Oxford of the West. Abercrombie University. Big Bentown. Cradle of Coaches. Mother of Fraternities. By all these names (and more) is Saturday’s opponent known.
Storylines of the Day
(A) A MAC MADE IN HELL
We all saw what happened two Saturdays ago. The much-ballyhooed Irish waltzed into their home opener looking to make mincemeat of the NIU Huskies. Man of the Year Thomas Hammock and his band of merry seniors had something to say about that. The faceplant could not but evoke the similar effort of 103 Saturdays prior, when honorary MAC squad Marshall, also laden with aged players, laid waste to the well-being of the 2022 September Irish.
Marcus Freeman’s winning percentage against ranked teams is .667. His winning percentage against MAC and Honorary MAC schools is half that. Can the Irish jump all over these Redhawks and push this bugaboo back into the laundry room for the rest of the year? Or are the hardy souls at the Stadium tomorrow in for a very, very, very fraught afternoon?
(B) Rudy 2: The Curse of the Gold Helmet
Chuck Martin on the opposing sideline makes this a prime candidate for entry into the “Homecoming Moment” gallery of heartwarming victories at ND’s expense. Films you may remember such as:
- The “Biggest Win in this Program’s History” anthology series featuring Tulsa, USF, Marshall, NIU, etc.
- The “Finding Vindication on a Return to Old Stomping Grounds” series featuring Skip Holtz, Zach Frazier, and more!
- The “Crowd Shots of Opposing Fans in Red” thematic spectacular a la Nebraska, Georgia and Cincinnati
These omens and opportunities don’t have any actual bearing on the game (we hope), but it would be awful to lose this one!
(C) Whither The ND Offense?
It was the best of times it, was the worst of times. We lead the nation in rushing yards against Power 5 teams, rate incredibly highly in explosives on the ground, etc. And yet: no one is going to feel like this is a “real” offense until we start throwing some damn TDs to damn wide receivers.
Speaking for myself, I think a clearer picture is rounding into form of where we are really strong:
* We have a running game that is very dangerous. Three runners who can break explosives at any time, and when they break explosives they can go the distance
* We are able to get at least two of these runners on the field at all times, and in some cases all three
* We have 1.5 good blocking TEs (is Davis Sherwood still on the team?)
* We have a decent complimentary short passing game, especially vs man coverage (we can use motions and shifts to get easy pitch and catches to big bodied runners in the flats, mainly)
* Line is generally assignment sound and fairly athletic if not overpowering
Here’s what we’re missing:
* We have no demonstrated ability to beat zone defense with the passing game
* We have no demonstrated ability to hurt teams deep
If I were Miami OH, I would keep in single high zone looks for the most part and try to keep a lid on the explosive runs (rather than trying to aggressively shut down the running game altogether). You can happily take your chances on a penalty, DL penetration, etc. getting us into 3rd and long, then you go into a basic zone and stand a good chance of getting off the field. I think we will see more big nickel (or even big Dime) type personnel more than traditional 4-3 type stuff even when we go with 12 or 22 personnel because the fear of getting Love, Price or Evans matched up on a linebacker. That’s maybe a plus for us as it plays more to our strengths as a blocking unit than would going against a bunch of thumpers, but we’ll see.
Anyway, in my mind the specific things we need to see from ND in the passing game this week to feel good heading into Louisville week are the following:
1. DO NOT be worried about getting the deep shot game working right now. I think it might be a prohibitively expensive thing to get good at at this point in time with this roster. Anyway, it actually facilitates our “fastest route to the most points” to have the defense stack the line (e.g., play shallow but, critically, spread to defend the width of the field) as that’s how missed tackles or blown run fits turn into TDs. Contrariwise, getting more 2-deep looks might increase our rate of 10+ yard runs but lower the odds to 20+ game-changers
2. We desperately need to get good at some bread-and-butter zone beaters, especially vs. 1-high looks (e.g., RB rail/sheel/wheel stop routes, high/low outside route combinations, TE/slot seam, etc.). You feel like we should be able to win on depth crossing routes and square ins as well. If we can get really good at moving the chains with a couple of these concepts we will can put 2nd level defenders in conflict and be very tough to stop
3. I would LOVE to see a “traditional” spread triple-option type look with Leonard, Price and Love on the field all at once. Leonard has a great feel for the flow of the running game. Both Price and Love have the acceleration and cutting ability to be truly dangerous pitch men. Love seems more suited than Price to the dive portion of things, but I think Price is plenty good. This is also very expensive to get good at, especially if you want to get to the actual payoff space of being able to wrinkle through optioning different players, etc. Maybe just an internet flight of fancy but if I were a DC on the schedule I would not want to see this on film.
PREDICTION
Chuck Martin has been at Miami of Ohio a long time. By the end of this regular season, Martin will have coached two fewer games at Miami than Lou Holtz did at ND. The man has found the seret to longevity, with a .467 overall winning percentage, but, critically, a .586 MAC winning percentage and notching three conference titles, including one last year. He may have had this game circled on the calendar for a long time, but the team almost certainly hasn’t eaten/slept/breathed it like NIU did all offseason.
On the other sideline, ND existentially needs this game. They nigh-existentially need it to be a comfortable win.
I think we will see ND come out fast in the first quarter, an ulcer inducing mid-1st half stretch where Miami has the momentum, but ND will pull away.
NOTRE DAME 38
MIAMI (OH) 14
Nice combo, Mike: scary tales from our past to make us shiver, plus very good insightful analysis and hopeful wishes about our offensive schemes.
As for their offense vs our defense, I think I read they have a very abysmal running attack? Or did I get that wrong.
Halloweentown USAs start going up, we start bringing the scares here at 18S.
Yes, their rushing attack is as bad as bad gets. Sneaky common theme between Marshall and NIU – really talented RBs keeping them on schedule, down and distance-wise
ND has the burden to win and look good doing it. Miami wants to keep it close and hope they can pull out a victory in any way. A single digit loss being gaining them a pat on the back. Can’t you envision a 2nd Qtr. 7-0 lead and Leonard missing an open target on 3rd and 7, drawing some boo birds. Nationally anything less than a 20 pt. win hurts come December. That’s what the NIU game has wrought.
Good tickets still available
And, to toot my own favorite topic, if anyone is going to the game, I’m interested in your evaluation(s) of how the efforts to keep the crowd in the game and energized play out.
I wouldn’t worry about style points at all.
In December 11-1, even ugly as hell in the 11 (I guess 9, since 2 are not ugly wins) and with the 1 loss to NIU, will get the job done. Lose again and you’re out.
It’s true that 11-1 and we’re in. But I think the style points would help with seeding. The more we dominate these lesser teams the stronger resume we’ll put together to hopefully get that coveted home playoff game. And maybe strong enough domination of games would still have the 5 seed in play.
So while we might not be good enough to *worry* about style points (or maybe better termed something like “domination points”) it seems like they might have an affect on seeding.
As far as TDs to WR, or passing TDs at all, it appears that the longest stretch by a starting QB without a passing TD is Carlyle Holiday back in 2002.
Didn’t throw a passing TD until 2nd quarter of the fourth game, so 13 quarters without a passing TD. Leonard is at 10. There’s a chance to make history here!
Funny thing is ND won those first three games with some weird luck: lots of FG, defensive TDs, etc.
Soooo close to making history. I guess maybe he did. Or tied or something.