Folks, gather around for another game preview of the Navy Midshipmen. In keeping with tradition, this will be my shortest and most concise game preview of the season because, well, Navy is not very exciting and there isn’t much to talk about.
At this point, it’s safe to say Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo is a lifer at the school. Outside a brief stint at UNLV for a few years, he’s been a coach in some capacity at Navy since 1995 and is finishing up his 15th season as head coach in Annapolis.
Notre Dame (-15.5) vs. Navy
M&T Stadium
Baltimore, Maryland
Date: Saturday, November 12, 2022
Time: Noon ET
TV: ABC
Series: 80-13-1 Notre Dame
Niumatalolo has brought Navy to some impressive peaks in the recent past but has been going through some very rough times since the 2020 Covid year. In nearly 3 full seasons, the Middies have a 0.322 winning percentage with wins over Temple (3x), Tulsa (2x), East Carolina (2x), Army, UCF, and Tulane.
Navy’s Offense
The Naval Academy is in its 3rd year of having their offense be a bit of a mess–not ideal for a triple option scheme dependent on having a competitive advantage over bigger, faster, and more talented teams throughout the country.
Things sunk so low last year that Ken Niumatalolo fired long-time offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper, only to reverse course 2 days later and keep Jasper on as quarterbacks coach “only.” However, it’s believed Coach N. and Jasper are still working together in the OC role, though.
The Middies also had to go through an off-season rebuilding their roster after 3 offensive linemen, 2 fullbacks, 2 slotbacks, and 1 wide receiver graduated after starting or playing key roles in 2021.
On the line, junior right guard Josh Pena (6-2, 286) and senior right tackle Kip Frankland (6-1, 306) return as starters with junior left tackle Sam Glover (6-3, 265), sophomore left guard Connor McMahon (6-3, 262), and junior center Lirion Murtezi (6-3, 315) moving into starting roles in 2022.
Junior wideout Jay Umbarger and senior Mark Walker have combined for 52 receptions and 738 yards in their careers offering decent stats on the outside.
Navy had to re-load pretty much their entire backfield as the top 5 rushers from 2021 (including quarterback Tai Lavatai, see below) are gone. A trio of sophomore fullbacks are getting 30.5 carries per game with Daba Fofana (502 yards on 140 attempts this year) by far carrying the ball more than anyone else in the offense.
New rule for 2022: Navy can’t cut block outside the tackle box and it’s nerfed their running game.
Sophomore slotbacks Maquel Haywood and Vincent Terrell are getting the ball roughly 7 and 6 times per game, respectively with the former averaging nearly double the yards per carry.
As mentioned above, quarterback Tai Lavatai is not playing after suffering a knee injury against Temple a couple weeks ago. Instead, Navy has turned to junior Xavier Arline who has now started 6 games in his career, and faced Notre Dame last year after Lavatai left that game with a shoulder injury. Arline is very small (5-9, 176) and has never offered a strong enough running threat (577 yards at 3.5 per carry for his career) to hold down the starting job.
In a bit of desperation (or perhaps to give Notre Dame something extra to work on through film) Navy inserted senior Massai Maynor last week in the 2nd series of the 2nd half against Cincinnati. He completed passes of 31 and 32 yards in relief but was poor on the ground with -9 yards on 6 carries.
Navy’s Defense
Without the advantage of big bodies up front, Navy are continuing their 3-4 scheme in defensive coordinator Brian Newberry’s 4th year with the program.
Heading into 2022 they really missed linebacker Diego Fagot (282 tackles, 35.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks in his career) plus they had to break in a pair of new starters at corner. Otherwise, Newberry has been working with a pretty veteran group.
Junior defensive end Jacob Busic (6-4, 256) is having a nice year with 6 sacks. Fellow junior Donald Berniard (6-0, 256) is trying his best holding things down in the middle as the technical nose guard while playing next to the much larger sophomore defensive tackle Clay Cromwell (6-3, 292). Those 2 interior guys have combined for 9 tackles for loss, not too shabby.
Navy are looking more like the pre-Paul Johnson era program again.
As usual, Navy is putting a lot on their linebackers’ plates. Senior John Marshall (6-2, 209) and senior Nicolas Straw (6-2, 230) both return after starting in 2021 while sophomore Colin Ramos (5-11, 205) and junior Will Harbour (6-1, 230) played enough last year with some starting experience, too.
Obviously, this is a very small front 7 for Navy and especially after the last 2 weeks Notre Dame is going to feel like they should push the Middies around in the run game.
However, Navy’s defense is only seeing 27.67 rushing attempts per game, 2nd fewest in the country. They’re 13th best in rushing average allowed and have only surrendered 5 touchdowns on the ground all season.
They do have new corners starting this year in sophomore Elias Larry (6-0, 186) and sophomore Mbiti Williams (5-9, 180). And while junior safety Eavan Gibbons (5-10, 199) and sophomore Rayuan Lane (5-11, 197) combined for 13 starts in 2021 this is still a fairly weak secondary prone to giving up big plays through the air.
