For the first time in their history, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish basketball team sits at 4-0 in conference play. Mike Brey’s team surged late to break the Miami Hurricanes’ 22 game home winning streak. Following the pattern of the preceding three games, this one featured stretches of brilliance, periods of frustration, and clutch delivery down the stretch. When it came to winning time on Thursday, the Irish made plays and Canes turned the ball over.
If you go back eleven years, you can recall a time where the Irish couldn’t win the big one. In 2005-06, Brey’s side lost three double-OT games, two OT games, and three one-possession games. It was a team that couldn’t make the big play in the big moment. It was a talented group, with future NBA’ers Rob Kurz and Chris Quinn. They struggled to close. You could almost sense a little panic in them late. The buzz on Brey for years was that he couldn’t win the big one and early tournament flame-outs were inevitable.
The 2016-17 version of the Fighting Irish have a steady calm about them. Perhaps it is the mellow nature of their senior captains. Perhaps it is the Jersey confidence of their starting back-court. Perhaps it is the confidence that comes from being the only program in the country to visit the Elite Eight the past 2 seasons. Whatever is causing it, Notre Dame is building a reputation of delivering in the clutch. Wednesday night was a perfect example.
In a game that featured runs and streaks, Notre Dame found themselves down four with 2:56 remaining. Brey spent his final timeout down 57-61. He said afterwards that his team was extremely calm in the huddle. Without panic, they worked out what they needed to do, and went back to work. From that point on, the Hurricanes scored a single point. Matt Farrell converted a great drive out of the TO, Bonzie Colson cashed in at the line to tie it on the next trip. A head scratching Miami turnover led to a gorgeous V.J. Beachem back-cutting lay-up to give ND the lead with a minute remaining. Miami splits a pair of FT’s, and Steve “Onions” Vasturia once again makes the play that breaks open the game late. His driving layup late in the shot clock with eleven seconds remaining pushed the Irish up three. Miami makes another inconceivable turnover, and Farrell is able to ice the game for the final margin.
Was it a beautiful night of gorgeous basketball to watch? Hell no. It was, however, a clutch win to keep the Irish atop the ACC standings with Florida State. Early in the game, the Irish dug themselves a few holes, but defensive adjustments allowed them to grind to a 28-all tie at halftime. The second half opened with ND able to create some distance, as much as eleven points. Unfortunately, the Irish found one of their funks with ten minutes remaining in the game, and that lead quickly evaporated and turned in to Miami’s four point lead. In a seven minute stretch, the Irish went from a 93% win-probability to a 12% win probability.
The Miami run was fueled by a number of missed jumpers. Some of them were clean looks that just wouldn’t drop. Others were fantastic defense by an athletic Miami team that blocked twelve shots. When those shots stopped falling, the Irish defense relaxed too. A few weeks ago, the buzz on this Irish team was that they were talented, but flat 2nd halves doomed them against top-tier competition. Fast forward to Friday morning, and the buzz is that Notre Dame is as clutch as they come.
As much as it loathes me to repeat anything that comes out of Dick Vitale’s mouth, he did have a point. The Irish don’t turn the ball over, and they make their FT’s. Thursday, they had a single TO in the second half and went 12-14 overall from the line. Compare that to Miami’s 8-14 from the line and two of their 13 overall turnovers in critical late-game situations. In the end, that decided the game in Notre Dame’s favor.
That the Irish were able to turn the game in their favor is a small miracle. I’m continuously amazed by their mental strength in the face of blatant officiating errors. Yet again, the ACC officials working the game seemed determine to follow the consistent pattern. Anything close is going the other way. Whether it was granting continuation or inconsistently allowing contact around the rim, this crew was deplorable. I was shocked Brey didn’t go get himself a T to make a point. I’m glad he didn’t. The foul calls eventually evened out to ND 11, MIA 12, but a film study tells an entirely other story.
Four Factors
Statistically, this was an interesting game. At 1.036ppp, this was the second least efficient scoring game for the Irish this season. Even still, it was the 4th best offensive effort versus the Miami defense this season. It might not have been pretty, but it worked. The Irish shot a season low 41.0% eFG. There were a ton of blocks inside and several threes that were in and out. This was a rare ND win where the opponent outshot the Irish. Miami managed 42.9% eFG. The turnover battle was critical for Notre Dame, winning that factor 9.3 to 20.1. That helped overcome a 33.3 to 44.2 offensive rebounding percentage deficit. Miami got a lot of second and third chance looks at the rim. The fourth factor is deceiving. The FTA/FGA numbers actually favor Miami 20.9 to 22.2, but Miami made just 8 of their 14 attempts, while the Irish cashed in 12.
