As we awaited the results of the college football playoff rankings and seeding for the first 12-team tournament in history many were hoping a team from the south would have to travel up to South Bend just a few days before Christmas. Well, we got our wish. Sort of. Instead of Alabama, we’ll see another red and white team travel from the southern part of the Hoosier state to a nighttime playoff game inside Notre Dame Stadium.

As part of the playoff television contracts, the Irish home game will be broadcast on ABC and ESPN instead of NBC. This will make it the first Notre Dame home game to be broadcast on something other than NBC since the 24-21 Senior Day loss to Penn State in 1990.

Indiana (+7) at Notre Dame

Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana
Date: Friday, December 20, 2024
Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV: ABC/ESPN

There wasn’t a single person on earth who would’ve predicted Indiana would make the playoffs this year. There was brief hope for the Hoosiers in 2019-20 under Tom Allen with a 14-7 record but that era sputtered to an end with 27 losses over the next 3 seasons. In just the first year under Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers have set the school record for wins and perhaps secured one of their best 3 seasons in school history–right up there with a 1967 Rose Bowl appearance against USC and O.J. Simpson, plus a 9-0-1 finish in 1945.

Vegas Corner

Once the matchup was announced on Sunday, December 8th the books opened with Notre Dame favored by 8.5 points. That line came down half a point pretty quickly and had settled in at 7.5 points in favor of the Irish before another drop to 7 points even later this week.

Weather Report

A little bit of snow is in the forecast for the morning into the early afternoon but any accumulations under an inch should be swept away by kickoff. Temperatures will be hovering right around freezing throughout the day then drop into the low 20’s closer to game time. The wind is expected to be around 10-15 mph coming from the NNW to the right Touchdown Jesus.

Series History

Rather remarkably, despite being an in-state program with a strong academic background, Indiana has not faced Notre Dame on the football field since 1991. The last meeting in South Bend gave us THAT Irv Smith touchdown reception* in one of the most impressive scores in Irish history. It was the epitome of rumblin’ bumblin’ stumblin’ into the end zone. On that bright sunny afternoon, Notre Dame won 49-27 and currently holds a 6-game win streak in the series.

*If you’re astute, this was also the first home game broadcast on the new NBC deal. To mark the occasion this week, Notre Dame has posted the entire broadcast of this game from 1991, complete with Dick Enberg and Bill Walsh on the call. 

Notre Dame and Indiana have been football strangers in modern times. 

The series did start 4-3-1 in Indiana’s favor prior to WWI but since then Notre Dame holds a commanding 20-1-0 record against the Hoosiers. But again, this series has been all but extinguished until resurrected this Friday. The above meeting from 1991 was the only matchup with Indiana between 1958 and today. I’m sure there was a reason (history suggests Indiana sided with Michigan on a few too many Big Ten hissy fits and blackballing attempts) but playing so many in-state games against Purdue instead of Indiana was certainly a choice for Notre Dame.

Coaching Staff

Curt Cignetti, a native of Pittsburgh and former West Virginia quarterback, had a slow rise through the coaching ranks spending his first 22 seasons coaching quarterbacks at Davidson, Rice, Temple, Pitt, and NC State before joining Nick Saban’s first staff at Alabama where he coached receivers and coordinated recruiting. He curiously took his first head coaching position at Indiana University of Pennsylvania at the D-II level for 6 years before 2 seasons at FCS Elon and then 5 more years at James Madison.

He became a nationally recognized name with the Dukes going 52-9 overall and 31-4 in conference play taking James Madison from the FCS to FBS level in the process. After his hot start in year 1 with the Hoosiers, the school announced a hefty 8-year contract extension through the 2032 season worth $72 million overall.

Cignetti is a grumpy sideline coach.

Cignetti retained only 1 assistant coach in Bloomington with offensive line coach Bob Bostad staying in town. Three new coaches came to Indiana (S/DB coach Ola Adams from Penn State analyst, CB coach Rob Ojong from Charlotte, DE coach Buddha Williams from Colorado State) this off-season while he brought 7 more assistants with him from James Madison including defensive coordinator Bryant Haines and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, plus former Notre Dame starter Pat Kuntz (DT coach) and former notable Irish opponent Tino Sunseri (he took the UCLA OC job and will be leaving Indiana after their playoff run ends) coaching quarterbacks.

