The other day we revisited our preseason predictions to see how our and your expectations had held up halfway through the year. Today’s we’re going to dig into 2017 by the numbers, and more specifically, by the numbers other than 2016. We tend to get hung up on comparing results to last year, but as even the most rosy-glassed of us said preseason, 2016 shouldn’t really be the benchmark for anything. So let’s take a look at how 2017 stacks up to other seasons in Irish history, both recent and not-so-recent.
The Georgia loss, both in the simple reality of it and the way it happened, was an absolute gut punch. Even in all my natural optimism I still dwell on it a bit from time to time and I’m still frustrated by how close we were in that game. Even so, I think that preseason any of us would’ve signed up without hesitation for a 5-1 start to the year. Right? Many expected us to get blown out by Georgia. Didn’t happen. Some expected us to stumble against Boston College or Michigan State. Most emphatically didn’t happen. Many expected us to play down to our level of competition, as has happened disturbingly often under Brian Kelly. Didn’t happen. As Friar Laurence said, “There art thou happy!”
And yet, with apologies to the good friar, we know that 5-1 didn’t happen just by good fortune. We know that we’ve run the ball much better than in years past, that we’ve defended much better, that we’re better in the red zone on both ends of the field, and so on. Let’s set that against some of the better years we can remember. Opponent adjusted numbers are always preferable, but there are three caveats here:
- I can only get those numbers back to 2005, which was the first year of S&P+.
- The guys behind S&P+ and FEI have both tinkered with their algorithms a bit over time.
- Both metrics for the current year still weight preseason projections at about 14%; the first fully current-season numbers come out in a few days.
So the comparisons here aren’t perfect, but they still have plenty of value
2017 Versus The Recent Past
The oldest year we can get advanced stats for also happens to be Charlie Weis’s first year, and the first of his two good teams. We’ll also look at Brian Kelly’s best Notre Dame teams, the 2012 and 2015 editions.
2005
Record: 9-3, #9 AP, #11 Coaches
Key offensive players: Brady Quinn, Darius Walker, Jeff Samardzjia, Rhema McKnight, Mo Stovall, Anthony Fasano
Key defensive players: Tom Zbikowski, Chinedum Ndukwe, Brandon Hoyte, Corey Mays, Maurice Crum, Victor Abiamiri, Derek Landri, Mike Richardson
Charlie Weis’s first year seemed to augur great things, especially given the epic battle with eventual national champion runner-up USC. Even a Fiesta Bowl loss to Ohio State did little to dampen enthusiasm.
2006
Record: 10-3, #17 AP, #19 Coaches
Key offensive players: Quinn, Walker, Samardzjia, McKnight, John Carlson, David Grimes
Key defensive players: Ndukwe, Landri, Abiamiri, Zbikowski, Crum, Richardson, Trevor Laws, Terrail Lambert
Weis’s second year was mostly respectable, but also was a substantial letdown for the AP’s preseason #3 team. This year’s resounding bowl loss, to LSU in the Sugar, did quite a bit to dampen enthusiasm.
2012
Record: 12-1, #4 AP, #3 Coaches
Key offensive players: Everett Golson, Tommy Rees, Cierre Wood, Theo Riddick, Tyler Eifert, TJ Jones, DaVaris Daniels, Zack Martin
Key defensive players: Manti Te’o, Louis Nix, Stephon Tuitt, Kapron Lewis-Moore, Prince Shembo, Dan Fox, Danny Spond
A magical season that saw a generational defense paired with every break going in favor of the Irish – until Baylor upset Kansas State and let Alabama back into the national title game, of course. Alabama’s win left a sour taste, but even so, finishing in the top 5 for the first time since 1993 was a very big deal.
2015
Record: 10-3, #11 AP, #12 Coaches
Key offensive players: Deshone Kizer, Will Fuller, CJ Prosise, Chris Brown, Josh Adams, Torii Hunter, Ronnie Stanley
Key defensive players: Jaylon Smith, Sheldon Day, Joe Schmidt, Max Redfield, Elijah Shumate, Keivarae Russell, Cole Luke, Mathias Farley, Romeo Okwara
Another good season that felt like a bit of a letdown, due largely to the fact that the Irish dropped every big game – to #2 Clemson by two, to #3 Stanford by two, and to #4 Ohio State by 16. Nonetheless, this was far and away the best offensive team of Kelly’s Notre Dame tenure, with future pros Kizer, Fuller, Prosise, Stanley, and Nick Martin.
