Alabama and Ohio State are wrestling for the recruiting championship but it won’t be the Buckeyes participating on the field for the National Championship. Following one of the best wins in recent years, Clemson comes storming back for another title shot in a re-match of last year’s championship game.
Clemson (+6.5) vs. Alabama
Monday, January 9, 2017
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Who Are You (#1 Alabama 14-0)
The Tide faced a challenging opening to their 2016 schedule and kicked the door down with a 46-point beat down of eventual Rose Bowl champion USC. They swatted away a sneaky-good Western Kentucky game then overcame a possible third straight upset to Ole Miss only to cruise in the second half after a big comeback.
Since week 3, Alabama hasn’t really been challenged. Kent State and Kentucky were both blown out, as was Arkansas who piled on a bunch of garbage time points.
Point Differential: +391
Rushing Average: 5.71 YPC
Yards Per Play Differential: +2.66
F/+ Rating: #1
S&P Offense: #9
S&P Defense: #1
FEI Offense: #17
FEI Defense: #1
The next three game stretch looked like an upset could be lurking. Then, Tennessee was destroyed, A&M calmly dispatched, and Alabama slowly ground LSU to dust with a 10-0 shutout victory. Mississippi State and Chattanooga were demolished by a combined 82-6, and while the Iron Bowl was entertaining for a brief amount of time, the Tide won that by 18 points.
Florida scored first in the SEC Title Game then lost by 38 points. In the CFB semi-final Washington also scored first but were shutout the rest of the way in a not-so-close 24-7 loss. Alabama comes into the National Championship riding a 26-game win streak, tied for the 18th longest in NCAA history.
Who Are You (#3 Clemson 13-1)
Clemson’s run to the title game has been far more rocky but they are peaking at the right time. The Tigers gutted out a tough road win at Auburn 19-13 to open the season and struggled with a sneaky good Troy team. Interestingly, both Alabama and Clemson opened the season with major bowl opponents and very good Group of 5 opponents. The Tigers got on track with an easy 59-0 win over South Carolina State.
Georgia Tech didn’t pose much of a challenge but Louisville did in one of the season’s best games that Clemson took by 6 points on their home field. On the road, Boston College was dominated in every facet by 46 points.
Point Differential: +314
Rushing Average: 4.47 YPC
Yards Per Play Differential: +1.72
F/+ Rating: #2
S&P Offense: #6
S&P Defense: #6
FEI Offense: #8
FEI Defense: #9
Mid-October questions began popping up as Clemson barely beat NC State and did the same against Florida State. They did destroy Syracuse 54-0 but were upset at home by Pittsburgh in mid-November.
However, Clemson wasn’t ever really in trouble of missing the ACC Title Game, and thus, a likely spot in the playoffs. They finished up beating Wake Forest and South Carolina by a combined 91-20 and always had the ACC Title Game in hand with a 42-35 win over Virginia Tech. The Tigers’ 31-0 victory over Ohio State in the playoff semi-final handed Urban Meyer the first shutout of his career.
Clemson heads into the title game winning 30 out of their last 32 games.
Top 3 Story Lines
Firing Lane Kiffin
A distracted Lane Kiffin (he accepted the FAU job on December 13th a mere 18 days before the semi-finals) was always going to be a huge story line, and potentially season imploding one at that, for the Crimson Tide. Despite only 14 passes and 50 runs the cries that running back Bo Scarborough wasn’t getting enough carries (season-high 19 attempts, by the way) and an inept passing offense (57 yards) fueled Saban’s decision to move on from their offensive coordinator.
In steps another former USC head coach Steve Sarkisian who was hired on September 5, 2016 as a special assistant to the offense. It might be the bold change Alabama needs or something to completely blow up in their faces on the game’s biggest stage.
Clemson’s Revenge
I was watching a college football program this past Friday while home on a snow day. One of the pundits was saying that Clemson needs to win this game because they aren’t elite until they get some hardware. Keep in mind, the Tigers have won 2 straight ACC titles (3 overall under Swinney), 5 straight bowl games, and 3 major bowl games in recent years in addition to two straight National Championship appearances.
