With a week off and some chaos at the top of the ACC standings, Irish fans were no doubt hoping for a strong performance on Sunday night. While it wasn’t exactly Notre Dame’s strongest effort of the season, the Irish were able to hold on and get the 4-point win over Georgia Tech.
This was a little revenge for the Irish after losing to the Yellow Jackets down in Atlanta earlier this season on a buzzer-beating layup by Josh Okogie. The ESPNU broadcast was nice enough to remind us of that play a few times throughout the game. Regardless, this series has become quite the rivalry, with a tight finish nearly every game since Notre Dame joined the ACC:
2017: GT by 2, ND by 4
2016: ND by 8, GT by 1
2015: ND by 7 in 2OT, ND by 3
2014: GT by 5, ND by 3
Notre Dame now stands at 11-5 in the ACC and in a tie for 2nd with Florida State and Louisville. More on that later, but let’s get into my thoughts:
Bonzie to the Rescue
The man is an ACC PoY contender for a reason, but there is little doubt that the Irish drop this one if not for Bonzie Colson. The junior big man had game-highs in both points (20) and rebounds (11) en route to yet another double-double. Colson’s first team status, at the very least, should be just about sealed. I don’t have a strong opinion about who should be PoY between the likely first-teamers (Colson, Justin Jackson, Luke Kennard, Donovan Mitchell, and John Collins), but just getting him on that first team would be a fantastic accolade for his season.
Despite remaining close throughout, the Irish took the lead for good midway through the first half following a Bonzie-led run. With the game tied at 20, Colson spent the next couple minutes going on a personal 7-0 run. He put back his own miss, buried a three, and tipped in a fastbreak lay-in off a Steve Vasturia miss. It was the most energized the building was the whole evening and was the spurt that allowed the Irish to keep Georgia Tech at just about arm’s length for the remainder of the game.
It was a little disappointing that the offense couldn’t get Colson more than 6 field goal attempts in the second half, especially when things were stalling out. When no one else is on, Bonzie has got to at least touch the ball every possession, even if you have to force it into him in the post.
Time to Panic?
OK, panic is probably not the right word. This was a win after all, and one against an opponent that just seems to give Notre Dame fits. But surely we should be concerned, right? Honestly, writing this recap the morning after allows me to be a lot more calm than usual here.
For one, this was an 8-10 point win masquerading as a 4-point win. The Irish had extended their lead to 10 with under 90 seconds left, and last minute weirdness just set in. Georgia Tech finally hit a couple threes. Notre Dame missed three FTs, including one front-end (rust following the week off?). That finish was out of character for this team and certainly left everyone feeling a little worse about things. Would we feel all that negative about an 8-point win? Probably not.
It also just seems like Georgia Tech has a great approach to the Irish offense. Specifically, they are happy to pack the lane, even around the free throw line, to prevent the guards from getting much penetration. Notre Dame had to rely on swinging the ball around the perimeter and settling for deep looks more than they’d probably like. Some nights, you’re just off. The Yellow Jackets stuck to their game plan, and for the second time this season, it worked wonders in neutralizing an otherwise very good Irish offense.
To be clear many of their 29 looks from three were quite open, and there are very few that I have an issue with taking. But no one could get in a groove. Even just a 4-9 from VJ Beachem or a couple more hits from Vasturia or TJ Gibbs or Matt Ryan, and I bet things look a whole lot different. The Irish were just off all over the place, as their 10-28 from inside the arc was quite poor. I’m not sure they hit a mid-range shot all game.
I’m inclined to think this was a bit of a fluke, plus an opponent in Georgia Tech that has the Irish’s number on that end of the floor. Notre Dame had scored at least 81 points in each of their four straight wins coming into Sunday night. Let’s not forget, the team two years ago lost that ugly game to Syracuse in their third-to-last regular season game at home. They turned out just fine. I’m not going to jump overboard quite yet (something, something, doth protest too much).
Best Backcourt in America?
