What a year, huh? First we had that delicious road victory against a favored SEC team, then the devastating loss to NIU, and oh, I see we’re not even halfway through the schedule. The 2024 Notre Dame football team has hit some crazy highs and fallen lower than the Marianas Trench with 75% of the season still to come. However, this week will determine just how angsty the fanbase will be this winter. A win will once again cement the Irish as a potential playoff contender and avenge last year’s listless defeat in Louisville. A loss and… well we won’t have to worry about South Bend hotels filling up in early-December.

#15 Louisville (+7) at #16 Notre Dame

Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, September 28, 2024
Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: Peacock

In a somewhat surprising development, the line has steadily swung in Notre Dame’s direction over the week. Louisville smacked two tomato can opponents to begin the season before finding themselves in a dogfight against feisty Georgia Tech last week. The Cardinals pulled away in the end and are primed for another 10-win season, but first they come to Notre Dame Stadium for the first time since the weird 2020 Covid game where the Irish won despite scoring only 12 points. This is the Irish Wear Green game so please leave those ugly sandstorm-colored shirts at home!

Offense

Tyler Shough is one of the last super-duper seniors left in college football and is finally healthy again after two gruesome injuries derailed his career. The former top-200 recruit followed Justin Herbert as Oregon’s QB in 2020 but was eventually benched for Anthony Brown due to inconsistent play. He then transferred to Texas Tech where he was again plagued by inconsistency, but flashed enough potential for people to get excited about his 2023 season. That came crashing down when he fractured his fibula in week 4 and lost his starting job yet again. Shough entered the portal again and found has found a home in Louisville.

Now, he is playing the best ball of his career and putting up some big numbers albeit against iffy competition. Shough throws a pretty deep ball and has good wheels, but his rushing attempts are trending way down this season compared to previous years. Is this because Jeff Brohm doesn’t want Shough to get injured again, or are the Cards saving his legs for a big game where they might need him to grind out yardage on the ground? We are certain to get an answer on that this Saturday.

Between Issac Brown, Duke Watson and Keyjuan Brown the Cardinals have three freshman splitting carries at running back. The offensive line returned just two starters from last year’s squad but is paving the way for 6.4 yards per carry so far this season. However, most of this was done again against an FCS team and Jacksonville State which ranks 108th in Defensive F+/-. Last week, Louisville utterly failed to run the ball against Georgia Tech’s 87th ranked defense according to F+/-, but that doesn’t mean the Irish defense will stuff them. The Cards didn’t have a particularly good offense last year but still burned Al Golden’s defense on a few long runs. Brohm is a master of pre-snap motion which has strained Notre Dame’s young linebackers so far this year so this is a concern.

Louisville has a sneaky streak of very fast and talented wide receivers and this year is no exception. Alabama transfer Ja’Corey Brooks is the clear leader and currently on pace for a 1,200 yard season. He’s good, but will be getting the Benji Morrison experience this Saturday. Chris Bell and Jadon Thompson provide solid depth behind Brooks but neither have his talent-level.  Overall this is a tough offense to defend but Shough and Co. have yet to prove themselves against anyone with a pulse.

Defense

Despite Jeff Brohm’s reputation as one of the best offensive coaches in college football, Louisville’s defense carried the team to the ACC Championship Game last season. Co-DCs Ron English and Mark Hagen run a varied scheme, switching between 4-3 and 4-2-5 base defenses. 275-pound defensive end Ashton Gillotte is the star and is seen by most as a late-1st round pick in the NFL Draft. Gillotte is a powerful edge rusher who wears down offensive tackles with his high motor, even besting Joe Alt a handful of times in last year’s game. Anthonie Knapp is performing exceptionally for a true freshman but he is once again called upon to prevent a 1st round talent from destroying the offense.

The Cards under English and Hagen have been salty against the run in giving up 3.3 yards per rush thus far this season after surrendering just 3.4 in 2023. Along with Gillotte, T.J. Quinn is an undersized yet quick linebacker who had a big game against the Irish last year. Another familiar face is corner Quincy Riley who intercepted Sam Hartman last year and is a game-time decision after an injury against Georgia Tech. Riley is another player getting a look from NFL scouts so this Cardinals defense has some serious talent.

However, Louisville is showing some cracks that were not visible last year. It’s a limited sample size, but they are forcing less three-and-outs with 73% of opponent drives gaining at least 15 yards compared to 52% last year. To emphasize this point, Haynes King and Georgia Tech moved the ball efficiently at 6 yards per play and controlled the tempo of the game. The Yellow Jackets held the ball for 57% of last week’s contest before garbage time despite only rushing for 2.6 yards per carry. That is the template for Notre Dame on Saturday: stay on the field and lean on this defense until they break. I’m sure that was the game plan last year before turnovers and penalties torpedoed the offense.

Three Questions

Is this phone booth offense sustainable?

We had a high hopes in the preseason that the Leonard-Denbrock pairing + better wideouts would result in a more balanced offense, but the run/pass split so far this season is 54-46 which is only slightly better than the 56-44 ratio last year. Even more frustrating is the total lack of consistency in driving the ball downfield. We might’ve all hated last year’s offense but the Irish did rank 14th in OSR FEI which is the percentage of drives that result in a touchdown or a field goal attempt. The offense has slipped to 51st so far this season which tracks with the eye test. Outside of the Purdue massacre there is not much rhythm to the offense.