Clemson is clearly elite but since 2012 (when Swinney really kicked the program into gear) the Tigers are tied for 3rd nationally in winning percentage with Florida State and only behind Alabama and Ohio State. All 3 other programs have won a title within this time frame. While the Clemson program remains on solid foundation you never know what the future brings. Another loss to Alabama and a missed opportunity at the big ring could be heartbreaking but also offers a ton of reason to fight tooth and nail for a win.
Saban’s Chase for History
Most expected a Saban vs. Meyer rematch from the 2015 semifinals but now Urban takes a back seat in the chase for history. Now 6 losses in 5 years for Meyer, sorry man.
With a win tonight, Nick Saban can put down a historical hammer with long-lasting reverberations.
A defeat of Clemson gives Saban his 5th National Championship at Alabama, and his 6th title overall over his last 12 seasons in college football. No matter how well you recruit this is insane.
Over/Under: 50.5 Total Points
These teams combined for 85 points last year so this is a massive change in the over/under. Interestingly, the Clemson offense was supposed to be better than last year although that hasn’t exactly panned out. Their 4.47 rushing average (tied for 62nd nationally with Notre Dame and Cal) against an Alabama defense giving up only 2.0 yards per rush (best in the country by almost a full yard!) is a red flag that the Tigers might struggle to get 20 points.
Taking the under is a safe bet, especially with Alabama’s true freshman quarterbacks struggles through the air in the semi-final. Then again, almost 10 of the Tide’s 39.4 points per game are the direct result of special teams or defensive touchdowns. Deshaun Watson has 17 interceptions this year, so maybe take the over!
Player to Watch: Clemson TE Jordan Leggett
Saban knows how to gameplan against receivers better than anybody but the tight end position is always a little more tricky. Leggett is only 4th on Clemson in overall receptions but his catch average (16.44) is second among their top pass-catchers. What’s more, his 78 yards in the game last year against Alabama are his second most in his career.
Alabama Scapegoat If They Lose (Besides Kiffin/Sarkisian): WR Gehrig Dieter
From Washington High School less than 6 miles from Notre Dame’s campus, Dieter has been on quite the journey throughout his career. He totaled more than 2,000 receiving yards as a high school senior but curiously signed with SMU where he’d transfer following a freshman campaign with 10 receptions.
At Bowling Green, Dieter caught 129 passes in 2 years and decided to grad transfer to Alabama this past off-season. He isn’t a huge part of the Tide offense (15 receptions) but he was targeted often in the semi-final with only 1 catch. If that repeats itself in an Alabama loss Lord help this kid.
Game MVP: Alabama LB Tim Williams
There are bigger and more popular names on the Tide defense like Jonathan Allen, Reuben Foster, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Yet, Williams is another freak beast who is set up perfectly to have a huge game at his JACK (think Diaco’s old CAT position) position on the edge.
I’m not even talking about a breakout game, either. Williams has just 21 solo tackles on the year but within that he has 16 TFL, 9 sacks, and 12 quarterback hurries.
Prediction Time
I love the revenge factor in this game for Clemson as these big games tend to even out under normal circumstances. Alabama can’t possibly win all the time, right? These aren’t normal circumstances, though.
Deshaun Watson is going to need an enormous game. He’s capable, no doubt. Watson should go over 10,000 career passing yards in the title game and comes in with 112 overall touchdowns in less than 3 full seasons. The way Clemson demolished Ohio State may lead one to believe he’s ready to topple the Crimson Tide.
However, Watson didn’t really play great against the Buckeyes (316 total yards, 3 TD, 2 INT). Sure, you can win a lot of games with that type of quarterback production but that might not be enough against Alabama.
A while back I wrote a piece on Alabama 2016 being in contention as the best team ever. Their defense belongs in that discussion and is up there with Saban’s 2011 unit that allowed only 106 points in 13 games, no Power 5 team scored more than 14 points against, and finished with a ridiculous 3.32 YPP defense.
This Crimson Tide offense is highly suspect when put up against the greatest ever. Something is troubling about a true freshman quarterback doing all of this. It just seems like–with the Kiffin fiasco–that it will make so much sense if Alabama finally lays a huge egg on offense and Dabo Swinney runs away with his sought after National Championship.
