The first half of this season has been… something. Lots of surprises both good and bad, some recent trend upwards, and very little clarity about the back half. Usually when we do this look-back we can get a pretty good sense of where things are headed, but 2021 is not that kind of year – not for Notre Dame, or for anyone else. Did any of you have Texas A&M struggling to beat Colorado and then knocking off Alabama in dramatic fashion? How about Clemson suddenly forgetting how to play offense? Speaking of which, your ACC divisional leaders are Wake Forest on one side and Pitt and Virginia Tech on the other. We all had that, right? And we definitely foresaw Kentucky co-leading the SEC East with Georgia, with Florida already in the rearview. And Oklahoma fans booing their preseason Heisman favorite off the field in the Red River Shootout.

What a year.

Big Picture Stuff

What will Notre Dame’s 2020 regular season record be?

  • 12-0 – 10%
  • 11-1 – 37%
  • 10-2 – 45%
  • 9-3 – 8%

Well, 12-0 is off the table, clearly. Boo. We’ve had plenty of evidence that this is a game but flawed Notre Dame team, for sure, but 11-1 does feel very much in play still given the trendline for this team and its remaining opponents. USC and UNC, which were supposed to be the back end of the midseason murderers row, look about as threatening as Teddy Ruxpin at this point, and they might still be the most dangerous opponents left. That’s not to say the Irish can’t find a way to lose a game in there, but running the table isn’t outlandish.

In the preseason review we noted that the Vegas O/U on Notre Dame’s win total was 8.5, the SP+ projection was 7.5, the FPI projection was 9.2, and the FEI projection was 9.0. An 8-4 season would mean 3-3 over the final six, which seems extremely unlikely at this point.

92% of the staff picked 10-2 or better (17% for 12-0, 8% for 11-1, and 67% for 10-2). As I noted in the comments the other day, I picked 11-1 and thought Cincinnati was the scariest team on the schedule, and I’m still annoyed at the way the first six games played out. Life as a fan is fun.

What’s your biggest concern heading into the season?

  • Offensive line play – 43%
  • Cornerbacks – 25%
  • Offensive explosiveness – 13%
  • Receivers – 10%
  • Run game consistency – 4%
  • Quarterback play – 2%
  • Nothing (added specifically for the Rigneys) – 1%
  • Less than 1%:
    • Defensive consistency
    • Defensive ends
    • Traits
    • Having to watch that one game on Peacock

50% of the staff also picked offensive line play, and boy, did all those voters nail it. I don’t think there’s even any point in getting any deeper into this. There may be some cause for hope though, as it looks like the staff found something on the left side against Virginia Tech with Joe Alt and Andrew Kristofic and Cain Madden and Josh Lugg looked the best they have all season.

Will Notre Dame be in the playoff discussion on Halloween?

  • Yes – 61%
  • No – 39%

58% of the staff said no here, and it looks like the pessimistic play was the right one. If – and, even for one as sunshine and gumdrops as me, it’s a significant if – the Irish get past USC and North Carolina, they’ll cruise into Halloween at 7-1 and likely in or on the cusp of the top ten. They may technically be in the playoff picture at that point, but I think the unexpected softness of the schedule would make it really, really hard to make the final four. Say Alabama wins out in the regular season and loses a close one to Georgia in the SEC championship game – is there any way they would be left out for Notre Dame? Doubtful. Same for Ohio State and Iowa, Oklahoma and Texas, etc.

All of that is okay – this isn’t a team that can win a title, and if it gets left out of the playoff it’s because the resume wasn’t good enough. Full stop. Take advantage of the growth opportunities and come back stronger next year.

Superlatives

Who will be Notre Dame’s offensive MVP?

  • Kyren Williams – 42%
  • Michael Mayer – 32%
  • Jack Coan – 15%
  • Kevin Austin – 11%
  • Offensive line – <1%

The staff went 75% for Williams, 17% for Mayer, and 8% for Coan. It clearly has to be Kyren or Mayer right now, and I’d give the edge to Kyren. Mayer has had some huge moments, no doubt, but Kyren leads him in total yards 570-360 and touchdowns 7-3. I also think Kyren’s max-level swagger is a key part of why this offense refuses to fold in crunch time.

Who will be Notre Dame’s defensive MVP?

  • Kyle Hamilton – 77%
  • Drew White – 7%
  • Marist Liufau – 7% 🙁
  • Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa – 6%
  • Isaiah Foskey – 3%

The staff vote was again similar, with 84% choosing Kyle, 8% MTA, and 8% Kurt Hinish. I think Hamilton is a pretty clear choice, but Isaiah Foskey is making a bid to make it interesting. With 6.0 sacks in 6 games, Foskey is quietly on pace to set a new Kelly Era high for sacks – the target is Stephon Tuitt’s 11.0 in 13 games in 2011. He’s also tied with Jayson Ademilola for third on the team in tackles. Good stuff.