Going back to the end of my previous post, while we all spend time talking about offense, the real story here is the defense. The Irish opened the second half with a “kill” (three consecutive stops), and once again, closed the game on a defensive run. Miami’s 0.959ppp is their 4th worse performance on the year.
Using the 2-3
I’ve been a zone-hater my entire basketball life. I believe you need to teach young players good defensive fundamentals. Getting down in a stance and staying in front of your man is a critical skill to have. In the past, I’ve lamented Brey’s retreats into the 2-3 as laziness or capitulation to an inability to defend. For previous Irish teams, lack of defensive motion in the 2-3 sometimes led to lack of motion on the offensive end.
Thursday night, the 2-3 zone again proved to be a disruptive weapon. Whoever is playing up top, the Irish guards are doing a great job disrupting the opponent’s early stage offense. Guys are aggressively fighting over screens and communicating wonderfully to push the opponent up the floor. The back line is doing a great job working together to spot shooters and keep the ball out of the paint. Because the guards are applying great ball pressure, teams aren’t finding an early entry pass. If they do work it in to the paint, the Irish are digging back with active hands and turning teams over. Rebounding will always be an issue in the 2-3, but the sheer will of Bonzie Colson is making up for it. He picked up another nine defensive boards to go with his 2 on the offensive side.
Transition Offense
Pile on yet another way to make an opposing defense pay. When the Irish secured a turnover or a long rebound Wednesday, they quickly got their heads up and looked to run. Three times on the night, the Irish were able to get lay-up’s by advancing the ball with urgency. Credit to the staff for spotting something in the Miami tape and coaching the guys to take advantage.
Individual Performances
Steve Vasturia with another clutch bucket.@NDMbb beats Miami and is now 4-0 in the ACC! pic.twitter.com/wqWVdfQwAI
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) January 13, 2017
Screamin’ Jack Nolan loves to call Steve Vasturia the “Babyfaced Assassin.” Of course, in these parts, he’s simply known as “Onions.” Once again, the senior captain lived up to his reputation in the clutch. As Mike Brey said in the ESPN postgame interview (when Vitale would shut up and let him talk), Vasturia does it all. He’s asked to guard the best wing player, get 10 efficient points, ring up 6 assists, and make the winning play when it is needed. That’s all. No big thing. Brey is talking Vasturia up as a ring-of-honor level guy, and it is really hard to argue with. Vasturia just wins.
Matt Farrell led the team in scoring with 15 points in 36 minutes of work. He had a single TO against his six assists, and picked up 3 defensive rebounds. He was only 2-6 from deep, and he was visibly frustrated by his shooting on the evening. Despite his challenges at the rim and from deep, he still led his team to victory. In particular, his no-look to Beachem on the back-cut for the lay-up to give the Irish the lead stands out.
V.J. Beachem also struggled from deep. Only one of his five long-range attempts went down, but he managed to go 3-6 inside the arc and make 4 of his 5 FT attempts. It is great to see VJ getting as many FTA’s as 3FGA’s. He needs to stay aggressive. My only ask of the talented senior is that he hit the defensive glass a little harder. The Irish need more than 2 DR’s from him.
Before the game, I predicted Bonzie Colson was in for a Junkyard Bonz kind of night. It was the junior’s birthday Thursday, and other Irish teammates had stepped in to the spotlight recently. Unfortunately, it wasn’t meant to be. Bonzie went a shocking 1-10 inside the arc for his worst shooting night of his career. The length and athleticism of the Hurricanes clearly bothered Colson. He made all three FT’s and stroked one of his two three point attempts to contribute eight points. While it wasn’t his usual double-double monster, his eleven rebounds and two steals were critical in the win.
