Midpoint Musings: Notre Dame’s 2019 Second Half Preview

Most of us expected great things from the Irish this year, and we’ve gotten pretty good things that feel a little disappointing. In an odd way that’s an excellent sign of how well the program has rebounded from the 2016 debacle – if your fan base feels unfulfilled by a 5-1 start that includes a rivalry win and a hard-fought road loss to a top team, you’ve set the bar relatively high. Since the 2017 opener the Irish have gone 27-5, which is just behind 1992-93 for the second best three-season win percentage of the last 30 years (.844, vs. .851 from 1991-93). A 6-0 finish and a bowl game win would push the 2017-19 win percentage to .872, the highest since 1987-89’s .892. It would also set a program record for most wins in a three-year window (34) and tie the two-year record (24). So some history is on the line for the stretch run.

We already revisited our preseason predictions; we were awesome and dead-on about everything, you don’t have to check. Today we’re going to take a look at the remaining Irish opponents, which is not exactly a murderer’s row. In fact, if the Irish get past the big, secretive weasels of Ann Arbor next week, they should almost [knocking furiously on every piece of wood in sight] coast to an 11-1 regular season. Yes, even with a trip to Stanford looming as the finale.

We’ll start with the advanced stats rankings for each opponent on the schedule. In previous years we used SP+ and FEI; I still like FEI, but I’m going to swap it out this year for ESPN’s FPI rankings, just because FEI is much slower to update and I need to get stuff published. We run an exceedingly tight ship here at 18S, after all.

For reference, Notre Dame ranks 19th in SP+ and 11th in FPI.

Numerical Notes

First, some things to point out from that table:

• In the first half of the season, we faced the top three and bottom three offenses on the schedule per SP+ and three of the top four offenses per FPI.
• We also faced two of the top three SP+ defenses on the slate and two of the top four FPI defenses.
• Our first half opponents’ average S&P+ rank is 62nd, while their average FPI rank is 60th.
• Our second half opponents’ average S&P+ rank is 51st, while their average FPI rank is 56th.
• Statistically speaking, Michigan’s defense and maybe Navy’s offense (the triple option can do weird things to advanced stats, so it’s hard to be sure) and maybe maybe Duke’s defense are the only non-mediocre units the Irish will face the rest of the year.

And a few tidbits based on counting stats (BOOOOOOOO COUNTING STATS!) as well:

• Georgia ranks 15th nationally in yards per carry allowed and Virginia ranks 9th. We ran for 46 yards on 14 carries against Georgia and 178 yards on 35 carries against Virginia. Go figure. Michigan ranks 17th, about 1/4 yard per carry behind Virginia. Navy is tied for 15th, just ahead of Michigan. The next highest ranked opponent is Duke at 40th.
• Conversely, Notre Dame ranks 19th nationally in yards per carry on offense – and remember that the “pop” passes to Avery Davis and Chris Finke against New Mexico aren’t included in this total. If they were, the Irish would be ranked 7th. Hmm.
• A small sampling of teams who rank ahead of Michigan in the same stat: Georgia State, Coastal Carolina, New Mexico, Florida International, Ohio, Texas-San Antonio, Vanderbilt, East Carolina, Ball State, Troy, Liberty. (Michigan is 91st.)
• Notre Dame ranks 5th nationally in tackles for loss per game. The highest past opponent is Virginia at 9th, while the highest remaining opponent is Navy at 45th.
• Notre Dame is one of just three teams to have scored on every red zone trip this season, joined by LSU and Iowa. The Irish also rank 4th in red zone TD percentage, hitting paydirt on 19 of their 22 trips into the red zone this year. They rank a so-so 51st in opponent red zone TD rate, but they also have the 7th fewest red zone opportunities allowed.

The Rest of the Slate

We touched on this a bit in the prediction review article, but man, does this back end look less daunting. As it turns out: Michigan showed signs of life this past weekend but still has a lot of holes and question marks. Virginia Tech is bad. Duke is kinda OK but less OK than we expected. Navy is maybe a little better than we expected, but we didn’t expect much. Boston College is worse than we expected, even though we didn’t expect much, and just lost their QB for the year. Stanford is probably bad and certainly not very good. Any given Saturday, yada yada, but it’s hard to look at this group and find more than one loss assuming that the Irish remain focused and healthy.

Which, you know, is a pretty big assumption. But still.

Oct. 26 – at Michigan

This was supposed to be the year that Jim Harbaugh shook off the offensive malaise that has enveloped Michigan nearly since his arrival; new OC Josh Gattis would finally catch the offense up to the Don-Brown-led defense and glory awaited, or so we were told by nearly every media outlet and of course the Michigan faithful. However, we at 18S and a handful of more careful observers around the country were far more skeptical. The defense lost a ton of elite talent and looked perilously thin in a few key spots, most notably the entire defensive line. Meanwhile, Harbaugh had handed the keys of the offense to a guy who had never called plays at any level, and was saddled with a roster ill-suited to the ill-defined system he wanted to run. My favorite preseason comment from Gattis was essentially “we’re going to do everything really well and specialize in nothing.” Mmm hmm.

