Selection Sunday is behind us, and the best 3 weekends in sports are about to be upon us. To get you warmed up for all the upsets and buzzer-beaters, the 18Stripes basketball readers weighed in on various NCAA tournament topics. You know what they say about opinions: everybody has one. Share yours in the comments.
Most Vulnerable 1 Seed
Eric – Villanova – While I won’t be picking them to lose the first weekend, I think Nova’s slow tempo leaves them a little bit vulnerable to an upset, especially to a plodding Wisconsin team that seems underseeded as an 8. With limited possessions, a couple timely buckets by the Badgers could send the defending champs home early.
Alstein – Kansas – I think tough match-ups await in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Miami can hang athletically and have the type of length that could give Kansas fits. So does Purdue as a potential Sweet 16 opponent, but I have my eyes on an Iowa State team that beat Kansas in Lawrence and just won their conference tournament.
Joe – Gonzaga. As much as I enjoy my KenPom subscription, I’m not buying that they’re the best team in the country. Their record is gaudy and they flirted with perfection, but their best win is over Florida way back in November. That seems like 2 lifetimes ago. I know this is pure east coast bias, but I just think the other top seeds have passed far more difficult tests to get there. I’d entertain a discussion of UNC in this slot, but I think the answer is the Zags. They should comfortably get to the 2nd weekend, but I don’t like them against ND or WVa in the S16.
Simon (4ps) – Gonzaga – I’m with Joe here… they barely beat an ISU team that hadn’t put together their best game yet and their win over Arizona was when Trier was still suspended, their starting PG was out with an injury, and Markkanen was still finding his way. Their 3 man backcourt is nice but Sean Miller and crew will have their revenge in the Elite 8 if Brey and his can’t out-execute them in the Sweet 16.
Paddy – Gonzaga. I know this is supposed to be the Zags team that is different and actually has what it takes to make the Final Four. I’m going to have to see it to believe it. I think the Zags are at a genuine disadvantage having to experience such an uptick in competition level when the pressure is the highest. I don’t have them getting past a battle-tested Sweet 16 opponent like ND or West Virginia.
Zibby – I’m going to go with Alstein and his call on Kansas here. Before even getting to the draw each team got, I’m going to start with the fact that on quality alone, Kansas is a step below. Watching them get handled by TCU last week was jarring and it’s not like we haven’t seen Kansas bow out early in years past. Then we get to the draw. Maybe I’m an ACC homer, but if you’re looking for an 8/9 seed that can do damage, I think you want to start with teams who have been tested against elite teams, which means Miami and Virginia Tech. All 4 1-seeds will have a battle in the S16 as the 4 and 5 seeds are solid, but if we’re talking most likely not to make the second weekend, Kansas is your choice.
Sleeper (Not-ND)
Eric – Wichita State – This will probably be popular pick, but the 8th rated team by KenPom looks way underseeded as a 10. There some great narratives with a potential rematch of a classic NCAA Tournament game when top seeded WSU was knocked off by an 8th seeded Kentucky. Obviously the Shockers haven’t played the toughest of schedules, but they’ve lost just one game, to bubble team Illinois State, since December 23rd. If they reach the Sweet 16, they’ll probably face a UCLA team rated 10 spots lower than them by KenPom. It’s not hard to see UCLA getting frustrated by WSU’s defense and slower tempo sending the Shockers rolling into the Elite 8.
Alstein – Iowa State/Nevada – Two choices here: One legitimate Final Four threat that very few are talking about, and one double-digit seed that can easily wind up in the Sweet 16. Now let’s see…ah crap! Yep, they’re playing each other. Eric Musselman’s Wolfpack are the best of a loaded group of 12 seeds and have legitimate NBA draft prospect Cameron Oliver. And the Cyclones just dominated the Big 12 Tournament and have the point guard I would want most this March in Monte Morris. Whoever wins that one will make a lot more noise in this tournament.
