Notre Dame finished the regular season with USC and will complete the bowl season facing the other USC from the southeast. Friday afternoon live from Jacksonville, the Irish will face South Carolina in the 78th edition of the Gator Bowl.
This will be the first time Notre Dame and the Gamecocks meet in the post-season and the first meeting overall since 1984 when I was all of 2 years old.
It’s the end of year 2 of the Shane Beamer era in Columbia and he heads into this game 15-10 overall but coming off massive upsets over Tennessee and Clemson to conclude the regular season.
Notre Dame (-2.5) vs. South Carolina
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field
Jacksonville, Florida
Date: Friday, December 30, 2022
Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Series: 3-1-0 Notre Dame
As usual this time of year, South Carolina is dealing with plenty of roster upheaval like many other programs across the country. In addition to some key players not being available the Gamecocks are also breaking in a new offensive coordinator.
Are we going to make South Carolina walk the plank?
Is the bowl game important? Do players still care about bowl games? Do we as fans still care about bowl games? These are difficult questions to answer. We’re still writing previews like it matters, though.
South Carolina’s Offense
Marcus Satterfield’s relationship with Matt Rhule goes back to 2005 when they were both at Western Carolina early in their careers and the former became the latter’s offensive coordinator at Temple in 2013. A few years later, Satterfield was hired as Tennessee Tech’s head coach where he’d go 6-16 before joining Rhule at Baylor in 2018 as tight ends coach, as well as following Rhule to the Carolina Panthers in 2020 as an assistant offensive line coach.
For 2021, Satterfield was hired by Beamer to become the offensive coordinator at South Carolina. He dealt with a nightmarish season at quarterback finishing 99th in FEI offense a year ago, and despite improvement up to 51st today Satterfield wasn’t too beloved and took a new job….guess where….that’s right as the Nebraska OC to be back home with Matt Rhule.
In his place, Beamer hired Dowell Loggains who had been the Arkansas tight ends coach for the past 2 seasons. Prior to that, Loggains spent his entire coaching career as an assistant in the NFL (outside of coordinating the Titans’ offense back in 2012-13).
On the offensive line, 6th-year center Eric Douglas (6-4, 297) and 5th-year senior right guard Jovaughn Gwyn (6-3, 300) started every game this season and come into Friday with a combined 82 career starts.
At left guard and both tackle spots there’s been a mixed bag of 6 others making starts in 2022. We can expect redshirt junior Jaylen Nichols (6-5, 322) at left tackle and redshirt junior Jakai Moore (6-6, 305) at left guard. Fifth-year senior Dylan Wonnum (6-5, 305) would be set to start at right tackle after 40 career starts but has left the team to prepare for the NFL. In his place, South Carolina is expected to start redshirt sophomore Tyshawn Wannamaker (6-3, 308) who has some starting experience.
After the regular season, the Gamecocks lost versatile tight end Jaheim Bell (231 receiving yards, 261 rushing yards, 5 total TD) after he transferred to Florida State, plus their other tight end Austin Stogner (210 yards, 1 TD) transferred back to Oklahoma where he had been enrolled from 2019-21.
Can Rattler take the next step in the Gator Bowl?
Additionally, starting running back MarShawn Lloyd jumped into the transfer portal after his redshirt sophomore season totaled 573 yards and 9 touchdowns. Wake Forest grad transfer Christian Beal-Smith ran for over 1,800 yards with the Demon Deacons but has been slowed all year at South Carolina with injuries being limited to just 148 yards rushing. He’ll likely share time with sophomore Juju McDowell who weighs 180 pounds and has 192 receiving yards to 191 rushing yards in 2022.
That’s not great news for an offense averaging 3.8 yards per carry (2nd worst in the SEC behind Kentucky) on the ground with a bad Busted Drive Rate (102nd nationally by FEI) and even worse Turnover Rate (116th nationally).
South Carolina is hoping quarterback Spencer Rattler both reduces the turnovers and steps up as a bigger playmaker in their offense. The former 5-star recruit is finishing his redshirt junior season after transferring from Oklahoma this past off-season. He was pretty bang average as a quarterback with only one game (South Carolina State) over 200 yards passing from games 3 through 10 until exploding for 798 yards in his last 2 high-profile games.
Rattler will have some nice weapons to throw to at receiver led by former James Madison All-American Antwane Wells who transferred in this year and leads the team with 63 catches, 898 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Former FCS wideout Jalen Brooks came to South Carolina in 2021 and has a solid 504 yards and 33 receptions (although Beamer said he’s dealing with an off the field issue and his status is TBD) while 5th-year senior Josh Vann has some big play potential with 16.4 yards per reception, including a pair of scores recently against Tennessee (although he’s officially listed as doubtful with a leg injury).
South Carolina’s Defense
When Mike Sanford, Jr. took the Western Kentucky head coaching job he brought in NC State assistant Clayton White to be his defensive coordinator. White would remain with the Hilltoppers for 2 more years after Sanford’s firing and was brought in by Beamer to coordinate the Gamecocks defense in 2021.
