Coming off the worst season in the Mike Brey era, the Irish men’s basketball team was not given an easy starting point to kick off the 2019-20 season. The #RunItBack season began in Chapel Hill, with the expanded 20 game ACC schedule pushing this big-time matchup to the very beginning of the slate.
This opener certainly did provide some opportunity, however. Despite its top 10 preseason ranking, UNC did lose its top 5 scorers from last season, and they’d be missing Sterling Manley and Brandon Robinson to injury. With the Irish returning essentially the same exact roster they had last season, there was hope that an early season clash would give an edge to experience over a still-gelling collection of freshmen, grad transfers, and role players.
Through a half, it certainly appeared that that could be the case. The Irish overcame an extremely slow first 7 minutes to quiet the local crowd en route to a 31-30 halftime lead. UNC was often careless with the ball, and the Irish backcourt of TJ Gibbs and Prentiss Hubb completely carried the offense, shooting 6-8 from deep in the half and combining for 22 of the 31 Irish points.
The second half briefly looked like it could be a Prentiss Hubb—Cole Anthony duel, but the Tar Heels’ #2 overall recruit completely took over about halfway into the 2nd. Behind a barrage of deep balls, UNC extended its lead from 2 to 11 in the blink of an eye, and the Irish were never able to truly scrape their way back into it.
Despite the disappointing final score, I think there were a lot of positives to be taken from this Irish performance. Simply leading at halftime on the road at a top 10 opponent should give this group immediate confidence that they can play with top competition, especially after being thoroughly outclassed by so many teams last year. The Irish made multiple runs throughout the game where the players were visibly pumped up, ramping up the intensity (especially on defense) in a way we just didn’t see last year.
At the same time, parts of this loss feel like a big missed opportunity. TJ Gibbs and Prentiss Hubb were both lights out in what had to be the best game they have ever played as a backcourt. If it weren’t for an absurd 34/11/5 game from a possibly transcendent talent, it really seemed like the Irish were going to hang around in this one to the end. A win would have not only put a national audience on notice with an early statement win, it also would’ve provided pleasing symmetry with the 2014-15 team’s early “we belong” upset win in Chapel Hill.
It was not to be, and the Irish will take an 0-1 record back to South Bend as they prepare for the nonconference schedule to kick off this weekend.
Prentiss Hubb: Breakout Performance?
One player who certainly shouldn’t hang his head after the Irish loss is Prentiss Hubb. After some preseason buzz about Hubb looking bigger and stronger, he went out and had the best game of his young career in a very difficult environment. His 22 points and 5 made 3PT shots both represented career highs.
Most impressive to me was just how comfortable Hubb looked at the helm of the Irish offense. After some early missed midrange shots, Hubb settled down and started making plays. He was consistently the only threatening-looking Irish player off the dribble, and he was smart with the ball, racking up 6 assists to only 1 turnover. He glided right to the rim for a couple of smooth finishes, showing nice touch off the glass. The 5-9 from deep is eye-grabbing and definitely nice to see, but his ability to penetrate on drives is what will truly make him so important to Notre Dame this year.
Heading into the season, I thought Hubb would be the Irish’s second best player next to preseason All-ACC member John Mooney. Not to get carried away after one game, but I think Hubb is checking all the boxes you’d want to see from the next great Irish guard. After missing the entirety of his senior high school season, Hubb had to grow into the college game throughout last season, starting slowly before putting up some big ACC performances. Mooney had a poor night, and I don’t want to downplay some of the heroic performances he put up last season, but his skillset just isn’t as influential as that which star point guard could provide. Having a double-double machine down low is nothing to take for granted, but if Hubb continues this trajectory, he could be the main driving force behind an Irish resurgence this year.
Other Notes
- Cole Anthony looks like a complete stud. I didn’t even think Hubb did a particularly poor job defending him; Anthony was just pouring in jumpers from everywhere. He had pretty much the ideal college debut, and it does sting a bit from a what-could-have-been perspective knowing that Notre Dame made his final 4 schools. On the bright side, Irish-target grad transfer Justin Pierce struggled in his UNC debut, shooting 1-6 from the field.