Bottom line, I can’t pick against this Tide defense and let’s be clear they’re still really good on offense too.
I’ll go with Clemson – 24-10 … No statistical justification available other than that this is the type of offense Alabama has struggled with in the past (he said with hopes that nobody will challenge him on that).
Are there any articles out there with some funny stuff on the Kiffin firing? Everything I have read seems to toe the line about it being mutual, blah-blah. Boring! I’m sure nobody wants to p*ss off Saban before the big game. I did read that the team bus left the stadium without him (again!) after the OSU game. Perhaps an opportunity for NDMSPaint to resurrect one of his funniest efforts ever???
errrr….Washington, not OSU
Most of the CFB podcasts I listen to call BS on Kiffin leaving “by mutual agreement.” Probably the sort of thing they couldn’t necessarily say in print, but discussing it on air it’s like “yeah right” and “with Kiffin saying the things he was saying, it’s not shocking at all. Only Kiffin could burn bridges like that while still walking across them.”
Good stuff Eric. I think Clemson will keep it close, but so much has to go right for them to win – no turnovers from Watson, slowing Bama’s run game (not the strength of the D), running the ball just enough to keep the Tide D off balance…. as good as the Tigers are, it’s just a lot of small to medium disadvantages in every area besides their pass defense.
Great article Eric. I am banking on Bama’a offense being in total disarray after, not one but two failed USC coaches, pulling a USC and destroying itself. Luke Skywalker will push the aiming mechanism thingy away from his face, use the force, and destroy the the death star, causing Dart Sabban to spin away offscreen signaling the end of the reign of the evil empire.
I know, not very probable, but a man can dream can’t he?
Bama’s too efficient to be the Death Star. Rated very highly, considered scary, but always has one small fatal flaw that gets exposed, only for them to come back again in a newer form and have the same thing happen? Sounds more like Oklahoma to me.
Alabama 35-17, in a game that isn’t as close as the final score. I’ll take the over on 50.5, concerning it’s so low but I see a lot of fireworks. All you need is at least 12.6 total points per quarter and I can definitely see that happening.
I think Alabama will win. I think Clemson has a good chance and it wouldn’t be a shock if they won, but I think there’s a lot of last-game bias going around the mediasphere right now. Ohio State wasn’t that good this year, despite their record, they should have been blown off the field. That they were a favorite was a joke. But Clemson certainly had it’s downs as well this year. Bama was, well, Bama. Boringly excellent. I think Clemson comes out strong and puts up a couple of quick TDs, but the Bama boa constrictor slowly chokes the life out of them. Watson will throw a dumb interception, which he does fairly regularly this season, and Bama’s D will take it to the house, because that’s what they do. And Bama will win by 10 or so.
More interestingly, though, is what’s going to happen if Bama loses? A Bama win and it’s “Nick Saban, greatest CFB coach ever” (which I find hard to argue with even before the game.) A Bama loss? I can see the “Oh, the dynasty is ovahrrr!!” headlines already, which I find ridiculous. Hate him or loathe him, Saban is amazing and I don’t see this ending any time soon. USC ran off the rails, got full of themselves, and Carroll skipped town ahead of sanctions. The great Miami runs ended similarly. Ohio State, tattoo gate. But Bama keeps chugging along and getting BETTER. Since 2009, Bama’s first NC under Saban, they’ve won 4 of the last 7 titles. Even with a loss, that’s 4 of the last 8. Personally, I think it’s harder now to win titles than back in the days of Leahy or the Bear. And he’s won 5 (4 at Bama, 1 at LSU), not counting whatever happens tonight. I don’t care what advantages you have, that’s incredible. Recruiting staff bigger than the faculty, greyshirting, blueshirting, paisley shirting, cute coeds on “faxcam” duty on signing day, the ability to have a bullpen of former head coaches as “analysts” and NFL players volunteering to be on your scout team on their off weeks–all of those are “legal” whether we agree with it or not, and I can’t even be mad or hate Saban anymore. I just applaud and hope he gets tired of it all soon and retires.