White uses a lot of different formations with South Carolina. It’s difficult to get a read on what base they use but to me it looks like a 4-2-5 but with the use of multiple fronts in a way that stands out even in an era where everyone uses multiple fronts. From the looks of things, they are a little too exotic for their own good.
On the defensive line, the Gamecocks will be without tackle Zacch Pickens who declared for the NFL shortly after the Clemson win while leaving behind 32 starts, 131 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, and 7.5 sacks.
On the interior, junior Tonka Hemingway (6-3, 295), redshirt sophomore Alex Huntley (6-4, 305), 6th-year senior M.J. Webb (6-3, 313), redshirt freshman T.J. Sanders (6-5, 300), and redshirt sophomore Nick Barrett (6-3, 330) all see action and offer plenty of size.
South Carolina lost starting edge rusher Jordan Strachan to an ACL injury after the 2nd game of the season and relies on junior Jordan Burch (6-6, 275) who has 56 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks. He would’ve been backed up by redshirt sophomore Gilber Edmond (6-5, 250) who has 9 tackles for loss but he entered the transfer portal on December 19th.
DC Clayton White is without several key pieces.
The Cocks suffered more injury bad luck when starting middle linebacker Mohamed Kaba was also lost for the season with an ACL after their 2nd game.
We’ll see 6th-year senior Sherrod Greene (6-1, 233), redshirt sophomore Debo Williams (6-1, 237), 6th-year senior Brad Johnson (6-2, 238), and former community college transfer redshirt junior Bam Martin-Scott (6-2, 235) on the field at linebacker. There isn’t a ton of production from this group and it looks like a clear weak-link in the South Carolina defense.
The Gamecocks will be severely shorthanded in the secondary. Three-year starting safety R.J. Roderick was injured in the 1st game of the season, and eventually entered the transfer portal back in October. Quasi-starter at safety and nickel David Spaulding injured his foot early in the season, tried to play through it, but had surgery in November. Most importantly, top corner Cam Smith declared for the NFL Draft and is getting plenty of 1st round hype with projections such as these: 22nd overall (CBS Sports), 12th (Ringer), 15th (Pro Football Network), and 21st (Tankathon).
6th-year senior Devonni Reed (5-11, 200) would be starting at safety after being a 4-year starter at Central Michigan, but left the team 10 days before the bowl game to prepare for the NFL. In his place, true freshman Nick Emmanwori (6-4, 218) who leads the team in tackles with 78 stops and another true freshman DQ Smith (6-1, 212) will see the bulk of the action.
5th-year senior Darius Rush (6-2, 200) is in his second year of starting and would’ve moved up to be the no. 1 corner without Cam Smith but he decided to leave for the NFL just over a week ago. Instead, former JUCO transfer Marcellas Dial (6-0, 192) adds starting experience for the past 2 seasons and redshirt sophomore O’Donnell Fortune (6-1, 185) will move up to starting roles.
Prediction
I’m sure most have heard about the impending special teams clash of titans about to take place in the Gator Bowl? Yes, Notre Dame’s Brian Mason goes head-to-head with South Carolina’s Pete Lembo as the Gamecocks carry the no. 1 FEI special teams unit in the nation.
Lembo has experienced one weird career. Coming off solid head coaching jobs at Lehigh and Elon, he took over Ball State in 2011 and went an impressive 19-7 (13-1 in the MAC) over 2012-14 and looked to be the next young coaching star. Then, Ball State cratered to 8-16 over the next 2 years and Lembo has been an assistant head coach and special teams coordinator at Maryland, Rice, Memphis, and now South Carolina ever since.
South Carolina kicker Mitch Jeter is 10 for 10 on the season (he hasn’t attempted any from 40-49 yards, but is 2/2 from 50+ though) and punter Kal Kroeger is 2nd nationally with a 46.83 average. Also, they are 5th nationally in punt and kickoff return average in addition to blocking 5 punts. That’s impressive work.
Lembo, overqualified for this role?
There’s been a lot of talk about South Carolina’s weak run defense (4.85 yards per rush allowed, only Vanderbilt was worse in the SEC) which isn’t good news considering their secondary will be missing several key pieces from a defense that is in the bottom quarter nationally and 4th worse among SEC teams in allowing 3rd down conversions.
Notre Dame should feel pretty comfortable bringing Tyler Buchner back, leaning on the run game, and moving the sticks enough in key situations on this Gamecocks defense.
I know the questions about the quarterback position and how Buchner looks like will grab most of the headlines but for me this is a game where a pretty conservative attack should allow Notre Dame to score 30 points. The current over/under (51.5 points) from Vegas has the Irish slightly under that mark but I’d be surprised if they didn’t top 30 points.
| STAT | ND | COCKS |
|---|---|---|
| FEI Offense | 42 | 51 |
| FEI Defense | 31 | 57 |
The more intriguing question for me is whether Spencer Rattler can continue his hot streak from the end of the regular season and lift up this Gamecocks offense.