Which unit will provide the play of the year?

  • Offense – 42%
  • Defense – 54%
  • Special Teams – 4%

67% of the staff tapped the defense versus just 25% for the offense and 8% for special teams. I don’t know that I could highlight any one play yet, but I guess I would lean towards the Drew White pick six that turned the Wisconsin game into a laugher. Maybe it was the Chris Tyree kick return score that seemed to snap Wisconsin in half. The Kevin Austin two-pointer against Virginia Tech could also be a season turning point when we look back at this again in January. This still feels pretty wide open.

Who will lead the team in touchdowns from scrimmage?

  • Kyren Williams – 74%
  • Michael Mayer – 11%
  • Kevin Austin – 2%
  • The field – 13%

66% of the staff picked Williams and 17% picked Mayer, with the remaining 17% going to the field. Kyren is threatening to run away with this (no pun intended); he has 7 touchdowns from scrimmage versus 3 each for Austin and Mayer and 2 each for Tyree and Davis.

Who will lead the team in receiving yards?

  • Kevin Austin – 53%
  • Michael Mayer – 22%
  • The field – 25%

Who will lead the team in receptions?

  • Michael Mayer – 74%
  • Kevin Austin – 16%
  • The field – 10%

This is sort of in play still and sort of not. Mayer leads the team in receiving yards with 360, but Austin isn’t that far behind at 317. Nor is Avery Davis, for that matter, at 307. So that’s still fairly open. Mayer has a big lead in receptions though; he has 32, with Kyren next at 19 and Austin and Davis after him at 18. If usage patterns are similar in the second half Mayer should take the receptions lead easily.

67% of the staff took Austin to lead in yards with 17% taking Mayer; like you, it flipped with receptions, with 92% for Mayer and 8% for Austin.

Who will lead the team in sacks?

  • Isaiah Foskey – 31%
  • Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa – 25%
  • Marist Liufau – 19%
  • Jordan Botelho – 6%
  • Drew White – 2%
  • The field – 17%

As we noted above, Foskey is in good shape here with 6.0 at the turn. MTA and Justin Ademilola are next with 2.0. The staff broke out as 33% for Foskey, 25% for MTA, 8% for Botelho, 8% for Liufau, and 25% for the field.

Who will lead the team in interceptions?

  • Kyle Hamilton – 55%
  • Clarence Lewis – 16%
  • Houston Griffith – 15%
  • Cam Hart – 8%
  • The field – 6%

50% of the staff took Hamilton, 33% took Lewis, 8% Griffith, and 8% the field. If, ahem, Hamilton were used optimally instead of sending him crashing into bogus roughing the passer flags, he might have a stranglehold on this stat. As it stands he has three picks, all in the first three games, while Cam Hart has two and Jack Kiser, Drew White, TaRiq Bracy, DJ Brown, and Clarence Lewis each have one.

Who will be the most impactful true freshman whose name does not rhyme with Snake Disher?

  • WR/PR Lorenzo Styles – 60%
  • OG Rocco Spindler – 12%
  • RB Logan Diggs – 8%
  • WR Deion Colzie – 7%
  • K Josh Bryan – 3%
  • QB Tyler Buchner – 2%
  • The field – 8%

I don’t even know how to pick a single most impactful freshman at this point, which is kinda bonkers. It’s not shoo-in Blake Fisher, who didn’t even get to finish two quarters before his season likely ended. It’s not Styles at this point, although he’s looked fine in limited action. Is it Buchner? Maybe – you could make a very good case that the Irish wouldn’t have gotten past Virginia Tech or (gulp) Toledo without his contributions. Is it Joe Alt, the other true freshman left tackle? He might be the answer here by the end of the season and make reliance on Buchner’s change of pace less necessary. If Chris Tyree’s turf toe lingers, does Logan Diggs build on his seven touch, 44 yard performance against the Hokies? It definitely won’t be Spindler, who hasn’t seen the field despite all the OL’s struggles, or Bryan, as Jon Doerer has clamped down his hold on the job quite securely.

What a year. The staff again voted similarly, with 67% choosing Styles, 25% Spindler, and 8% the field.

