Unless Hurricane Matthew picks up steam and throws a wrench into everyone’s plans, Notre Dame will face North Carolina State during the regular season for the first time ever. Fourteen years after Philip Rivers took down the Irish in the Gator Bowl these two programs meet again.
The Wolfpack are in a weird place right now having played a weak early season schedule and already suffering a frustrating loss to East Carolina. On the surface, 4th-year head coach Dave Doeren seems like he’s approaching hot seat territory as the meat of the ACC games are just around the corner.
Notre Dame (+2.5) at NC State
Wayne Day Family Field at Carter-Finley Stadium
Raleigh, North Carolina
Date: Saturday, October 8, 2016
Kickoff: 12:00 PM ET
Television: ABC
Series: 1-0-0 NC State
And yet, NC State comes into the weekend as a sneaky good team once you dig a little deeper. This is also a rare true road game for the Irish and it could be played under a shower of tropical rain that neuters the explosive passing attack for Notre Dame.
3 Matchups to Watch
NC State’s Offensive Diversity vs. Notre Dame’s Evolving Defense
During our summer preview we pointed out Jaylen Samuels as a player to watch and he is not disappointing with his flexibility and production in 2016. Coming into the weekend the hybrid H-back is excelling with 20 receptions, 86 rushing yards, and 7 total touchdowns. He’ll be a handful to shut down, in addition to NC State using their running backs a lot in the passing game, too.
This should be a challenge for Greg Hudson and the defense as they are coming off a game with Syracuse who was very, very one-dimensional. Barely any attention paid to the running backs and tight ends for the Orange–now the Wolfpack are the exact opposite.
Notre Dame’s Offensive Line vs. NC State’s Defensive Line
I’ll discuss the Wolfpack defensive line below. This could be bad news for Notre Dame because it’s a line that can both get after the quarterback and shut down the run. The history suggests the Irish are going to have their struggles at times during this game.
Everyone vs. Hurricane Matthew
8 p.m. update: #HurricaneMatthew has weakened slightly, but is expected to intensify later tonight and Thursday pic.twitter.com/w6IsRtuCP8
— Miami Herald (@MiamiHerald) October 6, 2016
Earlier in the week things weren’t looking good for the hurricane’s impact on Notre Dame’s visit to Carolina. Along with that came the typical consternation that always makes the rounds. “The game must be moved!” “You can’t mess with lives and play this game!”
Well, the latest projections are a lot friendlier to playing football, and especially keeping everyone safe traveling in the area. It might be as little as 10 mph winds and half an inch of rain.
2 Sides of the Line
NC State had to replace 3 starters from last year and has settled on a top 5 who have played in every game so far. The returning players from 2015 include junior right guard Tony Adams (6-2, 315) and redshirt sophomore right tackle Will Richardson (6-6, 303).
The new left tackle is redshirt sophomore Tyler Jones (6-3, 300) who made a handful of starts last year at left guard and right tackle. Next to him at guard is redshirt sophomore Garrett Bradbury (6-3, 293) while the man working at center is 5th-year senior transfer from South Alabama in Joe Scelfo (6-1, 300).
It’s a little bit of an under-sized line but they’ve been solid so far this season opening up holes for 5.01 yards per rush while only allowing 5 sacks on the season.
The Wolfpack rely mainly on 5 players up front on defense and they will be among the best units Notre Dame will face this season. On the interior junior B.J. Hill (6-4, 300) is a returning starter and plays the nose guard position. Next to him junior Justin Jones (6-2, 312) used the experience he picked up last year in 3 starts to total 14 tackles and 2.0 tackles for loss.
The edges are where NC State really excels. Junior Bradley Chubb (6-4, 275) anchors the strong-side and has 5 tackles for loss and 2 sacks already this season. On the weak-side, former blue-chip recruit and current junior Kentavius Street (6-2, 290) gets the start and has produced 4.5 tackles for loss and 2 sacks. He will share time with another former blue-chip recruit and current sophomore Darian Roseboro (6-4, 280) who has 6.5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks already.
This is an active line that can really get after it and will truly test the Notre Dame offensive line. They’ve also used their size to shut down the run this year allowing just 3.47 yards per rush.
1 Prediction
This wasn’t supposed to be a real difficult game. The advanced stats believed the Wolfpack would be pretty similar to their 2015 self and most observers thought they’d struggle a little moving on from quarterback Jacoby Brissett while replacing a bunch of offensive linemen but the roster overall was in decent enough shape to keep things afloat.
