If there was hardware to be taken home following the win over Indiana I’m not sure what would be put on display, perhaps some sort of plaque with the Allstate First Round Playoffs emblazoned on it? This week, Notre Dame has the opportunity to win the Sugar Bowl trophy–the most traditional looking of the major bowls–with a victory leading to a possible Orange Bowl win in the national semifinals.
Now in New Orleans, the Georgia Bulldogs await.
Notre Dame (+2) vs. Georgia
The 91st Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
Date: Wednesday, January 1, 2025
Time: 8:45 PM ET
TV: ESPN
It’s been an odd season for the Dawgs who started the season as the pre-season no. 1 team in the country according to both polls and opened their campaign with a 34-3 thrashing of Clemson. There was an early-season 13-12 escape at Kentucky followed up the next week by a loss at Alabama before rebounding for 4 straight wins–including taking care of Texas–but another road loss 28-10 at Ole Miss dropped them down to 7-2.
However, Georgia comes to New Orleans on a 4-game winning streak with a solid victory over Tennessee and a 2nd victory over Texas in the SEC Championship among those results.
A bowl game, but also a playoff game.Â
With the talk about Notre Dame’s injuries it’s a huge blow for Georgia to be missing quarterback Carson Beck who had surgery shortly before Christmas to repair the UCL in his throwing arm after injuring it right before halftime in the SEC Championship. A product of perhaps too much hype, Beck has been the quarterback while Georgia’s running game took a sizable step backwards as he was forced to carry the offense for long stretches of the season.
Vegas Corner
The game opened as a pick ’em in Vegas and quickly moved to Georgia as a 1-point favorite. It stayed there for a while and has been fluctuating between 1.5 and 2 points over the last week. With an over/under of 44.5 points, Vegas is expecting a very low scoring game. For the record, Notre Dame is 11-2 against the spread this year while Georgia is only 4-9.
Weather Report
We’ll be inside for this New Years Day matchup as the Caesars Superdome awaits. For those traveling to Nola, the forecast has a bit of a cold front moving in Tuesday night which will see temperatures hovering in the high 50’s throughout game day. It should be mostly sunny though with a little bit of a wind up to 12 mph from the north so expect a bit of a headwind if you’re walking up Bourbon Street from the Mississippi River.
Did Caesar live here?
It feels like Notre Dame has played in New Orleans more recently than to conclude the 2006 season but it’s in fact been 18 years since the last appearance in the city and in the Sugar Bowl. Two of Notre Dame’s most memorable victories in school history (1973 Sugar Bowl over no. 1 Alabama and the 1992 “Cheerios Bowl” 39-28 win over Florida) came in New Orleans, although the former game came in the since-demolished Tulane Stadium.
The Superdome has been renovated a few times since Notre Dame’s last visit and just finished a $560 million upgrade to open for this 2024-25 football season.
Series History
This will be the 4th meeting between the school’s and each matchup to date has featured both team’s ranked at kickoff. The 1981 Sugar Bowl was the first meeting as Georgia finished their first National Championship season. Since then we’ve witnessed the 2017/19 home-and-home series in which the Bulldogs finished 2nd and 4th nationally, respectively. The Irish come into this week’s game 0-3 against the Dawgs but each meeting has been very close. Georgia leads the overall combined score 60-46.
Coaching Staff
Kirby Smart was a former All-SEC safety at Georgia and entered coaching almost immediately after going undrafted in 1999. He coached the defensive backs for Nick Saban at LSU in 2004, flipped over to coach running backs at Georgia for one season, then joined Saban as his safeties coach with the Dolphins before moving to Alabama with Saban where he’d spend 2008-15 as the Tide’s defensive coordinator.
105 wins and he just turned 49 years old.Â
At $13 million per season, Smart is the highest paid coach in college football. After an 8-5 opening season with Georgia, he’s been 97-13 since the start of the 2017 season with 3 SEC Championships, 6 major bowl wins, 3 National Title Game appearances, and 2 National Championships. Over the last 8 seasons, they have not lost to a program outside the current SEC. Their only defeat outside of the SEC at the time has been the 2019 Sugar Bowl to Texas.