Over/Under

4.5 wins in first 6 games (@ Florida State, Toledo, Purdue, Wisconsin [neutral site], Cincinnati, @ Virginia Tech)

  • Readers: 92% over, 8% under
  • Staff: 100% over

5.5 wins in final 6 games (USC, North Carolina, Navy, @ Virginia, Georgia Tech, @ Stanford)

  • Readers: 36% over, 64% under
  • Staff: 25% over, 75% under

The first half line was really about whether you thought Notre Dame could get a split with Wisconsin and Cincinnati, and clearly almost everyone did. Well done. I posited preseason that many of you thought they would split with USC and North Carolina too, hence the voting on the second line. I took the over on the back end and I stick by it, dammit.

+190 point differential (post-2016 average: +187)

  • Readers: 54% over, 46% under
  • Staff: 33% over, 67% under

Unless the Irish just start obliterating people – which might be on the table – this is very likely going to hit the under. Notre Dame is +40 through the first six games, which means they would have to average a 21.4 point win over the final six plus a bowl game to get to +190. The defenses in the second half are much softer than in the first half; believe it or not, the average SP+ defense ranking of our first half opponents was 31st while the average for the remaining opponents is 72nd. So it’s possible the offense could get some breathing room, but this feels like a very heavy lift.

(The lowest ranked remaining, if you’re wondering, are USC at 83rd and Stanford at 95th.)

(Please please please.)

32.5 30+ yard scrimmage plays (post 2016 average: 32.3)

  • Readers: 65% over, 35% under
  • Staff: 46% over, 55% under

Notre Dame has been decidedly middle of the road thus far, with 13 such plays through six games. I think this line is in play though given the aforementioned softness of the defenses we’ll see the rest of the way.

Braden Lenzy vs. Kevin Stepherson’s pro-rated 2017 production (39 touches, 707 yards)

  • Readers: 36% over, 64% under
  • Staff: 42% over, 58% under

As I noted preseason, your vote here depends on your answers to two questions: Do you think Lenzy will stay healthy all season? Do you think he’s good enough to get to the mark?

He’s on pace to come close to the number of touches (15 through six games, 32.5 through 13) but nowhere near the yards (208 through six games, 450.7 through 13). Surprisingly, for me anyway, he hasn’t had any carries after being so deadly on jet sweeps in 2019. At this point the under seems overwhelmingly likely.

33% third down conversion defense (last year: 31.4%, 11th in FBS)

  • Readers: 56% over, 44% under
  • Staff: 67% over, 33% under

After a disastrous first few games in this metric the defense has really settled in, and currently sits at 31.9% on the season. They have some busts at times, but if they can continue to push this down and maintain the amount of havoc they’re generating… Whee! This year’s havoc rate is around 26%, which is exactly in line with last year’s while generating turnovers at almost double last year’s pace (14 in six games this year versus 17 in 12 games last year).

3,000 passing yards by Jack Coan (Ian Book last season: 2,830 in 12 games)

  • Readers: 63% over, 37% under
  • Staff: 42% over, 58% under

I think many of us would like to revisit this vote with the knowledge of how shaky the offensive line would be. Coan is averaging just over 200 yards per game, which if it holds will leave him well short of this mark.

2.5 consensus All-Americans for Notre Dame (first or second team)

  • Readers: 49% over, 51% under
  • Staff: 42% over, 58% under

Kyle Hamilton will make a lot of All American teams, no doubt. Cain Madden will almost assuredly not repeat. Michael Mayer should make it, and Kyren – particularly if he can open it up in the second half – might slip in. But right now this looks extremely likely to hit the under.

4.5 announcer chuckles over Kyren Williams undressing someone in the open field

  • Readers: 62% over, 38% under
  • Staff: 83% over, 17% under

Freaking blocking problems. I think Kyren earned one of these with his 10 yard score against Virginia Tech, in which he ran through at least 17 different guys by my count. He finally got a little room to run in that game, which is hopefully a harbinger of things to come.

14.5 mentions of Jack Coan’s lacrosse background

  • Readers: 74% over, 26% under
  • Staff: 83% over, 17% under

19.5 mentions of how Coan always wanted to go to Notre Dame

  • Readers: 69% over (nice), 31% under
  • Staff: 67% over, 33% under

10.5 in-game camera shots of an exasperated Brian Kelly

  • Readers: 67% over, 33% under
  • Staff: 42% over, 58% under

I haven’t gone back to check the film, but I’m pretty sure we hit the over on all of these by the second or at most third game. I should’ve been more aggressive in setting the line.