Joe – I think Dunk City could win two. FGCU will be motivated, and FSU can be bothered by annoying little small-ball teams. If XRM plays well, it probably won’t matter, but if FGCU can do something in that game, I think they can take down Maryland or Xavier and make for a fun S16 story.
Simon (4ps) – Rhode Island – The Rams can control tempo (and they don’t necessarily mind playing uptempo either) and defend and that may be enough against the Bluejays. Despite the “just happy to be here” vibe they might be allowed to have considering their nearly 20 year absence, Rhode Island will look like the team that beat Cincy, and gave Duke all sorts of fits en route to upsetting Oregon as well.
Paddy – Oklahoma State. The Cowboys rank first in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and I like their odds to do some damage in the Midwest region. After starting 0-6 in the Big 12, they won 9 of their last 13, with all 4 losses being very close to ranked teams. While Michigan may be a sexy pick after their B1G title run, I like their first round opponent to make a run as deep as the Elite 8.
Zibby – These are some good picks above me — I’d second basically every one of them. So as not to duplicate picks, I’ll add in what almost feels like cheating and say Middle Tennessee St. They’re basically a pick’em in the first round with Minnesota and will draw solid but often upset prone Butler in the 2nd round (most likely). I won’t be sad if I get to watch a UNC/MTSU Sweet 16 game that makes Tarheel fans sweat.
Best 1st round game
Alstein – Iowa State vs. Nevada – This is probably an obvious choice given my answer above. Honorable mention: Michigan vs. Oklahoma State. Two top-25 KenPom teams? Derrick Walton versus Juwan Evans? Yes please. Winner will be a legitimate threat to Louisville in round two.
Joe – It isn’t going to be particularly pretty to watch, but the Miami/MSU 8/9 game is pretty intriguing. I don’t think Miami is particularly great, but they’re certainly talented enough to be a threat. On the other side of the coin, does Izzo do with MSU what Boeheim did with Syracuse last year?
Simon (4ps) – I think Michigan vs Okie State is going to be super fun. Both teams happen to be playing some of their best ball now and they just unfortunately have to get through the other. Whoever wins there makes the Sweet 16.
Paddy – It’s not going to grab any headlines, but I will be very intrigued to watch Marquette vs. South Carolina. Marquette is the best 3-point shooting team in the country, which gives them a high point-scoring ceiling. However, they have put up a few stinkers for every Villanova-type upset on their résumé, and Sindarius Thornwell and the tough South Carolina defense will be quite the matchup.
Zibby – I’d love to cheat and say all of the #4/#13 and #5/12 matchups, because literally every one of them has upset potential this year, but we’ll go with Michigan/Oklahoma St. This should be a fun game between high octane offenses (#1 and #5 in KP Adjusted Efficiency), even if Michigan plays much slower than Oklahoma St. The winner draws Louisville and immediately gets penciled in as a possible weekend upset special.
Biggest 1st round upset
Alstein – New Mexico State over Baylor – Betting against Baylor in March seems like a good strategy until they prove otherwise. The Bears only have two good wins since February started and got bounced immediately in the Big 12 Tournament. They must be feeling the weight of the world on them right now. Paul Weir has been a great promotion after Marvin Menzies left the Aggies for UNLV. His team hasn’t lost a whole lot this season and are by far the best 14 seed. Anyone can give you a 12 over 5, but only alstein will give you a (probably incorrect) 14 over 3!
Simon (4ps) – Wake Forest over Cincinnati – I know 11 over 6 isn’t a huge upset but I think most expect MTSU over Minny as the 12 over 5 so I figure picking one of the last four in to beat a 29 win Cincy is upset enough. Hell, Wake might give UCLA a run with the way they can score.
Joe – If FGCU is going to be my sleeper, they’ve got to hit the big one in the first round and take out 3rd seeded FSU. Hey #FSUTWITTER don’t @ me when this turns out to be horribly wrong.
Paddy – I’m grabbing Vermont over Purdue. I was rewarded by picking the Boilermakers to get knocked off in the first round last year, and I think they may be susceptible to a repeat. Vermont hasn’t lost in 2017, and I think they’ll be able to score enough to knock off Caleb Swanigan and Purdue.