Smart is heavily involved in the defense with linebackers coach Glenn Schumann calling plays since being promoted to coordinator prior to the 2022 season. On offense, Mike Bobo is in his 2nd stint with the school and was named offensive coordinator prior to 2023.
Portal
QB Jaden Rashada – Arizona State
RB Trevor Etienne – Florida
WR London Humphreys – Vanderbilt
WR Colbie Young – Miami
TE Ben Yurosek – Stanford
With how well Georgia has recruited in recent years (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 1st in the 247 Composite Rankings over the last 5 cycles) you wouldn’t expect them to have hit the portal super hard recently. That was the case heading into 2024 where no high-profile transfers were brought in for the Dawgs’ defense.
Rashada is included as he’s now sharing the backup role with the injury to Beck. You may remember Rashada’s NIL-fueled recruiting drama that saw him commit to Miami and Florida before landing at Arizona State for 2023 then moving to Athens this past off-season.
Etienne was the high profile transfer from the rival Gators but did miss the last 3 regular season games with a rib injury (plus the opener for a DUI arrest) before returning in the SEC Championship.
Humphreys has caught 15 passes in 2024 while Young caught 11 in the first 5 games prior to an arrest for domestic battery that has kept him on the sidelines since early October.
Yurosek had a nice career with the Cardinal and looked poised to continue the modern tight end tradition at Georgia, although he’s been in a rotation with 2 others at the position in 2024 and caught 15 passes so far.
Top Men
QB Gunner Stockton – Most quarterbacks probably would’ve transferred if they were in Stockton’s shoes. Carson Beck decided to return to Athens this year, the aforementioned Rashada transferred in, and the Dawgs signed high 4-star Ryan Puglisi for 2024. Instead Stockton–no recruiting slouch himself (high 4-star) from the north of Georgia near the North and South Carolina borders–stuck it out and will start his first career game in the national quarterfinals. He’s a virtual unknown as a passer (51 career throws) who showed solid efficiency with 4 scoring drives in the 2nd half/overtime against Texas, albeit with one horrendous interception. He has shown decent accuracy, good zip on his throws, and will likely run the ball a ton against Notre Dame.
Stockton is built more like a running back.Â
RB Trevor Etienne – With Etienne missing 4 games, Georgia has leaned on true freshman Nate Frazier all season as well as sophomore Branson Robinson until the latter’s MCL injury has seen him miss the last 7 games. Both were near 5-star recruits and should come good eventually but this has been a tough year on the ground for the Dawgs and Etienne brings an added dynamism that is lacking from the younger tailbacks.
WR Dominic Lovett – Georgia is averaging nearly 100 more passing yards per game than Notre Dame but like the Irish it doesn’t feel like they have a real dangerous group of wideouts (3rd leading receiver Dillon Bell has been slow coming back from an ankle injury against Tennessee) or one big star. Lovett came to Athens after 2 years at Missouri and has been effective throughout his career with 2,207 yards and 11 touchdowns in 53 games as a true senior.
DE Mykel Williams – The top prospect in 2022 from the state of Georgia not named Travis Hunter. Williams played right away as a true freshman and is projected as an early-to-mid 1st round pick in some places. While his career numbers won’t jump off the page (14 career sacks) he’s extremely versatile and known as a great run stopper.
S Malaki Starks – Another 5-star from Georgia’s 2022 class, Starks was the nation’s top athlete and has transitioned to a safety/nickel corner for the Dawgs. He’s projected to come off the board as perhaps the top safety in the 2025 NFL Draft and has completed back-to-back All-American seasons in Athens. He may be pound-for-pound the best player Notre Dame has faced in 2024.
Good Matchup
Georgia’s Passing Game vs. Notre Dame’s Secondary
With enough time to prepare, Al Golden should be able to cook up some pressures that will get home on Stockton in the pass game. Although I have nightmares Stockton throws for 300 yards and the Dawgs go on a run to another title, the inexperience as a passer has to be a big problem against this Irish secondary. It just has to be that way if Notre Dame wins.