Yes, gets tired of it all soon and retires. Or, decides to show the world how great he really is and comes to ND and shows the world he can do it anywhere.
Yeah, I know, no chance. A man dream though right?
Saban is 65. I highly doubt he’s interested in going anywhere.
Also, he’s on his, what, 4th OC and 3rd or 4th DC since he’s been at Bama? Most recent “dynasty” type runs haven’t weathered coaching turnover like that, much less player turnover like Bama has. “The Process.” Clemson’s getting processed here in the 2nd Q.
Saban is 65???? He looks amazing for all of the stress/yelling he’s put through on a daily basis.
Never been happier to be wrong.
Possibly not true, but I’m not taking stock right now.
Under looking strong right now.
Long live rebellion!!!
How much would we like to have Dabo Swinney as our coach instead of Brian Kelly? SO MUCH
Yeah, he’s not exactly what you’d call a “cultural fit”
Why not?
And maybe that can be a good thing?
The NDN types flipped out over “shanty Irish” Brian Kelly, I can only imagine how they’d react to a good ol’ southern boy who goes by “Dabo”
Or holding Baptisms on the practice field. Well, they’d probably be fine with baptisms in principle, but not good ol’ Southern-style dunkings.
Do we know this isn’t heat exhaustion?
Well, since it comes up when you google “Clemson WR baptisim” and an assistant coach tweeted the picture out stating how proud he was that DeAndre Hopkins decided to receive baptism, then yes, I’m pretty sure we know this isn’t heat exhaustion.
Everyone in the picture does seem to be wearing their church clothes…
[I can’t figure out how to attach this picture of a banana riding a motorcycle I found on Google to show you I have a banana that can ride a motorcycle. ]
Are you saying you think I’m making this up?
Um…okay.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/clemson-wr-deandre-hopkins-baptized-at-practice-sets-school-receiving-record-two-days-later/
Not at all. Just busting chops. Slow at work today.
Ah, carry on then. I was just confused as to what motivations you might think I have.
And you post a picture here by just posting the URL in the comment. The interface does the rest. Most of the time.
Is that Bobby “Big Banana” Petrino?
I think his evangelical Southern Baptist-ness would wear very thin very quickly at ND. It works in rural South Carolina.
Ty Willingham and Charlie Weis were cultural fits. As alstein is saying, I’m not sure that’s a good thing.
That’s not the kind of “culture” I’m talking about.
Hell, I’m a PJ Fleck fan. I’m all for flipping the culture of the program. Dabo is a different proposition altogether.
Do the downvoters think that Dabo is a worse coach than Brian Kelly? Or that he’s less likable than Brian Kelly? If so, both of those positions are hard wrong.
The thing I least like about Dabo is his insistence that players shouldn’t be paid, but Father Jenkins has been pretty publicly in that camp as well, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
For the record, while I don’t think he’d work at ND, I didn’t “downvote”–I don’t downvote unless I find something morally objectionable with a post, like someone being a jerk towards another poster.
As I said in my answer to alstein, my disagreement has nothing to do with his coaching skills. I think he’s pretty much proven to be a good coach–he’s a perfect delegater/CEO/recruiter who gets good talent through force of personality and hires good coordinators to do the X’s and O’s. Hard to say anything negative about his results. But he wears his evangelical Southern Baptist-ness on his sleeve, and while I certainly don’t believe being Catholic is a requirement to coach at ND, I’m not sure he’d be comfortable at ND and I’m not sure ND would be comfortable with him.
I think we’re talking past each other a bit here. There is a 0 percent chance he would ever come to ND, especially now. I’m just saying he’s a better coach and way more likable than our current head coach, and it would be more fun to cheer for him than to cheer for BK.
And I’m saying I disagree with the second part of that statement. I know a lot of people who find his aw shucks good ol’ boy personality and overt evangelicalism grating as opposed to likable. As to more fun to cheer for him, if it meant winning, I think the only coaches I’d have personal problems seeing successful at ND would be Urban Meyer, Petrino, or Harbaugh, but I’m pretty sure I’d get over it quickly with Harbaugh.