Zibby – I’m skeptical about the true longshot upsets this year. By most measures, the 14-16 seeds are weaker than they’ve been in past years and I wouldn’t be shocked if it resulted in no one seeded on the top three lines falling in the 1st round. That said, I think we may make up for it with #12 and #13 seeds winning. For a truly bold call, I’ll take that we get #12 vs. #13 matchups in both the East (ETSU over Florida and UNC-Wilington over Virginia) and Midwest (Vermont and Nevada over Purdue and Iowa St.)
I, for one, am excited to watch all of my predictions turn out horribly wrong but have some team none of us even thought about pull off a miracle.
Let’s get this tournament started!
I’m in a pool this year that awards bonus points for upsets equal to the seed differential. So if an 11 beats a 6, you get the 1 point for picking the game right plus a 5 point bonus. It’s a weird gimmick and it’s basically led me to pick everyone under a 3 seed to get upset. Even if you only hit on one 13 v 4 matchup, that’s worth an extra 9 points, or the same as getting an extra Elite 8 game correct.
I’ve never played this way before so we’ll see if trying to rack up upset bonuses in the first round while going mostly chalk (1s, 2s, and 3s) in the Final Four p(l)ays out.
I like it…
The only actual bracket I usually fill out also does upset rules, but it’s more complex, which leads to me number crunching the hell out of it (surprising no one).
It’s 2/4/7/12/20/32 pts per round as a base, but you also get the round (2-3-4-5-6-7) times the seed.
As a result, a 6 seed getting to the E8 is worth 31 points while a 1 seed is worth 11. A 13 seed getting a win is worth 28 points compared to a 4 seed being worth 10. Key with the bonus being on the seed, not the seed difference is that, and being a multiplier is that it still benefits you late in the tournament to take longshots. Unfortunately that means the guy from Syracuse cleaned up last year…
Haha re Syracuse. I’m sure this format, in a big enough pool, means a guy with the onions big enough to make the homer bracket carrying his home team to the Elite 8 usually ends up placing.
Which I suppose would’ve benefited any of us if we were to have made a homer bracket any of the past two years, but my previous 10 years of experience with Brey just won’t let me do it yet. Picking the Irish to make the Sweet 16 is still ingrained in me as a stupidly optimistic move that can only hurt you, no matter the amount of recent success.
I could see Wake Forest and Rhode Island both making pushes to the Elite 8 as 11 seeds. Of course, Wake has had some trouble in close games this year, so I wouldn’t put much money on them. But I think both teams provide huge matchup problems for their potential opponents. I would very much enjoy watching Louisville play Rhode Island. They aren’t particularly good shooters (normally the type of team Louisville struggles with), but they have pretty good length at their wings, and could be a matchup of two teams built very similarly.
Or Wake could be done in a night. Good thing you held on to that money (I presume).
If you told me Collins was going to shoot 70% from the floor and 8/8 on FTs, I would have definitely put the money down on Wake. How do you only give him 13 shots on a night where he is absolutely dominating? What a horrible coaching job.
Can I interrupt the Men’s NCAA discussion to A: congratulate the women’s team on their #1 seed and B: ask what the #@$# is this? Just checked the women’s bracket. ND is a 1-seed, plays first two rounds at home, which is normal. Sweet 16 & Elite 8 are at Lexington, KY. 4 Seed in the bracket, as the highest seed in their first two games, is Kentucky–playing their first two games at home…in Lexington. Then the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 is on their home court. Meaning ND has to play UK on their home court in the Sweet 16, after UK has had two home games to get there….what? Sure, we’re all playing for the right to lose to UCONN, but come the bleep on, man.
Amen! Hadn’t seen this, KG, merci.
Hi from Huntsville Alabama, btw – US Army’s Global Force Symposium, redolent with memories and even Alabama fans who remember when we beat the Bear 8/9.
Back to Paris today to see the men play Princeton, on prime time!