Coming into the weekend, Navy ranks 118th nationally and 127th nationally in passing plays of 20+ yards and 30+ yards allowed, respectively. In terms of passer rating allowed, they are 123rd nationally, a bit worse than BYU (114th), UNC (104th), and California (103rd) where Drew Pyne finished a combined 63 of 85 (74.1%) for 701 yards, 8 TD, and 1 INT.
Prediction
Since I’m a broken Notre Dame fan, and thus a true Notre Dame fan, we have 2 glaringly obvious issues with this weekend’s game.
1) This is checking every box as a major hangover game.
The Irish are coming off a huge and emotionally draining win. Having to pick things up this week and travel to Baltimore, in a sterile NFL stadium, to face this weird and sad Navy team should give everyone negative trillion hype. I am expecting a lot of rust and frustration, plus the team to lack sharpness. I would be very shocked if Notre Dame came out and breezed through the early stages of the game to build a big lead–always a crucial aspect to making this an easy win over Navy.
2) Navy’s defense could be dominated through the air.
Time to let Pyne air it out, baby! I’m really interested to see if Notre Dame and Tommy Rees stick to their strengths of running the ball heavily and going right at Navy’s best defensive strength, too. The easy thing to do is just let Pyne keep handing off but you do run the risk of really shrinking possessions (Navy opponents are averaging 59 plays per game) and making things artificially tight. Especially since the Irish run game simply cannot break long and explosive runs.
Notre Dame should be fine on defense. The Middies had been trying to throw a little more in 2022 (12 attempts per game!) and without Lavatai those hopes through the air are dashed. They are now so reliant on pounding it up the middle with the fullbacks and haven’t been very potent running on the edges with the quarterback or slotbacks. I’d expect the Irish secondary players to really play well coming down and making tackles.
I’m guessing we’ll see 8 total possessions for the Irish with 3 touchdowns, 2 field goals, and 3 punts.
Rumor was that Clemson quickly tired of tackling Estime. I think Navy will too. I’m seeing a couple long TD’s from play action and an easy 34- 6 victory.
i think rees said it best “they don’t want this kind of game”
This week, Mayer should play the role that Estime played last week — throw to him until Navy proves they can stop it. I doubt there is anyone on Navy’s defense who can cover him. I also think Golden’s tendency toward aggression will pay off here.
Scary for a while but ends up 30-17 ND.
win one for the robert blanton!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i just can’t see Navy’s offense being able to do much (and Freeman’s experience against them while in the AAC will pay off here) and i do not believe in a single player on navy’s roster to stop estime/diggs/tyree
ND 31
Navy 6
Time for a shutout! The defense has been carrying this team (albeit inconsistently). Today (well tomorrow) is the day that they get the glory. We only get 7 real possessions (plus 1 running out the clock in each half), all end in FG attempts, 15-0 ND.
An anniversary, of sort, for Tommy Rees, suspended ten years ago for the opener against Navy in Dublin. Delayed return to Aviva for him due to Covid. Maybe next year.
Until Pyne can learn to throw accurately rolling out to his left, TR should design rollouts to the right to minimize any height disadvantage and hesitancy to throw over the middle.
I’d also like to see a Navy-esque play with a guard pulling, the fulllback crashing/blocking up the middle, and a toss to the halfback in a gangster sweep. All hands to port – or starboard.
Finally, short passes in the flat to Tyree and/or Lenzy. TEs clear the decks.
Prayers for Angelius in the second half.
What scares me is that navy will never tire from physical football, they will tackle all 4 quarters, so I’m not sure how much “imposing your will” can happen.
Also, the way we play now is comparable to service academy football at a high level: run the ball, be physical. Inter-service academy games hit the under at like 85%+ of the time, which increases the opportunity for fluke plays to have an impact. This is me being totally pessimistic about play navy, I hope we can grind them into past.
21-7 go irish!
Estime weighs more than their linebackers. Give him the ball 20 times and see if they “never tire from physical football.”
Much as I dislike it when ND plays the service academies, one thing you can guarantee is that they never quit, they never get tired. I have seen a number of games against the service academies (I have seen us play all three in person), and I’ve never seen them give up. The very first time I ever saw ND play Army, we got up big on them quickly and late in the 4th quarter, they were still playing their hearts out. They truly live play by play, not game by game.
Much as I’d like to hear that Estime and Diggs wear them out, it ain’t happening.
Get real. They’re not supermen. ND’s record vs. Navy is 80-13-1. Sure they’ll play their asses off but, they’ve been worn out plenty of times.
This is a tad harsh.
I also have seen lots of games with the academies. The nuance where Cubsfan has it right is, they may get worn down, but they never ever quit. And on Veteran’s Day, we can all be happy about that.
Luckily for us, they have a better record vs enemies of the USA than they do against ND in football.
Yeah, I didn’t mean we’d lose. However, I’d be shocked if they started playing matador defense with Diggs and Estime. As pointed out by More Noise, it’s a good thing that those guys never give up.