Bad Matchup
Georgia’s Run Game vs. Notre Dame’s Front
True, the Georgia running game hasn’t been a strength this year. They’ve only rushed for 200 yards once this season (UMass, 208 yards) which seems impossible for a program of this caliber and their modern running back history. However, with Notre Dame’s injuries up front and the loss of Mills, combined with Georgia being able to be use a physical runner like Stockton as part of the gameplan, this is potentially a problem for the Irish.
Special Teams
True sophomore Peyton Woodring handles field goals for Georgia and has been named a freshman All-American (2023) and first-team All-SEC (2024) already in his career. Thus far, he’s made 41 out of his 47 field goal attempts.
Junior punter Brett Thorson–another Aussie from Melbourne–is in his 3rd year starting and was named to the AP All-American 2nd team after the regular season.
The 170-pound sophomore Anthony Evans handles the punt and kick return duties. Georgia hasn’t gotten much out of this part of special teams in 2024–Evans has just 228 combined yards on his returns.
Prediction
I haven’t had such a difficult time picking a game in a long, long time.
Trying to look at this from an impartial outsider’s perspective, seeing Georgia lose their quarterback for this matchup, in a season where the SEC wasn’t super strong, and the advanced stats* don’t love the Bulldogs and suggest they are completely beatable–I’d be picking Notre Dame and not feeling too fussed about it.
*Georgia has been ranked no. 1 overall in FEI 3 times since the 2017 season. Their current ranking of 8th is the 2nd worst of this timeframe behind only their weird Covid year when they were working through a JT Daniels and Stetson Bennett debate at quarterback.
FEI 2024 RANKINGS
| STAT | IRISH | DAWGS |
|---|---|---|
| FEI Overall | 3 | 8 |
| FEI Offense | 7 | 9 |
| FEI Defense | 1 | 13 |
Sophomore offensive lineman Monroe Freeling is set to start his 5th straight game at left tackle following the shoulder injury of Earnest Greene and the aforementioned Branson Robinson was not at Georgia’s open practice before leaving for New Orleans last week. There’s a world where this is a disaster in the making for their offense. An inexperienced backup quarterback is facing the no. 1 FEI defense!
On the flip side, Kirby Smart having 25 days of rest and preparation for Notre Dame isn’t something I love. They’ve been so good in big games and in that regard it makes sense for them to be favored.
How good is this Georgia defense, really? They’ve been pretty healthy and look to be getting starting defensive lineman Christen Miller back after he missed the last 2 games. They did have corner Julian Humphrey jump in the portal when he lost his starting job after starting 10 games. But for the most part, they have a fully stocked Dawgs defense.
After being no. 1 in FEI defense for back-to-back seasons in 2021-22 Georgia was 13th last year and come into Wednesday ranked 13th, as well. But last year they didn’t give up 30 points in any of their games and their stats looked mostly very strong against a very tough schedule. This year, the Dawgs allowed 30+ points on 3 occasions and they are also allowing 5.12 yards per play which is a clear indicator this is not the same suffocating defense Notre Dame saw back in 2019 (nearly a full yard better in YPP defense!) when we lost a defensive battle in Athens.
I think we’ll see a lot more points from both sides than expected–that’s the vibe I get from this matchup. Stockton is going to be super annoying and prolong drives with his feet and Leonard has been able to do that all season long. Even if neither side has a great passing game being able to contain good running quarterbacks is a chore for any defense.
If the Irish can keep things close in terms of physicality up front on both sides of the lines I think they’ve got this game, although the lack of kicking game cohesion is a giant red flag that could ultimately burn Notre Dame. My brain trusts Kirby Smart and Georgia to win this game and make things too difficult for the Irish offense but I’m moving full speed ahead with a prediction and will be disappointed if Notre Dame can’t move on to the Orange Bowl.
I would feel so much better about this matchup if the D Line wasn’t decimated by injuries. They played great against IU, but losing Rylie Mills is going to make this a massive challenge.
I’m going to say the ND linebackers make a statement on the national stage here. Stockton tries to run early, but every time he does he takes a big hit from this group, which slows him down over the course of the game. Georgia only breaks one or two decent runs all game, and this group forces a turnover somewhere too.