No doubt, the losses of Isaiah Foskey and Michael Mayer are big for Notre Dame. And technically, the Irish are without Drew Pyne but still re-inserting the opening day quarterback anyway. In comparison, South Carolina could be without as many as half their starters!
That could include 3 out of their top 4 pass-catchers being out, plus the top 2 ball carriers (tight end Bell was 2nd on the team in rushing) who accounted for 56.3% of their rushing during the regular season from an offense that hasn’t broke 1,500 yards on the season yet.
That’s going to be a tough hill to climb for Rattler (with a new OC!) who also doesn’t run the ball a whole lot, either. Coming into Friday, he’s averaging just over 3 non-sack rushing attempts for 16 yards per game. I think he’ll go through long stretches of struggles and Notre Dame wins the Gator Bowl with a bit of comfort.
The vibes have been a bit negative around nd, or at least the message boards, between the loss to usc, the decommitments, michigan success. ND could really use a double digit win, another ranked win and a top 15ish finish this year. Even if this game is more of a glorified scrimmage, as prosper says “they’re keeping score”
I do think I would have been worried by previous staffs overreacting to this game and anointing buchner as the starter based on the results of this game. Seems pretty likely staff won’t do that no matter what happens
Side note, I got a stranger high five from a South Carolina fan in the Greenville airport the week after the Clemson game (was wearing a ND pullover) and several other passersby were giving thumbs up and offering congratulations for beating their rival. I was happy for them when they beat Clemson too a few weeks later.
Rattler is the wild card, glad he’s had a few weeks to cool off. If he is really good in the game as he is capable of playing, they have a chance. If he’s not, which is also a big possibility, I think it should be a fairly easy ND win.
I’ll go hopeful for 24-17 ND in a game that doesn’t feel as close as the score (maybe 27-17).
between all the injuries, opt outs, transfers etc. (which is kinda darkly hilarious that SCar has more people opting out in what could be just the 8th all time 9+ win season than ND in a ho hum 8-4 year) and the fundamental inability to protect the QB and stop the run i just can’t see a way the gamecocks keep this close
i don’t think it’ll be like the florida game where ND wins by 30+ and runs for nearly 400 but,,,
i leave for jacksonville tomorrow for first ever ND bowl game which is very fun
ND 24
SC 6
Catholics vs Cock Commanders
Notes from Freeman’s presser today:
*Totally focused on winning (alright!)
*Patterson had no thoughts about sitting out.
*Jay Ademilola is out with an injury.
*Brandon Joseph is questionable with an ankle injury.
*Buchner has been ‘magnificent’ during bowl practices.
*Freeman: Experience very important in finding a portal QB.
*Patterson/Betrand echo opportunity for young players without Foskey/Mayer.
*Freeman needs to look transfer in the eye and ask tough questions.
*Also wants ND doctors to clear transfer for the field.
Bummer that Jayson’s ND playing days are over. Something tells me Joseph isn’t going to be exactly pushing to get on the field for one more game, but I guess we’ll see.
Yup, I doubt he plays.
Are we sure Joseph isn’t coming back? It seemed like a possibility he wouldn’t as of a couple weeks ago, and I can’t imagine he got a draft grade. Sneaky big story if he sticks around!
From a football perspective it’s tough to see him leaving. Though this could be a Kevin Austin situation where he just had it in his mind to leave (for whatever reason) since his initial plans seemed to indicate coming to ND, being an all-american, get drafted high.
Yeah, you’re right it’s still his prerogative to have a change of mind.
I believe the last I heard was the minor senior day controversy when Freeman said only those for sure departing this year should walk and anyone who thought there was a possibility of coming back should not participate. Joseph told reporters something along the lines that he was planning on walking. (Which didn’t matter since Freeman changed his stance and allowed all seniors who earned it to participate, even ones who might come back).
Meaning Joseph’s plan/expectation was to no be back at ND as recently as mid-November. I def agree it would be good for him (and great for ND) if he stayed another year, but it seems like his mindset has never been anything but a one year stay. Maybe seeing some hard data is the impetus to have something change.
What does this mean?
Probably just a routine physical?
Here’s the complete quote. Pretty much just generally talking about how they use injury history to consider if a transfer is healthy enough to take.
“I’ll always lean on our doctors to give us a thumbs up or thumbs down. Maybe they did not medically evaluate them, but they can make phone calls, they can look at the medical history, and say, ‘Okay, hey, we feel good about this,’ or ‘This is something that is going to be an issue.’ We do both.”
Unfortunately we’re only taking candidates with all their ribs.
Very tough to get a feel for this one. If I were South Carolina’s DC, I’d sell out on the run to the point of recklessness and throw the craziest stuff imaginable at ND’s offense.
I think we’ll squeak out a sloppy, low-scoring win. ND 20-17.
Brooks and Vann officially ruled out by Beamer.
So, only 1 out of their top 5 pass catchers are playing.
I do not understand why this is a 2.5 point line, which of course makes me nervous. Nonetheless: Irish by 13 with a garbage-time score by SC.