I’ll agree with KG’s point. I do find his “Opie”-ness quite annoying. It does appear to be genuine, but I just instinctively don’t like it. That being said, if he were at ND and put up the same results as he’s had at Clemson, I’d warm up to him quickly.
It’s not a personality contest. That’s all this sounds like to me. No football coach is going to be universally liked for his demeanor and comments because they’re football coaches and most of them are terrible anyway. I don’t think that makes him a bad “fit”.
Responding to nd09hls12’s comment about being more “likable”–how is that not about personality? He’s asserting that Dabo is more “likable.” I’m pointing out I’ve talked to many people (though not necessarily ND people) who don’t find him likable. Drick is agreeing with that. That’s all based on personality.
Whether he’d be a good coach at ND or not is a separate question altogether. And I think certain elements of our fanbase, and possibly our administration, might take issue with his particular overtly religious stances, as he’s expressed them at Clemson. If he came to ND and toned it down, then I don’t think it would be a problem at all. ND’s not going to have a problem if he thanks Jesus or something after winning a big game. I think they’d have problems with baptizing players into Protestant denominations on campus practice facilities. A lot of people I have talked to find that objectionable at a state school. I can’t imagine it would fly at a Catholic school that actually takes it’s Catholic nature seriously (unlike, say, Georgetown).
I get that something like that isn’t a big deal to you or nd09hls12. It’s not really to me either. I think it would be a big deal to some, and that it wouldn’t be a good cultural fit from either his or the admin’s perspective.
Then shame on ND. If you buy his sincereity in his beliefs, which I do, then how could you not embrace his humility and his belief that god made it all possible. It almost sounds like a bias.
maybe I have just spent too much time in the south.
I’m confused.
I said:
“Sincerity in his beliefs” and “humility and belief that God made it all possible” would fall into the “not going to have a problem if he thanks Jesus.” So I’m not sure where our point of disagreement is here. You don’t think that last part–which he’s done at Clemson (see photo above) would be problematic for the ND administration?
Also, and this is somewhat separate, but even some of us who hold religious beliefs take issue with the thanking of God for winning a football game in post-game comments. For me, it’s all in how it is phrased. I’m fine with thanking the Almighty for the opportunity, or for the journey, or what have you.
I have a problem with outright thanking God for victory over an opponent, as that implies God wants you to win and wanted the other team to lose. That, to me, says “we’re morally superior to you, God loves us more” way more than any Catholics vs. Convicts t-shirt. As Lou said, Jesus doesn’t take sides in a football game, though his mother does. Did God decide that He hates Alabama and therefore exercise divine influence to make Clemson win? Did He reward Dabo’s sincere faith? That would suggest that perhaps someone at Bama is less sincere. It fits with a Calvinist-based religious world view (Clemson is the college football elect?) but I personally don’t think that’s how it all works, and so those sorts of statements bother me. I can see how it bothers someone with different religious beliefs altogether quite a bit more. As fans of a team that for decades had to deal with hateful feelings from opposing fanbases for decades based on ND’s religious beliefs, I think it’s something we should be sensitive to.
I’m not disagreeing with you. I’m stating my distaste with the attitude that a coach that can play by the rules and win, wouldn’t be considered good enough for ND. I pretty much agree with everything you said, I just don’t like it. It seems kind of snobbish to me.
It’s not that he wouldn’t be considered “good enough” and has nothing to do with playing by the rules and winning. I don’t even think the admin would have a problem with his messages of “family” and so on. We’re a religious institution, so they certainly wouldn’t have a problem with team prayers or whatever. But I think if he wore it on his sleeve as much as he does at Clemson, he’d run into problems. I don’t think that’s unreasonable, any more than I think a Catholic football coach at Baylor perhaps shouldn’t be trying to give players communion wine.
I can live with that KG. I love the guy. I love the way he bulldogs his way through life and stands up for his beliefs. I just saw part of a press conference where he calls out Cowherd, whom I detest by the way, for calling Clemson a fraud.
I would post the video, but I’m old and technologically inept.
Cowherd is detestable, and I’d applaud just about anyone who called him out.