Advanced Stats Rankings
| Year | S&P+ Rk | S&P+ Off Rk | S&P+ Def Rk | FEI Rk | FEI Off Rk | FEI Def Rk |
| 2005 | 8th | 3rd | 38th | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 20th | 8th | 59th | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 5th | 21st | 4th | 10th | 12th | 16th |
| 2015 | 7th | 11th | 34th | 7th | 8th | 57th |
| 2017 | 13th | 21st | 14th | 7th | — | — |
Note that FEI offense/defense stats won’t come out until Tuesday-ish, when the rankings with no preseason projections come out.
Counting Stats Rankings
| Year | Scoring | Rushing | Passing | Scoring Def | Rush Def | Pass Def |
| 2005 | 8th | 55th | 4th | 53rd | 34th | 105th |
| 2006 | 16th | 72nd | 13th | 67th | 61st | 60th |
| 2012 | 82nd | 38th | 72nd | 2nd | 11th | 25th |
| 2015 | 34th | 28th | 35th | 40th | 73rd | 27th |
| 2017 | 18th | 6th | 115th | 15th | 48th | 78th |
Counting Stats Per-Game Averages
| Year | Scoring | Rushing | Passing | Scoring Def | Rush Def | Pass Def |
| 2005 | 36.7 | 147.1 | 330.3 | 24.5 | 132.3 | 264.6 |
| 2006 | 31.0 | 125.7 | 264.1 | 23.8 | 136.8 | 203.4 |
| 2012 | 25.8 | 189.4 | 222.8 | 12.8 | 105.7 | 199.8 |
| 2015 | 34.2 | 208.3 | 258.5 | 24.1 | 174.8 | 197.8 |
| 2017 | 40.0 | 308.0 | 163.2 | 16.8 | 134.5 | 231.2 |
The counting stats should be taken with substantial grains of salt, since they don’t account for pace, opponent strength, national trends, etc. Look no further than scoring averages – the 2017 team’s average, which ranks 18th this year, would’ve been 4th in 2005. Does that mean 2017 offenses are better than 2005 offenses? No, they’re just different. And such is the danger of counting stats.
2017 Versus the Less-Recent Past
When we look farther back in the history books, it gets even harder to compare teams and eras – all we have is counting stats, and the landscape gets more different the farther back you go. Nonetheless, if you’re curious about how this edition of the Irish stacks up against known-good past editions, here you go. The national title seasons were an easy choice, but we also took some other great seasons for comparison. We’ll forgo national rankings here as they (a) aren’t so easy to track down as you go farther back and (b) are kind of worthless anyway given how much the context changes.
