Alabama and Ohio State are wrestling for the recruiting championship but it won’t be the Buckeyes participating on the field for the National Championship. Following one of the best wins in recent years, Clemson comes storming back for another title shot in a re-match of last year’s championship game.

Clemson (+6.5) vs. Alabama
Monday, January 9, 2017
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN

Who Are You (#1 Alabama 14-0)

The Tide faced a challenging opening to their 2016 schedule and kicked the door down with a 46-point beat down of eventual Rose Bowl champion USC. They swatted away a sneaky-good Western Kentucky game then overcame a possible third straight upset to Ole Miss only to cruise in the second half after a big comeback.

Since week 3, Alabama hasn’t really been challenged. Kent State and Kentucky were both blown out, as was Arkansas who piled on a bunch of garbage time points.

Point Differential: +391
Rushing Average: 5.71 YPC
Yards Per Play Differential: +2.66
F/+ Rating: #1
S&P Offense: #9
S&P Defense: #1
FEI Offense: #17
FEI Defense: #1

The next three game stretch looked like an upset could be lurking. Then, Tennessee was destroyed, A&M calmly dispatched, and Alabama slowly ground LSU to dust with a 10-0 shutout victory. Mississippi State and Chattanooga were demolished by a combined 82-6, and while the Iron Bowl was entertaining for a brief amount of time, the Tide won that by 18 points.

Florida scored first in the SEC Title Game then lost by 38 points. In the CFB semi-final Washington also scored first but were shutout the rest of the way in a not-so-close 24-7 loss. Alabama comes into the National Championship riding a 26-game win streak, tied for the 18th longest in NCAA history.

Who Are You (#3 Clemson 13-1)

Clemson’s run to the title game has been far more rocky but they are peaking at the right time. The Tigers gutted out a tough road win at Auburn 19-13 to open the season and struggled with a sneaky good Troy team. Interestingly, both Alabama and Clemson opened the season with major bowl opponents and very good Group of 5 opponents. The Tigers got on track with an easy 59-0 win over South Carolina State.

Georgia Tech didn’t pose much of a challenge but Louisville did in one of the season’s best games that Clemson took by 6 points on their home field. On the road, Boston College was dominated in every facet by 46 points.

Point Differential: +314
Rushing Average: 4.47 YPC
Yards Per Play Differential: +1.72
F/+ Rating: #2
S&P Offense: #6
S&P Defense: #6
FEI Offense: #8
FEI Defense: #9

Mid-October questions began popping up as Clemson barely beat NC State and did the same against Florida State. They did destroy Syracuse 54-0 but were upset at home by Pittsburgh in mid-November.

However, Clemson wasn’t ever really in trouble of missing the ACC Title Game, and thus, a likely spot in the playoffs. They finished up beating Wake Forest and South Carolina by a combined 91-20 and always had the ACC Title Game in hand with a 42-35 win over Virginia Tech. The Tigers’ 31-0 victory over Ohio State in the playoff semi-final handed Urban Meyer the first shutout of his career.

Clemson heads into the title game winning 30 out of their last 32 games.

Top 3 Story Lines

Firing Lane Kiffin

A distracted Lane Kiffin (he accepted the FAU job on December 13th a mere 18 days before the semi-finals) was always going to be a huge story line, and potentially season imploding one at that, for the Crimson Tide. Despite only 14 passes and 50 runs the cries that running back Bo Scarborough wasn’t getting enough carries (season-high 19 attempts, by the way) and an inept passing offense (57 yards) fueled Saban’s decision to move on from their offensive coordinator.

In steps another former USC head coach Steve Sarkisian who was hired on September 5, 2016 as a special assistant to the offense. It might be the bold change Alabama needs or something to completely blow up in their faces on the game’s biggest stage.

Clemson’s Revenge

I was watching a college football program this past Friday while home on a snow day. One of the pundits was saying that Clemson needs to win this game because they aren’t elite until they get some hardware. Keep in mind, the Tigers have won 2 straight ACC titles (3 overall under Swinney), 5 straight bowl games, and 3 major bowl games in recent years in addition to two straight National Championship appearances.

