The bye week is over and before I turn my attention to the Miami Hurricanes it’s time to finish up the mid-term grades for the Notre Dame defense. Last week the scores were not very friendly for the Irish offense with lots of disappointment and underachieving. Remember, I’m using an expectations grade as my baseline–perhaps the defense will look better through 7 games?
DEFENSIVE END
Expectation: C+
Current Grade: D+
This unit was one or two average to sub-par games by Isaac Rochell away from straight failing the mid-term. As it is, Rochell saves the day in that regard. However, one could probably say that even Rochell hasn’t had the impact many thought he was capable of as a senior. His numbers are pretty solid (32 tackles, 6 tackles for loss) and he’s had moments of really strong play, too.
Still, I think it’s fair to say he hasn’t reached his ceiling yet. Rochell’s 9 quarterback hurries is a great mark for a strong-side end–if only a few of those could have been translated into more havoc created on the quarterback.
I really thought the trio of Trumbetti/J. Hayes/D. Hayes would surprise this year and right now it’s been an abysmal disaster. On a production to snap ratio Trumbetti is likely the worst player on the defense. Daelin Hayes has been solid at getting off blocks and dirtying his nose 5 to 10 yards down field but hasn’t been a threat in the backfield. Meanwhile, Jay Hayes dealt with an ankle injury earlier in the season, and despite hype from Brian Kelly that he’d play more, hasn’t been a factor.
Only 0.5 tackles for loss and 0 sacks from the weak-side defensive ends. An entire top to bottom review of this position, from recruiting to coaching, is due this off-season.
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Expectation: B
Current Grade: C+
Like most of the Irish defense the defensive tackles suffered the most from a lack of consistency. At times, we’ve seen bursts of really good play from each of our three main contributors: Jarron Jones, Daniel Cage, and Jerry Tillery.
Can you say there’s been more than that? We recently saw Jones display his ability to wreck an entire snap from start to finish against Stanford. Otherwise, his last year of eligibility has been pretty meager. Jones has been able to increase his work load which is nice, in comparison, Daniel Cage started out the season looking like he was becoming the #1 option at nose guard but has fallen off a bit in recent weeks.
We knew Tillery was going to be a sizable step down from the effectiveness of Sheldon Day. Through 7 games, Tillery is sitting at 24 tackles and 3 tackles for loss with 2 quarterback hurries. Again, at a position that should be providing a ton of havoc there’s been very little disruption.
LINEBACKER
Expecation: B
Current Grade: B
We spent all off-season wondering if the linebackers could be better without Jaylon Smith and if that would lead to an improved defense. Maybe we were half right!??
The run fits for this unit aren’t great, things can get pretty sloppy there at times. Such is the lasting impact of the VanGorder era. Otherwise, there are a lot of positives to take away from the linebackers. You have James Onwualu practically playing at his ceiling and it’s easy to forget he was a converted receiver sometimes. Year one of Nyles Morgan has been a success, while Coney is doing good things with some help from my boy Bilal.
All together, the linebackers are making the most tackles–which they should they’re doing their job–but they also have a combined 15 tackles for loss which is a nice number to see from the group.
CORNER
Expectation: B-
Current Grade: C
This is a really tough group to grade. Before the season I think the belief the corners were going to be good was growing. Luke was poised for an excellent senior season, Crawford was coming back from injury and could be the team’s best defensive back, and there were plenty of good things to say about Nick Coleman. If past was any indicator the defense only needed 3 really good corners to thrive and it seems like the pieces were there.
Well, things changed. Of course the season-ending injury to Shaun Crawford played a role. Luke has cobbled together a few shining moments but looked pretty bad more than he’s risen to the occasion. Life of a corner these days, I suppose. I don’t know what to say about Nick Coleman other than in recent weeks he looks like someone whose confidence is completely destroyed and might not come back until spring ball.
I don’t know if this is a good or bad thing but the freshmen corners as a collective have looked about the same as Cole Luke in 2016. Sure, Luke hasn’t really performed at a high level yet it’s heartening to know a handful of young corners are this productive at such an early age. This will be a huge talking point this off-season.
SAFETY
Expectation: D
Current Grade: C-
I’m grading on a curve for this one if only because the players have been dealt a raw hand. Even with Max Redfield in the fold for the season I’m not sure if this expected grade would’ve been much higher. This position is on at least a 2-year run of putting athletes in positions they shouldn’t be forced to deal with either due to inexperience or athletic limitations. Bless his heart but we’ve seen Nicco Fertitta get a bunch of snaps at safety and that seemed impossible–even with the poor depth known before the season–just a couple months ago.
The two main starters, Tranquill and Studstill, have more or less done what we thought they could do given their limitations. Tranquill has been a steady presence near the line of scrimmage when called upon and poor in coverage. As a freshman we couldn’t expect much from Studstill and he’s been okay. For goodness sake, even Fertitta has had a couple nice moments.
In truth, this group’s ceiling has either been “hey, get in position to discourage the quarterback from throwing the ball in that direction” or coming up and making a sound tackle. I suppose they are passing that test more than failing it.
***
If you take the average of FEI and S&P this 2016 Notre Dame defense is roughly the 50th best in the country. You could look at it in several different ways. The pessimist could say that number is flat out unacceptable and egregious. The optimist could say things have been trending pretty well over the last 3 games. Looking at things in the middle of the season like this it still feels like a really poor, haggard unit.
There have been plenty of discussions about talent or lack thereof and I don’t wish to rehash those today. The challenge right now is that the Irish are essentially coming out on Saturday’s with a black hole at weak-side defensive end and very little playmaking ability at safety. Not the greatest set up in the modern game, don’t you think? In some twisted way, given those constraints, you could make the case this defense is doing some good things (especially lately) but there are still numerous challenges ahead against some good quarterbacks that are going to determine if this is a struggling unit with some promise for next year or if the hurt is likely to continue through next fall.
Amazingly, this analysis appears to be quite generous to our defensive ends and cornerbacks.
Certainly generous on some grades, but nothing too bad. It’s frustrating to remember in the heat of games, but the secondary is mostly so young, hopefully they gain experience for next year. More disappointed in the front seven (and mainly line) being pushed around and generating next-to-no pressure, allowing QB’s all days to find coverage breakdowns.
Sadly this will probably only get worse in the 2nd half of the season with the best 2 QB’s we’ll see upcoming in Kaaya and Sam Darnold who’s numbers are silly [66.7% completion, 8.89 yards per attempt, 13/2 TD/INT]. And the Virginia Tech offense under Fuentes has been making some strides too. Probably will take 35+ points to win any of the games against the non-service academy teams left on the schedule, and that might have me the one being generous. Tough to have much confidence in this defense, even though it deserves to be pointed out that they did play really commendable against Stanford (though it might have been different if McCaffrey was healthy). Maybe, just maybe some aspects are pointing north enough under Hudson to take pressure off the offense (and playcalling) that’s collapsed under the weight of expectations that they’ll need to score 35+ to have a shot.
“Only get worse” should have an asterisk with an annotation that states “doesn’t necessarily apply for any defensive group who is no longer being coached by BVG.”
Honestly, our defense has looked light-years ahead of where they were to start the year. I only wish the offense hadn’t taken a nose dive at exactly the same time they were improving.