1964
Record: 9-1, #3 AP, #3 Coaches
Notable for: Ara Parseghian’s first year, John Huarte’s Heisman, 9-0 start
1966
Record: 9-0-1, #1 AP, #1 Coaches
Notable for: Parseghian’s first title, “The Tie” with Michigan State, wins over end-of-season #8 Purdue and #18 USC
1973
Record: 11-0, #1 AP, #4 Coaches (the final Coaches poll still came out before bowl games at the time)
Notable for: Parseghian’s second title, wins over end-of-season #4 Alabama and #8 USC, the first of Parseghian’s three straight wins against Bear Bryant
1977
Record: 11-1, #1 AP, #1 Coaches
Notable for: Dan Devine’s title, unanimous All-Americans Ross Browner and Ken McAfee, wins over end-of-season #4 Texas and #8 Pitt
1988
Record: 12-0, #1 AP, #1 Coaches
Notable for: Lou Holtz’s title, wins over end-of-season #2 Miami, #4 Michigan, #5 West Virginia, and #7 USC
1989
Record: 12-1, #2 AP, #3 Coaches
Notable for: Defeat of #1 Colorado in the Orange Bowl, wins over end-of-season #3 Colorado, #7 USC, and #8 Michigan
1990
Record: 9-3, #6 AP, #6 Coaches
Notable for: The “phantom clip” against #1 Colorado in the Orange Bowl, wins over end-season #3 Miami, #7 Michigan, and #8 Tennessee
1992
Record: 10-1-1, AP #4, Coaches #4
Notable for: Demolition of then-#3 Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl, four first-rounders in the following NFL Draft (#2 Rick Mirer, #10 Jerome Bettis, #17 Tom Carter, and #20 Irv Smith)
1993
Record: 11-1, AP #2, Coaches #2
Notable for: Defeat of then-#1 (and end-of-season #1) Florida State in the “Game of the Century”, second straight Cotton Bowl win over a top ten Texas A&M team
| Year | Point Diff | Scoring | Scoring Def | Rushing | Passing | Rush Def | Pass Def |
| 1964 | +210 | 28.7 | 7.7 | 190.9 | 210.5 | 68.7 | 137.6 |
| 1966 | +324 | 36.2 | 3.8 | 211.6 | 180.9 | 79.3 | 108.3 |
| 1973 | +292 | 35.8 | 6.6 | 350.2 | 111.2 | 82.4 | 118.8 |
| 1977 | +253 | 34.7 | 11.7 | 231.9 | 208.1 | 89.2 | 147.8 |
| 1988 | +224 | 32.6 | 12.3 | 258.0 | 130.0 | 112.4 | 167.9 |
| 1989 | +223 | 33.8 | 15.3 | 287.8 | 113.8 | 105.6 | 190.3 |
| 1990 | +101 | 31.8 | 22.6 | 250.3 | 166.7 | 123.2 | 267.1 |
| 1992 | +231 | 37.2 | 16.2 | 280.9 | 189.5 | 111.1 | 216.1 |
| 1993 | +209 | 36.6 | 17.6 | 260.7 | 168.8 | 89.5 | 227.5 |
| 2017 | +139 | 40.0 | 16.8 | 308.0 | 163.2 | 134.5 | 231.2 |
Note: The 1964 and 1966 teams didn’t play in a bowl game, and the 1973-1993 numbers do NOT include bowl games, which was standard at the time.
With the toughest part of the schedule ahead – as we’ll touch on in the final installment of this series – it’s certainly reasonable to believe that the 2017 numbers will become less favorable towards the end of the year. Performance to this point is still notable, though; there are plenty of times since 1993 that Notre Dame has had a first-half slate of similar quality, and they haven’t consistently squashed inferior teams like this year’s group has. If the Irish can achieve a second-half differential of +71, which is within reason, they’ll have their best differential since 1989. If they can get to +76, it’ll be the best since 1977.
I’m not arguing that greatness is predestined for the 2017 team. Just pointing out that the team has done some impressive work to this point, and that there are some very notable milestones still on the table for them. Eleven months ago, it was very hard to imagine us sitting at this point. Enjoy the ride, folks.
Ahem! Usc lost to Texas in 2005/ Jan 2006 NC game. Let’s not give them any NCs they didn’t earn!
Technically, USC didn’t beat anyone in 2005/2006
Unfortunately, we did still lose to them. Such is the stupidity of “vacating wins.”
UNC knows nothing about this
So stupid… I knew that, don’t know what happened to my brain. Fixed. I can still hear Keith Jackson saying Vince Young “just scored his third touchdown without so much as getting his britches dirty.”
Whoa Nellie.
Mo Stovall? Any relation to Maurice Stovall?
So many spelling and grammar errors in this post. Definitely an off week
Huh?
Do you want me to point them all out to you or…?
Agreed that this team is exceeding expectations so far. Plus, no major long-term injuries, and the bye seems to be coming at a good time for the nagging injuries that have hit the team (especially the RBs). Certainly reason for optimism.
I think we might have a pretty good sense of whether this season is a success or not by October 29th – if we win both, I can’t imagine 3 losses in November, but if we lose both, we’re probably not running the table either. And there is no “successful” 8-4 season to be had, especially where things stand now.