Halfway through the season, we feel entirely justified in saying we told you so. Michigan sits at 5-2 with an obliteration at the hands of Wisconsin and a closer-than-it-should’ve-been loss to Penn State. Plus an overtime win over Army. Aside from the second half against Penn State the offense has largely looked inept, staffed with MANBALL linemen who can’t move in space the way Gattis wants them to and a QB who can’t reliably get the ball to his receivers in space or anywhere else. Their run game has been, charitably, ineffective. The defense has been vulnerable on the inside and in the secondary at times, in large part because they’re feeling the losses of Rashan Gary, Chase Winovich, Devin Bush, and David Long, among others, and are perilously thin along the defensive line. Who could have guessed??

Yes, this game is Ann Arbor, where historically some weird stuff has gone down. Yes, it will be loud. Yes, I fully expect Michigan to get some home cooking from the zebras, as they always do. Yes, there’s a chance they could pull their collective poop together for one full game, as they did in the second half against Penn State. But I’m not ready to believe they can be consistently good, and Notre Dame matches up with them too well – particularly the Irish DL against the Skunkbear OL – for me to think Michigan will win. They could, sure, but I think this is going to be a fun night for Irish fans everywhere. Keep in mind too that if – if – Brian Kelly gets a chance to go for the jugular, we don’t play them again in the foreseeable future and he really, really, really hates them. Just saying.

Nov. 2 – vs. Virginia Tech

I have to hand it to Justin Fuente – he has a little Rasputin in him. Tech went 6-7 last year, including a loss to Old Dominion; in the first month of this season they lost to Boston College, were in very real danger in the final minute against FCS Furman, and got blasted by Duke. Then, of course, they went on the road to Miami and won, then posted six-overtime win over resurgent North Carolina. Go figure. Miami is probably bad this year and North Carolina is rebuilding, but still, not a bad mini-turnaround for a season that was clearly on the brink.

So what’s the real story here? Well, Virginia Tech is still bad. Sorry, Hokies fans. The defensive guys who were forced to play early last year but hey, at least they’ll be experienced this year! haven’t really developed as one might have hoped. Between Miami and North Carolina they faced Rhode Island, another FCS team, and only led 24-17 through three quarters. Their secondary has had some serious trouble this year and their offense has moved in fits and starts. New starting QB Hendon Hooker – an erstwhile ND target – has injected some life into the offense, but overall there are just too many holes on this team right now.

The Carolina win may have energized them a bit and they get to rest up this week while Notre Dame takes on Michigan. But the Irish should still be able to avenge the 2016 home loss to the Hokies.

Nov. 9th – at Duke

Last year, Duke QB Quentin Harris looked like, well, not much when pressed into action for two early games against Baylor and FCS North Carolina Central. In those two games, Harris completed 47% of his passes for an anemic 6.6 yards per attempt. He also rushed for 117 yards on 19 carries in those games, which seemed like it would be the way for him to stress defenses in 2019. He has looked much better as a passer this year, but his performance can be split into two clear buckets: good against FCS North Carolina A&T, Middle Tennessee State, and Virginia Tech, bad against Alabama, Pitt, Georgia Tech, and Virginia. I think we can make a reasonable assumption about which bucket the Notre Dame defense falls into.

Still, despite getting blasted by a Virginia team that Notre Dame beat handily, this is certainly not a game to look past. Duke has a reasonably competent offense and a better defense, with four front seven guys who have at least 5.0 TFLs (Notre Dame has six, if you’re wondering). The headliner is edge rusher Victor Dimukeje, with 6.5 sacks, 7 QB pressures, and a forced fumble on the season. They’ll face a key road test at North Carolina before a bye week, then face the Irish at home. This game will likely be determined to a large degree by how well the Notre Dame offensive line can neutralize Dimukeje et al.

Nov. 16th – vs. Navy

The Attempted Murder of 1,000 Cuts is back. Whee! Navy might – and I stress might – be better than we expected preseason. Malcolm Perry, who came into this season as a career 37% passer (not a typo), has completed 65% this year (also not a typo). Small sample size warnings abound on both numbers, as he came into this season with just 27 career passing attempts (25 came last year as a part-time starter) and has only 37 this year through 6 games. Whether he reverts to the mean as a passer or not, the real threat Perry poses is of course on the ground; he may well be the fastest Navy QB Notre Dame has ever faced. You may have forgotten his 12 runs for 133 yards against the Irish last year, but you shouldn’t. He’s dangerous.

That said, the triple option is what it is, efficient and occasionally explosive, and Notre Dame has more experience facing it than just about non-service academy opponent Navy might meet. The real surprise this season is Navy’s defense, which had been awful for the last couple of seasons and has been average this year. “Average” in this case represents a pretty substantial improvement. Notre Dame still has a very large talent advantage and should be able to move the ball effectively, but we know how that sometimes goes. And hey, guess what? Navy has a bye week before this game.

