Miami is back in South Bend for the first time since 1990! That game (see the highlights below) saw the Irish give then No. 2 Miami their only regular season loss from September 15, 1990 until October 9, 1993. Yeah, the first era of “Da U” was a sight to behold. Notre Dame got its punches in with victories by 1 and 9 points but Miami landed some heavy blow with wins by 20, 18, 51, 24, and 17 points from 1983 to 1990.

That visit up north in ’90 was the last until the series was resumed via the Sun Bowl to conclude the 2010 season, followed up by a Shamrock Series game at Soldier Field 2 years later.

Miami (-2.5) at Notre Dame

Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, October 29, 2016
Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET
Television: NBC
Series: 17-7-1 Notre Dame

The Hurricanes are in a different, although not completely changed, situation since we last saw them in 2012. Then head coach Al Golden slumped to a 7-5 finish that season before picking things up to 9-4 in 2013. However, the end of his tenure saw all momentum stopped, including losing 7 out of his final 11 games culminating in the school’s worst loss ever 58-0 to Clemson.

Georgia fired Mark Richt last December and Miami quickly scooped up their former quarterback. The outlook to begin 2015 was quite positive with a 4-0 start against an admittedly meager schedule. In recent weeks, the Canes went from ACC Coastal favorites to 3 straight losses and out of the national rankings.

3 Matchups to Watch

Irish Receivers vs. CORN ELDER

DeShone Kizer has been in a bit of a funk. With a hurricane in the middle duly noted, since the middle of the 3rd quarter in the Syracuse game Kizer is 29 of 62 (46.7%) for 244 yards, 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He desperately needs a strong game to gain back confidence.

Lining up on the other side may be the best corner on the Notre Dame schedule in CORN ELDER (his name must be typed in all caps) who flirted with leaving for the NFL in the off-season but has come back in a big way for his senior season.

How the Irish receivers can get open against all of the other defensive backs may be key. CORN ELDER has 7 pass-breaks ups and according to this PalmsBeachPost.com article has only surrendered 132 yards on passes thrown his way with a miniscule 23 yards after the catch.

Forcing Turnovers against Miami’s Offense

Miami’s defense has been horrid at causing turnovers, probably the one area they’ve really been poor this season. In fact, Notre Dame has caused more turnovers (9 vs. 8) in comparison!

The big problem for the Irish is that Miami is excellent at protecting the ball. So far, they’ve only lost 2 fumbles and their 7 total turnovers is tied for 10th nationally. Don’t expect Brad Kaaya to cough up many interceptions, either. He’s only thrown 10 over his last 585 attempts.

Make Brad Kaaya Beat You

Miami’s two-headed monster of Mark Walton and Joseph Yearby look like very good running backs on the surface. They’ve combined for 1,097 yards so far at a healthy 5.9 yards per carry. However, a closer look reveals a different story.

For one, Walton has been basically shut down after putting up big numbers against weak competition. In Miami’s 4 ACC games he has 203 yards at 3.1 yards per rush. Yearby is definitely more of a big-play guy and has runs of 41, 42, and 27 yards in recent weeks while his other 35 carries in ACC play is averaging 3.6 yards per rush. This is why S&P+ isn’t all that impressed with a national run game ranking of 58th.

Miami is modestly effective at creating medium-to-long passing plays but they aren’t supported by a run game with a real good success rate. They’re like Notre Dame just a tick less explosive in the air and a tick better on the ground.

2 Sides of the Line

Mark Richt walked into a ton of experience on the offensive line for his first season in Coral Gables. Junior left tackle Trevor Darling (6-4, 320), redshirt sophomore left guard Kc McDermott (6-7, 308), junior center Nick Linder (6-3, 305), and 5th-year senior right guard Danny Isidora (6-4, 305) combined for 47 starts last year and have started every game so far in 2016.

Redshirt junior right tackle Sunny Odogwu (6-8, 325) made 8 starts last year and the first 5 this fall before going down with a broken leg. He has been replaced by redshirt freshman Tyree St. Louis (6-5, 305) over the past couple weeks.

Miami is led by former 5-star and current junior defensive end Chad Thomas (6-6, 265) who returned to practice this week after missing the Virginia Tech game with an upper-body injury. He’s also playing through a broken hand and has 8 tackles for loss in 6 games. In his place, true freshman Joe Jackson (6-5, 230) got his first start but has played a lot this year with 4.5 sacks so far.

