Between the injuries and losses piling up and less than artful offense in the wake of it, this season has been a slog. It started as a promising victory lap for the best 4-year run in Notre Dame history but came off the rails quickly in conference play. It shifted from exciting potential to the uncertainty of a 7-man roster to the dead-man-walking slog of of a 7-game losing streak, to now a fight to the finish for relevance and tournament life. If we’re lucky, it can morph one more time to a redemption story.
We’re going to go a slightly different direction here today than we have in the past. In this post, we’ll preview Saturday afternoon’s tilt in Chestnut Hill, provide a few things to watch for and maybe even predict a few story lines. We’ll try to offer some useful insights after the game here as well (which assumes we’ll have some useful insights), but regardless, this post can open the comment section for all things associated with this game. Let us know in the comments what you think and we’ll adjust accordingly!
What It Means
The Irish enter the game at 5-8 in conference play and battling for their lives. Assuming we fall to Virginia on the last day of the regular season, Notre Dame’s path to 9-9 includes winning it’s next 4.
The good news: The cavalry is here! DJ Harvey is back after a 1-month absence and rumors are that Bonzie Colson is (slightly) ahead of schedule and could be back soon as well.
Boston College is KenPom’s 76th ranked team and toughest (non-Virginia) road game left and KP would suggest that a win on Saturday is less difficult than a home win vs. Miami on Monday, making this the hardest of the four must-wins remaining.
What I’m Watching For
- DJ Harvey’s return! Let’s start with the hopeful things to watch for. Without Harvey on the floor over the last month, the offense has sputtered. Outside of the point guards, Harvey was one of the only players who looked comfortable with the ball in his hands for more than a dribble or two, which added an additional threat to the offense. Yes, he was up and down in his 19 games this year but I’ll be watching to see how much his mere presence on the court helps create for everyone else.
- Matt Farrell – Chucker. The 2nd most important thing I will be watching is whether senior captain Matt Farrell reverts to chucking the ball at the rim as we saw in Chapel Hill. Regardless of defenders or situation, Farrell grew impatient and launched repeatedly from deep. Farrell is a dangerous weapon if deployed smartly, but he can be his own worst enemy on the court. Whether or not he stays in control and lets the game come to him or pushes outside his comfort zone to take the game on his shoulders will be a fascinating watch.
- Supporting Cast – The supporting cast has shared its ups and downs over the last month. Between Nik Djogo, John Mooney and Elijah Burns, someone(s) has had to fill in behind our main four of Farrell, Gibbs, Geben and Pflueger (plus now Harvey). It was Mooney’s turn on Monday against UNC and even his absolute heroics weren’t enough. Can someone step up to compliment the core group and can the core take advantage when one of those three delivers?
- Ky Bowman vs. Jerome Robinson – In South Bend, it was Robinson’s turn to shine. He went for 46 points in 40 minutes on a ridiculous 7-12 from downtown, while previous Irish killer Ky Bowman was held to just 11. Who’s turn is it Saturday? Can they both get going at once?
What other things are you watching for on Saturday? Match-ups? Mindsets?
Predictions
Saturday’s game is either a pick’em or BC -1, so no line is needed for these projections. The total is set at 143. Place your bets in the comments section below:
- ND +1 vs BC?
- ND/BC over/under 143?
- Matt Farrell total shots over/under 15.5?
- DJ Harvey total minutes over/under 16.5?
- Ky Bowman total points over/under 17.5?
- Austin Torres turnovers + fouls, over/under 4.5?
I think I’ll take the Irish in a close one but this is about as coin-flip as they get.
What are you watching for on Saturday? Matchups? Body language? Let us know in the comments below!
It’s weird, you wouldn’t think of Chestnut Hill as being a major advantage but they’ve taken down Duke, Miami and FSU there and only lost 2 games. They also haven’t beaten anybody else with a pulse so there is that. BC actually might be a little closer to the bubble than the Irish right now, they don’t have any bad losses (Irish have 2-3) and they have better marquee wins. The Irish do have the better non-conference resume and more decent wins.
ND +1 vs BC? – ND, Harvey comes back and Farrell feels less pressure to be the offense
ND/BC over/under 143? – Over, this seems low, not great defenses and they scored over 180 in South Bend.
Matt Farrell total shots over/under 15.5? – Under, he’s averaging around 13 on the year and Harvey is back
DJ Harvey total minutes over/under 16.5? – Over, with the exception of the first Farrell return, Brey is usually good about waiting to his guys are fully healthy before bringing them back
Ky Bowman total points over/under 17.5? – Over, but who knows
Austin Torres turnovers + fouls, over/under 4.5? – Under, Torres won’t be getting enough minutes and BC doesn’t throw it down into the post enough for this to happen
This could be a great story. One should note that among those 4 teams left are 2 of the bottom feeders of the ACC (Wake and Pitt). If we could pull off 4 in a row and make the tournament that would be great. Even then who knows how Bonzie would be, but even at 90% we could pull of a couple of wins with the right matchups. Let’s go Irish!
What in the hell is happening? Matt Farrell is absurd.
Not to complain too much, but where was this on Mon? He’s sooo streaky…
Well that was a nice half. Gotta finish here but it’s a good lead into Monday night. Offense had some good trips but was largely just Farrell shooting the lights out. Disappointing that Harvey is still out, but if we get good Farrell, it won’t matter much. Harvey much more necessary for when we get bad Farrell.
Also of note, 10 threes is the record…within range (obviously)!