In Part 1 of our 18Stripes roundtable, we examined the tournament overall. In part two, we tackle how we think our beloved Irish will fare in the big dance. Will Mike Brey’s squad make an early exit or finally reach the promised land? Who will be the guy who breaks out? Who is most important to a deep run? Take a quick read through, then let us know what you think in the comments.
Irish Prediction
Alstein – 2nd round loss to West Virginia – I’m guessing we’re not going to be able to avoid the Mountaineers again. West Virginia is a very, very good team who plays a style that can really disrupt what the Irish like to do. The reverse is, of course, true as well, but I think the Irish will drop a close one in what may very well be the best game of the second round. Hopefully ND can be patient and make WV pay from deep, but I don’t know how much the Irish will be regaining its 3-point stroke from earlier this year. I think West Virginia plays pattycake on the offensive glass (38% ORB%…gulp), which will be enough offense for them to come away with the victory.
Joe – I liked us in the ACCT, and I like us again. The Irish are playing good basketball. If Duke is as crazy awesome and talented as everyone says they are and it took an epicly cold shooting night to get by us, I’m feeling pretty OK. I don’t love opening the whole tournament in a 5/12 game, but if we can get rolling, I like what we could do to WV. This isn’t the first time Brey is seeing Huggins’ defense. You could see point-Bonzie in the most intriguing of 4-5 games of the weekend. After that, things start getting interesting. We’ll then see if I’m right about Gonzaga. Arizona would await, and although every bracket I fill out will have us winning that game and getting to the promised land, that’s probably too much to ask. My head keeps saying every game from here is a coin flip, but my heart keeps checking ticket prices to Phoenix.
Simon (4ps) – Elite 8 loss to Arizona. It’d be a matchup between two coaches and programs who got to the E8 two years ago with a team that was just as good as any in the Final Four that year. I believe it will be an absolutely epic game that ultimately will come down to the talent and depth edge that Sean Miller’s crew has. Between Markkanen, Trier, Alkins, Allen, Simmons, and Ristic… that team has 6 players that are sure NBA draft picks.
Eric – I’ve got the Irish losing to Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. I think I’m higher on the Zags than most here, but I don’t think ND makes it back to the Elite 8. Princeton is a bit of an inferior version of ND with their offense. Rex, TJ, and Onions should be able to lock their shooters down, however, and I don’t see how the Tigers can stop Bonz. I also like the Irish matchup against WVU. Their press tends to give less experienced teams fits, but with the Irish playing 4 ball handlers quite often, I don’t think it will have the desired effects. In the Sweet 16, the Irish fall to the #1 seed in a close loss that ends another successful season.
Paddy – Third straight trip to the Elite 8. The Irish have been been in the same region as West Virginia for 3 straight years now, and I think the two will finally face off this year. West Virginia’s offense is nothing special, and I think the Irish D will be able to handle them on that end. It all comes down to whether you think the Irish will be rattled by their ferocious defense. I just can’t see Matt Farrell failing to face that challenge. I don’t want to underestimate the Zags, but I think the Irish match up well with them. I’ll temper my expectations on anything past the Elite 8, but I think the Irish can hang with any team in their region, and how far they go may come down to some coin flip ends of games.
Zibby – Screw it. I’m with Joe here. My head knows that we’re on upset alert for Thursday and the string of West Virginia, Gonzaga and Arizona is a legitimately tough path, especially since there aren’t many possible tripping points for any of those teams before we would find them. But there’s not a single team that we can’t hang with in this bracket and I’m going to take a pissed off Irish team to make things happen to reach Phoenix. There they quickly find that the East bracket has exploded into a million pieces and SMU awaits. After a clean victory in the Final Four, we again run into tournament nemesis UNC and fall 40 minutes short of the ultimate banner.
CW – Second round loss. I think the Irish will play very well against Princeton and have us all feeling far too confident going into a second-round game with a very good West Virginia team. The Mountaineers muck it up and after two narrow escapes against Butler and Stephen F. Austin, the Irish can’t make it back to the Sweet Sixteen for the third consecutive as we all remember how dang hard this is.
Notre Dame’s Tournament MVP
Alstein – Bonzie Colson – I mean, c’mon. Not only is he the team/ACC’s best player, but he has match-ups that should be very favorable for him in Princeton and potentially West Virginia, which has been susceptible to great interior players like Tyler Davis, Johnathan Motley, and Jarrett Allen and awkwardly-sized ones like Deonte Burton. I don’t love a potential Gonzaga game for him, but I think Bonzie is going to have a monster first weekend for the Irish.