That being said, an identity is finally starting to form. Denbrock has leaned heavily on the run game ever since the NIU debacle which has somehow worked despite the frightfully young offensive line. Jeremiyah Love and Jedarian Price have become two of the most explosive running backs in the country while Riley Leonard’s legs have proven invaluable in tight spots. But is this really sustainable? The Irish are falling back into the same habits which have defined almost every offense since 2015: ground and pound with success through the air only coming against bad opponents. I don’t know how it happens but it feels like Notre Dame’s offense turns into Manball every single year.

I am so desperate to escape this identity because we have ample evidence that this is a dead-end in terms of championship contention. But if we’re stuck with it in 2024, the Miami game might be our template. The Irish showed more variety in the passing game while racking up 270 rushing yards against a good MAC defense. However, Leonard’s 6.2 yards per pass isn’t going to cut it against Louisville. Last week was a step in the right direction for him and despite a handful of missed layup throws he at least saw that guys were open and even looked accurate on several short throws over the middle. We already knew he’s one of the best running QBs in college football, but we’ve yet to see the Riley Leonard we were promised.

How does the secondary hold up against the best passer so far?

Jeff Brohm preferred to air the ball out at Purdue, throwing the ball more than 57% of the time in five of his six seasons in West Lafeyette. However, sketchy play by Jack Plummer forced offensive coordinator Brian Brohm to call a 55-45% run/pass split in 2023 which went against the elder Brohm’s tendencies. Thanks in part to Shough’s talent though, the Cards are passing more this season with a balanced 52-48% run/pass split.

The last time Notre Dame’s defense allowed an opposing QB to throw for more than 200 yards was Kyle McCord but that streak is in danger on Saturday. Louisville has a deep wideout corps and the Irish could be without Christian Gray. That wouldn’t be a killer if Jaden Mickey hadn’t just shut down his season, but as of now Notre Dame might have to start Leonard Moore across from Morrison. Being without two of your top three cornerbacks against a good passing attack isn’t ideal.

Louisville could not run the ball against a weak Georgia Tech defense with only 57 yards at 2.1 ypc. This is likely the product of an inexperienced offensive line working on building consistency which gives the Irish front seven a huge advantage on Saturday. Thus. Louisville is going to throw the ball and a potentially hobbled Irish secondary will have to demonstrate their reputation again.

Can Marcus Freeman work some big game magic?

As the title suggests, this game is the season. A win would go a long way in restoring confidence in Marcus Freeman as head coach in South Bend while a loss almost certainly wipes out any chance of earning a playoff bid. Luckily, Freeman has shown a propensity for getting the Irish to play well in big spots so far in his young career.

Freeman is 7-4 against ranked opponents in his three years at Notre Dame compared to Brian Kelly’s record of 5-5 from 2019-2021. The largest margin of defeat for MF? Last year’s disinterested loss against Louisville. I know we really shouldn’t place any stock in an opponent’s ranking until the end of the season but I do think it’s significant that the Irish tend to play pretty well when it’s a team with a number in front of its name in that moment. It’s been the damn games against unranked opponents that we need to worry about!

Notre Dame absolutely, 100% had to beat Texas A&M to prove that this program could reach another level. It was Freeman’s biggest game at ND and the team delivered in front of a national audience. He absolutely, 100% had to beat Purdue after the worst home loss in the post-Holtz era and the Irish obliterated the Boilermakers in a way none of us saw coming. He absolutely, 100% needs to win this weekend against Louisville. The Irish are at home, possibly wearing green, and have the more talented team from top-to-bottom. Two weeks ago, I wrote that there is no more margin for error for MF. No more excuses. It’s time to win.

Prediction

I’ve been vacillating on the winner of this game for a while now. The NIU disaster destroyed so much hope for this season and I don’t believe any Irish fan would’ve picked ND over Louisville after September 6. The team clawed back some goodwill the past two weeks but the fanbase is still suspicious (and rightfully so). Louisville is a strong team and will arrive in South Bend confident they can beat the Irish, especially after last season.

Strangely enough, I feel confident that Notre Dame’s offense won’t vomit all over themselves this time. The Cardinal’s defense isn’t quite as good as they were in 2023 and they are vulnerable against dual-threat quarterbacks. Haynes King racked up 370 yards of offense by himself last Saturday and Riley Leonard can at least be a poor man’s Haynes King. Louisville’s offense hasn’t proven it can run the football against a decent FBS defense but last year offers a warning. The Cards played NC State the game before ND came to town and only managed 20 yards on 29 carries but ran for 185 yards against the Irish. Notre Dame can’t afford to screw around this time and the young linebackers need to take another step forward.

Ultimately, I still like Notre Dame. Last season’s game was the perfect storm for Louisville as the Irish run defense was off while the offense self-destructed in spectacular fashion. This time, I believe the offense can execute the template needed to win despite concerns about the offensive line. The fans are right to be skeptical but this line might actually be good? That’s what you get if you turned Eric’s grades from the game reviews so far (A, B-, A-, and a B against Miami) into a GPA. Against all odds this line is paving the way for the 10th-ranked rushing offense in the country averaging 240 yards per game. Granted, Jeremiyah Love and Jedarian Price have a lot to do with that but these guys are doing something right!

So here’s the gameplan: stay out of 3rd and long, hit a couple of big plays through the air, and do not turn the ball over. Run plenty of RPO to get Gillotte and Quinn out of position which is something last year’s offense was simply not built to accomplish. Defensively, shut down the run and force them become the first team in 11 games to throw the ball at a decent clip against this secondary. There will be a lot of field goals and more frustrating moments from Leonard and Co., but I think the Cardinals will be too one-dimensional on offense to win. Notre Dame eventually breaks through in the fourth quarter and wears the Cards down.

Notre Dame 26

Louisville 17