In part 1 of our first 18Stripes basketball roundtable, we looked at the rising seniors and juniors. In this part, we try to break out our crystal ball and project performance for the younger end of Mike Brey’s roster.
The sophomore class of Rex Pflueger, Matt Ryan, and Elijah Burns had very different freshmen experiences. What do you see among those three?
Eric B: Rex and Ryan need to work on the other player’s specialty. Rex was obviously limited on offense, but was a great lock-down defender. Ryan had a great stroke, but often struggled guarding athletic ACC wings. If Rex can step up on offense, and Ryan can do so on D, both will play a big part in ND’s plan this season. Burns is an interesting case coming off a redshirt season. There’s obviously a large hole in the front court, and depending how he looks against Torres and Gebben in practice, he may have a chance to crack the rotation behind Bonzie.
Patrick: Rex Pflueger was a very pleasant surprise after cracking the rotation last year, providing huge hustle and defense. Frankly, I think he’s a huge plus any time he is on the floor simply because of his hard work and athleticism, but if he can develop a 3, he will be tough to keep off the court. He passed up a lot of open looks last year, and if he develops confidence shooting corner 3’s, look out. Matt Ryan simply needs to develop consistency. He is one of the most exciting players on the Irish roster just because his beautiful stroke makes it seem like he could rain 5-6 deep balls on any given night. If he can avoid the slumps he hit at times last year, a small ball lineup with him at 4 and Bonzie at 5 could be unbelievably fun. I’m very excited to see what Elijah Burns can do in the non-conference season, but I still feel like his role will be determined by how well his elder teammates (Geben, Torres) perform. There are a lot of guys competing for time at the 4 spot, and he might end up being on the outs this year.
Joe: I liked what I saw in the absolutely minuscule sample from Elijah Burns. We’re going to need a wide body with energy to step up, and it could certainly be him. If Brey embraces the position-less nature of modern basketball this season, Rex Pfluger could be poised to dominate. He’s comfortable with the ball in his hands and as the game slowed down for him later in the year, he demonstrated flashes of being able to contribute on the offensive end. In bigger line-up’s he could pair with Vasturia as a very long/strong back-court duo. If he starts to put the ball on the floor and harness those prodigious hops to finish at the rim, the #dunksdulac meme might get some new highlight videos. Ryan came on like gangbusters and faded. This can’t be surprising to anyone. This is a tough leap for anyone to make. I’ll take the optimist’s view with Ryan and I predict very good things in his sophomore year. I think he takes and makes significantly more 3’s while giving excellent defensive bulk and rebounding. Now, if we could only talk about his dorm options.
alstein: I think, of anyone, Ryan is the most likely to make a real leap in his sophomore year. He needs to do one thing really well and already seems to have a penchant for doing everything else at a respectable level, even defending opposing 4s. Pairing him with Beachem would give Brey some real Golden State-esque lineup options, and having them both averaging around 42-44% would look really, really dangerous.
Rex looked the part in very small doses last season, but 1) foul trouble is always going to be a problem for him, especially given the new, very-inconsistently-applied rules. And 2) I think if he were just handed the keys to the offense, he could be very, very effective, but I don’t think that’s going to happen with Gibbs, Vasturia, and even Farrell likely in front of him as lead guard options.
And Burns, I love what he brings to the table. I think he can be a 10 minute guy to bring some skill and athleticism (even if a tad undersized) in the post this year, even despite the lack of experience. He’s the only guy that looks like a complete player in the post, so it’s hard to imagine him not making an impact at all off the bench. The big men minutes remains one of the biggest mysteries entering this season.
What are your expectations for the incoming freshmen? Do John Mooney and Temple Gibbs step on campus ready to contribute?
Eric B: I’m not as familiar with recruiting as others here, but everything I’ve heard about Temple Gibbs has been outstanding. While I don’t think he’ll start from day one, Brey has given big minutes to freshman PGs in the past, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s playing major minutes and potentially starting by the mid-point of the season.