Three new faces really changed the complexion of NC State’s season. First, Eli Drinkwitz came over from Boise State as the new offensive coordinator and he’d later bring in Broncos quarterback transfer Ryan Finley to compete with Jalan McClendon. When center Joe Scelfo transferred over from South Alabama the Wolfpack suddenly had some experience at super important positions.
Finley has grabbed the quarterback competition and played superbly. Within the ACC (where the QB play is out of control good so far in 2016) he’s 3rd in QB rating, 2nd in completion percentage, 5th in yards per attempt, and Finley hasn’t thrown an interception yet.
This has allowed NC State to cut their S&P offense ranking in half from 30th to 15th nationally compared to 2015. Despite a very good defensive line their back 7 on defense hasn’t performed all that well but with this improved offense the Wolfpack have been rolling through 2016 as a better overall team.
As we enter the mid-way point of Brian Kelly’s 7th season one of the recurrences surrounding the program is the futility on the road. In Notre Dame’s last 11 true road games they’ve only won 3 games. Three, ya’ll. That’s not a great sign even if this team was humming along in the midst of a strong season which it is so apparently not right now.
Still, I think there’s a frustration boiling underneath the surface that can’t believe NC State could be this good or even favored to win the game. Pete Sampson over at Irish Illustrated has mentioned it several times over the past several months that Dave Doeren is 0-18 against Power 5 programs who finish with a winning record. That kind of record doesn’t help the reputation much.
The problem for Notre Dame with that stat is that they might not finish with a winning record in 2016.
The Irish are averaging 39.8 points per game which is impressive so far given the personnel losses from last year and the start to this season. This feels like the type of game that’s going to drive that average down a little bit.
It appears that the biggest mismatch of the game is going to be how each team’s respective running game will do against the other’s run defense – that is, I don’t anticipate us to be able to move the ball on the ground well as we haven’t much all year, and it’s only reasonable to expect the ND defensive line to get shoved around a bunch by just about everyone at this point.
Rain isn’t helping our odds.
It’s a lock that if we lose this game at least 5% of the fan base will be calling for dave doeren to be our next coach
Is that like one of those “Sex Panther” statistics? “100% of the time, it’ll happen 5% of the time.”
I was at the last game in Jacksonville in 2003…that was miserable. I’d love to see Kelly show replays of that game to get the team fired up for “revenge.”
I don’t see “revenge” as a big motivating factor for these kids when the last time we played NC State, most of these kids were in kindergarten through third grade.
Yeah. I’m certain they have no idea (or care) about the complete domination we got handed to us. BUT, I’d love to see the staff try something to get the team excited for the game. 13-14 years later, revenge loses its luster, but watching the game again I’m sure would be painful enough.
I’m just glad we won’t be facing Chuck “The Chest” Amato this time.
So glad he’s moved on from coaching and into the field of food entertainment.
E you are bringing me down! Ha. Kidding, I feel very similar about this game. I expect it to be very frustrating to watch. I will be thrilled with a W in any form to get back to .500.
If we lose to this team, I will go from on the fence about firing Kelly to full fire Kelly. Look at NC States garbage schedule. I don’t think any advanced stats performance against such a schedule is meaningful. The defense should keep plays in front of them. The offense should lean on Kizer and ESB. We should win by one score, even allowing for this contained tire fire (thanks, Larz) facing a more balanced offense.
What??
Also, we aren’t favored but a loss in a game you think we should win by one score is the final straw with Kelly?
I think the point is that in year seven of any ND coach we should be significant (10+ point) favorites against a middling NC State team, much less not be underdogs. That’s a reasonable standard.
My point is that NC State really shouldn’t enter the equation to that much of a degree. They aren’t middling at the moment at #25 overall in S&P. It’s strange to draw some line in the sand for this game particularly based off a generic reading of how good NC State is supposed to be.
I don’t think the advanced stats point is entirely off-base – they’ve played William & Mary, East Carolina, Old Dominion, and Wake Forest. They’ve moved the ball on all four teams, but that doesn’t really tell us a whole lot. Their lone loss, East Carolina, just got hammered by Virginia Tech (54-17) and Central Florida (47-29).
That doesn’t mean I think NC State stinks, but I’m not sold on their advanced stats performance either just yet. Obviously we have our own serious problems that can make any offense look great, but what NC State has put on paper so far this year doesn’t necessarily give me the shakes. Not more than any other team would, anyway.
I think this one is a pick ’em. I’d keep my money safely in my pocket if I was at the Golden Nugget.
Take the Irish moneyline +120, that’s value…famous last words.
Improved defense, Kizer, blossoming WRs. Until the new look Irish lose again, I’m going to be optimistic. And then we’ll try to make it 3 straight at home against a wilting Stanford.