jobs at hated rival Ohio State this offseason. Heh.

Wins and Losses

Much like with Stanford, we see a significant dip in the BVG Era in this rivalry. And just like with Stanford, part of that is due to the sub-par recruiting chops of the BVG Era staff and part is due to on-field performance – the last two classes of the 2011-14 cohort saw Notre Dame go 21-5, while the last two of the 2015-17 cohort saw 14-11. While Kelly has seemed to only recently weigh recruiting ability more heavily for hires, Harbaugh always has; the addition of Don Brown in 2015 (affecting the 2016 cycle and later) was particularly important. We can see in the Revival Era that good on-field results paired with good recruiters has led to the best performance of Kelly’s tenure against Michigan.

Quality Control

Offensive recruiting against Michigan has clearly improved steadily over the Kelly Epoch. The last two years in particularly have been rough for the Skunkbears, with the Irish winning by a 13-8 margin overall and a 10-3 margin in “truly wanted” recruits (more on that below). The downward trend in comparative defensive prospect scores is a bit puzzling, given the factors noted above about the Revival Era; it’s especially puzzling when you look at the anecdotal evidence (again, more below) which supports the idea that we’ve done just fine. I think what’s at play here is variance due to sample size – Notre Dame has a 17-9 edge in defensive recruits the last few cycles, and a few of those Michigan wins are highly-ranked guys who skew the average a bit. They’re still losses, obviously, but in this case I don’t think the average by itself gives a complete picture.

Highlights/Lowlights

Lemon juice on your paper cut in the form of some of the more notable Michigan wins:

• Consensus #1 overall Rashan Gary, 2016: Harbaugh hired his high school coach as an off-field recruiting coordinator. That ended up being somewhat serendipitous, as Chris Partridge has turned into a pretty good coach and is now the second-longest tenured assistant on Harbaugh’s staff. But that’s an unintended consequence for Jimbo. Worth noting that he did the same thing the next year when he hired Devin Bush Sr. as a defensive analyst, a role he still fills for them, two weeks after signing day. Also worth noting that the NCAA outlawed Harbaugh’s strategy the year after that.
• Five-star DT Chris Hinton, 2019: Hinton showed some interest in Notre Dame and Stanford early, but ultimately Michigan pulled off the coup here. His father Chris Sr. was a seven-time Pro Bowl offensive lineman, and his younger brother Myles is a five-star OT in Stanford’s 2020 class. There are some questions over whether Chris Jr.’s best fit is ultimately on offense, but regardless, Mike Elston would’ve been elated to land him.
• Top 100 CB David Long, 2016: Long had an interesting recruitment. The Los Angelene committed to Stanford just before his senior season, then visited Notre Dame, Michigan, and Washington (but not Stanford) before decommitting in December and ultimately signing with the Wolverines in February. He became an elite defender and left Michigan early to be drafted in the third round by his hometown Rams.
• Top 100 DE Braiden McGregor, 2020: McGregor made a silent commitment to Michigan and feigned serious interest in the Irish for a while after that, even going so far as to engage in a Rony-Tuiasosopo-like marathon FaceTime call with Drew Pyne. Michigan Man™. All that aside, there’s no question the Irish wanted McGregor badly and believed they had a shot, so this one hurt.
• Top 100 LB Drew Singleton, 2017: The only other recruit Harbaugh landed from Gary’s high school; setting up that pipeline was supposed to be a major reason for hiring Partridge. Singleton has since transferred.
• Top 100 CB Ambry Thomas, 2017: Notre Dame tried to pull Thomas from Detroit’s Martin Luther King HS, which is essentially a Michigan/Michigan State feeder program; while he visited, it never really got serious. Thomas had the kick return score in last year’s game and is slated to start at corner this year.

And now some Neosporin in the form of the most notable Notre Dame wins:

• Five-star LB Jaylon Smith, 2013
• Five-star DT Eddie Vanderdoes, 2013 (I know, I know, but he did commit to Notre Dame and have a Michigan offer)
• Five-star WR Jordan Johnson, 2020
• Five-star RB Chris Tyree, 2020
• Top 100 LB Nyles Morgan, 2019
• Top 100 S Kyle Hamilton, 2020
• Top 100 OT Tosh Baker, 2020
• Top 100 TE Brock Wright, 2017
• Top 100 DB Houston Griffith, 2018
• Top 100 TE Michael Mayer, 2020
• Top 100 OT Liam Eichenberg, 2016
• Top 100 WR Kevin Austin, 2018
• Top 100 OT Robert Hainsey, 2017
• Top 100 TE Cole Kmet, 2017
• Top 100 OG Zeke Corell, 2019
• Top 100 S Elijah Shumate, 2012
• Top 100 OLB Shayne Simon, 2018
• Top 100 RB Dexter Williams, 2015
• Top 100 WR Davaris Daniels, 2011
• Top 100 OT Hunter Bivin, 2012

That’s the full lists of top 100 wins for each school; the scoreboard stands at 20-7 in Notre Dame’s favor. Even if you take out Vanderdoes, 19-7 still speaks for itself. This is why talk of how badly Michigan treats us on the trail rankles me so much – they don’t! We’ve actually beaten them like a rented mule across Hoke and Harbaugh’s tenures. They’ve had a couple of high-profile wins but really, we’re hammering them.

Recent History

Notre Dame clearly has a massive edge in 2018. The Irish staff wanted McGrone and Hayes and I think would’ve taken Sims, but didn’t pursue Muhammad and had interest in Turner but not overriding interest. On the flip side, I don’t think Michigan was ever seriously in the picture for Austin, Keys, Boykin, or Patterson, but they certainly would’ve taken at least Austin and everyone else in the list is a straight loss for them. Bludgeoning.

2019 was much more even, both in terms of performance and how much interest each school had in the other’s signees. Cade McNamara flipped from Notre Dame to Michigan (in part, according to rumor, because he was concerned about being buried behind Phil Jurkovec). There are a couple of recruits on each side that the other staff didn’t end up thinking that much of, and there are a bunch on each side that the other staff would’ve gladly taken. I would give a small edge to Notre Dame here as I think the top end of its list is a tad stronger than Michigan’s top half and the bottom half of its list is much stronger than Michigan’s bottom half.

Much like with Stanford, the 2020 class so far is overwhelmingly in Notre Dame’s favor. Michigan was never really on the table for Pyne (good man), and they definitely had interest in Bartleson but I’m not sure of how much interest. Everyone else they would’ve taken in a heartbeat. The Irish staff really wanted McGregor, Henning, and Morant, but the only reason Michigan landed Zinter and Atteberry is that Notre Dame (and, in Attebery’s case, Ohio State) told the kids no. That’s a butt-kicking of biblical proportions.

Finally, wrapping up with the defensive average Composite score trend mentioned earlier… As you can see here, Michigan has taken only nine defensive recruits with Irish offers since 2018, but a few of them have been very good. Top 100 recruits Hinton, McGregor, and Smith (#106 overall, close enough) account for one third of Michigan’s total take; Notre Dame, meanwhile, pulled one more top 100 defender from Michigan, but Hamilton, Griffith, Simon, and Allen (#105 overall, again, close enough) account for just under a quarter of Notre Dame’s total take. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.