When things were going really well earlier this conference season, Mike Brey jumped on his own backcourt’s bandwagon. However, Steve Vasturia is averaging 13 points per game during the current 5-game win streak. Fine, yes, but far from the player who led this team through their initial 5-game win streak early in conference play. Of note, Vasturia is just 6 for 24 (25%) from 3-point range during the streak. He was also 0 for 9 in the two games prior to that (ouch). His 14 for 23 inside the arc and and 19 for 21 from the stripe are still very good, so let’s not go too far overboard. But it’s hard not to think that Notre Dame will need that three-point shot to come back a little during postseason play if we want to see this team accomplish what it has these last couple seasons.
And Matt Farrell. On paper, not bad at all. 15.6 points per game over the last five. 28-to-14 assist-to-turnover rate. 15-36 (42%) from three, 19-23 (83%) from the line. But the eye-test seems worse for him. He’s putting himself (and the offense) into a lot of bad situations, forcing drives and passes without much hope for a good outcome. The defense was a major liability again (Tadric Jackson wishes he could play Notre Dame every game). Is this a little harsh given his numbers? Yes, probably. But he’s the point guard for Notre Dame. This team and offense NEEDS him to play well and be much more steady.
Most of us think the offense could really benefit from switching Vasturia and Farrell in the offense a bit more often. Vasturia can’t shoot right now, and Farrell constantly gets in trouble trying to drive. Why not give Vasturia more responsibility initiating things, maybe with a few more ball screens? That also allows Farrell sag into the corner to shoot, where he has been unbelievably consistent this season. Seems like this could give a little jolt to the offense to trade their responsibilities more frequently.
Down the Stretch
Notre Dame is firmly in position for yet another ACC Tournament double-bye. What an accomplishment that would be for Mike Brey and his program to grab that for a third straight year. The Irish control their own destiny in this regard. If they win their remaining two games, that would give them the double-bye and likely a 2nd place finish. Would be truly amazing.
That would be a tall order, however. In the good news column, the Irish host bottom-feeder Boston College. Not to take them too lightly, but that’s the most likely win on any contender’s schedule. The bad news? Visiting Louisville at the Yum, where they just dismantled Syracuse and have yet to lose since the calendar turned to 2017. Even splitting those two games to finish 12-6 gives the Irish plenty of scenarios for a top-4 finish.
If Duke loses to FSU or UNC (in Chapel Hill), the Irish would be safe. If FSU loses to Duke and Miami, the Irish would be safe. Things are looking good for this to work out well for Notre Dame. But let’s not take anything for granted. The Irish must beat BC (and should do so handily, otherwise the panic meter might jump up quite a bit). Notre Dame could also use that win at Louisville for more than just ACC seeding.
The Irish don’t quite have a marquee road win, although wins at Miami and Virginia Tech are very good. Also, their 2-6 against the KenPom top 25 isn’t great. It would do wonders for Notre Dame’s NCAA seeding to grab that win as their best of the season and give them a very legitimate shot at a top 4 seed line. Obviously, we are all hoping for a quality win or two in Brooklyn anyway, but a true road win over a top 10 team in March? That’s probably worth a seed line all by itself.
I won’t even get into the possible opponent scenarios because that’s just too crazy to even think about right now. Let’s just see the Irish win their final two and worry about match-ups next week. It would be truly amazing to see this team finish only a game worse than that team two years ago. Remember, everyone agreed that year that the ACC Was a Major Disappointment. This year, it’s looking at 10-11 NCAA bids. 13 wins might be at the top of Mike Brey’s best regular seasons in South Bend. Here’s hoping!
I saw a mock bracket yesterday that had us in a 5-12 game against Wichita State (KemPom’s #10 team overall). That would be 🙁
Ugh. They’re going to do that, aren’t they, just so they can yell nonstop about the game two years ago. I’m already pre-furious.
Ha, I don’t see it happening. Wichita State seems safely higher than a 12. Bracket Matrix has them as an average of a 10 seed, which is likely to improve if they win the MVC Tournament (especially if one of their wins is over Illinois State).