Martinas Geben continues to roll along with solid performances. Geben only got 15 minutes of run, but scored 6 points on 3-4 dunking. His movement off the screen-and-roll with Farrell continues to be excellent. For a few stretches, Notre Dame was running their offense through Geben in the post. In the second half, there was a beautiful possession where Geben screened for Farrell. Miami made the ill-advised 1-5 switch and Geben immediately took the smaller man to the block. Farrell got Geben the ball, and when the defense collapsed to help, Geben fired a perfect pass out for an open 3. It didn’t go down, but it was excellent execution and maturity from the Lithuanian big man. I was calling for him to get back in the game when Colson was struggling and Miami was making their late run.
If there’s a better 6th man in the country than Rex Pflueger, I’d like to see him. Rex plays starter’s minutes (24 Thursday) and closes the game. His stat line doesn’t jump out at you: 5 pts, 1 reb, 0 ast, 2 stl. Much like the officiating situation, you need to look at the tape to understand Rex’s contribution. First, he’s far more disruptive on defense than those 2 steals indicate. Second, he makes a lot of “hockey assists” on offense. His motion or ball reversal keeps the Irish offense flowing. In the last few possessions, go back and look at how Rex communicates with VJ on the weak side to keep moving/exchanging. This keeps the help side defense occupied and opens up things like Vasturia’s drive from the corner.
T.J. Gibbs continues to delight. Granted, this is a very different team than the one Demetrius Jackson debuted with, but Gibbs seems ahead of where DJ was at this stage. He didn’t shoot the ball well Thursday (1-5), but he found 2 assists and didn’t turn the ball over at all. He’s so active atop the 2-3 and isn’t afraid to step up and take the shot or drive the ball. Let’s hope this young man keeps growing and maturing, because his upside is phenomenal.
Matt Ryan could go down as the most snakebitten Irish player of all time. He did exactly what was asked of him in his four minutes. Both his attempts from deep looked dead on, but just rattled out. Credit to Brey for continuing to go back to him. My only hope is that Ryan’s confidence can survive the “heat check, then out” role Brey has assigned him.
Austin Torres earns the coveted final position in this recap. The red-shirt senior was wonderful Thursday. Torres managed a remarkable point-a-minute contribution with eight points on 4-5 shooting. He gave Brey critical minutes and energy on a night where Miami’s athleticism threatened to intimidate the Irish. For those asking, eight points is three off of Torres’ career high of eleven versus Purdue two seasons ago. Regardless, his contributions were key on a night the front-line mainstay was struggling.
Big Picture
Winning Thursday night in Miami pushed the KenPom “chance of unbeaten record” in conference from 0.01% to 0.02%. Woo! Double up!
Before conference play opened, most Irish fans looked at the opening to the season and worried that January could be a blood bath. Trips to traditionally difficult locations like Pitt and Miami loomed large. Louisville and Clemson represented emerging powers with prodigious athleticism. Sitting at Christmas dinner, most Irish fans would have taken 2-2 through these first four to the bank. Now, Brey sits at 4-0 and has a massive stack of house money to play with.
The next 4 games are nothing short of torturous. Notre Dame has to quickly turn around and travel to Virginia Tech, who has been sitting around in flannel jammies since Tuesday and hasn’t traveled in over a week. After that, the Irish head back to Florida for a Wednesday night tilt versus league-leading FSU. Notre Dame gets Syracuse in the JACC that Saturday. Another quick turnaround brings Virginia to South Bend on Tuesday the 24th.
The KenPom predictions, put the Irish at 1-3 through this difficult stretch. Both games against the Virginia schools are essentially coin flips. Only FSU is projected to be a multiple-possession loss (82-76). The Syracuse game on a Saturday is the first time students can have their presence felt in ACC play.
The league could look very jumbled by the end of the weekend. The Irish travel to Blacksburg and Seminoles visit Chapel Hill. Should both teams survive tough tests, it sets up for an epic clash in Tallahassee Wednesday. If that comes to pass, the winner will sit at 6-0 and have a commanding position atop the league.
From a realistic perspective, this 4-0 start has raised the ceiling on this Irish team. I can’t blame anyone for dreaming of a double-bye in Brooklyn to set up another magical run. There’s absolutely no reason for the Irish to fear anyone in this league (although FSU getting Duke by 16 is damn impressive). My only worry is that I haven’t significantly raised the floor yet. Our four “pushover” games versus BC and GT suddenly look like legitimate challenges. We’ve got FSU on the schedule twice with Virginia, Duke, UNC, and Louisville to go. Asking for more than 2 wins out of group that is challenging.