Clemson is clearly elite but since 2012 (when Swinney really kicked the program into gear) the Tigers are tied for 3rd nationally in winning percentage with Florida State and only behind Alabama and Ohio State. All 3 other programs have won a title within this time frame. While the Clemson program remains on solid foundation you never know what the future brings. Another loss to Alabama and a missed opportunity at the big ring could be heartbreaking but also offers a ton of reason to fight tooth and nail for a win.

Saban’s Chase for History

Most expected a Saban vs. Meyer rematch from the 2015 semifinals but now Urban takes a back seat in the chase for history. Now 6 losses in 5 years for Meyer, sorry man.

With a win tonight, Nick Saban can put down a historical hammer with long-lasting reverberations.

A defeat of Clemson gives Saban his 5th National Championship at Alabama, and his 6th title overall over his last 12 seasons in college football. No matter how well you recruit this is insane.

Over/Under: 50.5 Total Points

These teams combined for 85 points last year so this is a massive change in the over/under. Interestingly, the Clemson offense was supposed to be better than last year although that hasn’t exactly panned out. Their 4.47 rushing average (tied for 62nd nationally with Notre Dame and Cal) against an Alabama defense giving up only 2.0 yards per rush (best in the country by almost a full yard!) is a red flag that the Tigers might struggle to get 20 points.

Taking the under is a safe bet, especially with Alabama’s true freshman quarterbacks struggles through the air in the semi-final. Then again, almost 10 of the Tide’s 39.4 points per game are the direct result of special teams or defensive touchdowns. Deshaun Watson has 17 interceptions this year, so maybe take the over!

Player to Watch: Clemson TE Jordan Leggett

Saban knows how to gameplan against receivers better than anybody but the tight end position is always a little more tricky. Leggett is only 4th on Clemson in overall receptions but his catch average (16.44) is second among their top pass-catchers. What’s more, his 78 yards in the game last year against Alabama are his second most in his career.

Alabama Scapegoat If They Lose (Besides Kiffin/Sarkisian): WR Gehrig Dieter

From Washington High School less than 6 miles from Notre Dame’s campus, Dieter has been on quite the journey throughout his career. He totaled more than 2,000 receiving yards as a high school senior but curiously signed with SMU where he’d transfer following a freshman campaign with 10 receptions.

At Bowling Green, Dieter caught 129 passes in 2 years and decided to grad transfer to Alabama this past off-season. He isn’t a huge part of the Tide offense (15 receptions) but he was targeted often in the semi-final with only 1 catch. If that repeats itself in an Alabama loss Lord help this kid.

Game MVP: Alabama LB Tim Williams

There are bigger and more popular names on the Tide defense like Jonathan Allen, Reuben Foster, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Yet, Williams is another freak beast who is set up perfectly to have a huge game at his JACK (think Diaco’s old CAT position) position on the edge.

I’m not even talking about a breakout game, either. Williams has just 21 solo tackles on the year but within that he has 16 TFL, 9 sacks, and 12 quarterback hurries.

Prediction Time

I love the revenge factor in this game for Clemson as these big games tend to even out under normal circumstances. Alabama can’t possibly win all the time, right? These aren’t normal circumstances, though.

Deshaun Watson is going to need an enormous game. He’s capable, no doubt. Watson should go over 10,000 career passing yards in the title game and comes in with 112 overall touchdowns in less than 3 full seasons. The way Clemson demolished Ohio State may lead one to believe he’s ready to topple the Crimson Tide.

However, Watson didn’t really play great against the Buckeyes (316 total yards, 3 TD, 2 INT). Sure, you can win a lot of games with that type of quarterback production but that might not be enough against Alabama.

A while back I wrote a piece on Alabama 2016 being in contention as the best team ever. Their defense belongs in that discussion and is up there with Saban’s 2011 unit that allowed only 106 points in 13 games, no Power 5 team scored more than 14 points against, and finished with a ridiculous 3.32 YPP defense.

This Crimson Tide offense is highly suspect when put up against the greatest ever. Something is troubling about a true freshman quarterback doing all of this. It just seems like–with the Kiffin fiasco–that it will make so much sense if Alabama finally lays a huge egg on offense and Dabo Swinney runs away with his sought after National Championship.

Bottom line, I can’t pick against this Tide defense and let’s be clear they’re still really good on offense too.

Clemson 18

Alabama 27