Prop Bets

We’ll see the first Power 5 coach canned in…

  • September: Readers 12%, Staff 33%
  • October: Readers 55%, Staff 58%
  • November: Readers 30%, Staff 8%
  • December: Readers 3%, Staff 0%

That first hot seat ejection will be…

  • Scott Frost: Readers 21%, Staff 33%
  • Justin Fuente: Readers 18%, Staff 8%
  • Herm Edwards: Readers 17%, Staff 8%
  • Dino Babers: Readers 12%, Staff 25%
  • Clay Helton: Readers 5%, Staff 0%
  • Jim Harbaugh: Readers 4%, Staff 8%
  • Jeff Brohm: Readers 3%, Staff 0%
  • The field: Readers 20%, Staff 17%

Scott Frost looked destined to wrap this one up, but Clay Helton once again snatched defeat from the jaws of defeat when USC moved to can him immediately after an embarrassing loss to Stanford. Kudos to all of you who voted for September and Helton; I’d be curious to know how much overlap there is there.

Frost, Fuente, and Babers most certainly are not safe. Herm could win the Pac 12 South, Harbaugh has Michigan on a (paper tiger?) roll, and Brohm is likely doing enough to be safe.

The first Power 5 COVID-related forefeit will occur in the…

  • SEC: Readers 38%, Staff 17%
  • Pac 12: Readers 25%, Staff 25%
  • Big Ten: Readers 17%, Staff 8%
  • Big 12: Readers 12%, Staff 33%
  • ACC: Readers 8%, Staff 17%

In what week?

  • Week 0: Readers <1%, Staff 0%
  • Week 1: Readers 10%, Staff 17%
  • Week 2: Readers 40%, Staff 42%
  • Week 3: Readers 32%, Staff 8%
  • Week 4: Readers 3%, Staff 0%
  • Later: Readers 14%, Staff 33%

I don’t think we’ve had one yet? My money is still on the Big 12 though.

Any Notre Dame player will finish higher in the Heisman voting than Ian Book did last year…

  • True: Readers 36%, Staff 36%
  • False: Readers 64%, Staff 64%

Umm… No.

More scrimmage yards for…

  • Kyren Williams and Braden Lenzy: Readers 51%, Staff 42%
  • Kevin Austin and Michael Mayer: Readers 34%, Staff 42%
  • Chris Tyree and Kevin Austin: Readers 15%, Staff 16%

At the halfway point, Williams/Lenzy have 778, Austin/Mayer have 677, and Tyree/Austin have 546. Not over but trending that way.

Jon Doerer will overtake Allen Pinkett as Notre Dame’s second all-time leading scorer (needs 111 points, had 93 last year and 108 in 2019).

  • Readers: 35% true, 65% false
  • Staff: 17% true, 83% false

Doerer has 44 points through six games, which means he would need 67 through the next seven to hit this. That seems highly unlikely, but nothing would surprise me anywhere in the country this season.

The final season stats will include more…

  • Pass attempts by Drew Pyne: Readers 47%, Staff 50%
  • Rush attempts by Tyler Buchner: Readers 53%, Staff 50%

Neck and neck! As of today Pyne has 30 pass attempts and Buchner has 26 rush attempts. It’s hard to look at the Virginia Tech game though without imagining that Pyne will take a back seat to Buchner the rest of the way, and that this will start to tilt heavily towards Buchner.

Notre Dame will have a top 20 SP+ offense and defense (last year: 19th offense, 20th defense).

  • True: 56% Readers, 58% Staff
  • False: 44% Readers, 42% Staff

Probably not. Right now the offense ranks 43rd and the defense ranks 13th. There is a timeline in which the offense figured something out against Virginia Tech and then runs roughshod over the rest of the schedule, but it’s hard to see it being that good no matter what they figured out.

Notre Dame’s highest ranked end-of-season opponent per the playoff committee will be…

  • #12 Wisconsin: Readers 32%, Staff 25%
  • #8 Cincinnati: Readers 28%, Staff 25%
  • #10 North Carolina: Readers 24%, Staff 25%
  • #15 USC: Readers 17%, Staff 25%

Yikes. As of today it doesn’t look like any of the wins, actual or potential, listed here will be ranked. Maybe Wisconsin can claw back in to the back end of the rankings, but it’s not great.

Notre Dame’s highest ranked end-of-season win (not counting a potential bowl game) will be…

  • Wisconsin: Readers 29%, Staff 25%
  • The field: Readers 71%, Staff 75%

As noted, maybe Wisconsin can get back in there. Right now though I think there’s a reasonable chance, maybe even a better chance than not, that the Irish won’t have a regular season ranked win.

Wrapping Up

What a long, strange trip it’s been. And we’re only halfway home. I couldn’t even begin to handicap what will happen the rest of this season, but I do know that this is a group of tough-as-nails kids who are fun to pull for. Let’s enjoy some cheeseburgers and get back at it refreshed and ready.