This is a really fun bunch of guys to watch. I try to channel my inner Mike Brey and say, “One game at a time.” Rather than get hung up in the big picture, I’m choosing to appreciate these guys for who they are: a fun, admirable, hard-working team that loves to play together. Thursday night was another night to appreciate and celebrate this team. Here’s to hoping for many more in the future.
Great recap, Joe. Much appreciated.
Wonder where Vasturia and VJ are shaping up to be on the all-time program wins list. Does their freshman year cost them too much? I know they set the 2-year program record the last two seasons, and I’d have to imagine they are well on their way to set the 3-year record as well. Austin Torres is probably going to walk away with the record if he stays for next year, though (and Farrell, Geben, and Colson)!
Would lend more credence to Vasturia as a ring of honor level player, although I think that might be pushing it a bit much for me. How many guys do you want up there? 10? 20? 50? I think anything more than 10-12 feels way too self-congratulatory and sort of defeats the purpose. Don’t think Vasturia is at that level. Jerian sure as hell is, though. They should get him up there ASAP.
We’ll see how it all plays out. To me, Vasturia is different than, yet better than someone like Harangody. The numbers will never compare between the two, but Vasturia has consistently done what has been needed to usher in the most successful era the program has known. He’s never been the star, but can you name someone who has been better “glue?”
The longer the pieces hold together and produce results, the more credit has to be given to the glue.
I admittedly wasn’t as up on advanced basketball thinking back when Harangody was around. I know he was pretty poor defensively but he was the CPOY one year. Is it really true that Vasturia > Harangody? Harangody’s teams had inferior results but Vasturia has had the opportunity to play with some damn good players, whereas Harangody’s teammates were generally worse athletes and (like himself) leaky defenders.
I need to admit my bias.
Harangody’s senior year turned me from a fan to a detractor. I think he was overrated and while he put up big numbers, his draft audition senior year hurt the team badly.
I’m sure any objective analysis would prove me wrong, but in my subjective mind, I’m far more appreciative of what Steve is doing with his time in South Bend.
For the record I’d like Steve to be honored in some way. I just think that in order to do so, you probably need to cast the net fairly wide with recent players. Jerian, obviously, but I think Connaughton clears the bar as well, and a guy like Demetrius is an interesting case.
I don’t want to end this comment on the bad stuff, so I’ll get it out of the way here. The one thing that I will ding Vasturia for is that in last year’s postseason (both ACC and NCAA tourneys), he pulled off a major disappearing act (at least offensively) and was basically ice cold for the six (consecutive) most important games of the year.
I love Vasturia — he does so much for this team that gets little attention. Farrell is the headline-stealer this year with Bonzie Colson a close second. Even Beachem was ranked as a top-100 player before the year started. Meanwhile, Steve just continues doing his job. What elevates Steve for me is the fact that in addition to being a consistent, all-around great contributor, he’s been tremendous in the clutch. In baseball, there’s a stat called Win Probability Added that tracks the cumulative win probability your at-bats, stolen bases, innings pitched, etc, contribute to the team. In basketball, it’s really hard to compute that since there’s so many more muddling factors, but man, can you think of a guy who’s hit more big shots in a non-alpha role? Hell, even a guy who’s hit more shots in an alpha role? Steve’s WPA would be through the roof.
Like you said, WPA in basketball doesn’t nearly capture a player’s worth like in baseball, but it looks like Vasturia (2.6) is 2nd on this team to Bonzie (3.4).
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/notre-dame/2017.html
I had no idea it existed for basketball! Thanks!
Hmmm actually I just looked at this and I think “Win Shares” (the metric in which Bonzie is at 3.4 and Steve is at 2.6) is something different than “Win Probability Added”. Correct me if I’m wrong here.
Unless I’m mistaken, “Win Shares” is more of an aggregate value type metric, whereas Win Probability Added places very heavy weight on clutch performances.
Example of what I’m saying: A team is down by 2 points with the ball with less than 10 seconds left. Joe Blow, who’s on the court in crunch time for some reason but hasn’t touched the ball the rest of the day, drills a three to send his team to victory. His WPA for the game is huge because he took a bad situation and turned it into a near-certain victory. Meanwhile, the star player put up 25 points and 12 rebounds with 6 assists. I’d expect the star to crush the scrub in Win Shares (all the scrub did to contribute was hit one, albeit timely, shot), but the scrub might have a higher WPA for that game.