ND 21 Georgia 20
I know that you could say this about any team, and injuries are just part of the game (look at Detroit’s bad luck with defensive injuries), but man, if we could have found a way to keep this whole defense healthy, I think we might have been favorites to win it all. As it is, I do trust in Golden, but I fear that the Mills injury may end up being the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
Georgia certainly can’t afford to go to their backup.
I am heartened by your pick, I expected the scores flipped. Small sample size Stockton has been bad when pressured. I think we need to see that stay true. I think J.Love should be closer to 100%, Price in an interview said he feels fresher now, than he did in October. (BTW Price leads the nation in yards after contact and Love is 3rd, the Boise kid is 2nd.) We need their best. In the practice video, Spindler and KVA looked to be moving pretty well. Hopefully they are good to go.
I think the whole game comes down to Riley Leonard playing a clean, fearless game. The short passing game is going to be crucial. He needs to be accurate, while avoiding batted and tipped balls. I remember in the Duke game last year thinking, “damn this kid is determined to beat us” and then he got hurt. If he’s playing with that same “moxie” 2nd half Wednesday, I think this team will rally around him.
Been waiting what seems a very long time for this preview, and it was worth the wait. Good info.
As for the focus — yeah, like everyone, the loss of R Mills is such a big factor. Especially since Georgia’s O-line and RBs are looking healthier, and like mentioned, K Smart has had tons of time to prep his squad. So yes, our LBs absolutely have to step up, and yes, KVA coming back could help.
As for our offense, our young LT in pass pro is a worry, and I think Rylie will be rushed, which could impact that short passing game in ways we don’t like. Gonna be critical though. Give me slants to Faison!
If Eric is picking Notre Dame to win a big game, I’m in.
This might be blasphemy I think I’m in a headspace where I’m more confident about our offense against their defense than vise versa? I just feel a 99% healthy offense against an inconsistent defense with over a week to prepare is a better bet than our extremely hobbled defense against an offense that’s going to attack a clear vulnerability.
If there was ever a game for Jeremiyah Love to get 25+ touches, this is it. Just build the entire offense out of him and please get Price on the field at the same time. As Eric pointed out, this isn’t a typically great Kirby defense. Yes, those Texas wins were impressive but maybe Texas just has a Georgia problem because the UGA defense rarely performed like that outside those two games and the opener against Clemson.
I was thinking the georgia punter was hurt and they were having to use a backup? honestly not sure where I heard that but seems relevant.
A couple things about kirby and his big game reputation. 1 I think nd fans will quickly grow to hate kirby wednesday. I am not sure all nd fans are super locked in on sec stuff but his behavior is childish and frankly he comes off as a whiny bitch quite often. plus he like punched a miss state player with no repercussions.
2. His big game reputation is overstated. if jameson williams and john metchie dont BOTH tear their acl saban beats him twice in 2021 and bama wins the title. If harrison doesn’t get knocked out and day doesn’t pucker up ohio state wins in 2022 and kirby has a huge albatross around him, ironically kind of like day. I know most champions have to get a touch lucky but this isn’t exactly peak saban.
Having said that, i’ll believe nd wins games like this once they start winning games like this. I am prepared for anything (outside of a pull away nd victory) but I expect georgia to win and us to be super frustrated.
Oh yeah, Thorson tore his knee in the SEC Championship. Nice catch!
Smart’s sideline antics are ridiculous. I wonder if having non-SEC officials, will stifle some of that. They would be less likely to be intimidated by him, I would think.
Sweet Jesus, he’s only 49? Woof. I know I have a distorted sense of self-image (I constantly think that collegiate athletes look younger than me, a 40-year old), but man, he looks 25 years older than me. Hard to believe we could have kids on the same soccer team.
* (I constantly think that collegiate athletes look OLDer than me, a 40-year old),
I’m hoping the 24 days off plays in our favor. Saban has talked about the biggest problem with a long lay off is the drop off in tackling since it’s hard to replicate it in practice. Additionally Stockton not being able to see live rounds in 24 days as a new qb also helps.
I just think Notre Dame is too locked in right now.