Patrick: My enthusiasm for Temple Gibbs is unbridled. Irish fans have been spoiled with Jerian Grant and Demetrius Jackson running the offense the past couple years, and while Matt Farrell is a decent player, he doesn’t quite excite like his predecessors. Gibbs should certainly get minutes right away, and if all goes according to plan, I think he is our starting point guard for ACC play. Mooney was a nice get for Brey. I expect him to get a shot early on in what might be a more-or-less open competition for front-court minutes. Nicola Djogo, on the other hand, looks to be completely blocked at the wing, and he seems like a decent bet to redshirt.
Joe: I have an irrational hope that Temple Gibbs comes in like the second coming of Tory Jackson from day one and runs this team to perfection. I don’t expect it, but I’d be lying if I said I haven’t imagined it lying in my bed at night. With the balance of this roster having great shooting/slashing guys, a floor general PG willing to play defense and move the ball is just what the doctor ordered. Whether that’s Gibbs or Farrell might be different in the beginning, middle, and end of the season ahead. I don’t follow recruiting well enough to know if this fantasy has a chance in hell, but I like it. Same with Mooney. I could see him contributing, and at a listed 240 lbs, he comes in ready to bang up front. He seems like a guy that will benefit from spending time with both new Irish assistants. Humph showing him how to dominate inside, and Ayers refining an already lovely shooting stroke. I love the idea of this guy, but history says he’s probably a year away.
alstein: I love TJ Gibbs. He is a complete guard without the top-end length and athleticism, suppressing his recruiting rankings more than they should. He is, perhaps, the greatest player in his great high school’s history and just has a tremendous feel for the game, around the rim, getting to the FT line, getting his teammates involved. I’d like to think he is instant impact and even finds his way into the starting lineup by conference season, but that’s easy to say from high school and AAU videos. So let’s slow our roll a little bit with him, I guess. But the first signs of his potential on the court, and I’ll be picketing outside of Purcell until he’s named a starter.
Mooney, I expect nothing from this season. A guy who sat out AAU ball the better part of the last two seasons and already plays in an underwhelming high school league/area should probably not be counted on to impact the ACC. He’s got a nice future but probably stagnated in his development and will probably be in for a rude awakening this summer.
Look for more coverage from your favorite authors in the near future. We’ll be discussing former Irish players in the NBA and former Irish players on the Notre Dame coaching staff. Stay tuned for more.
I want Ryan to keep shooting any time he sees the rim. His volume from 3 has to be high to make up for what he lacks on defense.
I’m hoping Burns gets some playing time, and Brey goes with a big man rotation this year. I know he likes to stick with the hot hands, but I don’t see a big guy who will dominate any games (outside of Bonzie), so rotating through the bigs and keeping them fresh could be a way to get an advantage.
Gibbs is going to be great. As was mentioned, his size really kept him lower on the rankings than he should have been; his brother was always a guy for Pitt who seemed to be much better than he should be. Gibbs will be that same guy for us; I really expect him starting by Christmas.
I’m not 100% sure he’s going to be bad on defense his whole career. Defending is such a step up in physicality and speed that young guys struggle, but he’s strong and smart. I think he takes a step forward in that department (and by think, I mean desperately hope).
That said, I want him to be a high volume shooter. That stroke is so pure. He and Beachem could stretch defenses with 2 of the prettiest jumpers on the planet.
I can definitely see him improving, but I can’t see him becoming anything other than average on that end (and I think it will take all 4 years for him to even get to average). Defensive improvement just doesn’t seem to be something that Brey puts as much of a focus on as other coaches. It’s clearly worked out for him, and I doubt that changes.
Gibbs, Vasturia, and Farrell really need to create penetration this year. Beachem and Ryan are both going to be absolutely fantastic spot up shooters from the outside. However, I haven’t yet seen them demonstrate an ability to free themselves up off the ball. But if they can spot up and stretch the floor, defenses are really going to have to pick their poison. I just hope that means Vasturia can get back to finishing at the rim. I’m not sure Farrell can, but he’s shown an ability to find open guys once he gets inside. The wildcard is then Gibbs; can he handle the transition to a more physical college game. I think (or perhaps hope) he can.