As for last night’s game, what an awful game. I’m so glad we won it, though. Our defense was very very good but my goodness if Miami converted half of the easy tap-in opportunities they had on the offensive boards, we’d be lamenting a loss right now. I’m not sure if I’m a believer in our defense yet, but they’ve sure shown they are in the upper echelon of the ACC through 4 games. Hope they can continue that.
Our offense was just fighting it and couldn’t get anything to go. Some of that was Miami’s defense (shutting down Bonzie, the pressure on ball screens in the first 10 minutes), but we just couldn’t make anything, even very very good looks. Big lift from the bench to even keep us in the ball game in the first half.
Not Larranaga’s finest performance. Had no solutions to a simple 2-3 zone. No consistent flow to their offense. Totally abandoned their very effective hedging on ball screens after the first 10 minutes. Needless timeout towards the end that sacrificed a potential good look and got a turnover out of hit. Great coach, but I think he cost them a win in this one.
I’m just very glad we won. I can’t imagine they’ll win on Saturday as well, but they seem to be pretty adept at proving doubters wrong. This schedule just sucks. I’d be tremendously impressed if they find a way again regardless of how it looks.
I agree with the Larranaga sentiment. How can you not be ready for a 2-3 zone in ACC play? I know ours is very different, but you just saw (and stunk against) Syracuse in the previous game.
I know he’s not out there executing late, but their last two TO’s – particularly the 2nd to last – looked like guys that are over-coached and hearing echoes of the bench before making a play.
This was one hell of a win. Now we get a VT game that should be the complete opposite. We are going to have to score against them, and the outside shots have to fall. Hopefully the legs aren’t too tired on the short rest, because we’ve seen VJ (and to a lesser extent, Vasturia) struggle with the shooting on quick-ish turnarounds.
We aren’t going to shut down VT’s offense. They just have too many weapons to completely shut them down. But if our shots are falling, that can help limit their transition game. The good news is that they aren’t strong on the offensive glass, so hopefully we won’t give up too many second chance points.
I think it’s going to be a fun, crisp game, with both teams in the upper 70s or 80s. Another chance for a big road victory.
Somewhat sobering stat, when projecting the two teams the rest of the way:
https://twitter.com/tnoieNDI/status/819928475511427073
But do you expect us to ever overwhelm anyone? I know we had the at-the-time #1 team down double digits this year. Realistically, however, this isn’t a group that’s going to blow anyone out. This is how they’re going to have to grind it out. Good for heart medication and antacid sales.
Just that it’s (margin, that is) the most predictive hoops stat there is, so while we’re tied with them in the standings now, I think it’s pretty likely that they’ll ultimately pull ahead of us as the season progresses. Being able to grind out close wins is an important trait, but if that’s ALL you’re doing, it might not bode well long-term. Maryland in recent years is a pretty good example.
Agreed. At some point it catches up to you. It is exhausting.
I don’t think our goal is to hang with FSU. That’s going to be tough to do. If they can win in the Dean Dome, I’m ready to declare them best in the nation. I could see projecting them to something around 16-2 or so with that win. A regular season title shouldn’t be the goal. Fight to sniff top-4 and make noise in Brooklyn. That seems much more like the bar for the Irish.
There are probably 10-12 ELITE teams right now. If the Irish are in that next tier of 20-30 teams, that’s a very successful season and keeps them in play to get to March, where the ability to grind out close ones could come in handy.
Yep, I think that I agree with both of you guys on this one, as usual. That huge margin for FSU makes them much more likely to finish higher in the conference standings than us. But since I never had “win the ACC regular season” as any sort of realistic possibility for the Irish, I’m not concerned about it. In fact, I’m happier with our close victories, as they will do more (theoretically) to prepare us to fight out some close, tough battles come tournament time. So sure, I would love to be a team that is good enough to consistently beat down opponents. But for this team, I couldn’t have really drawn up a better start to ACC play. 4 close wins, won with 4 fairly different styles of play.