Joe – Bonzie will get the headlines, but I think Steve Vasturia is going to be at his best for as long as the Irish last. His distinguished career with the Irish is going to be capped with steady, clutch performances when his team will need it the most.
Simon (4ps) – Last March turned V.J. into a legit NBA prospect right? Let’s run it back- gotta think the Indy native is highly motivated to recover some of his stock which took a hit this season (especially early in the conference schedule) and get back to looking like the potential 1st round prospect that he looked like a year ago.
Eric – Bonzie. I don’t think Princeton will have seen a guy like him, and he’ll have a big game scoring and on the glass. His rebounding will be super important against WVU, and he’ll respond with another double-double. Even with a loss to Gonzaga, adding a couple more double-doubles will give him Irish honors.
Paddy – Matt Farrell. Farrell has steadily remained the Irish’s 2nd or 3rd leading scorer throughout most of the ACC schedule (in fact, he actually only led the Irish in scoring in a single ACC contest!) I think the ball will be in his hands late in games, and you know he won’t lack the confidence to take the big shot. All season long he has been pegged as a future tournament killer; I think he will realize that destiny this March.
Zibby – Austin Torres! Nah, just kidding. The obvious answer here is Bonzie Colson, who is going to frustrate the hell out of Princeton, but I’ll go with V.J. Beachem who will be locked in and the reason we dismantle West Virginia and Gonzaga.
CW – Just going with the obvious answer and saying Bonzie because I think he is going to absolutely murder Princeton. If the Irish are going to have any chance against the big dudes on West Virginia, Gonzaga or Arizona, he’ll have to put together a virtuoso performance on the glass. The rest of the scoring is too distributed to feel confident taking somebody else.
ND’s Tournament “Breakout” Guy
Alstein – Martinas Geben – Again, match-ups. A team with a Big 4 that does 90% of the work doesn’t really lend itself to a huge breakout star, but Geben will have the opportunity to fill a crucial role. He could exploit a small Princeton team by screening the hell out of them and getting to the basket a few times. He will also definitely be needed against West Virginia to keep them from destroying the Irish on the offensive glass. I think Geben will give the Irish a strong 25 minutes during the first weekend.
Joe – Same as my team projection, I’m sticking with it from the ACCT. I think Matt Ryan is feeling confident and carving out a bigger space in the rotation than he did during the year. Seeing him drive baseline in Brooklyn was surprising enough of a breakout. I’m anxious to see what he pulls out in Buffalo and beyond.
Simon (4ps) – T.J. Gibbs. I think the Brey told him to be ready for a reason. Against Princeton’s small ball roster, he’ll have a role to play; against West Virginia’s pressure he could be called in as an alternate ball-handler and press reliever; against Gonzaga’s skilled 3 guard lineup he may end up being a critical spot minutes defender. Rex shined in his minutes for the Irish last March and this year it may be Gibbs’ turn.
Eric – With how quickly the WVU likes to play, I think Matt Ryan gets some nice run. He’s been contributing beyond launching threes lately, but I think he’s due for a big night behind the arc. ND should generate lots of transition looks after breaking the ‘Eers press, and I’d love to see Ryan knock some down.
Paddy – I’m not sure if Rex Pflueger will have any 10 point scoring performances from here on out, but I think he can have another Stephen F. Austin tip-in moment. His defense will make it hard for Brey to move away from him late in games, and Rex has a knack for being in the midst of the action. I expect Rex to make at least one hard-nosed, game-changing play.
Zibby – My gut instinct was the same as Simon. I think Gibbs could be poised for a big game against West Virginia as a secondary ball handler to deal with the press. He’s been great in chunks of the season, but largely been relegated to spot duty as the defense has locked down over the last few weeks, but he could re-find the starring role this weekend. Honorable mention to Matt Ryan, who I didn’t think should ever see minutes in a competitive ACC game for parts of the year but has acquitted himself nicely down the stretch.
CW – TJ Gibbs. The Princeton game is going to be about perimeter defense, and the freshman can certainly provide that. In addition, I am skeptical whether anyone on the Tigers will be able to stop him from getting to the rim if he puts his foot down and decides to go. Throw in the possibility of draining some threes and how important he would be in a hypothetical matchup against West Virginia’s pressure and depth, and Gibbs is my answer.
So there you have it Irish fans. Where do you fall? Are we primed for a deep run or early exit? Let us know. In the mean time, while you’re waiting for noon tomorrow, fill out your brackets in the 18S group and check out CW’s excellent Rakes Report podcast with an in-depth Princeton preview.