Going in reverse of what you wrote…
I think Bonz and whoever plays the 2nd big benefits from Farrell’s ability to get past his defender. When Farrell turns the corner, his options will be to kick back or opposite for the open 3 or drop a dime to a big as his man rotates. Hard to see him finishing at the rim with regularity.
Humphrey played with a lot of effort on defense and on he glass. I’m hoping some of that energy rubs off. Ryan is a guy who could really round out his stretch 4 game with some help from Hump.
Joe, you mention liking what you’ve seen from Burns, but what sample is that? He hasn’t played a minute, correct?
Also, In general, what do you make of our seeming inability to recruit big men? We haven’t gotten a top 100 prospect there since Auguste and you’d think Brey would have an easy sell with all the playing time and and guards that will find you with great passes.
Burns did play a bit in both exhibition games last season. The box scores show he was solid if unspectacular in both games.
Bingo. That’s more solid homer irrational hope, but I did like the way he moved and he was clearly intense. It was limited time, but he moved with far more urgency and fluidity than anything we’ve seen from Geben.
Gibbs is bound to play 25+ minutes a game this year isn’t he? I know he’s given us key moments, but no one sees Farrell as a starter right?
Colson / Torres / Geben
Ryan / Burns / Mooney
Beachem / Rex / Djogo
Vasturia / Rex
Gibbs / Farrell
That’s the projected depth chart right? Man, Onions better stay healthy
With all the rational caveats that hoops depth is different than football depth, I have to think that’s fairly accurate in January. Probably not for November. It is a little hard to have Rex “behind” Onions, because there will be times where they could be the primary ball handlers in a bigger back-court configuration. Steve played PG for his AAU teams and is confident on the dribble. Rex also looked confident with the ball in the open court, so either of them could handle against lower pressure teams where Brey wanted to go big at the guards.
What do you think Brey does with Farrell? Was he just riding the hot hand in March and now he’ll end up ceding most of his minutes to the younger, more talented guys in 2016? Or does Farrell get the leadership and intangibles nod and play 30+ minutes a night?
I’m guessing it will land somewhere in between around 20 minutes a night.
Like everyone else, I think we need Gibbs to be very good out of the gate. Ball security is a big concern as is the ability for our guards to draw the defense by driving the paint.
Love the basketball talk in July!
I think Brey genuinely likes and trusts Farrell. Gibbs is going to have to be great to pass him. Brey had never shown a propensity to get young guys in for the sake of getting them in. If Gibbs plays it will be because he legitimately earned it.
I think that’s true, except with his PG recruits. He tends to throw them out there as soon as he can. I would be surprised if Gibbs isn’t the same way. I think Farrell contributes as a role player, just like last year.
Well, I like Farrell a lot more as an energy guy off the bench. That’s where I hope he ends up. A lot of the very young PGs had to step in because of injury or other issues.
Best case is that Gibbs is so good that he can handle a big load, but that’s still not going to be 40 mpg, Farrell is going to play.
My prediction is that the starting lineup eventually becomes: 1) Gibbs 2) Beachem 3) Vasturia 4) Ryan 5) Burns. Bonzie 6th man bc he’s 1) not tall enough to play the 5 and 2) not a consistent enough shooter from range to justify playing the 4
Also, Matt Ryan is switching to Dunne hall next year – much closer to facilities.
This makes me so happy. I have nothing against Carroll or any Vermin current or past, but damn, that’s not a smart place to put your valuable hoops guys. That’s gotta add a few points to the shooting percentage this year, no?
That, combined with the experience of the ACC grind, will hopefully lessen the risk of getting heavy legs, which definitely took a tool on him during ACC play. Yeah, Carroll is a great place – actually that’s where I’m currently living – but it’s so tough being so far away from the Gug and the joyce center, especially for our bball and football players.
Also, on a recruiting note, Dj harvey is taking 1/3 official visits to ND, so that’s a great start to the fall recruiting season.