- TJ Gibbs had a fantastic game for the first time in what feels like forever. I’m hesitant to count on getting this version of TJ moving forward, but this is a guy who averaged 15 PPG on 40% 3P shooting as a sophomore. He still doesn’t look great around the rim, but if he can regain any semblance of his past shooting prowess, he’d provide a desperately-needed secondary weapon in this offense. I’m not counting on that happening after just one game, but it’s a nice start.
- Rex Pflueger made a solid, if unspectacular return from his ACL tear last season. He was limited to 22 minutes as he was just recently cleared to return to basketball activity. Rex has looked hesitant offensively in both exhibition games and tonight, missing all three of his shots and not attacking the rim particularly strongly. However, he provided some of his signature defensive energy, grabbing a couple hard-nosed steals and taking a charge. I’ve seen a bunch of national outlets cite Pflueger’s return as a reason why ND should return to the tournament this season. I don’t think he will be nearly that impactful; in fact, I think the role he played tonight will be fairly emblematic for how he will be utilized. His smarts on defense, ball-handling, and general floor game will be valuable, but he’s not going to be taking any games over, and that’s fine. It’s nice to have him back.
- Robby Carmody was quite a pleasant surprise off the bench, playing like a hyper-caffeinated new model of Pflueger. His 4 steals in 17 minutes show how much energy he brought on defense, and that kind of aggression is something that has been sorely lacking from the Irish squad. His offensive mindset is pure downhill determination — another thing the Irish have been missing, as with inactive, passive possessions frustrating everyone last season. What remains to be seen is whether he can shoot well enough to justify the high usage rate he takes up. He shot 1 for 11 from deep in a small sample from last season, and he didn’t look great on his 3 attempts from tonight.
- That being said, his strong performance may have elevated him above his classmate, Dane Goodwin, in the rotation. Goodwin is a player whose cool demeanor and well-rounded skillset I have admired since his first game, but he just has not been delivering with his jump shot. He had multiple wide open looks from 3 point range tonight, and he missed all of them. He remains tantalizing as a highly-recruited player with shooting that the Irish crave, but until that shotmaking manifests itself in games, Goodwin doesn’t provide much.
- Speaking of much-needed shotmaking, Nate Laszewski continues to be hot-and-cold-but-mostly-cold, with an 0-5 3-point shooting night. His struggles are particularly baffling, as he was singled out as one of the best shooting prospects in the nation heading into last year. He still seems to be rushing some attempts, but even wide-open shots clanked. Laz has actually impressed me with some of his toughness down low with rebounding and challenging shots, but all of that is secondary to his usefulness as a floor-spacer, and that continues to be a letdown.
- A couple quick words on the bigs. John Mooney had a very tough night on both sides of the ball, settling for a lot of long twos that rimmed out and getting lost on defense on multiple occasions. I’m not worried about him in the long term, but I do think the Irish have a limited ceiling with him as the star player. Juwan Durham also had a tough night, taking some ill-advised face-ups and proving ineffective in the post. I’m a big Durham fan, but tonight showed that the Mooney/Durham twin towers lineup may not be effective against top competition. Durham always stands out against smaller teams, but it would be nice to see him take a step up in games like these where the Irish are physically overmatched down low.
Pretty good recap! That’s pretty much how I felt about every player. I feel this is an NCAA tournament team if we get good Hubb and Soph Gibbs all year!