I’m prepared to be downvoted to hell for this, but do we really think we’re going to get a fair shake from the zebras in this one? It’s just something I’ve been wondering. We play physical (it’s football) but calls have gone both ways on us this year, it just hasn’t cost us yet. I feel uneasy about the ref aspect.
So, where are the refs from?
It’s being refed by Michael VanderVelde and crew from the Big 12.
According to FootballZebras, in addition to the Big 12, VanderVelde does spring pro leagues and refereeing development in the offseason (not common). His resume comes across as a guy trying to do the job at a high, professional level.
Thanks very much, good info. Reassuring a bit. Better than SEC or ACC or Big Ten!
I feel like ND has received it’s fair share of bad calls this year. Off the top of my head, there was a “late hit” called on an ND LB for hitting a QB immediately after they threw the ball (maybe GT or Navy), fake punt return dubiously called back against UVA, a terrible spot on a 4th & 1 (or maybe it was 3rd & 1 leading to a punt) early in the year. I’m sure there are a few more, I don’t watch/pay attention/remember games very well.
My biggest concern on how refs call the game will be the “handsy” tendency of our DBs.
Biagi named Football Scoops Special Teams Coordinator of the Year.
Hmmm. Let’s hope any trick plays work tomorrow!
From a fan perspective the biggest thing about this game is just how different the build up feels than 2012, 2018, and 2020. We’re no longer a team on a miracle season just happy to be here, ND expected themselves to be at this stage. I think back on Manti’s comments about being in the tunnel before the Alabama game and I just cannot envision a reality where this Irish squad is intimidated like that one was. Notre Dame’s top flight talent is as close to teams like UGA it has ever been in my life and you can give the ball to guys like Love and he can do things that Cierre Wood, George Atkinson, Dexter WIlliams, Tony Jones Jr etc. never could in these kinds of games.
Notre Dame has a chance to completely turn the national perspective of this program on its head with just 4 more quarters of fuck you football in front of God and everyone tomorrow night. It’s never felt more do or die than this and I think ND does a helluva lot more doing than dying in a low scoring rock em sock em robot fight in nawlins
Irish – 17
Dawgs – 13
My heart is totally with you on this. But my concerns are both our OL and DL. That’s where the injuries to both lines have brought us to a fragile condition. Folks have been forgetting it all started in fall camp, and as Al Golden said in his presser, it hasn’t let up. If our runners can’t make it to the LOS, and theirs get 4-5 yards push, it’s gonna be a real struggle.
The only thing that can save us is true genuine ND fighting spirit, which to his credit MF has been pushing all the right levers to foster. Like tlndma says, this team has been showing that. We’ll see.
Really a hard game to predict given Stockton. If Beck were healthy I’d take Georgia with some confidence. If Mills (and Morrison… and Traore… and Botelho) were healthy I’d take ND with confidence… but, for posterity’s sake:
Georgia 24
ND 17
Hope I’m wrong!
First of all, Bonne Annee (aka Happy New Year) to everyone. And very many thanks for this site!
Is anybody going to be at the game? Last night as the clock struck midnight I realized it was 51 years exactly since being in that old crappy (but soulful) Tulane Stadium Eric mentioned, right behind Tom Clements throwing the 3rd and 8 pass to our 2nd string TE to seal another win vs the Tide. So I was hoping at least one 18 Striper was going to be there tonight, to make more noise on my behalf. Now of course I hope they weren’t involved in that awful mass casualty mess.
Anyway, again, best to all. Go Irish!
Thank you Noise for the well-wish. Same to you. Agreed this site (and Eric) are the best source of ND football news. Looking forward to tonight’s game. Love the young men who represent ND…but why is it that I don’t like/respect Kirby Smart?
I’ll be watching via AFN on Central European Time (game starts 0230 here). I was stationed in NOLA 2002-2005; shocking to see the news regarding the Bourbon Street attack last night. I was also stationed in Savannah 1997-2002; which is another great city, but here’s to HCMF and the boys going General Sherman on the Dawgs, winning by 2+ scores. Go Irish.
Good feeling to see your handle, brings me back to our Dublin game last year! We’ll be watching the same way.