Portal

Indiana lost a ton of players in the coaching turnover this past off-season but loaded up with just as many replacements from the transfer portal. Here’s a list of all the impact transfers that made their way to Bloomington this year:

QB Kurtis Rourke – Ohio
RB Ty Son Lawton – James Madison
RB Kaelon Black – James Madison
RB Justice Ellison – Wake Forest
RB Elijah Green – North Carolina
WR Miles Cross – Ohio
WR Elijah Sarratt – James Madison
WR Ke’Shawn Williams – Wake Forest
WR Myles Price – Texas Tech
TE Zach Horton – James Madison
LG Tyler Stephens – James Madison
RT Trey Wedig – Wisconsin
DE Mikail Kamara – James Madison
DT James Carpenter – James Madison
DT Tyrique Tucker – James Madison
DT CJ West – Kent State
LB Jailin Walker – James Madison
LB Aiden Fisher – James Madison
CB D’Angelo Ponds – James Madison
CB Cedarius Doss – Austin Peay
S Terry Jones – Old Dominion
S Shawn Asbury – Old Dominion
LS Mark Langston – Georgia Southern

That list is truly wild. There were a handful more transfers that came to Indiana as well, but they haven’t made an impact and a couple have already left school for another go-around in the portal.

Top Men

QB Kurtis Rourke – Originally a 2019 low 3-star recruit out of Canada, Rourke stayed with the Ohio Bobcats for 5 seasons before transferring this off-season to Indiana. He tore his ACL late in 2022 but decided to return to Ohio after speculation he would be a top transfer candidate.

Rourke has been a huge part of Indiana’s turnaround under Cignetti. 

This year, Rourke missed the Washington game and needed surgery on his throwing hand thumb. He’s thrown for over 10,000 yards in his career with 77 touchdowns and just 20 interceptions.

WR Elijah Sarratt – The redshirt sophomore started his career at St. Francis then moved to James Madison last season where he finished 2nd in the Sun Belt with 1,191 receiving yards. He now leads Indiana in most receiving categories and his 890 yards is 5th best in the Big Ten for 2024.

WR Omar Cooper – A rare homegrown recruit for Indiana these days! Cooper is a dynamic athlete with big-play potential. He may not be a steady presence on Friday but his 21.15 yards per reception leads the Big Ten by a decent margin and he’s scored 6 touchdowns on just 27 receptions. He’s someone Notre Dame will want to keep in front of them.

DE Mikail Kamara – A stocky 6’1″ and 265 pounds, Kamara is a quick and strong pass rusher who plays at defensive end for the Hoosiers. He started his career in 2020 at James Madison and came over with Cignetti this off-season. He has 21.5 sacks in just 29 career games and was tied for 2nd in the Big Ten in sacks this year.

CB D’Angelo Ponds – Coming off a freshman All-American season in 2023 with James Madison, Ponds joined the caravan to Bloomington and just finished a 1st-team All-Big Ten season at cornerback. He’s only listed at 5’9″ and 170 pounds but he has totaled an impressive 22 pass breakups in his short career.

Good Matchup

Notre Dame’s Run Game vs. Indiana’s Front

Looking at the stats this is strength vs. strength heading into Friday night. We know Notre Dame can run the ball extremely well (1st among power programs in rushing average!) while Indiana has some gaudy run defense stats themselves. The Hoosiers are 1st nationally in rushing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed per game, while being 2nd nationally in rushing average allowed.

However, things are not as rosy when strength of schedule is factored into the equation. Indiana’s 2024 OOA (strength of Opponent Offenses Faced) is a dismal 77th, the lowest among any defenses ranked in the FEI Top 40 rankings. This Hoosiers defense is extremely quick and will get up field with plenty of tenacity (t-16th nationally in tackles for loss) but I think they have a distinct lack of length up front and there will be opportunities where Notre Dame uses its leverage to spring big runs on Indiana or protect long enough for a deep completion or two.