It’s gonna be really annoying when Anthony regresses a bit back to normal in the next few weeks and UNC loses a couple games when we had to sit through the greatest freakin’ debut in ACC history. Tip your cap, of course, but also dammit we could’ve stolen that one if he was like 10% less good last night. I’m not sure they have the horses other than him to really make a lot of noise nationally but we’ll see. A triumvirate of Hubb, Gibbs, and Mooney can get a lot of wins if all three at least hover around ‘good’ every game. I think we’ll get that from Hubb. We’ll see on Gibbs. Mooney…I’ll admit I’m pretty nervous about him. Is his shooting really going to sustain this year? Can he produce next to another big? Will he improve defensively at all (he was brutal last night on that end)? Idk. I’m certainly not writing him off after one game, but I just still don’t know that he’s an all-ACC type star player. As for the rest of the guys, I think we can get away with none of them being consistently really good, but we definitely need more than we got in this one. Dane was completely overmatched. I bet Brey squeezes him out of the rotation if he doesn’t turn it on the next few weeks, whether to get down to 7 (as is Brey’s custom) or to give Djogo a chance. I really like Dane as just a natural, jack-of-all-trades kinda ball player, but he’s also a master of none, and he’s pretty average physically, so it’s easy for him to get lost out there. Durham – I thought Brey should’ve gone back to him more and sat Mooney, but he didn’t add much in his limited minutes. Just need more ball screens from him and see what happens that way rather than force feeding him in the post without any apparent advantage. Rex was also not particularly useful, but I still think it’s gonna be a long road back for him, and even then, what does he really give you? The next couple weeks will be interesting with him. Robby was a revelation. I’m not a huge fan in general and kinda thought he’d be odd-man-out of the rotation this year, but that energy and willingness to attack the basket is invaluable to this team. It was largely in garbage time, so I don’t want to overreact too much, but that was really encouraging. And I cannot possibly emphasize enough how important it is that Laz turn into a league-average 3 point shooter…like now. He’s developing nicely in other ways, and I’m impressed by the 7 boards and willingness to get to the rim. But he has to knock down shots or this offense simply doesn’t work. Brey keeps intimating that he’s knocking down shots at a great clip at Rolfs in practice, well that needs to translate to the actual games. I’m somewhat encouraged…but… Read more »
Well we still can’t shoot. Missed a ton of uncontested shots. Missed free throws. Hubb and Gibbs were the only 2 players who looked remotely comfortable out there. Not surprised we got pounded on the boards by UNC, that’s what they do. To beat them, you almost always have to outshoot them. Thank goodness we dominated the turnover battle or this one could have been a laugher.
Obviously it’s only one game (against a very good team), but here are some things I’ll be looking for in the coming month:
Can Durham and Mooney be on the court at the same time? Mooney is at his best when defenders have to guard against both his outside shooting and paint scoring. Mooney has no room to maneuver in the paint when Durham is in. Will he spend more time working around the free throw line when Durham is in (and will this style work for him)? Will Brey give up on the Durham/Mooney lineup combinations and only use Durham to spell Mooney?
Another Durham question; can he and Pflueger be on the floor at the same time without completely breaking the offense? I am at least 75% certain that Brey will give up on playing Durham, Mooney, and Pflueger at the same time relatively early in the season. But can Durham even be on the floor with just Pflueger?
What will we get from Goodwin and Carmody? I’ve just accepted that there is a high probability that Laz will be a streaky scorer over his career (with VJ Beachem-esque upside when his shot is falling), but we need one of Goodwin or Carmody to be getting the ball in the hoop most nights against good teams. When Hubb and Gibbs need breathers, one of those two has to be an efficient offensive presence, especially if they’re on the court with Pflueger/Durham.
Good point with regards to the Durham/Pflueger lineup. We came out looking so stagnant on offense, and Brey had to go to Laz very early to change things up. It was interesting to see Laz pile up 28 minutes despite obviously being ineffective on offense. His reputation as a shooter is probably worth keeping him out there for spacing reasons alone. Still frustrating that the bench unit provided absolutely nothing shooting-wise, but I am stubbornly holding out hope that they live up to their promise at some point this year.
Laz will be fine I think. Everyone either sucks shooting early in their careers or doesn’t do it. I went back through the ND archives and many of our best shooters either very rarely shot threes as freshmen or were bad at it. Falls and McAlarney are the two wild exceptions…I almost can’t believe in retrospect how good they were their entire careers.
VJ and Vasturia didn’t shoot a ton but they sucked, Connaughton and Matt Carroll were at best very mediocre (and Laz wasn’t too far off from them last year), and Abromaitis and Ayers didn’t play much at all. It’s ok that he’s where he’s at coming into this season.
Sophomore leaps, however, are pretty common, so while it’s not great that he got himself off to such a poor start, Laz has the added difficulty of the extended line to contend with. If he can just get to be about a 37% shooter or so, then he is developing just fine and serving his function in this offense very well.
We’ll see; Laz took 130 threes last year. That’s a pretty enormous sample size (more than Beachem and Vasturia combined during their first seasons). It’s similar to Pat’s sample size, but he didn’t become an ELITE 3 point shooter until his senior year; he was just so so good inside the arc, which Nate wasn’t last year.
(Of course, his numbers were very similar to Matt Carroll, who was probably the most consistent shooter out of this group, so that would be a fun result!)