Nov. 23rd – vs. Boston College

The assumption on Steve Addazio has long been that Boston College would have limitless patience for his endless parade of 7-6 seasons because they understood their station in the college football world. That endless parade seems in very real jeopardy of not being endless, though, as the Eagles are now 3-4 overall and 2-4 against FBS competition with road trips to Clemson, Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Pitt still ahead. Yikes. Alarm bells went off after a 24-point home loss to Kansas (which is not Kansas State); a 21-point win over NC State this weekend may have quieted those bells some, but it won’t take much to get them going again.

In years past, Boston College has leaned on a solid defense and a grinding running game to work through their schedule. The running game is still there this year, powered by former Notre Dame target AJ Dillon; Dillon is a load for anyone to handle and is arguably the top power back in the country. Unfortunately for him, the defense is not there – Rutgers is the only FBS opponent they’ve held under 24 points and, well, that’s Rutgers – and the already troubled passing attack took a major blow when QB1 Anthony Davis went down for the year recently. The NC State win recalibrates things somewhat, but there’s a possibility they could lose out – a home date with Florida State splits the four road games mentioned above, and the Eagles likely won’t be favored in any of those matchups. Helpfully for their game against the Irish, at least, they’re off the week before. I mean, what the actual…

Nov. 30th – at Stanford

ALERT: STANFORD DOES NOT HAVE A BYE BEFORE THIS GAME. Finally! Unfortunately for the Cardinal, that is very, very far from being the only positive thing for Notre Dame heading into this contest. Stanford is in terrible shape as far as health – two OL have been lost for the season and another’s return is uncertain, and QB1 KJ Costello and QB2 Davis Mills have each been in and out of the lineup with injuries.

WR Michael Wilson and TE Colby Parkinson are the main skill position threats for the offense – they’re good athletes who can make stuff happen after the catch. WR Connor Wedington is a key part of the offense too but he’s more of a reliable guy than a guy you have to plan around. Cameron Scarlett is their leading runner and has shown flashes, but he hasn’t had a lot of room to run behind that OL. Pass protection has also been a disaster (sensing a theme?), which is a big part of why Costello and Mills have been banged up.

I would’ve said their defense might be something they could rely on in most games, but that was before they gave up 263 rushing yards to – I swear I’m not making this up – UCLA. UCLA doubled up the Cardinal 34-16, and also doubled their win total on the year by beating the Cardinal. Not exactly an auspicious performance by David Shaw’s defensive charges.

Could this be a replay of the 2018 Stanford game? Let’s be reasonable, folks. It’ll be a worse beating than that one.

Postseason Possibilities

The playoff still theoretically is a possibility, but with a softer schedule than expected and a loss to the one truly good (maybe) team on the schedule Notre Dame would need a lot of help. Like a metric poop tonne of help. We won’t get into those scenarios here; they all involve a fair amount of chaos and there are lots of ways that chaos can happen and plenty of time for whatever chaos is necessary and/or possible to change, so there’s not much point. What we would do instead is encourage you to just enjoy this season. Notre Dame is 27-4 over the last two and half seasons and has an excellent chance to be at 33-4 headed into bowl season. In that run would be multiple wins over USC, Michigan, and Stanford, and the first time we’ve beaten all three of them in the same season since 1989. That’s a remarkable and fun stretch of football, and it’s OK to acknowledge that and enjoy it.

The arrangement of the New Year’s Six bowls this year is as follows:

• Fiesta Bowl/Peach Bowl – Semifinals
• Rose Bowl – Pac 12 champ vs. Big Ten champ
• Sugar Bowl – SEC champ vs. Big 12 champ
• Orange Bowl – ACC champ vs. the highest-ranked available team out of the Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame
• Cotton Bowl – two at-large bids as selected by the playoff committee

If a conference champ gets into the playoff, its associated bowl game will generally select the next highest-ranked team from that conference. So, hypothetically, if Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma all win their conferences and make the playoff, the Sugar would take the SEC #2 and the Big 12 #2, the Rose would take the Pac 12 #1 and the Big Ten #2, and the Orange would take the ACC #2 and the highest-ranked of the SEC #3, the Big Ten #3, and Notre Dame. The Cotton would end up with the top Group of 5 champ, who has to go somewhere and in this year the Cotton is the only “somewhere” they can go, and whoever else the committee puts in, likely the highest-ranked available team.

Would the SEC #3 or Big Ten #3 be higher-ranked than an 11-1 Notre Dame? Probably not. I think. So if I had to lay money on it, I’d say the Orange against North Carolina or Wake Forest or something like that would be our most likely destination. If Notre Dame wins out and either of those #3’s does end up higher-ranked, it’ll be the Cotton Bowl against probably Boise State. None of those is exactly a goosebump-inspiring matchup, but it would be some karmic justice for constantly getting matched up with the most talented and angriest team available.

If I told you preseason that we could head into the offseason at 12-1 with an Orange Bowl win under our belts, would you take it? I think we all know the answer. Let’s just enjoy how we try to get there.