Redshirt sophomore defensive end Demeitrius Jackson (6-3, 265) also missed Miami’s last game with a knee injury and is questionable this Saturday. He has put up 5.5 TFL and 2 sacks in 6 games played. If he can’t go the Canes will turn to junior Trent Harris (6-2, 250) who made 10 starts last year and has totaled 4.5 tackles for loss in 2016.

On the interior, Miami will rely on 3 main players. First, sophomore Kendrick Norton (6-3, 305) has been super productive with 7.5 tackles for loss. Next to him another sophomore RJ McIntosh (6-4, 290) has held his own with 6.5 tackles for loss. The third player inside is redshirt sophomore Gerald Willis (6-4, 285) who has 5 TFL in just 4 games.

1 Prediction

We haven’t seen too much talk about Miami being overrated. I chalk that up to our own business being quite the mess more than anything else. Under normal circumstances–you know like the Irish being something other than awful–there’d probably be a lot of smack talk about the Canes being entirely beatable, especially coming off 3 straight losses.

Since Miami is 4-3 I was interested to see what their F/+ rankings looked like in recent history. Just looking at the raw numbers this will be the Hurricanes’ 13th straight year with at least 3 losses in each season. For reference, that’s the exact length of the Davie/Willingham/Weis eras at Notre Dame and Miami hasn’t had the benefit of a few major bowl games and some national relevance like we did.

Even with a 93-65 record since 2004 there have been some real quality Miami squads even if it hasn’t exactly displayed itself on the field and manifested into more wins. The one thing from the above chart that jumps out immediately is that Miami is well respected and Richt has improved them immediately.

Brad Kaaya has intrigued me for a while. During the Miami summer preview I mentioned how he was one of those true freshmen who could come in and look respectable out of the gate, and correspondingly, a few in the national media just lost themselves over his potential. However, Kaaya really hasn’t progressed and the hype has kind of died down lately. He was supposed to be the run away best quarterback on the Irish schedule and now that’s entirely debatable.

His quarterback rating as a freshman was 145.88, then 142.10 as a sophomore, and now sits at 149.53 through 7 games in 2016. He’s pretty much the same player then versus now with a healthy yards per attempt, similar accuracy, and a 2.5:1 touchdown to interception ratio. As a runner, he’s pretty much a statue with 3 non-sack carries for 1 yard. His rushing stats in 2015 were pretty much the same, too. He’s pretty much the definition of solid but not spectacular.

Kaaya’s also been dealing with a mysterious shoulder injury and as crazy as this would’ve sounded a few weeks ago I think this Notre Dame defense can keep the Canes in check. Like the Irish offense, Miami has been terrible on 3rd down and Notre Dame is kind of respectable (39th nationally in 20+ yard plays given up) at keeping the the big plays down this season.

On the other side of the ball, Miami’s defense is going to be a huge advantage coming into this game as the 18th best in S&P+ and 21st best in FEI defense. Pound for pound, it’s the best Notre Dame will have seen so far this year–Virginia Tech is ranked a little higher and they’re coming in a few weeks.

Injuries could hold the Canes back on defense where upwards of 5 starters are hurt, could be limited, or might not play. They’ve also turned to 3 true freshmen linebackers in Shaquille Quarterman, Michael Pinckney, and Zach McCloud* this season which makes me wonder if the Irish offensive line could finally put it together, get to the second level, and block their way to an impressive rushing attack on Saturday.

*I’m pretty sure these 3 linebackers are part of a near two-decade long University of Miami incubation project in an effort to return Da U to past glory. It’s the most Florida names ever that give it away. 

More likely, Notre Dame is going to really struggle with Miami’s havoc and disruption. The Canes are 1st nationally in tackles for loss and 20th in sacks–I’d be shocked if the Irish offense really put together a highly productive effort.

The good thing for Notre Dame is that they’ve generally played well coming off a bye (1 loss in the last 6 games after a week off) and I kind of like the situation this Saturday. The Canes are banged up, lacking confidence on offense, and there’s a possibility they don’t deal well with the atmosphere in South Bend–although the weather is supposed to be pretty gorgeous for late October in Indiana.

I really want to pick the Irish here but they’ve shown zero ability to beat good teams with really good defense.

Notre Dame 20

Miami 27