Bad Matchup

Rourke’s Efficiency 

Again, strength versus strength! Indiana’s running game and offensive line are fine overall (although friend of 18S Jamie Uyeyama has a great article on why IU’s offensive line might be in trouble following an Achilles injury to left guard Drew Evans). Both top tailbacks Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawson run extremely hard but aren’t the type of athletes that should be able to carry their offense in a game like this.

However, Rourke is an extremely experienced and efficient quarterback and if they will win, surely it’ll be due to his arm and decision making. He leads the nation in passer rating, although Notre Dame will be hoping they can replicate Michigan’s, and especially Ohio State’s, success against Rourke where he had a combined 114.38 passer rating and a horrid time against the Buckeyes.

Special Teams

Indiana uses redshirt freshman kicker Nicolas Radicic, although sparingly. He’s only attempted 10 field goals this season with 9 makes. This is a good time to mention the Hoosiers have converted 54 touchdowns on 66 red zone attempts–that 81.8% success rate leads the nation.

Punter James Evans is from New Zealand and in his 4th year of starting. The Hoosiers virtually do not return kickoffs with only 2 attempts over their last 9 games. Starting slot receiver and Texas Tech transfer Myles Price returns punts and is a versatile playmaker with 3,070 career all-purpose yards.

Prediction

On the surface, Indiana should be happy to be in this position and their fans have to be ecstatic to even make the playoffs with one of their best seasons in school history. Normally, with such a perceived talent deficiency this would lead to bad things once the ball snaps. Yet, I think Cignetti is a bulldog of a coach who has done a really good job motivating and having his players ready to play at a higher level in such a short amount of time.

The one thing that jumps off the screen with Indiana, particularly on defense, is that they are playing with a feisty edge and have improved a ton in upping their physicality.

FEI 2024 RANKINGS

They really get after it on defense and can be very aggressive making plays in the backfield. Many have noted the poor offenses Indiana has faced and that’s fair. Still, they’ve done an impressive job going out and dominating a lot of those teams and taking it to opponents with a stifling amount of havoc.

Notre Dame matches up well against the Hoosiers but they’ll have to be careful not to get off schedule when they have the ball. I would shy away from screens or short passes where the Irish are asking receivers to take the ball from behind the line of scrimmage for positive gains–Indiana might win the majority of those battles. Instead, rely on the size advantage up front through the running game and slowly work in some passing opportunities in safe areas of the field.

Indiana’s standard 4-2-5 defense with a linebacker/DE hybrid “Stud” pass rusher. 

This type of approach will hopefully wear down Indiana.

I’ve seen plenty of cockiness from Irish fans over this matchup and in part, I get it. Thirteen months ago, this Indiana program was finishing up a 9-loss season with a defeat to Purdue and the Boilermakers haven’t beaten a FBS team since that day! We’re talking about the power conference team with the 2nd worst winning percentage of all-time and among FBS teams with at least 100 games played only 9 programs are worse historically than Indiana.

Yes, there’s a feeling that the Irish simply cannot lose this game. You can’t lose at home to Indiana in the first round of the playoffs.

On the flip side, if you trust FEI enough this would be, by a pretty decent margin, the best win of the Marcus Freeman era. A lot has been made about Freeman’s 11-5 record against ranked teams and it was highlighted again with his new contract extension in recent days. However, only 2 of those wins are against teams that finished ranked, with TBD rankings on victories over Army, Navy, Louisville, and Texas A&M this season. We also have Vegas setting a very competitive line which should keep even the most optimistic fan a little humble.

I’m prepared for a handful of stuffs from Indiana’s defense and a handful of plays from the Indiana offense that will create some problems for Notre Dame. I don’t think this is a game where the Irish jump out to a 21-3 lead and it stays relatively safe the rest of the way. There’s also the possibility Jeremiyah Love is not 100% and we’ll see even less explosiveness than expected mixed with a cold weather game experience. There’s so much pressure on Notre Dame to win and they’ll have to find a way for their talent to take over without screwing things up with bad punts, missed field goals, brutally timed interceptions, and things of that nature.

Indiana 23

Notre Dame 28