It sure looks like ND ended up with an easier “two-fer” schedule than FSU
Boston College: 2016-17
Home/Road: Syracuse, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Clemson: 2016-17
Home/Road: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Duke 2016-17
Home/Road: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Miami
Florida State: 2016-17
Home/Road: Miami, Clemson, Duke, Notre Dame
Georgia Tech: 2016-17
Home/Road: Clemson, Notre Dame, NC State, Syracuse
Louisville: 2016-17
Home/Road: Pitt, Virginia, Syracuse, Notre Dame
Miami 2016-17
Home/Road: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Duke, NC State
North Carolina 2016-17
Home/Road: Duke, NC State, Virginia, Pitt
NC State 2016-17
Home/Road: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Miami, Georgia Tech
Notre Dame 2016-17
Home/Road: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Louisville
Pitt 2016-17
Home/Road: Louisville, Syracuse, North Carolina, Virginia
Syracuse 2016-17
Home/Road: Boston College, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Louisville
Virginia 2016-17
Home/Road: Louisville, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt
Virginia Tech 2016-17
Home/Road: Miami, Virginia, Clemson, Boston College
Wake Forest 2016-17
Home/Road: Duke, NC State, Clemson, Boston College
That’s always going to be true as long as GT and BC are bad teams. With them as our “permanent rivals,” we caught a huge break in the league. I’m sure neither FSU or ND fans are that thrilled to have the other on repeat, nor Louisville. It can always be worse/better. Last year we caught Wake and Miami and went 6-3 against that group.
This year it is looking like we have a shot to match that or do better, but I’d argue that both non-rival repeat opponents this year are tougher thane either from last year.
That’s life in an unbalanced schedule. On the whole Irish fans have to hope BC and GT stay near the bottom of the league.
BC belongs at the bottom of everything, ever.
WOOOO!!! @GO CATHOLICS, BEAT THOSE CONVICTS!!!@
Given that all b-ball aficianado comments above are good and appreciated… but finally, KG expresses the essential. Wins against Da U are sweet wins.
Speaking of, and OT, did anyone see the 10 Dec ESPN show on the ’88 game? Was it any good? If so, how do I get hold of it?
Just another gutty, ugly win.
Joe, I am glad to see you mention the officiating. I am a bball junkie, so I have watched countless ACC games this year. I continue to be amazed & frustrated by “continuation” buckets being counted like it was the NBA.
Re: The 30 for 30, have watched it 3 times and highly recommend it.
The continuation in the first half last night is the worst I’ve ever seen given in a college game, no question about it.
the collegiate officiating on traveling looked NBA like for Davon Reed.
If the NCAA kept a stat for shot attempts per touch, Matt Ryan would have to lead the country.
Perhaps this is a cliche saying, about working up a sweat before firing up shots, but taking shots right away versus Miami are not the same as NC A&T- in that you are not the same level of open.
On the Gody senior year comments, I agree but much of that was on Brey- he allowed that to happen.
In his last 3 seasons, Gody had 3 of the top 5 seasons in the Brey era for shot attempts per game. He shot around 49% on two’s his last 3 seasons (and I am sure his conference numbers were not even 45%- he had many 6 for 17 games on 2’s). Simple math- 48% shooting on two’s is the same as 32% on treys and ND had plenty of guys who could shoot that %. The critics were right in at least slightly dismissing his production because of the amount of shots he took. He was like the Alfredrick Hughes of ND.
I would be good money that Ryan is told specifically that he is in there to shoot and passing up an open look is the fastest way to find a seat back on the bench. He’s been coached to let it fly.
Just curious — does anyone think a transfer is in Matt Ryan’s future? He doesn’t project as a starter next year, but who knows, maybe Beachem leaving will help expand his role. I’ve been wondering what the guy thinks about being glued to the bench so often.
Brey has already said he needs to find ways to get Ryan on the floor, and I fully anticipate him getting time in Blacksburg, even if the first shot or two doesn’t fall. VT’s style of play should allow him to find a defensive match-up that works, and I expect him to play well. With all the wear and tear on guys like Bonzie, VJ and Steve – Ryan can give helpful minutes in the big picture.
If he gets hot and makes 4, we’re going to go freakin’ nuts. The guy is currently asked to be a HR hitter. Chicks dig the long ball, but forget your name when you’re missing. Once he gets rolling, he’ll be just fine.
I also think we’re far too down on his minutes next year. Steve and VJ open up a solid 75 minutes/gm of run. Obviously, Rex and TJ are the first beneficiaries of that, but Ryan might find some natural time as a 3 man instead of stretch 4 with that team. He’s also going to get time along with Bonzie or as the stretch 4 alongside Geben.