Yeah, I find it doofy and annoying, but not enough that I wouldn’t welcome 11/12 wins a year and trips to the playoffs. And a coach’s religious beliefs only matter to me if it becomes an issue/distraction. My point is that I think at ND it would potentially be a distraction, whereas in rural SC, even at a state school, it’s seen as a plus.
He does fit perfectly at Clemson. No doubt about it. Can’t imagine him leaving for anything other than his alma mater, and even that I’m not so sure he would.
I’m with you on both accounts.
Love me some of Dat Boy.
Downvoting because I find a grown man going by an infantile corruption of “Dat Boy” to be morally objectionable.
(Just kidding, not downvoting)
Also, he’s going to be handed the keys to Bama as soon as Saban retires. I’m not sure he’ll take it, but he is a Bama alum and all. There’s no way he’s going anywhere else.
Too bad the ACC is going to have to decline the National Title as we know they would never allow a team to benefit from something so heinous as a pick play. I guess this year’s just goes down as [Vacated] like the 2005 Heisman.
Yeah, that last TD was just like deja vu all over again. Except for the lack of a yellow hankie.
Of course, Bama got away with targeting. Oh, wait, since they don’t wear golden helmets, targeting is ok.
Big 12 refs. Had it been ACC refs….
…yeah, they still wouldn’t have called it.
So, Clemson wins on a pick play…again
Took them 35 years, let’s not wait that long, please.
And the Death Star is destroyed sinalling the beginning of the end of the evil empire. Probably not, but I for one am ready for a new ruler.
Anyone else watching the game last night feel a little depressed about how far we are away from teams like that? Maybe I’m overexxagerating, but those are two really, really good teams.
Hell, that depressed me last year, when we were “2 plays away” from the playoff or whatever we told ourselves.
Yes and no. I’m bummed we’re not near that level, but at the same time stories like Clemson remind me that we’re only one good hire away from returning to the promised land.
And you don’t necessarily know who what hire will be. Most people thought Clemson was nuts for taking the interim tag off of Dabo.
Sort of, I guess. Our game with Clemson last year was no fluke – we were legitimately two points away from them. Herbie couldn’t talk enough about how he was pleasantly surprised that we were a match athletically for Clemson.
Far away from them as a program? Absolutely, I agree completely there. I don’t know if we can ever get to that level as a program within the current college football structure, but we’re certainly nowhere near even “occasional reload” level. Maybe in a couple of seasons if all of Kelly’s changes work, or maybe another year past that if he flops and we make a home run hire.
Clemson turtled with the lead in bad weather. Our guys deserve credit for fighting back, but you cannot convince me that in a good weather game, when one team isn’t trying to merely protect a lead and goes conservative, that we’d have been within 2 points of them. Or, more to the actual point–even if our game was an accurate reflection of where we were against them in September (early October? I can’t remember), they improved significantly between then and the playoffs. We would not have been as close in a semi-final game.
It seems like a land of hypotheticals. Clemson did go conservative, but maybe if it’s a semi-final game (neutral site) and not a night home-game (where they have a huge edge) they don’t get that lead in the first place. Who’s to say? (Of course, this is all talking 2015 team, obviously the two teams and programs are worlds away in 2016).
I do concur with Brendan’s point that it did show the gap between where the two programs are in general.
Isn’t that gap mostly on the DL and QB though (maybe CB)?
You don’t have to be Bama if you just have a top 5 QB (real easy right?). It’s much easier to recruit and develop a QB then it would be to recruit and develop a suffocating defense and power running game with a playmaker or two on O. Being able to put up 35 points on Bama makes up for a lot of “sins.” (The QB arguable we had last year – not so much this year even though the same guy, and that made a ton of difference.)
And Clemson’s DL (maybe better last year, but still) causes a lot more havoc than we could dream of.
I agree. Look at both Clemson and Bama, and what stands out more than anything to me is the skill and depth on D-line. Both of them have FRESHMEN making impacts, and lose guys to the NFL only to reload on D-line. Really hard to compete with that.
Yep, we have to recruit batter on the d-line. We just haven’t had the horses to compete at that level for a long time.