There are definitely some tricky 12 seeds, as usual, but I don’t think there will be any that are quite so unfair.
Frustrating game, but I never felt like we were truly in danger. Definitely was played in more of the style that Georgia Tech preferred.
We had several great looks at 3 that rimmed out, which would have helped to blow the game open. The lack of ability to finish at the rim was more disconcerting. Farrell seems like he’s not even trying to score anymore on drives, always looking to kick. We seem deathly afraid of shot blockers and try to always do an acrobatic reverse when the and-one opportunity is there. Maybe I’m off on this, but I’d like to see someone other than Bonzie finish a physical and-one around the rim.
Bonzie definitely saved us like you said. Every time I look at the stat line, I’m amazed Farrell doesn’t have more turnovers. But he wasn’t the only one, Steve, Rex and Torres all had some pretty cringe-worthy giveaways, thankfully GT had more.
Looking forward, I like where we’re at. We split the next 2, go into the ACC tourney as the 4 seed with a match with the 5 seed Duke. I want another shot at those guys.
If we win that bumps us to a 4 seed in the NCAA and could go even higher if we take down UNC. If we lose, probably takes us to a 6 seed (which is perfectly fine). Trying to avoid that 12 seed, although they look pretty weak this year with the lack of good mid major teams, some of them would not have made it without auto qualifying (UT Arlington, Middle Tennessee).
Of course what probably happens is we go 1-1, fall to the 5 seed in the ACC, lose to Pitt in our first game. Then the committee rubs our noses in our non-conference schedule and drops us to an 8 seed.
According to KP, 12% of our offensive attempts are blocked. Putting that at the 335th (of 351) rate in the country. I could see where you’d develop a little shyness at the rim.
Prepare for the ultimate in frustration when ND finishes higher than Duke, beats them in the ACCT and gets a lower seed in the tourney 😉
Because of tiebreakers, Duke is pretty much locked out of the four and five spots. If they beat UNC, they probably jump up to three since they have the advantage over us and FSU. If they lose to UNC, they probably fall to six or lower because they lose tiebreakers to VT and Miami. The most likely scenario is us going 1-1, and getting the VT or Miami in the quarters before getting UNC in the semifinals. If you want to play with potential scenarios, this is a fun tool. http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb
That’s nifty, thanks for sharing. I forgot about Miami having that win over UNC, which puts them over Duke in a tie.
Looks like the only way Duke is at 5, is if Va Tech beats Miami tonight and then Wake wins at Va Tech. Not crazy, but not the most likely scenario.
I wonder how many of those shots are blocked Bonzie shots that he eventually puts back in. Still not a good stat for our confidence, you’re right.
There are 2 games left in the ACC Season and we could still win a share of the Conference Championship (and it wouldn’t even take an unbelievable series of events to make that happen). That’s ridiculous. Brey for president.
Yeah, who saw UVA beating UNC last night? They may have been looking ahead to Duke or just coasting since they’ve already clinched the 1 seed in the ACC.
Odds of beating BC * beating Louisville * Duke beating UNC
0.95*0.30*0.35 = comes out to about 10% based on my extremely scientific win probabilities
We’re gonna do our part and then Duke will lose the one game in history that we’ll actually be rooting for them.
Thought I saw Allen/Jefferson game-time decisions against FSU. If they are out, that certainly increases the chances of them losing. And hopefully that means both will be back against UNC.
Amazing crowd for a Sunday night! Even during the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, the crowd struggled for the “school-night” games against non-marquee opponents. I was worried about that when the student section was 1/2 full 30 minutes prior to the game, but man did the Legion show up!
5 minutes into the game students filled the upper bowl, which is usually only filled for UVA/UL/UNC/Duke. And s/o to the man in front wearing the Mike Brey mock turtleneck – it’s crazy how much the fanbase has changed on Mike Brey the last couple years (during the Go! Irish! chant, the students overtake the rest of the crowd and cheer Mike! Brey!). So many people, myself included, had serious doubts about our coach in 2014. Let’s keep rolling with the loosest coach in america!