Pretty fair thoughts. I think a 3-3 second half would definitely be a big letdown, even given the quality of the schedule. We’ll almost certainly be underdogs against Miami and favored against everyone else (today we might be underdogs against Stanford, but I’m assuming that will flip by late November).
A 4-2 second half, while still mildly disappointing, would be pretty respectable. 5-1 or better, and I challenge anyone to find a fan disappointed with that. Well, actually, no I don’t, it wouldn’t be that hard to find someone. But you know what I mean.
I’d be frustrated with less than 5-1. This team just isnt the one I thought it would be going into the season so my expectations for them have changed. I thought we’d be a 7-win or so team before the year because I was worried about our secondary and DL but they have been a major blessing. I also thought that our running game would be less than it is currently and that the same old “play down to competition” stuff would still be true. Almost all of that is a distant memory. In that vein, I expect us to pound the hell out of inferior teams which I can see 4 of those left(Navy, Wake, NC St, Stan) and I expect us to be favored against SC because of their lackluster performances and the fact that they’re on the road later in the season. The only remaining concern will be Miami, but outside of a close win against a major rival(rivalry game mentality applies) who have they really impressed against? Three garbage teams and two of those at home. I think we’ve shown more this season than the Convicts.
And what were your expectations for Wimbush’s passing? Our receiving core? Did you anticipate Temple, UNC, and Miami(OH), to have such down years?
We are stronger than expected in some areas, but also weaker in others and just haven’t played completion that could take advantage for the most part. Furthermore, while I think our increased turnover margin is more than luck, I’d be shocked if a bad turnover game doesn’t hit at some point. Against better competition that could cost us.
Oh, and don’t sleep on NC State, there’s almost no chance we beat them by blowout.
Do you watch any CFB other than ND? Navy controls the ball too much to really get pounded by anyone, plus they’re undefeated; Wake has given EVERYONE trouble this year; NC State looks downright good; and Stanford somehow always gets embarrassed in September then runs the table in October and November – and how long has it been since we pounded the heck out of Stanford?
I’m not trying to make excuses for this ND team to stumble down the road, but I think any rational college football fan would have to be fine with a 4-2 finish.
UNC did nothing wrong in no-show diplomas for athletes per the NCAA. What a joke of an organization.
The short version of the apparently successful defense is that *anyone* could have obtained a no-show diploma.
Why, exactly, is the NCAA tax-exempt again?
SI’s legal analyst tweeted something about that – said the next time the NCAA’s tax-exempt status, which is based on being an educational organization, comes up before Congress the UNC case is going to be a serious problem for them.
Do the NCAA’s findings make UNC’s accreditation a serious concern? If any student can get a no-show diploma…why does that diploma hold any weight?
If you google UNC accreditation investigation, there are plenty of articles to go through. Short answer, this was already happening. Quoted and linked the first decent article (without reading too much).
“UNC also is on probation from the commission that accredits it, the result of an academic-athletic scandal involving classes that never met and didn’t have a professor.
This week, the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools Commission on Colleges will revisit UNC’s accreditation status. The commission has three choices: end the probation, continue it for a second year, or take the unlikely step to revoke the university’s accreditation.
The accrediting agency initially opted not to sanction UNC when it first looked at the classes in 2013. But last year, after reading a report from former federal prosecutor Kenneth Wainstein, accreditation officials said two UNC employees had not revealed all they knew about the classes.”
http://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/education/unc-scandal/article83202092.html
I keep coming back to the same thing. CW’s teams were offensive juggernauts. They never had a defense to balance them out. BK started out with good offenses balanced by good to great defenses. I still think this guy has a shot at doing it right at ND. He had a horrible year, sandwiched by some pretty good years, with some mediocre years mixed in. I realize this year has a long way to go, but I see a decent year at worst playing out the rest of the year.
I’m still optimistic about BK as the head coach.
Im walking back on my desire to see him gone, but he still has a way to go for me.
That’s fair enough Clearwell. I’m not claiming he’s DarthbSaban or the snake oil salesman. I just think his good has been really good, I freely acknowledge his bad has been pretty atrocious though.