And by the way, other than the service they render the country, I’m not a big fan of this game or of the service academies. The rudest I’ve ever seen opposing fans is at the Air Force Academy. I’d rather not play them as often as we do.
SERIES RESULTS SINCE 20002021 – Notre Dame 34, Navy 6
2019 – Notre Dame 52, Navy 20
2018 – Notre Dame 44, Navy 22
2017 – Notre Dame 24, Navy 17
2016 – Navy 28, Notre Dame 27
2015 – Notre Dame 41, Navy 24
2014 – Notre Dame 49, Navy 39
2013 – Notre Dame 38, Navy 34
2012 – Notre Dame 50, Navy 10
2011 – Notre Dame 56, Navy 14
ND scores plenty, matadors or not.
I’ve been to plenty of games vs. Navy and have never seen anything out of line from their fans. I can’t speak of the AF crowd.
Assuming the offense is doing even just OK, I’d like to see ND be aggressive about going for it on fourth down tomorrow. Punting to Navy is basically never a good idea — even in the best-case scenario (Navy comes away with 0 points), they’re still going to waste 5 minutes going 20 yards.
The scheme of the option doesn’t worry me too much, but the game management aspect of playing Navy does. We definitely do not want to get sucked into a 2016-type game where we get the ball once a quarter and suddenly there’s not enough time left to get a TD and a FG.
Especially since our FG kicker seems to be struggling!
Echo the concerns about game scheme. Freeman seems very old school in the “we’ll play to our strengths of running the ball and make them stop us from doing it, no need to do much else” type of offensive mindset right now. Given what he has at QB and WR, perhaps by necessity.
But I do agree with Eric and the other commenters that it would be wise to at least get some distance first. Make it 17-3 or something by stretching them through the air, and then sure, take the air out of the ball when you’re up 2+ possessions and have the ball. Pyne, Lenzy, Styles (if he can hold the ball) and Thomas should all be better players than their counterparts, to say nothing of Mayer. Let those guys make plays and then take the air out of the ball. Would hate to look up deep in the second quarter and it’s like a 10-7 game because the ground game is not quite on track but time flies by and Navy hangs around. That’s when a mistake or something bad can cause a lot of trouble, as we’ve seen over the years.
I know this is not a recruiting thread and I don’t want to totally hijack it, so I’ll drop a prediction as well. I think we do a good mix of run domination and a few chunk pass plays via play action and then coast to a reasonable victory. Let’s go 31-10.
I saw on a 247 article that Michigan State and Dante Moore may be having some mutual interest and the thought is that Dan Lanning going (or at least potentially going) to Auburn may open the door a bit for other programs to reignite some interest.
I’ve not heard any word about this being the case with ND getting back into the Moore sweepstakes but if NIL is what largely drove Moore to Oregon then maybe ND just can’t get back into the game but seems strange to me that Michigan State is being viewed as a possibility. I mean if MSU, then why not ND?
Anyways, just wishful thinking on my part because at this point it seems like we won’t get a ’23 QB and will just be hitting up the portal.
We should hit the portal even if they sign Dante Moore (which is extremely unlikely).
But, the weird thing is why there is this fatalism about ND just not being leaders in NIL. Why in the world do we have to accept that? We’re ND; there’s gold in the dome paint and a #1 sign on a dorm etc. etc., with a well-off alumni base. I don’t see why we aren’t milking that for all it’s worth.
Two things hold us back. First, we won’t guarantee a commit a certain amount of money to just sign with us. ND is taking the approach of we can do lots of stuff for you in NIL but we can’t guarantee you money before you are even a student. Second, it seems the focus is to spread the wealth around and make sure each player gets something and then some of course are going above and beyond that.
Also, I think ND is hesitant to really promote NIL because they want alumni to give to the university and they are afraid if you use your money to support the player collective that you won’t then give to the academic fundraisers.
Yep. On the other hand, we have big time expertise (Mendoza, FTT, etc. plus the savoir faire of our many successful grads) which can help our student athletes set up NIL venture that make business sense. I think I saw Marcus Freeman hint at that. But of course some of that approach is delayed gratification.
In other words, it’s not like we’re doing nothing in NIL. Just not open bidding with huge sums of cash. Which btw I think is gonna get regulated…
Agreed. I think that it will eventually get regulated and I also think that it may result in some athletes being jaded about the big promises that are made, especially if they are not being kept.
Jordan Addison was the subject of rumors of NIL deals not being kept and I’m sure his is not the only deal that has fallen through for recruits that are being promised huge sums of money. This to me, in the age of social media, is the biggest reason that NIL potentially will become a bit more self regulated. Word about broken promises can spread so much faster now that hopefully recruits will realize that a situation like Notre Dame’s is actually preferable to a situation like that of Texas A&M.
I certainly agree with all that. I take the points about not making false promises, but we could probably avoid that and still keep up with 95% of the Joneses. It is a choice, and ND choosing to focus on athletic department donations rather than paying football players more directly is a bad choice.