There are minutes for him out there. Way too early to call bust on him.
DJ Harvey is going to play minutes next season, in fact I’d be shocked if he did not play more than Gibbs is this season.
So you have Matt, Rex, TJ, Ryan, DJ, and Djogo next season for 120 minutes. Fairly sure you can pencil 65 minutes for Matt Farrell and Rex- so that leaves 55 for the other 4 (though I don’t see Djogo playing much, but I do believe he could be a solid player eventually).
It’s possible you could see Ryan playing some 4, but Brey should have back all 5 of his inside guys next season (Bonzie, Geben, Torres, Burns, Mooney)- they are all going to be one year stronger/better.
One of the biggest issues with Ryan is he is a total tweener on defense. Not quick enough to guard 3’s and not strong enough to muscle 4’s. IMO he hurts you less as a 4.
Right now Ryan is a one trick pony and he needs to figure out ways to be more than that. He should study tapes on how Abro became a solid all around player, despite being an average athlete for high major CBB. FWIW Ryan can play major minutes next season as a one trick pony, but to stay on the floor he is going to need to make at least 40% of his treys versus legit competition.
Creighton had a guy like this a few seasons ago.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/ethan-wragge-1.html
DJ has been the most heralded and physically ready player in the last few years, and he played 51% of available minutes his freshman year. TJ is currently at 35%. Granted, both were playing positions where there were established upperclassmen playing key roles, but it would be hard to believe that Harvey goes more than 18-20/game.
As Alstein likes to point out, Ryan’s biggest issue might end up being that Mooney passes him. It is pretty clear Brey isn’t going to put Mooney or Burns out there this year, but that can’t be said of next year. In fact, I could see Brey putting a bully ball front line out there with Burns, Colson, and Mooney playing together with Rex and Farrell. It would be the least perimeter shooting we’ve put on the floor in recent memory, but with both Colson and Mooney able to stroke it from deep, you’d make opponents decide which of their wing men is going to get beat up in the post. With 3 big men that can move and defend (2 of which can shoot), you have something fun to tinker with. Ryan’s issue is that he can’t bang on the block like Mooney can. So even if Ryan is the better perimeter shooter, Mooney’s versatility might allow him to pass by.
I don’t know how this plays out, but I know I like options. As long as Ryan is a team guy and not a malcontent, you love having the depth. As a leader, Brey has the Farrell story to point to. He and the staff should be saying to Matt Ryan, “Look at Farrell, from DNP’s to MIP discussion nationally. Keep grinding.”
Well that was a win. Lots of good comments already, don’t want to be redundant. That crowd..woof, makes me almost thankful for the tame Purcell crowds.
Vasturia, so much fun to watch this guy. The rich man’s Scott Martin.
Liked what I saw from VJ today. His 3s weren’t falling, but he forced some steals on defense and hustled after loose balls. He did the little things better today.
Amazed that Farrell only had 1 turnover, very bad first half but turned things around. Some of those circus shots he tries…they need to be removed from his arsenal. It could be making that flip 3 against Louisville was actually a bad thing. I know I’m hard on him, but he’s winning me over slowly.
Torres looked like he belonged. Not intimidated by the Miami size on either end.
Rex was great again. Props to him for getting a foul call for boxing out, his technique was too good.
Officiating…continuation calls…Farrells blocking foul…missed travels
Oh man, I forgot about the “block” on Farrell. Even the TV guys were on that one. That’s the huge benefit of being on the real ESPN vs. ACC RayCom regional garbage. The RayCom guys are way more protective of “the hierarchy” than the national guys.
I know Brey is walking a fine line and trying not to make it worse, but at some point, he’s going to have to stand up for his team.
The clear answer here is national oversight of officiating. Have you watched a B10 game? Looks like a wrestling match in the paint. There needs to be a standard to protect these stupid conferences from themselves.
You don’t miss the old Big East officiating standard, where you could throw elbows/tackle guys so long as you were just trying your hardest out there?
That’s what the B10 still looks like within the painted area. They’re trying to clean up the perimeter, but it looks like an old BE wrestling match inside. The answer is national officiating oversight AND a wider lane.
No I don’t miss it. Well except that one time they allowed Dejuan Blair to judo flip Hashem Thabeet, that was amazing.
If ND is not on ESPN/ACC Network (blacked out) tonight what channel would it be on locally (washington dc)?