Zibby’s comments made me think of something: Is WV, Gonzaga, Arizona really THAT much tougher to navigate than Virginia, FSU and Duke? We nearly got that task done. I’m going to hate myself if we flame out, but I’m giving in to hope.
If you’re using the basis that WV:Virginia::Gonzaga:FSU::Arizona:Duke, I think you’re wrong. Elite 8 would seem much more feasible if it were WV-AZ-GU, which would be more similar to the VA-FSU-Duke analogy.
[Full disclosure: I am a Gonzaga fan. 8 family members went there AND I know how to correctly pronounce the school’s name]
I wasn’t trying to draw the exact 1:1 analogy of each opponent. I was merely trying to state that the level of competition faced in the ACCT isn’t that far from what we’d see if we’re fortunate enough to get by Princeton.
In the ACCT, the KP ratings of our 3 opponents were 7, 19, and 13. If the Irish win and chalk holds, they would be 5, 1, 21. That’s a pretty significant step up, but not insane. You can have a run in the ACC where you play numbers 7, 13, and 3 over 2 weeks too. This isn’t uncharted territory for these guys.
I also respectfully disagree that the order matters. I don’t view GU any more challenging than Arizona.
I guess I’ll have to respectfully agree with you respectfully disagreeing. And, like they always say, “Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit.”
“but I’m giving in to hope”
It’s about time Joe!
I’m going the opposite way of Joe – I’m pretty worried about Princeton. The Ivies have fared very well in the tournament lately (they have 3 first round upsets in the past four years between Harvard/Yale, with the lone-loss by 2 points to UNC). Even in the fantastic runs the past two years, we’ve played some tight early games – Northeastern two years ago was dicy at times and the Rex tip to beat Stephen F Austin last year.
Other things that give me bad vibes – playing in the first game, playing a team that plays so slowly and keeps possessions down and can possibly minimize talent disadvantages, and like us they don’t really turn it over. Maybe this is the beaten-down fan in me after 4-8 + Falcons SB, but I expect to be in total anxiety as I watch a close game on gamecast while I’m supposed to be giving a presentation.
As CW said in his pod. Anyone who thinks they’re going to sit thru Thursday without a know in their stomach is crazy. I don’t foresee a comfortable anything. This will be a stressful game, but I’m hoping the Irish can prevail.
Right now, I’m feeling 100% confident about this Princeton game. I know once tipoff comes around, I’ll be on the edge of my seat. But, for us to lose, I think all of the following would have to happen:
1) We shoot poorly
2) They shoot well
3) Bonzie’s ankle is seriously injured or he gets into very early foul trouble
Then, maybe, we’re looking at a 50/50 tossup. I watched Princeton’s two Ivy Tourney games; they have nobody who is going to break us down off the dribble. Farrell isn’t going to be getting blown by all game like some opponents do to him. They don’t have a rim protector that is going to swat Farrell/TJ/Steve drives (one of our bigger problems this year). They don’t have anybody who is going to wreak havoc on guards and get 3 or 4 steals. They certainly aren’t going to dominate us in transition. Maybe they outrebound us? But that hasn’t stopped us from winning this year.
I just don’t see it. If our shots aren’t falling early, Brey will put Gibbs in and tell him to get to the rim. If Bonzie gets in foul trouble, Geben should be fine defending against them (and if they go with their smaller lineup, I think Torres or even Ryan should be find guarding on the perimeter). It might be a close one due to a low number of possessions, but I just can’t imagine a scenario where they pull this one out. They don’t have a single starter who is better than one of our starters. That’s usually a necessity for a big upset.
I’ll second what Joe wrote. I think it’s going to be a tight, nervy game for at least a solid chunk of it, especially since the crowd may be very light based on weather and time.
I think we should be able to pull away, but like you cite, we’ve played to tight finishes with basically every team we’ve faced in the tournament the last two years and the Ivys have a track record of being able to hang. I think my confide d’s largely comes from the fact that the recently successful Ivys have notched their wins vs. teams who play “big guys being athletic” basketball. When you think of smart, high hoops IQ basketball, New Mexico, Cincinnati and Baylor (or down-year-UNC) aren’t the teams that come to mind. I’m more hopeful that we play a brand of basketball that can adjust to Princeton better than those teams.
And for DrIck, welcome–what is the correct way to say Gonzaga? “aa-gaa” or “ahh-gah”.
I’ve been here for a while, just changed screen names, in case I ever want to run for office. It’s “aa-gaa,” as in “zig and zag,” not “zig and zahg”