We are set to conclude the 8th edition of the College Football Playoffs this Monday night live from Indianapolis as the powers-that-be finally decided a place outside of a warm weather region could host the National Championship Game. Too bad Notre Dame couldn’t have made the trip down south in their own state for this game.

The first playoff back in 2014 started off really freaking fun. That was also the last time at least one SEC team didn’t make the title game. For me, it feels just like yesterday but that Alabama-Georgia overtime thriller for all the marbles was 4 years ago. Now, they meet again for league, regional, and national supremacy.

Georgia (-2.5) vs. Alabama

AT&T College Football Playoff National Championship
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Indiana
Date: Monday, January 10, 2022
Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN

For Nick Saban this improves his ridiculously stupid and mind-boggling run for the Crimson Tide, without question the greatest run and dynastic era for any coach at a single program. Saban made one BCS Title Game with LSU, appeared in 3 more BCSNG’s with the Tide, and is entering his 6th College Football National Championship Game.

He’s played 9 do-or-die games for a championship and won 7 times. Absurd.

Ahead of our Rose Bowl meeting in the semi-finals last year I noted this about Saban and his players:

His players have won the following individual awards: 2 Bednarik Awards, 2 Biletnikoff Awards, 1 Nakurski Award, 3 Butkus Awards, 2 Doak Walker Awards, 3 Maxwell Awards, 4 Outland Trophies, 2 Rimington Trophies, 2 Walter Camp Awards, and 2 Heisman Trophies.

You can go ahead and add another Maxwell, Davey O’Brien, Nagurski, and Heisman to that list from 2021. And this is supposed to be a down year for Alabama, so they say.

Following 9 years under the tutelage of Saban, we’ve witnessed Kirby Smart successfully take over and thrive as the head coach at Georgia now coming off his second SEC Coach of the Year honor. As he closes out his 6th season in Athens, Smart is comfortably the winningest coach in school history (minimum 2 years) and is currently winning at a clip of 0.821 compared to Vince Dooley at 0.715 and Mark Richt at 0.740.

Yet, Georgia is 0-4 against Alabama with Smart as their coach suffering a somewhat shocking 17-point loss to the Tide in the SEC Championship just 37 days ago. It’ll be that recent history, plus the decades-long stench of futility in the biggest games that Georgia looks to overcome Monday night for their first title in 41 years.

Most Talented Championship

It’s a strange time. For the casual fan this is probably the biggest “no-name” Alabama team in a number of years. They’ve dealt with injuries at running back and wide receiver, plus even Bryce Young’s Heisman run* never truly felt special in any way, sort of winning by default. Defensive end Will Anderson should be a household name but many of the defenders for the Tide aren’t huge national stars…yet.

*Young’s passer rating (173.69) is 5th best in the Saban-era behind Tua 2019 (206.93), Jones 2020 (203.06), Tua 2018 (199.44), and McCarron 2012 (175.20).

Speaking of no-name, that was basically the moniker for this Georgia defense whose most high-profile player Jordan Davis is a nose guard with nose guard statistics. Their best receiver has been hurt and barely played all season, their backfield is missing sure-fire NFL future starters like they’re accustomed to using, and their quarterback is a former walk-on who left Georgia only to come back and eventually win the starting job.

However, in terms of blue-chip ratio this may be the most talent-packed National Championship Game, perhaps ever. For the last 5 recruiting cycles (2017-2021) Alabama has finished 1st, 5th, 1st, 2nd, and 1st nationally while Georgia has finished 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 1st and 4th.

I suspect once many of these younger players make it to the NFL we’ll be looking at this game a lot differently in terms of how much talent was on the field.

Dawgs Enough on Offense?

Georgia’s defense was so good during the regular season–and their schedule not particularly compelling enough–that no one really needed to criticize the Dawgs offense too much unless you wanted to project things to the highest level of the sport. That high level came in the SEC Championship and while Georgia’s offense did some nice things they looked a lot more ordinary than you’d hope.

For certain, there should be plenty of criticism of Georgia’s defense, too. They gave up 14.8% of their season yardage and a crazy 30.3% of their points allowed in the loss to Alabama!

Still, when you close your eyes it’s so hard to see this Georgia offense coming up big and winning this game. In this day and age when it seems like a non-starter to win a title without an elite quarterback and receivers they don’t have either piece in place. Although, their tight end Brock Bowers is legitimately better than Michael Mayer.

Too Much Rat Poison

If I was Kirby Smart and Georgia I’d be livid that we’re favored in this game. They were 6.5-point favorites in the SEC Championship and Alabama covered easily with a victory. Now, Vegas is still riding that black and red wave keeping them solidly 2.5-point favorites.

My gut instinct is that this is crazy but it’s so crazy it smells fishy.

In Georgia’s favor, I like that they have a full game of scouting to come back with a much better defensive effort and frankly I’m sure many, including Vegas, are banking on just that. Also, the Tide have to be pretty worried that receiver John Metchie (97 yards, 1 TD in the 1st meeting) got hurt late in the SEC Championship and isn’t playing.

You could argue Alabama was doing whatever it wanted on the ground against Cincinnati but through the air they were really struggling at times to free up receivers against the Bearcats terrific top 2 cornerbacks. I’m figuring Georgia will scheme up something to bother Alabama’s offensive line that, first meeting aside, has looked shaky for most of the season. Add in the loss of Metchie and there’s a recipe for a really bad Bryce Young passing performance.

The bar has been set so high and for so long that it’s hard to judge this Alabama team. It seemed like this year was finally one of those seasons where they were on cruise control and complacent far too many times. Then you look up and here they are in the title game again with the No. 2 SP+ offense and No. 10 SP+ defense.

Their defense especially hasn’t looked up to snuff at times this year. Traditionally, Saban’s defense have struggled against mobile quarterbacks and if you don’t have that you’ll need weird things like turnovers or the game to be shortened dramatically with long drives and field goals. Georgia doesn’t have a mobile quarterback and can’t be too excited at how their vaunted defense matched up with Alabama’s offense in the first matchup.

I cannot in good conscience bet against Nick Saban in this spot. But, I think this will be a very close game.

Georgia 24

Alabama 27